How ready Luke Falk is by the numbers

[Cougatron]

Some people have tossed around the word "unproven" with Luke Falk, and with just showing up at the last of the season that's understandable to assume it because he was so new being thrust into the starting job, but I wanted to see how much experience he has versus Halliday when he first took over as the sole starter.

Luke Falk walked on in 2013 giving him a full year to Redshirt and get accustomed to the offense.
In 2014 his RS Freshmen year he took over the starting job when Halliday went down.

This will actually be Luke Falk's 3rd season inside the program. With two full years 4 games and 3 starts under his belt.

Now when Halliday started in 2012 He was a RS Soph and had missed spring camp recovering from injury. Halliday had Pac 12 experience, but the offense was new to him.

In his first year in the Leach era Halliday started 5 games and split time in other games with Tuel.

He posted the following numbers
Att 291 Comp 152 % 52.2 yds 1878 yds/att 6.5 TDs 15 Ints 13 Rat. 114.52

Not a bad start for a RS Soph learning a new system.

Here's Falk's stats after 4 games as a RS Freshmen

Att. 243 Comp 156 % 64.2 yds 1859 yds/att 7.7 TDs 13 Ints 7 Rat. 140.36

Falk has 12% better comp %, similar yards better yds/att about the same tds and about half as many ints as Halliday did in 2012...starting less games, and throwing about 50 less passes.

So Falk was actually better out the gate then Halliday to start in 2012. Now the offense was totally new to Halliday, but also he was a year older and had Pac 12 game experience,

No matter the experience/ starting point. The results are clear. Falk was better than Halliday in 2012.

So what can we expect in 2015 from Falk?

Halliday posted the following numbers in his first year as the sole starter:

Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

using the Att as a scale I will project his numbers if he doesn't improve at all from what he did in 2014.

Luke Falk Projected 2015:
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7

Now to do his tds and ints I will keep them with the same ratio to attempts in 2014 and just scale them for 2015.

Tadaaaaa
LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

so how does that compare to Halliday in 2013?
Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

Pretty similar but with 900 more yards 2 more tds and 2 less ints. Now this is if Falk improves zero on what he did in 2014. I find that unlikely.

But it's pretty safe to say that QB is not something we need to worry about for next year at all.

 

[GoldenCoug]

Very good and detailed assessment of our current and past QB's who played last season.
Here is what I saw from Luke Falk in the 4 games he played last season.

When he first came in he did not panic and saw the field well. Was able to get to his 3rd read sometimes so that is pretty good for a first time basically in the fire against a good team (USC).
Next against OSU it was beautiful. He was under control almost every play against what was supposed to be a good Oregon State secondary. Checked into more runs in this game than Halliday normally did. Managed the game well and lead the team to a win.

Against ASU he and the team started great. I was in the stands with a friend from ASU and the fans were beside themselves with how WSU was coming in and scoring on their vaunted defense.. Falk played great in the first half but, then ASU made some good adjustments. They changed up their defense and,threw some different looks at Falk. He did not play well in the second half and, ASU came from behind and, ran away with it. Our defense that had played great in the first half kind of fell apart, particularly when Falk threw the interceptions (3 I believe) . In this game Mayle was a beast and, almost impossible for ASU to cover. Falk threw for over 600 yards but, made way too many mistakes.

The finale against UW was a stinker for the entire team. Was UW that much better? Seemed to be on that day but, it was not the team or Falk's finest performance.

That was Falk's season and, it did give something to build on. He is an accurate passer who reads the field well. He has a good handle on running the Air Raid, with a propensity to check into the run more often; so if our O Line play improves we should see a much better running game. I also think Falk has a good enough arm to make most of the throws but, it is not as good as Connor's at least not yet. One thing Falk does much better is put touch on the long ball down the seam. Halliday missed this throw more than he made it but, Falk is very good with this. Falk is also very good with the fade route and, the underneath stuff. Where he is below Connor is the out routes where it really helps if you can put that extra zip on the ball.

Bottom line, I expect we will have improved QB play and, management of the overall Air Raid this season with Falk.

 

[Fab5Coug]

Good post, although I will add, the offense wasn't just new to Halliday in '12, it was new to the entire team. Halliday was operating with an OL, RBs & WRs who were learning the offense as well. Falk entered a much more established situation.

 

[Cougatron]

Good post, although I will add, the offense wasn't just new to Halliday in '12, it was new to the entire team. Halliday was operating with an OL, RBs & WRs who were learning the offense as well. Falk entered a much more established situation.

This is a good point. Falks growth rate should move even faster.

 

[spongebob11]

Some people have tossed around the word "unproven" with Luke Falk, and with just showing up at the last of the season that's understandable to assume it because he was so new being thrust into the starting job, but I wanted to see how much experience he has versus Halliday when he first took over as the sole starter.

Luke Falk walked on in 2013 giving him a full year to Redshirt and get accustomed to the offense.
In 2014 his RS Freshmen year he took over the starting job when Halliday went down.

This will actually be Luke Falk's 3rd season inside the program. With two full years 4 games and 3 starts under his belt.

Now when Halliday started in 2012 He was a RS Soph and had missed spring camp recovering from injury. Halliday had Pac 12 experience, but the offense was new to him.

In his first year in the Leach era Halliday started 5 games and split time in other games with Tuel.

He posted the following numbers
Att 291 Comp 152 % 52.2 yds 1878 yds/att 6.5 TDs 15 Ints 13 Rat. 114.52

Not a bad start for a RS Soph learning a new system.

Here's Falk's stats after 4 games as a RS Freshmen

Att. 243 Comp 156 % 64.2 yds 1859 yds/att 7.7 TDs 13 Ints 7 Rat. 140.36

Falk has 12% better comp %, similar yards better yds/att about the same tds and about half as many ints as Halliday did in 2012...starting less games, and throwing about 50 less passes.

So Falk was actually better out the gate then Halliday to start in 2012. Now the offense was totally new to Halliday, but also he was a year older and had Pac 12 game experience,

No matter the experience/ starting point. The results are clear. Falk was better than Halliday in 2012.

So what can we expect in 2015 from Falk?

Halliday posted the following numbers in his first year as the sole starter:

Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

using the Att as a scale I will project his numbers if he doesn't improve at all from what he did in 2014.

Luke Falk Projected 2015:
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7

Now to do his tds and ints I will keep them with the same ratio to attempts in 2014 and just scale them for 2015.

Tadaaaaa
LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

so how does that compare to Halliday in 2013?
Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

Pretty similar but with 900 more yards 2 more tds and 2 less ints. Now this is if Falk improves zero on what he did in 2014. I find that unlikely.

But it's pretty safe to say that QB is not something we need to worry about for next year at all.

I like Falk much better than Halliday...and I hope Leach will let him continue to make plays with his feet instead of turning him into a statue back there.

If we pass north of 60 times per game,however, I think things will look a lot like the ASU game.

 

[wulffui]

I like Falk much better than Halliday...and I hope Leach will let him continue to make plays with his feet instead of turning him into a statue back there.

If we pass north of 60 times per game,however, I think things will look a lot like the ASU game.

Leach inherited a statue. He never had the same footwork after the liver injury, so it was good to see that with a more mobile QB, runs would be more part of the game plan.

 

[spongebob11]

Leach inherited a statue. He never had the same footwork after the liver injury, so it was good to see that with a more mobile QB, runs would be more part of the game plan.

Tuel was a statue?

 

[SaveFerris]

Tuel was a statue?

Tuel had happy feet. Who could blame him with the line in front of him?

 

[wulffui]

Tuel was a statue?

Were you talking about Tuel? Did Leach recruit Halliday?

 

[spongebob11]

Tuel was a statue?

My understanding is that Leach doesn't like his qb's to take off.

Falk was kind thrown in there and playing with his instict.. Which is good. We'll see if Leach coaches it out of him or not

 

[YakiCoug]

This is a good point. Falks growth rate should move even faster.

The axiom asserting that the game is won in the trenches is applicable to nearly all quarterback successes and failures. Falk will continue to grow and succeed as his line improves. This is not a radical position. His performance against Oregon State was exemplary, and he had WSU in a great position going into the 4th quarter of the ASU game (down only 28-24), but injuries/illnesses on the O-line took their toll in that game and the AC. Still, a Falk-directed offense outgained the huskies in the first half but failed to convert three 4th-down conversions in UW territory. WSU trailed 14-0 at halftime. Losses are always disappointing (losing the AC 11 out of 14 times under Price, especially in every one of those magical 10-win seasons - the last under Doba - remains a thorn in the side of most Cougar fans), but never has a redshirt freshman QB put up the numbers Falk did in his three games last year.
A more mature and experienced O-line, the return of Marks, Williams, Cracraft, Baker, and Bartolone, and the rise of newcomers (Lilenthal, Green, Ware) are reasons to be optimistic.

 

[Coug1990]

Some people have tossed around the word "unproven" with Luke Falk, and with just showing up at the last of the season that's understandable to assume it because he was so new being thrust into the starting job, but I wanted to see how much experience he has versus Halliday when he first took over as the sole starter.

Luke Falk walked on in 2013 giving him a full year to Redshirt and get accustomed to the offense.
In 2014 his RS Freshmen year he took over the starting job when Halliday went down.

This will actually be Luke Falk's 3rd season inside the program. With two full years 4 games and 3 starts under his belt.

Now when Halliday started in 2012 He was a RS Soph and had missed spring camp recovering from injury. Halliday had Pac 12 experience, but the offense was new to him.

In his first year in the Leach era Halliday started 5 games and split time in other games with Tuel.

He posted the following numbers
Att 291 Comp 152 % 52.2 yds 1878 yds/att 6.5 TDs 15 Ints 13 Rat. 114.52

Not a bad start for a RS Soph learning a new system.

Here's Falk's stats after 4 games as a RS Freshmen

Att. 243 Comp 156 % 64.2 yds 1859 yds/att 7.7 TDs 13 Ints 7 Rat. 140.36

Falk has 12% better comp %, similar yards better yds/att about the same tds and about half as many ints as Halliday did in 2012...starting less games, and throwing about 50 less passes.

So Falk was actually better out the gate then Halliday to start in 2012. Now the offense was totally new to Halliday, but also he was a year older and had Pac 12 game experience,

No matter the experience/ starting point. The results are clear. Falk was better than Halliday in 2012.

So what can we expect in 2015 from Falk?

Halliday posted the following numbers in his first year as the sole starter:

Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

using the Att as a scale I will project his numbers if he doesn't improve at all from what he did in 2014.

Luke Falk Projected 2015:
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7

Now to do his tds and ints I will keep them with the same ratio to attempts in 2014 and just scale them for 2015.

Tadaaaaa
LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

so how does that compare to Halliday in 2013?
Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

Pretty similar but with 900 more yards 2 more tds and 2 less ints. Now this is if Falk improves zero on what he did in 2014. I find that unlikely.

But it's pretty safe to say that QB is not something we need to worry about for next year at all.

Graham Harrell had 55 passing attempts his freshman year. His sophomore year was his first year as a starter and he was 412 of 617 (66.8%), 4555 yards, 38 TD's, 11 int's and a rating of 145.5. Falk has so much more experience than Harrell and it is not close.

WSU has a good pass protection line, experienced receivers and improving RB's. I think the offense is underrated by the media coming into this year.

 

[Coug1990]

My understanding is that Leach doesn't like his qb's to take off.

Falk was kind thrown in there and playing with his instict.. Which is good. We'll see if Leach coaches it out of him or not

The Air Raid is not Oregon's spread option. You will never see QB's in his system run much. The QB should have the ball out before there is much need for him to run.

If it makes you happy, a former QB of Leach's at TT, Graham Harrell, had two rushing TD's as a sophomore, 4 as a junior, and 6 as a senior.

 

[spongebob11]

Tuel had happy feet. Who could blame him with the line in front of him?

Can't blame him one bit.

He took off a lot more befor

The Air Raid is not Oregon's spread option. You will never see QB's in his system run much. The QB should have the ball out before there is much need for him to run.

If it makes you happy, a former QB of Leach's at TT, Graham Harrell, had two rushing TD's as a sophomore, 4 as a junior, and 6 as a senior.

I realize that. I would rather him take off and get 5 yds if its there, as it often will be, and keep the chains moving than throw and incomplete pass.

He did a good job of that. It's called taking what the defense gives you. I see nothing wrong with that.

 

[Coug1990]

Can't blame him one bit.

He took off a lot more befor

I realize that. I would rather him take off and get 5 yds if its there, as it often will be, and keep the chains moving than throw and incomplete pass.

He did a good job of that. It's called taking what the defense gives you. I see nothing wrong with that.

That is fair enough. Hopefully, the offense clicks as it did when Leach was in Lubbock and there will not be too much a need to run. But, when a lane is open, I see no reason why a mobile QB like Falk cannot take advantage.

 

[YakiCoug]

That is fair enough. Hopefully, the offense clicks as it did when Leach was in Lubbock and there will not be too much a need to run. But, when a lane is open, I see no reason why a mobile QB like Falk cannot take advantage.

When WSU beat Oregon State last season, I was among the first to say that Falk's decision to run for short to moderate gains should be a part of the offense, and this he has enough mobility to keep defenses guessing. With Bender and Hilinski even more mobile than Falk, it makes sense for WSU to include QB keepers as part of the offense.

 

[Coug1990]

When WSU beat Oregon State last season, I was among the first to say that Falk's decision to run for short to moderate gains should be a part of the offense, and this he has enough mobility to keep defenses guessing. With Bender and Hilinski even more mobile than Falk, it makes sense for WSU to include QB keepers as part of the offense.

To a degree. But, when you see the video's of how fast Harrell and other Leach QB's at TT got rid of the ball, it was amazing. I still do not think the offense is as smooth as it will be in the coming years.

 

[YakiCoug]

To a degree. But, when you see the video's of how fast Harrell and other Leach QB's at TT got rid of the ball, it was amazing. I still do not think the offense is as smooth as it will be in the coming years.

Bender, right now, appears to be THAT guy. He's got a great release and probably the best one WSU has seen outside of Gesser's.

 

[Cougatron]

Bender, right now, appears to be THAT guy. He's got a great release and probably the best one WSU has seen outside of Gesser's.

He throws an excellent ball. The only thing holding him back right now is the decision making. He still is making some freshmen misreads on a few things, but once he cleans that up he will be very hard to deny the starting role.

 

[MikeFingLeach]

I'm looking forward to our QB not sacking himself. How many times did Halliday run out of bounds and take a 3 yard loss. Throw the fing ball away!?!?!

That's such a killer...especially inside the red zone.

 

[spongebob11]

I'm looking forward to our QB not sacking himself. How many times did Halliday run out of bounds and take a 3 yard loss. Throw the fing ball away!?!?!

That's such a killer...especially inside the red zone.

Thats why I like Falk to so much better. I thought his composure and decision making was superb for a RS Frosh.

And it wasn't like he just did that once. It was repeatable. Now you put yourself 2nd and 13...or whatever the down and distance is.

Gawd I am not going to miss that.

 

[wazzubruce]

Falk and this offense will go crazy this year with Falk throwing for over 5000 yards. the point made about Falk using his feet to move the chains is well made, he did just that against the Beavs that game.

 

[random soul]

Some people have tossed around the word "unproven" with Luke Falk, and with just showing up at the last of the season that's understandable to assume it because he was so new being thrust into the starting job, but I wanted to see how much experience he has versus Halliday when he first took over as the sole starter.

Luke Falk walked on in 2013 giving him a full year to Redshirt and get accustomed to the offense.
In 2014 his RS Freshmen year he took over the starting job when Halliday went down.

This will actually be Luke Falk's 3rd season inside the program. With two full years 4 games and 3 starts under his belt.

Now when Halliday started in 2012 He was a RS Soph and had missed spring camp recovering from injury. Halliday had Pac 12 experience, but the offense was new to him.

In his first year in the Leach era Halliday started 5 games and split time in other games with Tuel.

He posted the following numbers
Att 291 Comp 152 % 52.2 yds 1878 yds/att 6.5 TDs 15 Ints 13 Rat. 114.52

Not a bad start for a RS Soph learning a new system.

Here's Falk's stats after 4 games as a RS Freshmen

Att. 243 Comp 156 % 64.2 yds 1859 yds/att 7.7 TDs 13 Ints 7 Rat. 140.36

Falk has 12% better comp %, similar yards better yds/att about the same tds and about half as many ints as Halliday did in 2012...starting less games, and throwing about 50 less passes.

So Falk was actually better out the gate then Halliday to start in 2012. Now the offense was totally new to Halliday, but also he was a year older and had Pac 12 game experience,

No matter the experience/ starting point. The results are clear. Falk was better than Halliday in 2012.

So what can we expect in 2015 from Falk?

Halliday posted the following numbers in his first year as the sole starter:

Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

using the Att as a scale I will project his numbers if he doesn't improve at all from what he did in 2014.

Luke Falk Projected 2015:
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7

Now to do his tds and ints I will keep them with the same ratio to attempts in 2014 and just scale them for 2015.

Tadaaaaa
LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

so how does that compare to Halliday in 2013?
Att 714 Comp. 449 % 62.9 Yds. 4597 Yds/Att 6.4 Tds. 34 Int. 22 Rat. 126.52

Pretty similar but with 900 more yards 2 more tds and 2 less ints. Now this is if Falk improves zero on what he did in 2014. I find that unlikely.

But it's pretty safe to say that QB is not something we need to worry about for next year at all.

I actually don't expect Falk to throw the ball 714 times, but projecting out the numbers on an equal number of attempts is the useful way of doing the comparison. I'll be curious to see how 3rd down efficiency plays out. Will we be behind the sticks as often? If Falk can improvise a bit when he needs to, and Wicks can stay healthy (I really see him as the closest thing to a bell cow that this offense has because he's the one guy we have that can run through a tackle once the defense is spread out) there may be fewer of those 2nd/3rd and forever disasters that so often lead to turnovers.

 

[Cougatron]

Okay..... time to check out the ole Luke Falk Projections.... We have played 5 games total...so how is he doing in the projections....

His projected for the season

LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Att 714 Comp 463 % 64.2 yards 5497 yds/att 7.7 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

And his totals after 5 games
Att 275 Comp 196 %71 Yards 1964 yds/att 7.1 Tds 15 2 INTs QBR: 147.8

As you can see he's doing really well. So let's see how he ends up with his current trajectory
Att 660 Comp 468 %71 Yards 4713 7.1 Tds 36TDs and 5 Ints QBR 147.8

The most interesting things are less yards but way less ints. Everything else is fairly similar. Comp % is higher than projected and thus comps higher with fewer attempts. But overall he's definitely about where he should be.

 

[Cougatron]

oh I should also add. The 714 attempts is based of Halliday which includes an extra bowl game, I've just been using 12 games to measure Falk's projections not 13. Should have factored out the bowl game for Halliday to just get regular 12 game season number to base a projection off of.

 

[Geoduck12]

Well here is what I see that is so impressive so far

> 2 min down 4 goes 90 yds throws game winner v Rut with 13 sec
Opens UO game goes 75 yds for TD
> 2 min to halftime down 10 goes 75 yds for TD with 9 sec
Opening 2nd half drive for TD
> 2 min in game down 7 goes 75 yds for TD with 1 sec to go
End of game 4 possessions 3 TD's 1 FG

This guy is money and he's still learning. I am a fan

 

[Coug1990]

Well here is what I see that is so impressive so far

> 2 min down 4 goes 90 yds throws game winner v Rut with 13 sec
Opens UO game goes 75 yds for TD
> 2 min to halftime down 10 goes 75 yds for TD with 9 sec
Opening 2nd half drive for TD
> 2 min in game down 7 goes 75 yds for TD with 1 sec to go
End of game 4 possessions 3 TD's 1 FG

This guy is money and he's still learning. I am a fan

He also had the team driving down deep into enemy territory to take the lead late in the game against the Bears before the Cal player knocked the ball loose from Gabe Marks. I have no doubt the Cougars would have scored there, if not for the turnover

 

[Geoduck12]

He also had the team driving down to take the lead late in the game against before the Cal player knocked the ball loose from Gabe Marks. I have no doubt the Cougars would have scored there if not for the turnover

I think you're also right on that one.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

I think we're seeing "Leach 'Tech' ball" finally. The ball is rolling. Run check downs going to for bigger gains. "Big uglies" (thanks for the term, Keith Jackson) up front. A defensive swarming towards the ball and looking to get to the QB. And all with a young, smart QB at the helm. Sprinkled with lots of other young talented lads. Minus the Oregon game, penalties are down so far too (I believe they showed a stat during the Oregon game or mentioned how we've improved?).

 

[Cougatron]

Britton wrote an article on Cougcenter about Falk's pace and comparison to other Texas Tech QBs / Future pace.

Here's where he measures out (including bowl game)
Comp/Att 523/718 72.8 % 5,357 yards 7.5 yds/att 48 TDs 7 INTs QBR: 155.6

And here's my projection before the season began based on his 5 games from last year and Halliday's growth from 2012 to 2013.
LUKE FALK PROJECTED 2015 NUMBERS!
Comp Att 463/714 64.2% 5497 yards 7.7 yds/att 38 TDs 20 INTs QBR : 141.47

Interesting things to note here are the yards are similar but Falk is out pacing the projection in Comp% and TDs and has much fewer INTs,

Pretty cool to see how the decision making of experience has helped him improve.

Great job Luke, (and Britton).

 

[chipdouglas]

My understanding is that Leach doesn't like his qb's to take off.

Falk was kind thrown in there and playing with his instict.. Which is good. We'll see if Leach coaches it out of him or not

I love the idea of the QB taking off for 5 (or more) when it all breaks down. I know that, as a fan, the most frustrating thing in the world is playing a team whose QB keeps moving the chains when you're sure it's going for a sack or TFL.

For a team to have even a marginally effective running attack like ours, AND to throw it all over the yard like we do (short and, increasingly, long), AND for a QB to have the presence of mind to throw it away instead of getting sacked, AND for a QB to get 5 yards instead of a coverage sack - that is a devastating 1-2-3-4 punch.