11 seed
- Thread starter 95coug
- Start date
That's good to see! ESPN Bracketology out tomorrow, but Lunardi had us First 4 Out. Keep winning!
3 out of the PAC, ouch! If that happens it’s going to be real tough. Think the magic number is 23…any combination of reg season+ pac12 tourney wins that gets you there. 22 or less probably will need a lot of help from already qualified teams winning their conference tourneys. Keep stacking em.
These brackets don't mean much at this time. Lot of basketball left to play, just need to keep winning the games they are supposed to win. IMO they need to finish 7-3 in the last 10 to make it, and make it to the conference semifinals. That would put them at 13-7 in conference and 22-9 overall, plus two wins in the tournament. The relatively week non conference schedule does not help.
Just because Lunardi only projects 3 PAC 12 bids, doesn't mean that there will only be 3 PAC 12 bids.
There is a lot of bball yet to be played between now and then.
He has Oregon out. Oregon is going to make it in.
Lunardi's projections are based on CURRENT, NOW, records. It doesn't take into account teams heating up, etc.
Many Pundits, experts are projecting 4 bids for the PAC 12, 3 bids if lots of upsets in AQ conference tournaments, 5 if lack of AQ conference tournament upsets
1,2 games ago WSU only needed to go 7-4 + 1 PAC 12 tourny win.
After the Colorado win, now that's 6-4 + 1 PAC 12 tourny win, not 7-3 + 1 PAC 12 tourny win.
7,8 more wins +1 PAC 12 tourny win 100% GUARANTEES NCAA. 6 more wins + 1 PAC 12 tourny win = 59% to 63% chance to bubble into NCAA
12-8 in conference, 4th in conference, 21 wins + 1 PAC 12 tourny win = about 59% to 63% of bubbling into NCAA.
7,8 more wins + 1 PAC 12 tourny win GUARANTEES NCAA TOURNY.
Yes more wins, as many wins as possible, and about a guarantee to make NCAA would be nice.
But AT VERY MINIMUM, 6 more wins + 1 PAC 12 tourny win, is ENOUGH and about a 59% to 63% chance to bubble into, make NCAA
Your saying that WSU has to win 24,25 total wins(22 wins(7 more) + 2,3 wins in PAC 12 tourny), to make NCAA.
If WSU did that WSU would be tied for 2nd, 3rd in conference.
Your basically saying that the NCAA is only going to have 2,3 PAC 12 bids, and that WSU has to win 24,25 games to get 1 of those 2,3 bids.
The highest number of wins not to make NCAA tournament in all of PAC 12 history is 22. That was by ASU and 1 other team.
22,23 wins(6 more wins(21 wins + 1 PAC 12 tourny win, 12-8 in conference, 4th in conference), and about 59% to 63% that bubble into NCAA.
Mik, I appreciate your optimistic view, however with the NCAA there are no guarantees. Look what happened to these 6 teams just 2 years ago, 4 teams with 23 wins that didn't make the NCAA's, and 2 of those were from power 5 conferences. Net 40 something means very little, need to get into the 30s. Last year Clemson 23 wins, North Carolina, ( blue blood) 20 wins and a net 46 both didn't make it. Losses to Quad 3 and 4 teams killed them, unfortunately we have a few of those.
Cougs cannot afford to lose another quad 3 game. Cal game may come back to bite us.
NCAA snubs in 2022
Cougs cannot afford to lose another quad 3 game. Cal game may come back to bite us.
NCAA snubs in 2022
WSU with 10 games to go is NET 40. If WSU beats UW, and Ore St on the road, that will put WSU at about 30 to 33 to 35 to 37 NET.
Then a loss to Oregon puts WSU down to 35 to 37 to 40 to 43 NET, Wins vs ASU, Cal, 8-11 USC, 8-11 UCLA, puts WSU at about 27 to 30 to 33 ish NET. Losses to Arizona, 1 other puts WSU at 33 to 35 to 37 NET. 1 more win after that puts WSU at about 27 to 30 to 33 NET. 1 final Loss puts WSU at about 33 to 35 to 37 NET.
Then 1 PAC 12 tourny win puts WSU at about 27 to 30 to 33 NET.
WSU going 6-4, 12-8 in conference, 4th in conference, 21-10, then 1 PAC 12 tourny win, no losses to Cal types, no 30 point blowout losses = 27 to 30 to 33 to 35 NET, and about 59% to 63% chance to bubble into NCAA.
WSU DOES NOT HAVE TO WIN 7,8 MORE, 7,8-2,3, DOES NOT HAVE TO HAVE 24,25 TOTAL WINS, DOES NOT HAVE TO WIN 2,3 PAC 12 TOURNY WINS, DOES NOT HAVE TO FINISH TIED FOR 2ND IN CONFERENCE, DOES NOT HAVE TO BE 14-6, 13-7 IN CONFERENCE, ETC, TO BE 27 TO 30 TO 33 TO 35 NET, MAKE NCAA.
The ONLY WAY WSU WOULD HAVE TO DO THAT, IS IF ALL THE 30-0 TYPE TEAMS GET UPSET IN THEIR CONFERENCE AQ TOURNAMENTS, ETC.
IN OTHER WORDS JUST BECAUSE IT CAN HAPPEN, ITS NOT BLOODY DAM LIKELY.
Your looking at worst case scenarios happening.
Like I said the 2 highest PAC 12 win totals to NOT MAKE NCAA TOURNAMENT, is ASU at 22 wins, 1 time, and 1 other team at 22 wins, only 1 time
NO PAC 12 TEAM IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF THE PAC 12 HAS WON 23 GAMES AND FAILED TO GET INTO NCAA TOURNAMENT.
EVERY DAM TIME A PAC 12 TEAM WON 23 GAMES, THEY HAVE ALWAYS MADE THE PAC 12 TOURNY.
DURING THE LAST 2 YEARS THE PAC 12 HAS DONE AWESOMELY IN NONCON, HAD LOTS(5,6) TEAMS EACH SEASON MAKE NCAA TOURNAMENT, AND WENT TO THE ELITE 8, SUPER DEEP, ETC.
BECAUSE OF THAT IF WSU WINS 23 GAMES, 4TH IN PAC, 12-8 BY END OF PAC 12 TOURNY BY WINNING 1 PAC 12 TOURNY WIN, THEN THEY WILL PROBABLY HAVE ABOUT A 59% TO 63% CHANCE TO HAVE ABOUT A 27 TO 30 TO 33 TO 35 NET RANKING AND BUBBLE INTO NCAA TOURNAMENT UNLESS LOTS OF UPSETS IN AQ CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS.
BECAUSE OF THAT WSU PROBABLY DOES NOT HAVE TO WIN 24,25 GAMES, 14-6, 13-7, 2ND IN CONFERENCE, ETC.
NO OTHER P5 FAN BASE THINKS OH WOE IS US POOR OLE LITTLE OLE INSERT COLLEGE NAME, WE HAVE TO WIN 26 WINS, FINISH IN 1ST PLACE IN CONFERENCE, BECAUSE THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT IF WE WIN 23 GAMES, FINISH 3RD, 4TH IN CONFERENCE, THERE IS A EXTREMELY SMALL CHANCE WE WILL GET SNUBBED.
THATS LOSER CULTURE MENTALITY
THATS POOR OLE LITTLE OLE AW SCHUCKS WSU LOSER MENTALITY THINKING
I think they are just throwing numbers around. Don’t be Biggs, we don’t need another one of him.
Heard Smith on KJR from yesterday. When asked about being in Bracketology having us in he answered, "We aren't in yet." It's nice to be in the "conversation". Ton of season and work to do.
Last edited:
The coaches show is streaming on Youtube. Don't know if this is new or what. It just showed up on my TV. The women's show is up too. Search for Cougars Basketball Hour. Here's the link to the men's show.
Ferris, I think you need to fix Smith's quote. I hate when leaving out a couple characters changes the entire point. (Aren't, not are?)
Corrected. Yes, it was "we aren't in yet". It's the best way to think about things at this point. We have a lot of work to do starting now. Need to beat dub on the road, and they have been good at home.
I'm old enough to remember Hec Ed being a home away from home during the good Sampson years. Our size should match up with them well and we are playing really well. Never take the road for granted especially in a rivalry game.
WSU doesn't HAVE to beat UW on the road.
BUT WSU does have to win at least 1 out of the 3 straight road games, as going 0-3 in 3 straight road games, probably means no NCAA tournament.
And if WSU loses to UW on the road, then WSU has to beat Ore St on the road, because Ore St should be semi easier to beat on the road, and because if WSU loses to both UW, Ore St, back to back in a row on the road, it will be extremely hard not likely to beat Oregon on the road to not go 0-3 in 3 straight road games.
But If WSU beats UW, and then beats Ore St, then WSU is, would be playing with HOUSE MONEY, and can have a EXPECTED win, be a very close loss, instead of having to have to win that expected win.
So in that way, sense, UW is a semi critical, key game, that sets the table, to where if WSU then beats Ore St, then WSU will likely win enough games to make NCAA tourny.
But WSU does not have to beat UW to win enough games to make NCAA tournament
Weren’t you just yapping about cougloser mentality? 0-3? Come on man. UW doesn’t belong on the same court the way the Cougs have been playing. Let’s start this road stretch out with a smack down.
There’s about a 25% to 40% to 70% chance you are right.That doesn't narrow it down much, 90.....
You are not allowed to use whole numbers that are divisible by 5! I think you meant to say 27% to 44% to 69% to 73%.
Similar threads
