I can give you an update. First, in LA a month ago we had about 200 new cases reported per day. Last week it averaged almost 1,500. That is why indoor masks are back in the picture. With regard to vaccine efficiency: various vaccines are lab tested under different conditions, so it is not a "one size fits all" sort of efficiency number. But it is probably fair to say that most of the vaccines used in the US are somewhere in the low 90's % in the real world. If you pick 92% as an example, that means that 8 out of 100 will still get the disease when sufficiently exposed, and that is roughly what is estimated to be happening in LA. Those folks (commonly referred to as "break through" cases) seldom end up in the hospital (a few end up there, particularly if other conditions are present, but most don't end up hospitalized). So from the standpoint of the vaccine preventing severe symptoms, the vaccines are very, very effective. What is unknown at this point is whether a vaccinated person who gets sick is actually contagious to others. The assumption is that they are contagious, but are they just as contagious as anyone else? I don't know, and I probably follow this as closely as anybody on this board. I don't think we know the answer to that yet.
The point of the masks in LA is that we still have roughly 30% of the adults (and more of the younger ages) who have neither had covid nor have been vaccinated. And the current variant is much more contagious than the original variety. What does that mean in practical terms? It means that a much smaller dose of the variant will make someone sick; that is why and how it is so contagious. Dosage size has always been a big deal in terms of whether someone got the disease or not, and with the more contagious variants (including the one we have right now), small dosages lead to infection. Hence wearing masks...not just because of the breakthrough cases, but also because so many of the un-vaxxed here lie by omission by going maskless in environments when only the vaxxed are supposed to be unmasked. Hence, the only way to limit case increases is to limit transmission, and with enough unvaxxed people and a super contagious variant, masks are one of the few options available.
This will all solve itself eventually, because with the current variant, those who are unvaxxed will eventually get covid. I'm seeing that already among those who made an issue of being worried about vaccine side effects...and now they have to deal with the very real possibilities that come with actually having the disease, because their entire family is now sick. I know 2 families in that boat right now.
Best guess here is that we will probably be indoor masked for at least a month. The puzzle piece that nobody knows is what % of the homeless population has had covid. Maybe a lot, but maybe few. You could make a case either way due to a combination of social isolation & hygiene issues. If they are on the lower side, the more contagious variant will probably spread pretty quickly, and nobody here knows what that will look like a month from now. If they have mostly had covid by now, then they are irrelevant to this discussion. Depending upon how you define homelessness, we probably have somewhere between 50-100K in LA County alone. In a month we'll know a lot more about how that has shaken out.