Cal prediction thread
- Thread starter kougkurt
- Start date
Cal is OVERATED. Cal lost to 1-2, 1-3 Overated Notre Dame, and only scored low vs semi ok, semi average, semi below average, teams, and Jayden Ott, while a good RB, most of Cal's yards, points, offense was against ARIZONA.
WSU's defense is BETTER then Notre Dame's defense that held Cal to 17. Cal's O Line is semi below average at best.
WSU shut down Wiscy's Braylon RB that better then Cal RB Jayden Ott.
Oregon's O Line is a good as Wiscy's, BEST O LINE in nation, so of course WSU's defense was going to struggle to semi contain Oregon's offense.
WSU, Dickert, players, coaches, team, fans, etc, are pissed at the Oregon game, gona come out FIRED UP, PREPARED, FOCUSED, ETC, and will TAKE IT OUT on Cal.
It's not only a home game, but it's Homecoming, and not only homecoming, but they are doing a special half time celebration of Rosebowl coaches, players.
Cam has a complete game.
WSU 37 - Cal 19
WSU's defense is BETTER then Notre Dame's defense that held Cal to 17. Cal's O Line is semi below average at best.
WSU shut down Wiscy's Braylon RB that better then Cal RB Jayden Ott.
Oregon's O Line is a good as Wiscy's, BEST O LINE in nation, so of course WSU's defense was going to struggle to semi contain Oregon's offense.
WSU, Dickert, players, coaches, team, fans, etc, are pissed at the Oregon game, gona come out FIRED UP, PREPARED, FOCUSED, ETC, and will TAKE IT OUT on Cal.
It's not only a home game, but it's Homecoming, and not only homecoming, but they are doing a special half time celebration of Rosebowl coaches, players.
Cam has a complete game.
WSU 37 - Cal 19
Against their 2 P5 opponents WSU has given up 1,025 yards, 353 of which was rushing.
Giving up an average of 512.5 yards per game, 176 of which are on the ground… That isn’t good defense. They’re playing very strong bend but don’t break redzone defense. They haven’t given up the points to reflect those yards yet. But it is concerning.
Wilcox knows how to shut down the air raid. Morris is gonna have his work cut out for him.
If the defense plays bend but don’t break..
WSU 21
Cal 20
If the defense gets gashed for another big day of 500+…
WSU 21
Cal 63
Giving up an average of 512.5 yards per game, 176 of which are on the ground… That isn’t good defense. They’re playing very strong bend but don’t break redzone defense. They haven’t given up the points to reflect those yards yet. But it is concerning.
Wilcox knows how to shut down the air raid. Morris is gonna have his work cut out for him.
If the defense plays bend but don’t break..
WSU 21
Cal 20
If the defense gets gashed for another big day of 500+…
WSU 21
Cal 63
Most of those yards was against the best P5 O Line, Rushing Offense IN THE ENTIRE NATION.
WSU CONTAINED, semi kinda shut down Wisconsin a 1 of the best P5 O Line, rushing offense in the entire nation.
Cal's O Line is nowhere even remotely close to close to having a O Line, Rushing Attack, as good as Wiscy, Oregon.
Cal's O Line is SEMI BELOW AVERAGE AT BEST, OVERRATED.
WSU's defense is going to SACK Cal QB 2 to 4 to 6 times, and semi stuff, semi contain Cal RB enough.
Cal probably only scores 19.
Probably Worst Case, Cal probably only scores 29 composed of lots of FG's at worst
No way in Hell would Cal score 44+, more then Oregon, let alone 63.
And certainly not after what happened at Oregon, and certainly not at homecoming.
Now if the Cal game was after the Wiscy or Idaho game, and AT CAL, instead of Homecoming at WSU, then Cal might do as good or better then Oregon vs WSU
Your prediction of 63, etc, is BS.
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Wilcox knows how to shut down the Mike Leach Air Raid.
Remember, Mike Leach's Air Raid, didn't have a TE to help block, and Mike Leach RB's weren't great at blocking, and Mike Leach almost never ran the ball.
Eric Morris's Air Raid is more like Sonny Dykes Air Raid. Eric's TE's and RB's BLOCK, HELP BLOCK. And Eric RUNS THE BALL.
Against Wisconsin, WSU had MULTIPLE LONG drives that RAN THE BALL A LOT.
That 5 minute drive to end the Wisconsin game was almost ALL RUN, almost no pass.
Eric RUNS the ball vs 2,3 man fronts, drop 7,8. Eric RUNS the ball vs 3,4,5,6 man boxes.
The weakness of WSU's offense is not lack of running the ball, but too many 1,2,3,4 yard SHORT PASSES, SCREENS, and not enough Passing, vertical medium to semi long passes.
Wilcox stops Mike Leach's Air Raid by rushing 2,3,4 DL, LB, and dropping 6,7,8, daring Leach's QB to run it(which doesn't happen).
If Wilcox only rushes 2,3,4, and drops 6,7,8, and only has 3,4,5 in the box, Eric, WSU will run a lot, PROBABLY successfully vs that, and Nakia Watson, Jenkins, WSU RB's would probably have a field day, if Wilcox does that.
What Wilcox has to do is press, jam WSU's WR's while Short range zone blitzing, pass blitzing, run blitzing. That would cover the WSU WR's, put enough in the box to stuff run, and rush Cam into a bad pass/bad decision.
To counter that Cam can't afford to MISS, not hit WSU SHORT PASSES, SCREENS, WR'S, RB'S IN STRIDE FOR YAC.
AND WSU WR'S must CATCH not DROP passes.
AND then after that Cam must take AT LEAST OCCASION MEDIUM TO SEMI DEEP, LONG, VERTICAL PASSES to STRETCH THE DEFENSE, FIELD, create room UNDERNEATH for the Short passes, screens, shovel passes, etc, to WR's, RB's, and for the RB's to be able to run the ball and not be stuffed, stopped at LOS.
Cal's defense is only good vs Mike Leach. Eric is NOT Mike Leach, so Cal's defense will not be good enough to Stop Eric, Cam, WSU.
Cam has a complete game, and puts up at least 34 to 37 points.
Welp, they won’t be running back multiple kickoffs for TDs, now that we can kick it through the end zone. So that may help keep it below 63.
Again that 600+ yards of offense and the lots of rushing yards, was against the BEST O LINE, RUSHING OFFENSE in the entire nation.
OF COURSE A ALABAMA NATIONAL CHAMPION, BEST O LINE, BEST RUSH ATTACK IN THE ENTIRE NATION IN ALL OF COLLEGE FOOTBALLDOM TYPE, A ALABAMA, OREGON, WISCY, is going to put up 600+ yards on WSU.
You can't go by that because the other Pac 12 P5 colleges are nowhere even remotely close to close to being close to as good as Oregon, Alabama, Wiscy, Ohio State, etc, O Line, Rushing attack.
Also WSU CONTAINED SEMI KINDA OF SEMI KIND OF SEMI SHUT DOWN WISCONSIN'S TOP OL, RUSHING ATTACK.
Also if WSU were to give up 600+ yards to UW, Stanford, Cal, Oregon St, Arizona, ASU, UCLA, etc, then you can be worried that WSU's defense would do the same vs Cal, etc.
But if WSU gives up 600+ yards vs Oregon, Alabama, Ohio State, maybe USC, etc, then you have to throw that out, and not be worried about WSU giving up 500+, lots of yards vs a weak Pac 12 offense like Cal, ASU, Arizona, Colorado, etc.
One thing most forget is that Christian Mejia did not play against Oregon, his wife was in labor and he had a baby, so congratulations to him. Having Mejia in the game, one of our biggest D Lineman, might have made a difference in the 4th quarter versus Oregon. Cougs have done a great job of rotating the DL throughout the previous games, so missing one in the rotation takes its toll in the long run. So I do believe they play better versus the run this week. Wilcox always defended the air raid well., AZ put up 31 points on them, so it leads me to believe the D isn't as good as previous years. Looks like Cal has a little more offense, it will be a tight game, and the Cougs pull it out in the 4th quarter. Need to get back on the plus side of the turnovers.
CORRECTION: Wilcox defend the MIKE LEACH AIR RAID WITH NO TE'S THAT NEVER RUNS WELL.
Eric Morris, Sonny Dykes Air Raids that have TE's, that RUN THE BALL, are NOT Mike Leach, NOT THE LEACH AIR RAID, and either have done well, ok, or will do well, ok vs Wilcox.
Cal's O Line is semi below average at best, OVERRATED.
Cal only scored 17 vs OVERRATED 1-2, 1-3 Notre Dame, that held Cal to 17 points.
WSU's defense is better then Notre Dame's defense
WSU will pressure, hurry Cal's QB up, and SACK Cal QB 1,2,3,4,5 times.
Cal score 19 to 29 points
WSU win by 34-37 to Cal's 19 to 29
Notre Dame is 1-2,1-3, OVERRATED. So Cal almost beating Notre Dame, MEANS NOTHING.
And Cal still lost to Bad 1-2,1-3 Notre Dame.
And Cal only scored 17 vs Notre Dame.
And WSU's defense is better then Notre Dame's Defense.
Great thread. Most of you are making valid points. Here is my take.
Defensive battle. Relatively low scoring. Wilcox is a smart guy and will have a good D dialed up, but defending this O is not like defending the Leach O. Cal has a decent D. Probably not quite as good as Wisconsin or Oregon, but worth discussing in the same conversation. Cal will have to be balanced in their offense if they want to score, and I'm not sure they can manage that. I expect them to get 3 or 4 scores, of which 2 are probably field goals.
Our offense has taken slow steps every game. The results are not obvious against an Oregon or a Wisconsin, but they were there. A bit more of the playbook every week. My best guess...and this is the crux of this prediction...is that this week is when we see the O line achieve few or no blown assignments. Sure, the O linemen will be defeated in blocks now and then...but no more failures to pick up a blitz or mis-read a formation.
If that prediction is right, then Cam gets 3-4 seconds half of the time. And if that happens, we score.
Since I think we see the O line give Cam 3-4 seconds half of the time in this game, my prediction is WSU 31, Cal 20. I'll be counting time to see how many pass plays go past 3 seconds of good pocket protection, because that will be the major story of this game.
Defensive battle. Relatively low scoring. Wilcox is a smart guy and will have a good D dialed up, but defending this O is not like defending the Leach O. Cal has a decent D. Probably not quite as good as Wisconsin or Oregon, but worth discussing in the same conversation. Cal will have to be balanced in their offense if they want to score, and I'm not sure they can manage that. I expect them to get 3 or 4 scores, of which 2 are probably field goals.
Our offense has taken slow steps every game. The results are not obvious against an Oregon or a Wisconsin, but they were there. A bit more of the playbook every week. My best guess...and this is the crux of this prediction...is that this week is when we see the O line achieve few or no blown assignments. Sure, the O linemen will be defeated in blocks now and then...but no more failures to pick up a blitz or mis-read a formation.
If that prediction is right, then Cam gets 3-4 seconds half of the time. And if that happens, we score.
Since I think we see the O line give Cam 3-4 seconds half of the time in this game, my prediction is WSU 31, Cal 20. I'll be counting time to see how many pass plays go past 3 seconds of good pocket protection, because that will be the major story of this game.
Wilcox will do what he did against Leach...drop 8 ...low scoring game. Wilcox has had a lot of success playing the air raid.
I expect a (much) smaller crowd Saturday with a lot less energy and feel a let down is fairly likely after such a tough loss. The bending, not breaking may fall apart, especially if they lack a little juice. I think it will be about a FG difference so I’ll go with the Cougs at home.
27-24.
27-24.
Cougs 24, Bears 16.
Both teams get four scores....but three of them for the Bears are field goals vs one for us. Bend but don't break is just good enough to get it done.
Both teams get four scores....but three of them for the Bears are field goals vs one for us. Bend but don't break is just good enough to get it done.
Cal has been shuffling around their line up the entire year. Nine different starters since the first game and four of them on the o-line. They have gone for younger upgrades, but I don't see that working out well against our ends and tackle rotation. Ott blew up v. Zona which I believe was his first game as a starter, but average 2.5 yards on 13 carries the week prior v. ND. Plummer doing ok at QB.
With our progression on offense, the game being at home and at homecoming, and the sting of Oregon still hurting, I don't see this game being that close.
WSU 34 Cal 17
With our progression on offense, the game being at home and at homecoming, and the sting of Oregon still hurting, I don't see this game being that close.
WSU 34 Cal 17
It’s homecoming. Weather nice again. 230 start. If the crowd is significantly smaller…well, we should build a bigger stadium! I kid, but I fully expect the place to empty at halftime as usual I’ll be there the full 60 as usual and will get my drink on before and after.
And when Wilcox, rushes 3, drops 8, and only has 3,4,5 in Box, which will be most of the game, WSU, Eric, Dickert, Watson, Jenkins will RUN THE BALL about 46 to 49% of the time, SEMI KINDA SEMI GASHING Wilcox's rush 3, drop 8 defense.
DICKERT, ERIC IS NOT MIKE LEACH, AND DOES NOT, IS NOT THE MIKE LEACH AIR RAID.
Yeah Dickert won’t care about throwing it if we are getting 6-7 a pop on the ground. And if Ward doesn’t take it his ass will get chewed out. If they play that style w 7 DBs we will run all over them.
I know that facts don’t really play a big part in your analysis, but Oregon’s rushing offense wasn’t the problem…or at least, not the biggest problem.
We gave up 446 yards through the air against Oregon. Nix completed 75% of his passes. 75%. They had 11 receivers with a catch, 4 of them with 5+ catches, and 6 with a long over 20 yards (3 of those over 40). This means we didn’t cover anyone.
The ducks also had 178 yards on the ground, which is nothing to sneeze at, but it’s not what beat us….although their 5.6 yard average also means we didn’t defend the run very well either. But the rushing attack that was the bigger problem was ours. Our 53 yards and 2.1 average means we were one dimensional. But, if we’d been the least bit capable of defending the pass, we win that game.
624 yards is awful. Everything is wrong. It isn’t one thing.
Oregon had 604 yards against EWU, scored 70.
Watching Dick’s presser after the game… Don’t tell me you aren’t gonna win many games giving up 600+ yards of offense and also tell me you’re a good football team. Good football teams don’t give up 624 yards of offense. They just don’t.
This isn't my standard reverse jinx prediction. I have serious reservations about this game. As others have noted, Wilcox is a good defensive coach, and he always has a solid gameplan against us. Couple that with the fact that our offense hasn't clicked consistently this season, and there's cause for concern.
Looking into a teams schedule isn't usually a good barometer for reading them, but there are some clues hidden in Cal's early games that lead me to believe they’re a decent team. They struggled vs. UNLV early, winning on the road 20-14, but UNLV has since shown to be one of the more surprising teams on the West coast this season, having won at Utah State and pounding North Texas. Cal's only loss is on the road against a Notre Dame team with their backs against the wall. The Irish were stunned by Marshall, but they also put up a good fight at Ohio State and won easily at North Carolina. Then there's Arizona, who Cal ran up and down the field against last week. Arizona isn't a strong team, but Cal put it to them worse than Mississippi State did.
I don't know, I think this is a seriously dangerous game. Extremely even. What concerns me is that Cal is coming in sky high to face us on a sunny day, while we come into our 3rd straight home game having blown a heartbreaker vs. Oregon.
I'll pick WSU in a close one, but bias aside, I think Cal is at least even with us. The betting line opened at WSU -4.5 and has dropped between 1/2 and a full point down to 3.
Cal 24
WSU 27
Looking into a teams schedule isn't usually a good barometer for reading them, but there are some clues hidden in Cal's early games that lead me to believe they’re a decent team. They struggled vs. UNLV early, winning on the road 20-14, but UNLV has since shown to be one of the more surprising teams on the West coast this season, having won at Utah State and pounding North Texas. Cal's only loss is on the road against a Notre Dame team with their backs against the wall. The Irish were stunned by Marshall, but they also put up a good fight at Ohio State and won easily at North Carolina. Then there's Arizona, who Cal ran up and down the field against last week. Arizona isn't a strong team, but Cal put it to them worse than Mississippi State did.
I don't know, I think this is a seriously dangerous game. Extremely even. What concerns me is that Cal is coming in sky high to face us on a sunny day, while we come into our 3rd straight home game having blown a heartbreaker vs. Oregon.
I'll pick WSU in a close one, but bias aside, I think Cal is at least even with us. The betting line opened at WSU -4.5 and has dropped between 1/2 and a full point down to 3.
Cal 24
WSU 27
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The RUN and Oregon's OL and PLAY ACTION PASS SET UP BY Oregon's RUN, OL, made it extremely hard for WSU to defend the Pass.
If WSU had defended, shut down the run well, good, then WSU would have defended the pass better.
Oregon's 178 rushing yards, 5.6 yards per carry GASSED, TIRED, WORE OUT WSU'S ability to defend the Pass.
Oregon is KNOWN, FAMOUS FOR, HAS A TOP BEST O LINE, RUSHING ATTACK IN THE NATION STATISTICALLY.
Yes Oregon Technically had more passing yards then rushing yards vs WSU, but make no mistake, it was Oregon's top rated OL, Rushing attack, that made it so that WSU's defense could NOT get any pressure, hurries, sacks vs Oregon's OL, QB, gave Oregon's QB, ALL DAY TO THROW, and SET UP OREGON'S PLAY ACTION PASS that hurt WSU.
Take away Oregon's top rated O Line, Rushing attack, and Oregon's passing attack wouldn't have done good vs WSU.
It was Oregon's Top O Line and Rushing attack that was responsible for everything.
We don’t know if Oregon is a good team yet. That’s the grain of salt here.
The Ducks got pummeled by Georgia and recovered to take it to BYU. That’s their sample size. I watched BYU last night struggle at home vs. a 1-4 Utah St team. UNLV, a team Cal beat on the road, won by 10 at Utah State. Wisconsin got blown out of the stadium by Ohio St. The Buckeyes are elite, but Wisconsin teams don’t typically fall behind 52-7 to anyone. Notre Dame lost 21-10 at Ohio State.
Is Oregon a good team? Is BYU? Is Wisconsin? Is Cal? Are we? It’s way too early to tell. So far, our body of work isn’t that impressive. Idaho, Wisconsin, Colorado St, and Oregon. The 2 big names on that list have each been run out of the stadium already.
The only allowable prediction this weekend is:
WSU 63 Cal 37
www.sports-reference.com
WSU 63 Cal 37
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997 | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997
www.sports-reference.com
Well, Cal knows exactly where our major weakness on defense lies. But do they have the QB and OL protection to take advantage of the perpetually wide open intermediate and deep routes? We are playing high pressure defense without the NFL calibre DBs circa 1994, 2002/2003, needed for it to be effective, week in, week out.
I haven't a clue how it is going to turn out. I kinda hoping that Cal gets a lead, and goes conservative, allowing us to mount a comeback. Conversely, no Cougar lead will be safe, unless Cals OL struggles!
I haven't a clue how it is going to turn out. I kinda hoping that Cal gets a lead, and goes conservative, allowing us to mount a comeback. Conversely, no Cougar lead will be safe, unless Cals OL struggles!
That game was way more lopsided than the 26 point final spread. We coulda scored 100.The only allowable prediction this weekend is:
WSU 63 Cal 37
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997 | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997
Ah, the Steve Gleason high-5s the ref gameThe only allowable prediction this weekend is:
WSU 63 Cal 37
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997 | College Football at Sports-Reference.com
California at Washington State Box Score, October 18, 1997
Wilcox is going to bring a lot of disguised packages against us to confuse CW. He'll show 3 man rush and bring in pressure from the corners or sides - our O line has proven that they can't handle blitzes or even 4 man rushes very well, so this will give them fits. He'll also plant 7 in the box and then drop into coverage. Our only hope to combat this is A) be effective running the ball, regardless of what look they show and/ or B) be effective throwing downfield. The dink and dunk bullshit isn't going to work enough to get us scores.
If we can play this game like Wisconsin, I see us pullilng out a 17-14 win.
On the other hand, if Kal comes out firing on all cylinders, it could be a very long day for the Cougs - 28-7 Kal.
Hopefully the good guys prevail and Morris sets up CW to be successful.
If we can play this game like Wisconsin, I see us pullilng out a 17-14 win.
On the other hand, if Kal comes out firing on all cylinders, it could be a very long day for the Cougs - 28-7 Kal.
Hopefully the good guys prevail and Morris sets up CW to be successful.
