Can/will the P12 survive?

mikalalas

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Confirmed!

The thing with that tho is that the longer that expansion takes, meanwhile UW, Oregon has said they are staying put(at least while Big 18+ has them on hold). They have told Pac 12 leadership they are staying put. And Pac 12 conference has issued a statement that everyone in conference, including Oregon and UW are staying put, and that the conference will super aggressively pursue expansion.

During this time CBS's Dodd, has announced and Big 12 has announced that the Big 12 is not interested, and will not try to get any Pac 12 teams.

Then during and after this, WA, Oregon govts has hinted at, unofficially said that UW, Oregon, either go together with WSU, Ore St, or stay together with WSU, Ore St.

Then during, after this, Pac 12 targets, gets Ok St, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor, KSU, Iowa St, BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Air force, added to Oregon, UW, Stanford, Cal, Utah, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St.

Then during, after that, this new Pac 20 renews the Rosebowl with the BIG 10(BIG 18+).

Then after that the Pac 20 gets 1 Auto bid to play offs, and 1 at large probability to Play off..

Then the Pac 20 gets a pretty good media deal(Not as good as BIG 18+ and SEC, but still P3, 3rd place conference, tier 1.5 conference behind tier 1's BIG 18+, SEC, and ahead of tier 2 ACC, and Tier 2.5 Big whatever's left, and tier 3 Mountain West whatever's left, unless ACC, combines with whatever's left of Big 12.

Then after that, ND decides to Join BIG 18+, and BIG 18+ reaches out to Oregon, UW, but at that time, either they turn down Big 18+ because they have a easier road to playoffs, national championship, and still pretty good media deal money.

Or WA, Oregon Govts say can't leave WSU, Ore St behind forcing UW, Oregon to turn down BIG 18+.

But even if Oregon, UW were to leave, the Pac 20, would become the Pac 18, still have a pretty good tie in to Rosebowl, play offs, still have pretty good media deal.

Short Story, BIG 18+ may have screwed up not getting Oregon, UW, with USC, UCLA, and turning Oregon, UW down until if ND joins the BIG 18+
 
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95coug

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Wilner’s latest suggests that Cal & Stanford could just give up football.

Realistically, in the new landscape, that’s probably the move that makes the most sense for a lot of programs. Football is already expensive. Creating national super conferences will bring more revenue, but also will hugely increase travel expenses and make the idea of the “student athlete” even more laughable. Even if media deals result in more money, most schools are likely forced to plow that cash right back into the program to continue building and upgrading facilities, with no end in sight. Even with those investments, most won’t have a realistic shot at sustained success because the best NIL deals are going to be from ~20 schools, who are going to live on pulling good players from the portal.

I still want to watch my team. But I don’t like what CFB has become. I think WSU needs to move quickly to choose a direction, and try to make the best possible move. We don’t have a lot of negotiating power, so we need to be out in front and moving fast to have any chance. But honestly at this point if the Regents, president, AD, whatever came out and said we’re not going to pursue staying in the P-5, we’ve applied to join the MT West…I’d accept that.
 
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BiggsCoug

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Wilner’s latest suggests that Cal & Stanford could just give up football.

Realistically, in the new landscape, that’s probably the move that makes the most sense for a lot of programs. Football is already expensive. Creating national super conferences will bring more revenue, but also will hugely increase travel expenses and make the idea of the “student athlete” even more laughable. Even if media deals result in more money, most schools are likely forced to plow that cash right back into the program to continue building and upgrading facilities, with no end in sight. Even with those investments, most won’t have a realistic shot at sustained success because the best NIL deals are going to be from ~20 schools, who are going to live on pulling good players from the portal.

I still want to watch my team. But I don’t like what CFB has become. I think WSU needs to move quickly to choose a direction, and try to make the best possible move. We don’t have a lot of negotiating power, so we need to be out in front and moving fast to have any chance. But honestly at this point if the Regents, president, AD, whatever came out and said we’re not going to pursue staying in the P-5, we’ve applied to join the MT West…I’d accept that.

WSU should not join the Mtn West. It should be select schools joining the P10. Big difference in branding, bowl tie ins, tv money. Even if the brand takes a hit, it isnt the Mtn West. Even if the tv $ takes a hit, it isnt Mtn West tv $.

But joining the Mtn West and knowingly moving to G5 football? Fu$k that. Raise your standards.

And it is a dumb idea to drop football. This guy is a moron. Stanford is paying Shaw a ridiculous amount and he’s put them in Rose Bowls. And now they bag it? F’ing dumb take.

Cal is the worst program in the conference. Guess what pays the bills for their other sports? Their football team and the tv deal (however small it may be there is no TV deal for Cal’s tennis team). Even the bow revenue sharing pays bills. Cut the program altogether and taking yourself out of ANY running for millions of dollars? Aint happening.

His article is shitty click bait.
 
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95coug

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Whatever name it takes, a conference that’s the remaining pac-12 teams plus Mt West teams is probably not a power conference. They’re not going to get money that competes with the rest of the current P-5. They’re going to be much more comparable to the Mtn West.

The only prayer the Pac-12 has for a better deal is to merge with the rest of the Big 12. But even that combined conference doesn’t have a real strong draw and probably doesn’t guarantee a better deal. Plus I don’t see a strong incentive for the B12 to play along.
 

mikalalas

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Whatever name it takes, a conference that’s the remaining pac-12 teams plus Mt West teams is probably not a power conference. They’re not going to get money that competes with the rest of the current P-5. They’re going to be much more comparable to the Mtn West.

The only prayer the Pac-12 has for a better deal is to merge with the rest of the Big 12. But even that combined conference doesn’t have a real strong draw and probably doesn’t guarantee a better deal. Plus I don’t see a strong incentive for the B12 to play along.

According to what the Pac 12, Big 12, UW, OR, etc, have said, Your Wrong.

1. Big 12 is not going to take Pac 12 teams, at least for now, according to insider sources, and the Big 12 making a public statement that they are not going to raid the Pac 12(Pretty Dumb)

2. The Pac 12, and ALL of the Pac 12 including UW, Oregon, and not USC, UCLA, are staying put, and that the Pac 12 is going to super aggressively pursue expansion.

3. Because of above, even if WSU/Pac 12, only is able to get Iowa St, BSU, UNLV, SDSU, Air force, Fresno St, to Join Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become the Pac 16, that then renews Rosebowl Deal between Big 18+ and the new Pac 16, then becomes the 3rd best conference, a 1.75 tier conference behind tier 1 Big 18+, SEC, and tied with tier 1.75 with Big 12, and then gets a semi pretty ok TV deal, and gets 1 Auto bid to playoffs, and 1 conditional at large possibility, that's still pretty good.

And even if Ore, UW were to leave knocking the Pac 16 down to PAC 14, the Pac 14 could then still get 2 teams, say Texas Tech, and 1 other, from Big 12. Also if WSU were to win 10,11 games this coming season, and the season after that, WSU, without UW, Oregon, USC, UCLA, could become consistently pretty good, and have a much easier path to Rosebowl, Playoffs.

WSU/Pac 12 and Big 12 do not have to join each other and Merge, and probably won't.

Your not seeing, not paying attention to what UW, Oregon, Pac 12, Big 12, etc, have said MOST RECENTLY.
 
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Coug90

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That's exactly what will happen, but it won't derail the plan. We live in a Walmart world. They'll have a 36-40 team super league, and the same top-15 of them will dominate the upper echelon. The traditional rivalries and David vs. Goliath subplots that make college sports so great will largely disappear; particularly out West where football is already trending down.

If it goes this route, I hope the 60+ Group 6 / tier 2 programs unify their own league with their own playoff. It works in Europe, where some historically popular futbol is played below the D1 level. WSU in a league of 12 other Mountain West type programs would still be fun for me.

I think because I got started following WSU when we didn't even play home games in Martin Stadium, I'm not as afraid of these changes as a lot of people are. Despite the USC, UW, UCLA, etc. power programs offering unlimited scholarships and having every conceivable advantage over us, we still managed to field some fun teams to watch. Hopefully that will continue, and I think it will. Scheduling home games in November vs. the likes of San Jose State and Wyoming will be ugly attendance wise, but I'll bet you our attendance numbers won't be much worse than they are now. That's what's funny about WSU. We always seem to hover around 25K-30K fans/game.
Well think about this. A mountain west league that included WSU may include road trip destinations such as Vegas, San Diego, Boise (I know you guys hate Donkey State but Boise is an awesome city), Wyoming, Tahoe, Hawaii, etc. beats the hell out of traveling to LA, Eugene, and Seattle.
 

mikalalas

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What part of that Oregon, UW, Pac 12, Big 12, have all made official public statements that Big 12, not raiding Pac 12, and that Pac 12, is having it's remaining members stay with Pac 12 and that the Pac 12, will start super aggressively pursue expansion immediately does anyone not understand.

Furthermore Brand X, 247, etc, Seattle Times, Google, Politician Michael Baumgartner, who has contact most of the WA, Oregon state Congress politicians, has said that Oregon, WA, is not gonna leave WSU, Ore St Behind, and will FORCE UW, Oregon to not leave WSU, Ore St. behind.

Read Extremely Carefully. All the colleges in the Pac 12, except USC, UCLA, are staying put in the Pac 12, and that the Pac 12 is super aggressively pursuing expansion, immediately.
 

95coug

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What part of that Oregon, UW, Pac 12, Big 12, have all made official public statements that Big 12, not raiding Pac 12, and that Pac 12, is having it's remaining members stay with Pac 12 and that the Pac 12, will start super aggressively pursue expansion immediately does anyone not understand.

Furthermore Brand X, 247, etc, Seattle Times, Google, Politician Michael Baumgartner, who has contact most of the WA, Oregon state Congress politicians, has said that Oregon, WA, is not gonna leave WSU, Ore St Behind, and will FORCE UW, Oregon to not leave WSU, Ore St. behind.

Read Extremely Carefully. All the colleges in the Pac 12, except USC, UCLA, are staying put in the Pac 12, and that the Pac 12 is super aggressively pursuing expansion, immediately.
All of those are the boilerplate public statements that should be expected, and they’re all true until they’re not. Once there’s enough money involved the statements aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.

I don’t think I’ve seen anything from the Big 12. The Big 10 said they’re “standing pat”…at least until they get an answer from Notre Dame.

All these statements are the equivalent of Erickson saying he’s not going anywhere as he he’s boarding the plane to Miami. They’re BS. Meaningless platitudes from people who have no authority and little control.
 
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What part of that Oregon, UW, Pac 12, Big 12, have all made official public statements that Big 12, not raiding Pac 12, and that Pac 12, is having it's remaining members stay with Pac 12 and that the Pac 12, will start super aggressively pursue expansion immediately does anyone not understand.

Furthermore Brand X, 247, etc, Seattle Times, Google, Politician Michael Baumgartner, who has contact most of the WA, Oregon state Congress politicians, has said that Oregon, WA, is not gonna leave WSU, Ore St Behind, and will FORCE UW, Oregon to not leave WSU, Ore St. behind.

Read Extremely Carefully. All the colleges in the Pac 12, except USC, UCLA, are staying put in the Pac 12, and that the Pac 12 is super aggressively pursuing expansion, immediately.
You are living in a fantasy world if you believe the political statements coming out from UW and UO. And anything coming from the commissioner's office is a desperate attempt at showing unity. The conference leadership has no authority at this point. It is everyone for themselves and UW and OU will take the offer if extended by the B10. Anything coming from the state legislators is laughable. They are not even in session to pass any sort of legislation to force the universities to go as a package deal.
All that said, the B10 may not invite UW and UO. The B10 universities may be happy with snagging the crown jewels of our conference and why split more revenue with two additional borderline name brands.
 

Wazzubrooz

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All of those are the boilerplate public statements that should be expected, and they’re all true until they’re not. Once there’s enough money involved the statements aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.

I don’t think I’ve seen anything from the Big 12. The Big 10 said they’re “standing pat”…at least until they get an answer from Notre Dame.

All these statements are the equivalent of Erickson saying he’s not going anywhere as he he’s boarding the plane to Miami. They’re BS. Meaningless platitudes from people who have no authority and little control.
Yup. Oregon & the dogs are leaving as soon as they are offered by the Big Ten. Tomorrow or a year from now. They will not be able to say no to the obscene $ being offered.
 

mikalalas

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You are living in a fantasy world if you believe the political statements coming out from UW and UO. And anything coming from the commissioner's office is a desperate attempt at showing unity. The conference leadership has no authority at this point. It is everyone for themselves and UW and OU will take the offer if extended by the B10. Anything coming from the state legislators is laughable. They are not even in session to pass any sort of legislation to force the universities to go as a package deal.
All that said, the B10 may not invite UW and UO. The B10 universities may be happy with snagging the crown jewels of our conference and why split more revenue with two additional borderline name brands.

It's not just any one single thing, it's a amalgamation, combination of:

UW, OREGON, and all the other Pac 12 colleges(cept USC, UCLA), saying they are staying put.

AND AND

Big 12 OFFICIALLY Stating, saying that they will not(At least for a while), raid Pac 12, and various credible insider sources alluded to by various sources(EITHER Dodd, Wilner, Canzano, etc, etc), backing up what Big 12 said.

AND AND.

Big 10 officially saying they are staying pat, with insider sources, again alluded to by either Dodd, Wilner, Canzano, etc, saying they turned UW, Oregon, Down, but might pursue them at later date, if ND, joins Big 10.

AND AND.

Pac 12 saying, confirming that all remaining colleges staying put, and that would extremely super aggressively pursue expansion. And again insiders backing that up.

AND AND.

WA, and OREGON State Govt's, Governors, state legislatures, Michael Baumgartner saying that they won't let Oregon/UW leave WSU/Ore St behind.

ALL THAT COMBINED TOGETHER, combined with understanding the situation right, reading between the lines MEANS:

That somewhere between the Short and Mid Term(Say ABOUT 6 to 9 to 13 to 17+ months)(Probably no Pac 12 team will announce leaving during this time frame), that the Pac 12 will be staying put together, and will extremely aggressively pursue expansion.

During this time the Pac 12 could easily get Iowa St from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU from the MWC, added to Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become Pac 14. If that at least happens, and then if Rosebowl contract renewed, and if Pac 14 then signs a 33 million per school, per year revenue share, plus bowl game revenue, plus play off revenue, plus 1 Auto play off bid +1 at large play off bid. If that kind of thing happened, likely no more teams would leave Pac 14.

Also the states of WA, and Oregon, HOLD THE PURSE STRINGS/POWER to UW/OREGON. And just like the State of WA Govt, Jay INSLEE, FIRED COACH ROLO, they could have done the same to Schultz, Chun.
And likewise with that kind of POWER/and PURSE CONTROL, They could threaten to FIRE THE AD'S AND UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS, REGENTS, etc, of both Oregon, and UW, if they left WSU/ORE ST behind and joined either Big 10, Big 12.

And the WA, Oregon Govt's, could, can, would follow that up by COMPLETELY DEFUNDING, YANKING EVERY PUBLIC TAX DOLLAR AWAY FROM UW/Oregon.

And I'm pretty sure that the leaders of UW/Oregon have gotten some nasty semi private calls, behind the scenes, from INSLEE, Baumgartner, etc, saying something like "You better not leave WSU/Ore St behind, and leave Pac 12, for Big 10 or Big 12, unless the Pac 12 goes the way of the Titanic, disingrates, etc, OR ELSE YOUR FIRED, and the college will be DEFUNDED."

Now if the Pac 12 either doesn't expand, grow in the right way, an or if other team's leave Pac 12, and or if Pac 12 starts to disintegrate beyond losing USC, UCLA, etc, then and only then would Oregon/UW be allowed to leave WSU/Ore St behind, so as to not be stuck in a Pac 5+ of WSU/Ore St, UW/Oregon, Cal, etc.

Basically the Pac 12 will have about 1,2,3+ years to either CHANGE, EXPAND, RENEW ROSEBOWL, MAKE SURE THAT HAVE AT LEAST 1 SEAT AT THE PLAYOFF TABLE, SIGN A 33 MILLION PER TEAM PER YEAR MEDIA DEAL, or NOT CHANGE, NOT EXPAND, start to have other team's besides USC, UCLA, leave Pac 12, start to disintegrate, completely merge with MWC, etc
 

95coug

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It's not just any one single thing, it's a amalgamation, combination of:

UW, OREGON, and all the other Pac 12 colleges(cept USC, UCLA), saying they are staying put.

AND AND

Big 12 OFFICIALLY Stating, saying that they will not(At least for a while), raid Pac 12, and various credible insider sources alluded to by various sources(EITHER Dodd, Wilner, Canzano, etc, etc), backing up what Big 12 said.

AND AND.

Big 10 officially saying they are staying pat, with insider sources, again alluded to by either Dodd, Wilner, Canzano, etc, saying they turned UW, Oregon, Down, but might pursue them at later date, if ND, joins Big 10.

AND AND.

Pac 12 saying, confirming that all remaining colleges staying put, and that would extremely super aggressively pursue expansion. And again insiders backing that up.

AND AND.

WA, and OREGON State Govt's, Governors, state legislatures, Michael Baumgartner saying that they won't let Oregon/UW leave WSU/Ore St behind.

ALL THAT COMBINED TOGETHER, combined with understanding the situation right, reading between the lines MEANS:

That somewhere between the Short and Mid Term(Say ABOUT 6 to 9 to 13 to 17+ months)(Probably no Pac 12 team will announce leaving during this time frame), that the Pac 12 will be staying put together, and will extremely aggressively pursue expansion.

During this time the Pac 12 could easily get Iowa St from Big 12, and BSU, UNLV, SDSU from the MWC, added to Oregon, UW, Stanford, Utah, Cal, Arizona, ASU, Colorado, WSU, Ore St, to become Pac 14. If that at least happens, and then if Rosebowl contract renewed, and if Pac 14 then signs a 33 million per school, per year revenue share, plus bowl game revenue, plus play off revenue, plus 1 Auto play off bid +1 at large play off bid. If that kind of thing happened, likely no more teams would leave Pac 14.

Also the states of WA, and Oregon, HOLD THE PURSE STRINGS/POWER to UW/OREGON. And just like the State of WA Govt, Jay INSLEE, FIRED COACH ROLO, they could have done the same to Schultz, Chun.
And likewise with that kind of POWER/and PURSE CONTROL, They could threaten to FIRE THE AD'S AND UNIVERSITY PRESIDENTS, REGENTS, etc, of both Oregon, and UW, if they left WSU/ORE ST behind and joined either Big 10, Big 12.

And the WA, Oregon Govt's, could, can, would follow that up by COMPLETELY DEFUNDING, YANKING EVERY PUBLIC TAX DOLLAR AWAY FROM UW/Oregon.

And I'm pretty sure that the leaders of UW/Oregon have gotten some nasty semi private calls, behind the scenes, from INSLEE, Baumgartner, etc, saying something like "You better not leave WSU/Ore St behind, and leave Pac 12, for Big 10 or Big 12, unless the Pac 12 goes the way of the Titanic, disingrates, etc, OR ELSE YOUR FIRED, and the college will be DEFUNDED."

Now if the Pac 12 either doesn't expand, grow in the right way, an or if other team's leave Pac 12, and or if Pac 12 starts to disintegrate beyond losing USC, UCLA, etc, then and only then would Oregon/UW be allowed to leave WSU/Ore St behind, so as to not be stuck in a Pac 5+ of WSU/Ore St, UW/Oregon, Cal, etc.

Basically the Pac 12 will have about 1,2,3+ years to either CHANGE, EXPAND, RENEW ROSEBOWL, MAKE SURE THAT HAVE AT LEAST 1 SEAT AT THE PLAYOFF TABLE, SIGN A 33 MILLION PER TEAM PER YEAR MEDIA DEAL, or NOT CHANGE, NOT EXPAND, start to have other team's besides USC, UCLA, leave Pac 12, start to disintegrate, completely merge with MWC, etc
Again…those statements are meaningless.

And if you believe for a second that they can defund the universities over this, it explains a lot.
 

CougFan1980

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Since the Pac12 is all but extinguished the WSU Cougars should join the MWC. It makes sense and the conference is as good as the Pac12. The travel would be better and the revenue would be about the same! Go Cougs!
 

CougPatrol

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Since the Pac12 is all but extinguished the WSU Cougars should join the MWC. It makes sense and the conference is as good as the Pac12. The travel would be better and the revenue would be about the same! Go Cougs!
The revenue won’t be close to the same, but we share a lot more common ground with Oregon State, Boise St, Utah St, Wyoming, Nevada, Fresno, and SDSU than we do with SC, UCLA, UW, Oregon, and the big programs in the B10 and B12; particularly in the emerging NIL era.
 

longtimecoug

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Whatever name it takes, a conference that’s the remaining pac-12 teams plus Mt West teams is probably not a power conference. They’re not going to get money that competes with the rest of the current P-5. They’re going to be much more comparable to the Mtn West.

The only prayer the Pac-12 has for a better deal is to merge with the rest of the Big 12. But even that combined conference doesn’t have a real strong draw and probably doesn’t guarantee a better deal. Plus I don’t see a strong incentive for the B12 to play along.
the big 12 needs an alliance to survive, the pac 12 is all that's out there
 

95coug

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the big 12 needs an alliance to survive, the pac 12 is all that's out there
If the Big 12 survives, it won’t be for long. The major teams are already consolidating into the Big 10 and SEC. Eventually, those are going to be the 2 superconferences. They’ll pull a few teams from the ACC once the finances make sense, and may grab a few more from around the country, but eventually both of those will have 20-24 teams and will be the top tier. Everyone else will be on the outside. In less than a decade.