CFB Saturday - Random Thoughts

[chipdouglas]

• If we don't look past this CU game, WSU stands to jump quite a few spots in the official playoff rankings. Right now we're unranked in that poll (the only one that matters now), but #25 Wisconsin is losing to Northwestern, #24 USC is being blasted by Oregon, #21 Memphis lost, #19 Houston is losing, #18 TCU has a tough road @ #7 Oklahoma

• If you think we would have beat Oregon with a healthy Vernon Davis, you're crazy. They're rolling this season now. It's going to be a fun rivalry in the coming years but the Ducks have a massive head start in talent, facilities and program prestige, and will still likely be better than us more years than not. I look forward to sticking our thumb in their eye periodically - few fanbases have their special combination of knowing less about football, being fairweather fans, or being nastier than Oregon.

• The CFP committee needs to hold an emergency meeting to get rid of the 4th OOC game the SEC and B10 enjoy (the B10 is only doing 3 next year). Some of the fearsome opponents these teams are playing this weekend - in Week 12 (!) - include Florida Atlantic, Charleston Southern, Georgia Southern, Idaho, and Charlotte. Actually, those are just SEC opponents this week. Wow. I don't care that they have some interesting rivalries - because while I'm an SEC fan and alum (as well as WSU), the other conferences should not have to play by a different set of rules so that the SEC can indulge its nostalgia.

• As embarrassing as the SEC schedule is, they make up for it to a degree with strong in-conference opponents. The B10 and ACC have no excuse. Come to think of it, some adjustment has to be made for how horrible the B10 and ACC conferences have been for the last decade. You have 2-3 good teams in each conference (never more than 2 per division) which feast on a schedule of abysmally bad conference opponents and make it to the championship game unscathed and uninjured.

• Independents are an interesting historical artifact, but I think the time has come to level the playing field. In a typical year some end up having tougher-than-usual schedules, some don't. Now that we're trying to make everyone play by the same rules, it stands to reason that nobody is too "special" to not have to join a conference.

• 3 of the Top 4 teams in the current playoff rankings would not be in the Top 4 if they had a typical P12/B12/SEC schedule. Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State are all good teams, yes. But none of them have played better than a Top 25 schedule (Sagarin). The average SoS ranking is #42 for those three schools. If that weren't bad enough, consider that they've struggled (Clemson, tOSU) or lost (Notre Dame) in the more difficult games on that schedule. Make some kind of adjustment for wins vs. quality opponents in that bunch and the quality of resume gets really grim for the Top 4. Alabama, by contrast, has a single loss by 6 points and has run through the rest of its 3rd-ranked schedule like a hot knife through butter.

• On that tip, what would Clemson's, Notre Dame's and Ohio State's W/L record be if they played in the P12, the B12 or the SEC? I have a hard time imagining any of those teams with fewer than 2-3 losses right now. Ohio State's schedule has been particularly pitiful. Having had the #67 SoS schedule this year, they are right now tied up in the 3rd at home vs. an MSU squad which is missing its starting QB. You think they skate through any combination of Oregon, Oklahoma State, Baylor, WSU, Alabama, Cal, TCU, Utah, Oklahoma, Stanford, UCLA, Florida, Ole Miss, Miss St, A&M and LSU? It's literally not fair to all of college football that the B10 and ACC are such atrocious conferences.

• I don't like Utah. They haven't given me any particular reason, but I'd like them to suffer the misery of facing a strong Power 5 schedule for a decade or two before they start to crow about how well they're doing in their new surroundings.

 

[MRICoug]

Meh on Oregon. We are also a different team now than then. Match ups are different team to team and we also played them well with a heirs an winner last year. I refuse to believe the Cougs are the lesser of the two. Agree WSU will move up nicely if we stay focused.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

• If you think we would have beat Oregon with a healthy Vernon Davis, you're crazy.

That is a hell of a thing for you to say about this team, especially considering the way they have clutched up against every opponent. Yeah, Davis is rolling, but so is Falk. The only reason the game was close the first time is because Grinch gameplanned for VD and we had to deal with 2 other quarterbacks. I feel like this Cougar team as a good chance against most teams, and a puncher's chance against the elite teams. Oregon is NOT an elite team - their defense is still abhorrent.

You see, the thing about football is - every time they score, they have to give the ball back to us. And would you like to guess which team in the P12 has the best red zone efficiency? I'll give you 2 but you'll only need one.

I can't believe I'm writing this post, defending the Cougs to a Coug.

 

[Glad Cougar]

UO is in a position to always be a good-to-outstanding team. However, Vernon Adams (not Vernon Davis,) will be gone after this year and unless they've recruited someone who can step in immediately and play at a high level....well, we've seen how important having a difference maker at QB is for the Ducks (and most other teams). I've been told by a UO friend of mine that the best QB in the Duck pipeline is a junior in HS this year.

Glad Cougar

 

[chipdouglas]

That is a hell of a thing for you to say about this team, especially considering the way they have clutched up against every opponent. Yeah, Davis is rolling, but so is Falk. The only reason the game was close the first time is because Grinch gameplanned for VD and we had to deal with 2 other quarterbacks. I feel like this Cougar team as a good chance against most teams, and a puncher's chance against the elite teams. Oregon is NOT an elite team - their defense is still abhorrent.

You see, the thing about football is - every time they score, they have to give the ball back to us. And would you like to guess which team in the P12 has the best red zone efficiency? I'll give you 2 but you'll only need one.

I can't believe I'm writing this post, defending the Cougs to a Coug.

Oh get over it. That's just obnoxious.

Oregon has been ROLLING since they got VD back. They are literally undefeated since he rejoined the team - 5 straight, including 2 ranked teams and and one Top 10 team (Furd) in their own house. Furd beat us in our house. Oregon has not had worse than a Top 21 recruiting class in 5 years (247). We beat Oregon in OT without their starting QB. Would they blow us out? No, but I like them by 10+.

It's not a shameful thing - particularly for a recovering dumpster program like WSU - to drop a game to last year's national championship runner-up in their own house.

I'm proud of the win and it showed guts, but the idea that I automatically have to pretend like it means we're a lock against what is truly a Top 10-15 team in their own house - and like anybody who does is a Benedict Arnold - is homer-ism at its very worst.

 

[kougkurt]

Who is VD

Cougs would have beaten Oregon regardless of who they played at QB

FACT

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Oh get over it. That's just obnoxious.

Oregon has been ROLLING since they got VD back. They are literally undefeated since he rejoined the team - 5 straight, including 2 ranked teams and and one Top 10 team (Furd) in their own house. Furd beat us in our house. Oregon has not had worse than a Top 21 recruiting class in 5 years (247). We beat Oregon in OT without their starting QB. Would they blow us out? No, but I like them by 10+.

It's not a shameful thing - particularly for a recovering dumpster program like WSU - to drop a game to last year's national championship runner-up in their own house.

I'm proud of the win and it showed guts, but the idea that I automatically have to pretend like it means we're a lock against what is truly a Top 10-15 team in their own house - and like anybody who does is a Benedict Arnold - is homer-ism at its very worst.

Oregon gets ROLLED by the first team (read B12/B10/SEC) that puts a decent pass rush on Adams and rings his bell a little bit. They have the luxury of playing in an offense driven league, and they have a good offense. The same could be said of the Cougs. But to sit here and put green colored glasses on and think they are doing something special, when every team in the P12 has shown that they have warts, is to be ignorant of the big picture.

So basically you're saying that their Top 21 recruiting class all took the day off when they played the Cougs - all this lauding of their all their world class talent - none of that was a factor when we played them. We suck but got a lucky break because all their starters were on the bench, is that it? All their top tier O line guys, Freeman... none of those guys played, right? Freeman didn't rack up 200 yards and we still beat them, right? Let me guess, the refs gave us the game, is that it?

Seriously man, its not "homer-ism", its being realistic about the Cougs AND the Ducks and their opponents. I just don't get how you can discount a single W in the middle of the season, when the Cougs hadn't even caught their own stride, and rationalize that it was a meaningless win given the circle jerk that the P12 is.

 

[chipdouglas]

Oregon gets ROLLED by the first team (read B12/B10/SEC) that puts a decent pass rush on Adams and rings his bell a little bit. They have the luxury of playing in an offense driven league, and they have a good offense. The same could be said of the Cougs. But to sit here and put green colored glasses on and think they are doing something special, when every team in the P12 has shown that they have warts, is to be ignorant of the big picture.

So basically you're saying that their Top 21 recruiting class all took the day off when they played the Cougs - all this lauding of their all their world class talent - none of that was a factor when we played them. We suck but got a lucky break because all their starters were on the bench, is that it? All their top tier O line guys, Freeman... none of those guys played, right? Freeman didn't rack up 200 yards and we still beat them, right? Let me guess, the refs gave us the game, is that it?

Seriously man, its not "homer-ism", its being realistic about the Cougs AND the Ducks and their opponents. I just don't get how you can discount a single W in the middle of the season, when the Cougs hadn't even caught their own stride, and rationalize that it was a meaningless win given the circle jerk that the P12 is.

• Claim: with VA in the game, we don't win that game in early October
• Fact: Oregon is substantially better with VA. With him, they are 6-1. Without him, they are 2-2
• Fact: WSU won a gutsy, but extremely close game. We forced overtime with 1 second on the clock, then won by 1 score in 2OT - it was an extremely close/precarious win. An earned win, but a precarious one.
• Fact: having their backup QBs in the game hurt Oregon. Not only backups, but backups who have thrown 6 TDs to 4 INTs this year. Take out the Georgia State tuneup home game and it's 4-4. They're terrible. Anybody - especially the starting QB - would have been an improvement.
• Fact: in close games, if you tip the scales even a millimeter in Oregon's direction - just enough to get an extra FG in regulation, perhaps - that means Oregon walks away with a win.
• Claim: I believe VA is worth at least 2 points a game more than the Oregon backups - and that therefore, his absence was the difference. For your notion to be true, you must believe that he is absolutely no better than the backups. All the evidence says otherwise.

Instead of reading this logically, you are reading between the lines emotionally, and taking my rational skepticism to be a hateful slur against my alma mater. You realize it was only last year that we went 3-9? And now anything but Jim Jones rah-rah Krimson Kool-Aid is unacceptable?

Let's not make delusion a prerequisite of Cougar fandom. The "green-colored glasses" comment is totally insane.

 

[chipdouglas]

Who is VD

Cougs would have beaten Oregon regardless of who they played at QB

FACT

Venereal Disease.

It's almost as bad as his true initials, which are VAJ.

Also... not a fact.

 

[Coug1990]

• Claim: with VA in the game, we don't win that game in early October
• Fact: Oregon is substantially better with VA. With him, they are 6-1. Without him, they are 2-2
• Fact: WSU won a gutsy, but extremely close game. We forced overtime with 1 second on the clock, then won by 1 score in 2OT - it was an extremely close/precarious win. An earned win, but a precarious one.
• Fact: having their backup QBs in the game hurt Oregon. Not only backups, but backups who have thrown 6 TDs to 4 INTs this year. Take out the Georgia State tuneup home game and it's 4-4. They're terrible. Anybody - especially the starting QB - would have been an improvement.
• Fact: in close games, if you tip the scales even a millimeter in Oregon's direction - just enough to get an extra FG in regulation, perhaps - that means Oregon walks away with a win.
• Claim: I believe VA is worth at least 2 points a game more than the Oregon backups - and that therefore, his absence was the difference. For your notion to be true, you must believe that he is absolutely no better than the backups. All the evidence says otherwise.

Instead of reading this logically, you are reading between the lines emotionally, and taking my rational skepticism to be a hateful slur against my alma mater. You realize it was only last year that we went 3-9? And now anything but Jim Jones rah-rah Krimson Kool-Aid is unacceptable?

Let's not make delusion a prerequisite of Cougar fandom. The "green-colored glasses" comment is totally insane.

This is the way that I think about this. It will forever go down as a 45-38 WSU win.