Charles Barkley
- Thread starter Lollapalousa
- Start date
The only prediction that matters is yours. Do we lose by one touchdown, or two, Carnac?
Actually, I see us losing something like 34-15.
Taking this in a (slightly) more serious direction, this game looks to me like it will come down to just a handful of things.
1.) AF will win time of possession and run for a lot of yards. So long as they only do it 2 or 3 at a time, we should win, because at 3 (or even occasionally 4) per play, they can't afford a play that mis-fires. Unless of course they have the same approach as CML with regard to going for it on 4th down in a rather large swath of the field. The flip side is that if we let them get 5 or more yards very often, it will be a tough game.
2.) Option offenses put a premium on the D's lateral speed and ability to defeat blocks while moving laterally. That is probably the strength of our D. Option offenses really wear out a D if they can sustain drives. Hence we need to make sure they have at least one low or no gain play in a series. Traditionally the single most important set of play is from the DE's; they have a tough job against a well run option. How good are our DE's? I'm honestly not 100% sure against an option, though their performance against Oregon suggests that they can do the job. Also, defenses disrupt options with run blitzes; that is potentially a double-edged sword, since if it works you stop them cold, but if it doesn't you risk giving up a long gain. I suspect that we will blitz some, but the lowest risk approach is to first try to contain them without blitzing. If we do that, we win. If we don't, it could be a long day.
3.) We will be rotating D players, because by the end of the 3rd quarter our guys will be tired. The play of our defense's 2's when they see the field may well be the difference in the game. I'll note that while Mountain West teams often have a group of 1's that are competitive with a P5 team, they often can't say the same about their 2's. If that is true, then AF probably benefitted in most 4th quarters of their league games by seeing either very tired 1's or a drop off in the 2's. I suspect that our D 2's, while greener than the 1's, are probably not as big a drop off as AF saw in their league play.
4.) AF has had some games when they turned the ball over several times. I assume the conditions will be dry in Phoenix. That helps our D's footing but helps their O's ball security. If they have another 3 TO game they will lose.
5.) When it is all said and done, I suspect that our O's turnovers will decide the game. We can probably afford to be -1 on TO's if our O is clicking. Against a ball control offense, I would not want to be any worse than that. If we are + on TO's, then we win. If we score more than about 33 points, we win. If we are + on TO's, we should easily score more than 33 points.
6.) And you'll notice that I said nothing about special teams, because I expect that at this point in the season they will be an asset.
1.) AF will win time of possession and run for a lot of yards. So long as they only do it 2 or 3 at a time, we should win, because at 3 (or even occasionally 4) per play, they can't afford a play that mis-fires. Unless of course they have the same approach as CML with regard to going for it on 4th down in a rather large swath of the field. The flip side is that if we let them get 5 or more yards very often, it will be a tough game.
2.) Option offenses put a premium on the D's lateral speed and ability to defeat blocks while moving laterally. That is probably the strength of our D. Option offenses really wear out a D if they can sustain drives. Hence we need to make sure they have at least one low or no gain play in a series. Traditionally the single most important set of play is from the DE's; they have a tough job against a well run option. How good are our DE's? I'm honestly not 100% sure against an option, though their performance against Oregon suggests that they can do the job. Also, defenses disrupt options with run blitzes; that is potentially a double-edged sword, since if it works you stop them cold, but if it doesn't you risk giving up a long gain. I suspect that we will blitz some, but the lowest risk approach is to first try to contain them without blitzing. If we do that, we win. If we don't, it could be a long day.
3.) We will be rotating D players, because by the end of the 3rd quarter our guys will be tired. The play of our defense's 2's when they see the field may well be the difference in the game. I'll note that while Mountain West teams often have a group of 1's that are competitive with a P5 team, they often can't say the same about their 2's. If that is true, then AF probably benefitted in most 4th quarters of their league games by seeing either very tired 1's or a drop off in the 2's. I suspect that our D 2's, while greener than the 1's, are probably not as big a drop off as AF saw in their league play.
4.) AF has had some games when they turned the ball over several times. I assume the conditions will be dry in Phoenix. That helps our D's footing but helps their O's ball security. If they have another 3 TO game they will lose.
5.) When it is all said and done, I suspect that our O's turnovers will decide the game. We can probably afford to be -1 on TO's if our O is clicking. Against a ball control offense, I would not want to be any worse than that. If we are + on TO's, then we win. If we score more than about 33 points, we win. If we are + on TO's, we should easily score more than 33 points.
6.) And you'll notice that I said nothing about special teams, because I expect that at this point in the season they will be an asset.
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