DTR
- Thread starter SDCoug
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I saw that too. I don’t think you can ignore the portal or JC talent. If it were me I’d prob focus on 90% high school kids. If you can pick up a starter/impact player, fine. If you’re using transfers as free agents trying to build one year teams, I’d pass.
The game evolves, and this staff hire is a prime example. IMHO the past 15 years have seen a real trend to the blue blood programs recruiting multiple guys and lying to them all about competition and PT. Sure, it always happened, but the internet, scholarship limits and academic rules have actually made it worse. We old farts know that there will only be one MLB (at most) playing in a 4 man front D, yet the business model during recruiting is to tell the kid that they badly need HIM...despite the crowd of 4 & even 5 * ahead of him on the roster for that one spot. Reality is suspended during recruiting, however. The result is a lot of very good kids who might never see the field if it were not for special teams. And we are positioned exactly right to appeal to those kids.
The same 5 or 6 teams in the playoffs every year get the same lions share of the top talent every year. It is like the same 4 NFL teams being in the AFC and NFC championship games... then drafting 1-50 the next year.
I can’t fault a kid for wanting to play for a big school. Nor do I fault a university for spending the money needed to attract that level of talent.
What is amazing to me is the piss poor salesmanship by other schools. It is amazing to me how kids get sold on sitting. Why would you sit for 2 years at a P5 school waiting your turn... When you could start for 4 years at another P5 school???? You NEED those game reps. The 2 days per week you get to practice with limited reps isnt going to make you better. Being on the field, getting all the reps, makes you better. When your career is done, do you want 48+ games for the NFL to watch? Or 24?
The chance to win a national championship and being a starter for that one year is a strong incentive to sit on the bench for a few years, just to get that ring. Sure you could play 4 years at another school go to a minor bowl each year, and enjoy football, and still get drafted. Neither choice is wrong, it's just a matter what you are looking for.
If that's what kids want to do, fine. It will come down to what a kid wants and how he fits into the program. Some kids will be able to step onto Alabama's practice field and win a starting job from day one. Others won't.
You get 4 years of eligibility. Why would you spend 25% to 75% of your time not playing? If you are looking to get a job in the NFL you need a resume. A resume with 4 years of game film, 4 years of game experience, 4 years of working within a scheme and implementing it on game day etc has value. More value than 1 good year? Dunno. Better be a pretty good year.
These kids have been the creme of the crop athletes their entire childhood and run circles around their competition--they have no concept of being second best, and I'd bet every single one of them thinks they're going to be the man being recruited as 4/5 star athletes to the premier football program in the country. Obviously you're right that many of them won't, but you're using logic and hindsight of an experienced adult, something these kids don't have.
JC has changed as well. While there are not a lot more football JC colleges, there is either a wee little tiny bit more football JC Colleges, or the same as number of them as before.
Whats changed is that there is a bigger awareness and use of JC transfers.
And JC Transfers and JC colleges are also aware and trying to meet the need, demand.
Another change is more JC Transfers Transfering after their freshman year, skipping their sophmore year in JC.
This means that when get a JC Transfer you can more often have one that can either play for 3 years or Redshirt, then play for 2 years.
Also there are a lot of colleges who have followed KSU's example of using JC's to build their program successfully.
As to what WSU should do.
I wouldnt go 90% HS freshman.
I would go about 5% to 10% Grad Transfers
About 10% to 15% to 20% JC Transfers
About 15% to 20% to 25% Transfer Portal Transfers
About 63% to 67% to 73% to 77% non Transfer, non JC, HS freshman.
The Transfer Portal transfer would be about a even mix of sophmore, Junior Transfers
The JC Transfers would be about a even mix of sophmore JC, and Junior JC.
I would Redshirt about half of the Sophmore JC, and about 1/4 of Junior JC.
I would Redshirt about 1/4 to 1/2 of freshmen/soph Transfer Portals.
I would not generally redshirt Junior Transfer Portals, and Grad Transfers.
I would use the Transfer Portal, Grad Transfers, JC's to generally fill holes.
HS Freshmen used to generally build the future of the program.
In rare limited exceptions, I would use freshmen, sophmore Transfer Portal Transfers, and Sophmore JC, 3 to play 2,3, to build the future of the program like HS freshman.
If WSU did this it would work for WSU.
I suspect that Rolo also knows this and why the creation of a Transfer Recruiting position.
You dont create a Transfer Recruiting position if your going to go with 90% to 95% HS freshman, and 5% to 10% Transfers as Biggs semi wrongly suggested.
2 extremes:
1. To much HS freshman(90% to 95% to 100%)
2. To much transfers, too little HS freshman.
About 65% to 83% HS freshman is the right middle ground between the 2 extremes
I’m sorry but your precise percentages always have me busting out laughing
Agree. What I question is the salesmanship. How is it no one has shown kids who gets drafted and who doesn’t? How many games and starts do those kids have under their belt? How many 1 year starters, in the grand scheme of the draft and NFL, are really getting top dollar from being a top pick? No one is able to counter the shiny stuff and luxury lifestyle pitch effectively with more playing time leading to more NFL dollars.
Ya know who is important to WSU? Ayden Hector. If he plays 4 years and marches off to NFL millions that is a success story WSU has to sell to every 4/5 star DB recruit on the West Coast.
Good point, unfortunately, that might probably not happen, because Hector is SUSPENDED for breaking team rules.
Not sure if he is permanently suspended or gone, or if he stays.
But if he had not gotten himself suspended, there is no doubt in my mind that he might have probably been at least a semi probable potential future potential NFL/NFL draft/1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round PROSPECT.
But with him getting suspended, I doubt it.
Either even if he stays, gets reinstated, he might probably get himself suspended again, an or have a bad attitude about the matter that could cause laziness, less effort, playing down, misplaying, etc.
Now he still might stay, get reinstated, play well, make NFL, etc, but I doubt it, and I would be pleasantly surprised if that were to happen.
But agree with you that WSU needs either Ayden Hector an or another 4,5 star to transfer to WSU, then to play well, then to goto NFL, in order to help WSU sell, recruit more of that, build a pipeline.
I think as a recruiter, for the most part I use the same analysis I’d give my own kid.
There are 130 FBS teams. There are 85 scholarship players (max) on each. That’s 11,050 kids per year on a roster. You’re good, and you’re getting a scholarship. You’re one of the 11,050. Congratulations. But here’s the deal, kid. Most of you have less than 4 years left in your football career.
You and 3,249 other high school seniors are going to be on a roster this fall. A third of you won’t make it through your senior year. Of the 2,000 or so who do...255 of you might get drafted. 180 will ever wear an NFL uniform, less than 100 will wear it long enough to make real money. 93% of you will be done playing football 4 years from now. 97% of you won’t make a living on it.
So, here’s what I want you to think about:
If you want to play NFL football, do you think you’re in the top 3% of players right now, and do you think you can stay there for 4 years? Do you think the NFL will believe you’re in the top 3% while you’re standing on the sidelines at USC or Alabama, waiting behind a kid who’s 2 years older or splitting time with someone else who signed today? You’ve got about 45 games to show them what you are. Would you rather wait through 24 games for your chance, or do you want to start showing them in September?
If you don’t think you’ll make the NFL...you’ve got about 45 games left in your life. Do you want to watch them, or do you want to play in them?
The kids are sold on lifestyle. They want all of the luxury Oregon offers. It is a smoke screen. You go to college to PLAY football. You dont go to clap on the sidelines.
All these kids line up to go to Alabama. I get it. Cool school, great program, tons of success, tons of guys going to the NFL. Here’s the thing... Any SEC school gives you SEC game film. Why the **** would you sit for 24 games out of a possible 48 regular season games, when you could go somewhere and PLAY in those 24 games right away? Its the same league. All SEC game film...
I swear some of these coaches cant sell shit. Hell, even if a kid takes $$$ to go to a school, what is the value of those first couple years being on the field??? Why would you trade that for money??
Sales skill is a critical aspect of success in many areas of professional life. Even guys who we don't think of as selling...pick a research scientist, as one example...have to get their programs sold up their internal food chain, and have to attract grants. Or design engineers...they have to sell their concepts, and a part of justifying their decisions to both management and their peers relies on sales skills. Having said all that, it is obvious that sales skill is important in NCAA football. Mike Leach was an outlier in terms of being the "anti-sales" personality. Sometimes you can be so far the other direction that the uniqueness can work with at least some people, but there is room for only so many folks in a narrow niche like that. And you better have a track record like Leach's if you are going to try to spend all of your time in that mode. The bulk of the HC's, as Biggs suggests, are very weak at putting across the idea of PT over bling, or PT over a really famous and studly bench upon which they spend 2-4 years. For those kids who genuinely fantasize about the NFL, PT is crucial. There are tons of great athletes in college football, and to differentiate yourself you need two things above all else: on field experience; and a resume of accomplishments. How do you get that from the sideline???? And if the NFL is not your goal, and you simply love the game, wouldn't you want more time on the field to offset all the hard work in the weight room and at practice? Doesn't it seem like a HC should be able to sell that? I will say that Rolo seems from a distance to have a clue about all of that. Let's see what he does post-Covid. The entire NCAA is facing some EXTREMELY weird number dynamics due to the "covid year doesn't count in eligibility" rule. There will be some really great kids available over the next 2-3 years as the "bump" of extra kids works itself through the system. If any staff...ideally, assisted by the HC...can sell, this will be an opportunity to get some really good kids. From a talent recruitment standpoint, it will be a buyer's market unlike any we've ever seen, before or since. And not just with HS kids...As the blue blood programs try to make room for HS kids, they will be running off a whole bunch of highly rated kids who did not flourish in their first 1-3 years, as well as kids who got their degree but redshirted, and have a year still to play. The portal will be busy, and a lot of kids will be coming from the football factories.
Programs are gonna have to get right with the 85 rides at some point. You saw some small classes in the PAC 12 this year. I know of one team that took 0 high school kids this year. They took all transfers. I am assuming they are calling their 2020 class they're 2021 class. They filled in holes on the roster with transfers. Now they're moving forward.
If it's me.... if I get hired and have a 5 year contract, I know that going into year's 4 and 5 I better have something on the field worth watching. Im taking 22 HS kids and 3 transfers in every class until the numbers tell me I can't. Im not going to go into the last year of my contract with a young team. I want vets on the field. I want as many high school kids to have grown into my schemes as possible.
The prob Rolo has is kids coming back, kids leaving, kids coming in and how to manage it all.
Biggs, as you note, Rolo and every other P5 HC will be juggling those things: "kids leaving, kids coming in and how to manage it all". It will be interesting to see how they do. Those that botch it all together, or who go too heavy for short term gain but bite themselves longer term, will be revealed over the course of a couple of seasons. If you were a coach on the hot seat today, you would probably look at the portal as a golden opportunity to try to shore up your situation...but as you point out, if you go too far that direction, years 4 & 5 could look pretty gloomy. Still, if you are a HC who currently does not look likely to survive to year 4, the portal temptation could be irresistible. There will be some empty cupboards for new HC's to inherit 3-5 years down the road...
I think we probably will have several threads this summer on how that Covid bump and the 85 total looks to be moving at various teams in the league. By summer we will know how it worked out for the bulk of the portal entrants, as well as having a clear picture of which teams "over booked" and had to bring in people as walk ons. There certainly appears to be more kids available as walk ons than usual, since so many kids appear to not have a scholarship place to land. I expect to see a lot of that. What I haven't wrapped my head around yet is what it will look like for the G5 schools. I expect some of them to get several P5 transfers...but they have exactly the same Covid bump/85 max issues that the P5 has. It will be interesting to see how they (the MWC, in particular, since they are easy for us to follow) handle it.
I think we probably will have several threads this summer on how that Covid bump and the 85 total looks to be moving at various teams in the league. By summer we will know how it worked out for the bulk of the portal entrants, as well as having a clear picture of which teams "over booked" and had to bring in people as walk ons. There certainly appears to be more kids available as walk ons than usual, since so many kids appear to not have a scholarship place to land. I expect to see a lot of that. What I haven't wrapped my head around yet is what it will look like for the G5 schools. I expect some of them to get several P5 transfers...but they have exactly the same Covid bump/85 max issues that the P5 has. It will be interesting to see how they (the MWC, in particular, since they are easy for us to follow) handle it.
On the surface, it seems like there should be a lot of opportunity for immediate improvement for a lot of teams. With the 85 scholarship limit still in place, and high school players coming in at the normal pace, there's going to be a logjam of players. There's going to be kids left without a chair when the music stops. The upper tier teams will try to purge the upperclassmen who didn't quite pan out, and replace them with younger talent. Some of those displaced will hang it up, others will look for a new school for their last year or two. They may be able to play immediately on another team, displacing another player or HS recruit. Sort of a CFB trickle-down theory.
Coaches could use this to make themselves look pretty good if they play it right. There's likely to be a serious glut of available talent, so if they have scholarships available they could make fast upgrades at critical positions. In the G-5 and FCS, it could be like fishing with dynamite.
It's a bit of a strange scenario with everyone getting an extra year, almost like a do-over for recruiting. You just can't make the same mistakes you did in the last cycle. In a normal year, i think transfers should be no more than 3-4 members of your class, and only to fill unexpected needs - early departures, retirements, or the occasional depth/development deficiencies. But, since your 2020 class is still freshmen, maybe you can afford to go a little heavier on transfers in 2021. I'd still keep it under 5-6, preferably at spots where I just need a bridge to a HS recruit who's not quite ready. But if there's a kid who's a clear upgrade at a spot I need now, its hard not to at least have a conversation.
Coming back to this new position, Director of Transfer Recruiting, I browsed the other conference team sites. Nobody has this position. We’re calling it out as a specific need while others, at least for now, are lumping it in with the recruiting duties of current staff. It would appear that we are more forward thinking than our peers. At least on this front. That is somewhat encouraging. We’ll see if that pays dividends.
Agree, and given the numbers involved, I can see how it requires resources to handle properly.
