Ducks vs Fuskies; Stats

[cr8zyncalif]

I got curious and spent some time on the PAC 12 statistics site. If you simply look at the stats, this game should not be close. A few items were pretty comparable; UO had 9 fumbles with 4 lost; UW had 8 fumbles with 4 lost. UO was 6-12 on 4th down attempts; UW was 7-15. UO D had 11 int and 17 sacks; UW had 8 int and 15 sacks. UW even was way ahead in one category: UW has had 35 penalties for 317 yards; UO has had 60 penalties for 575 yards.

But...the UW offense is anemic. UO has 443 ypg, UW has 353 ypg, and the difference is pretty much all in rushing. UO has 205 ypg, 5.3 ypc. UW has 123 ypg, 3.6 ypc. That translates into their red zone performance. UO was 28-36 in red zone TD's; UW was 15-24.

We are deep enough into the season that relative non-con strength and "who did you play" in the league have kinda sorta evened out...at least enough to get a general idea of what is happening.

Between that little statistics dive and what I've seen so far, I can only see a couple of ways that UW doesn't get stomped. Any of these things could help the Fuskies, but without something like this I'm thinking it is over in the 3rd quarter:

- The ducks could turn the ball over in a manner similar to ASU last week.
- The fuskies could break a long special teams play or two.
- The ducks could lose their QB in the first quarter.
- The ducks have their worst focus & concentration game of the season and have a dozen or more penalties (this one seems the most likely of any on this list).

I think the fuskies need at least 2 out of 4 from the above list to have a chance.

Finally, although Oregon's coaching staff gets paid a lot, they are not particularly gifted. In many PAC games I'd call the coaching staff competition between Oregon and their opponent to be about even. But UW is so poor in that area...this is even a game where the ducks have a coaching advantage.

If you want to see a contest, be sure you watch the opening of the game. May not be much to watch after halftime.

 

[95coug]

I got curious and spent some time on the PAC 12 statistics site. If you simply look at the stats, this game should not be close. A few items were pretty comparable; UO had 9 fumbles with 4 lost; UW had 8 fumbles with 4 lost. UO was 6-12 on 4th down attempts; UW was 7-15. UO D had 11 int and 17 sacks; UW had 8 int and 15 sacks. UW even was way ahead in one category: UW has had 35 penalties for 317 yards; UO has had 60 penalties for 575 yards.

But...the UW offense is anemic. UO has 443 ypg, UW has 353 ypg, and the difference is pretty much all in rushing. UO has 205 ypg, 5.3 ypc. UW has 123 ypg, 3.6 ypc. That translates into their red zone performance. UO was 28-36 in red zone TD's; UW was 15-24.

We are deep enough into the season that relative non-con strength and "who did you play" in the league have kinda sorta evened out...at least enough to get a general idea of what is happening.

Between that little statistics dive and what I've seen so far, I can only see a couple of ways that UW doesn't get stomped. Any of these things could help the Fuskies, but without something like this I'm thinking it is over in the 3rd quarter:

- The ducks could turn the ball over in a manner similar to ASU last week.
- The fuskies could break a long special teams play or two.
- The ducks could lose their QB in the first quarter.
- The ducks have their worst focus & concentration game of the season and have a dozen or more penalties (this one seems the most likely of any on this list).

I think the fuskies need at least 2 out of 4 from the above list to have a chance.

Finally, although Oregon's coaching staff gets paid a lot, they are not particularly gifted. In many PAC games I'd call the coaching staff competition between Oregon and their opponent to be about even. But UW is so poor in that area...this is even a game where the ducks have a coaching advantage.

If you want to see a contest, be sure you watch the opening of the game. May not be much to watch after halftime.

Said it earlier this week - I want to see a Duck blowout. Keeps the Husky honks quiet, and raises the odds of an overconfident and complacent Duck team the following week.

 

[79COUG]

I got curious and spent some time on the PAC 12 statistics site. If you simply look at the stats, this game should not be close. A few items were pretty comparable; UO had 9 fumbles with 4 lost; UW had 8 fumbles with 4 lost. UO was 6-12 on 4th down attempts; UW was 7-15. UO D had 11 int and 17 sacks; UW had 8 int and 15 sacks. UW even was way ahead in one category: UW has had 35 penalties for 317 yards; UO has had 60 penalties for 575 yards.

But...the UW offense is anemic. UO has 443 ypg, UW has 353 ypg, and the difference is pretty much all in rushing. UO has 205 ypg, 5.3 ypc. UW has 123 ypg, 3.6 ypc. That translates into their red zone performance. UO was 28-36 in red zone TD's; UW was 15-24.

We are deep enough into the season that relative non-con strength and "who did you play" in the league have kinda sorta evened out...at least enough to get a general idea of what is happening.

Between that little statistics dive and what I've seen so far, I can only see a couple of ways that UW doesn't get stomped. Any of these things could help the Fuskies, but without something like this I'm thinking it is over in the 3rd quarter:

- The ducks could turn the ball over in a manner similar to ASU last week.
- The fuskies could break a long special teams play or two.
- The ducks could lose their QB in the first quarter.
- The ducks have their worst focus & concentration game of the season and have a dozen or more penalties (this one seems the most likely of any on this list).

I think the fuskies need at least 2 out of 4 from the above list to have a chance.

Finally, although Oregon's coaching staff gets paid a lot, they are not particularly gifted. In many PAC games I'd call the coaching staff competition between Oregon and their opponent to be about even. But UW is so poor in that area...this is even a game where the ducks have a coaching advantage.

If you want to see a contest, be sure you watch the opening of the game. May not be much to watch after halftime.

You left out the ewe's obvious "academic prowess" advantage. That alone could tip the scales in the mutts favor!

 

[Coug90]

I got curious and spent some time on the PAC 12 statistics site. If you simply look at the stats, this game should not be close. A few items were pretty comparable; UO had 9 fumbles with 4 lost; UW had 8 fumbles with 4 lost. UO was 6-12 on 4th down attempts; UW was 7-15. UO D had 11 int and 17 sacks; UW had 8 int and 15 sacks. UW even was way ahead in one category: UW has had 35 penalties for 317 yards; UO has had 60 penalties for 575 yards.

But...the UW offense is anemic. UO has 443 ypg, UW has 353 ypg, and the difference is pretty much all in rushing. UO has 205 ypg, 5.3 ypc. UW has 123 ypg, 3.6 ypc. That translates into their red zone performance. UO was 28-36 in red zone TD's; UW was 15-24.

We are deep enough into the season that relative non-con strength and "who did you play" in the league have kinda sorta evened out...at least enough to get a general idea of what is happening.

Between that little statistics dive and what I've seen so far, I can only see a couple of ways that UW doesn't get stomped. Any of these things could help the Fuskies, but without something like this I'm thinking it is over in the 3rd quarter:

- The ducks could turn the ball over in a manner similar to ASU last week.
- The fuskies could break a long special teams play or two.
- The ducks could lose their QB in the first quarter.
- The ducks have their worst focus & concentration game of the season and have a dozen or more penalties (this one seems the most likely of any on this list).

I think the fuskies need at least 2 out of 4 from the above list to have a chance.

Finally, although Oregon's coaching staff gets paid a lot, they are not particularly gifted. In many PAC games I'd call the coaching staff competition between Oregon and their opponent to be about even. But UW is so poor in that area...this is even a game where the ducks have a coaching advantage.

If you want to see a contest, be sure you watch the opening of the game. May not be much to watch after halftime.

Ouch, 3.6 ypc? This is not the same UW we are used to pounding us into the turf in AC. Looking at those stats and seeing them a couple of times this year along with how our defense is playing, we’d have to shit the bed magnificently to lose to them. Not that we haven’t accomplished that feat many times in the past….
As for Oregon, I’ve not been impressed with them either and as mentioned before think we have a very real chance to take them in Eugene. I don’t think they go crazy and drop 50 on UW, I see more of a comfortable 34-16 kind of win.

 

[bogusto]

I got curious and spent some time on the PAC 12 statistics site. If you simply look at the stats, this game should not be close. A few items were pretty comparable; UO had 9 fumbles with 4 lost; UW had 8 fumbles with 4 lost. UO was 6-12 on 4th down attempts; UW was 7-15. UO D had 11 int and 17 sacks; UW had 8 int and 15 sacks. UW even was way ahead in one category: UW has had 35 penalties for 317 yards; UO has had 60 penalties for 575 yards.

But...the UW offense is anemic. UO has 443 ypg, UW has 353 ypg, and the difference is pretty much all in rushing. UO has 205 ypg, 5.3 ypc. UW has 123 ypg, 3.6 ypc. That translates into their red zone performance. UO was 28-36 in red zone TD's; UW was 15-24.

We are deep enough into the season that relative non-con strength and "who did you play" in the league have kinda sorta evened out...at least enough to get a general idea of what is happening.

Between that little statistics dive and what I've seen so far, I can only see a couple of ways that UW doesn't get stomped. Any of these things could help the Fuskies, but without something like this I'm thinking it is over in the 3rd quarter:

- The ducks could turn the ball over in a manner similar to ASU last week.
- The fuskies could break a long special teams play or two.
- The ducks could lose their QB in the first quarter.
- The ducks have their worst focus & concentration game of the season and have a dozen or more penalties (this one seems the most likely of any on this list).

I think the fuskies need at least 2 out of 4 from the above list to have a chance.

Finally, although Oregon's coaching staff gets paid a lot, they are not particularly gifted. In many PAC games I'd call the coaching staff competition between Oregon and their opponent to be about even. But UW is so poor in that area...this is even a game where the ducks have a coaching advantage.

If you want to see a contest, be sure you watch the opening of the game. May not be much to watch after halftime.

The Fuskies absolutely stuffed the Stanford offense, something the Ducks weren't able to do. At least on their last drive, the Fusky QB looked competent. I saw signs of improvement and dread the thought it might translate into a strong finish for the Ba-----------rds.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

line is Oregon -7.0, which I find shocking.

That being said, Oregon is Oregon, these teams have bad blood, and UW has a way of finding lightning in a bottle.

 

[Coug90]

line is Oregon -7.0, which I find shocking.

That being said, Oregon is Oregon, these teams have bad blood, and UW has a way of finding lightning in a bottle.

I don’t think UW has any chance to win this game. That said, Oregon doesn’t seem to really put the screws to teams the way they have in the past when they have been really talented. Is to me a sign of poor coaching and player discipline. So I don’t expect a big blowout, but I expect Ducks should cover. But a few wacky plays go UWs way, you never know….

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Pretty good prediction, 90!

 

[Coug90]

Pretty good prediction, 90!

Thanks! Almost nailed it if Ducks didn’t brain-fart their way 30 yards backward from the two yard line.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Ouch, 3.6 ypc? This is not the same UW we are used to pounding us into the turf in AC. Looking at those stats and seeing them a couple of times this year along with how our defense is playing, we’d have to shit the bed magnificently to lose to them. Not that we haven’t accomplished that feat many times in the past….
As for Oregon, I’ve not been impressed with them either and as mentioned before think we have a very real chance to take them in Eugene. I don’t think they go crazy and drop 50 on UW, I see more of a comfortable 34-16 kind of win.

Thanks! Almost nailed it if Ducks didn’t brain-fart their way 30 yards backward from the two yard line.

Yup! I was thinking you would be really close...then the meltdown occurred.