ESPN+ has their Pac-12 North Preview Out

[Flatlandcoug]

Just got through reading the ESPN+ Insider Pac-12 North Preview. Their projected finishes are the following (rounded as I saw fit).

Oregon 10-2 (7-1)
UW 10-2 (7-1)
WSU 7-5 (4-5)
Cal 6-6 (4-5)
OSU 5-7 (3-6)
Stanford 4-8 (2-7)

They actually project us with 6.3 wins which I rounded to seven because they gave us the best chance to finish 4-5 in conference. We could flip-flop below Cal very easily. It's baffling to see how far that Stanford has fallen. For both Oregon and UW, their actual win projections at this point (9.3 and 9.4) are saying that both teams could easily end up with another loss.

 

[etowncoug]

6 to 7 wins is where I think we should be. If ESPN agrees, I think I've set a reasonable expectation of how the team should do.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

ESPN+ has a much more positive take on WSU's record than I do.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

I will be very surprised if UW manages 10 wins, even with their soft schedule. Yes, they play Michigan...but Michigan is a shadow of their former selves. Still, that game is probably a coin flip. They miss USC and Utah...the two toughest South teams. Even with all that, I can't see the Huskies only dropping 2 games.

Cal is a huge question mark. You have no idea what team will show up from week to week.

And Stanford? Are they really that bad? Hard to believe they are picked to be the bottom of the north....but maybe they really are that bad?

 

[triscuit one]

Hard to figure out this season, mainly due the QB position. To me it almost feels like whatever letter grade we give to our QB will be our grade for the season.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Just got through reading the ESPN+ Insider Pac-12 North Preview. Their projected finishes are the following (rounded as I saw fit).

Oregon 10-2 (7-1)
UW 10-2 (7-1)
WSU 7-5 (4-5)
Cal 6-6 (4-5)
OSU 5-7 (3-6)
Stanford 4-8 (2-7)

They actually project us with 6.3 wins which I rounded to seven because they gave us the best chance to finish 4-5 in conference. We could flip-flop below Cal very easily. It's baffling to see how far that Stanford has fallen. For both Oregon and UW, their actual win projections at this point (9.3 and 9.4) are saying that both teams could easily end up with another loss.

Bill Conneley isn't the usual P12 beat writer, or at least isn't the guy (who's name escapes me) who would regularly crap all over the cougs, mostly because he couldn't be bothered to do any research.

That being said, 7 wins is a super optimistic prediction, and I'll take it.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I will be very surprised if UW manages 10 wins, even with their soft schedule. Yes, they play Michigan...but Michigan is a shadow of their former selves. Still, that game is probably a coin flip. They miss USC and Utah...the two toughest South teams. Even with all that, I can't see the Huskies only dropping 2 games.

Cal is a huge question mark. You have no idea what team will show up from week to week.

And Stanford? Are they really that bad? Hard to believe they are picked to be the bottom of the north....but maybe they really are that bad?

ESPN actually agrees that 9 wins is more likely than 10 for UW. That said, according to the SP+, the mutts are currently favored in 11 out of 12 games.....but ASU and Michigan are the only "toss-up" games in their viewpoint and statistically, they are figured at 9.3 wins. ESPN views the rest of the north as flawed enough that Oregon is their only real threat (hard to argue with that) and they don't play Utah or USC this year. They've got a gift wrapped schedule for a good season.

 

[Coug1990]

I am curious to see how well the huskies defense plays. They lost DC Pete Kwiatkowski to Texas. In my opinion, he was the real architect of the defense, not Jimmy Lake. I can see them be OK next season, and get progressively worse the further the players are away from being coached by Kwiatkowski

 

[etowncoug]

Bill Conneley isn't the usual P12 beat writer, or at least isn't the guy (who's name escapes me) who would regularly crap all over the cougs, mostly because he couldn't be bothered to do any research.

That being said, 7 wins is a super optimistic prediction, and I'll take it.

Why is 7 wins super optimistic? We play Utah St, Portland St, Oregon St, Arizona, and Stanford in Pullman. That's five should win games. Cal, BYU, UW and Utah are coin flips. ASU looks tough but they might fire their staff between now and then. Oregon and USC are the only match ups where we don't have much of a shot going in.

 

[triscuit one]

I don't see OSU and Stanford as "locks" and think that UW and Utah are more then a coin flips, but truthfully I'm not sure what Utah is returning. We need above average QB play and remain healthy and I think we have a solid shot at 7 wins, but it no gimmie. It's not like we have a roster full of talent that we just need to show up to beat even the bottom dwellers of the Pac.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Why is 7 wins super optimistic? We play Utah St, Portland St, Oregon St, Arizona, and Stanford in Pullman. That's five should win games. Cal, BYU, UW and Utah are coin flips. ASU looks tough but they might fire their staff between now and then. Oregon and USC are the only match ups where we don't have much of a shot going in.

If you think that UW is a coin flip game......you must have terrible luck flipping coins.

You may not have been able to watch TV last year due to the pandemic and maybe you were too busy to watch the Utah game in 2019......but the Utes have smothered us two times in a row. If not for a miraculous play in 2018.......we'd probably have a three game losing streak against the Utes. Utah is not a coin flip game in any way. If we beat them, it will be a significant upset.

I do agree with you on the list of "should win" games and I like our chances against BYU. Cal is the only other game on the schedule that we have left where we can really say, "We've got this". Oregon, USC, Utah and UW are clearly superior teams right now. Before the ASU news came out, I'd have given us very little chance to beat the Sun Devils. Tempe has been a hellhole for WSU for two decades. The Cougs are 1-7 in Tempe since our win there in 2001 with most of the losses being brutal beatdowns. We'll see how the Sun Devils react to the NCAA investigation. As you said, they may need to clean house.

I'm still excited about our future with Rolovich, but we have a lot to prove before we can assume that we can hang with UW or Utah.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Why is 7 wins super optimistic? We play Utah St, Portland St, Oregon St, Arizona, and Stanford in Pullman. That's five should win games. Cal, BYU, UW and Utah are coin flips. ASU looks tough but they might fire their staff between now and then. Oregon and USC are the only match ups where we don't have much of a shot going in.

Because we don't have a qb, at least that we know of. I don't see last season's JDL winning 7, so either he has to make a quantum leap or someone else emerges from the bench to lead us. Either of those could happen, but believing that it will is optimistic imho.

 

[Wasichus]

If you think that UW is a coin flip game......you must have terrible luck flipping coins.

You may not have been able to watch TV last year due to the pandemic and maybe you were too busy to watch the Utah game in 2019......but the Utes have smothered us two times in a row. If not for a miraculous play in 2018.......we'd probably have a three game losing streak against the Utes. Utah is not a coin flip game in any way. If we beat them, it will be a significant upset.

I do agree with you on the list of "should win" games and I like our chances against BYU. Cal is the only othear game on the schedule that we have left where we can really say, "We've got this". Oregon, USC, Utah and UW are clearly superior teams right now. Before the ASU news came out, I'd have given us very little chance to beat the Sun Devils. Tempe has been a hellhole for WSU for two decades. The Cougs are 1-7 in Tempe since our win there in 2001 with most of the losses being brutal beatdowns. We'll see how the Sun Devils react to the NCAA investigation. As you said, they may need to clean house.

I'm still excited about our future with Rolovich, but we have a lot to prove before we can assume that we can hang with UW or Utah.

In what "Fever Dream" is Cal EVER a game we can say "We've got this"? I've been to all the recent WSU v Cal games (home and away) and many have been nightmares for the the Cougs. We are 3-7 over the last ten games against them.

Maybe they are down this year? I have no idea. But I have no idea about us either. We have some talent. But the offense needs consistency, and we have to just plain find a defense, before we can start touting "we got this" for any games.

Just my opinion.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

In what "Fever Dream" is Cal EVER a game we can say "We've got this"? I've been to all the recent WSU v Cal games (home and away) and many have been nightmares for the the Cougs. We are 3-7 over the last ten games against them.

Maybe they are down this year? I have no idea. But I have no idea about us either. We have some talent. But the offense needs consistency, and we have to just plain find a defense, before we can start touting "we got this" for any games.

Just my opinion.

That's fair enough.

However, the difference between Cal and ASU is that in our road games against ASU, we've generally gotten stomped. In our games against Cal, we've usually played well enough that we walk away thinking, "How in the hell did we lose that game?" Those games probably felt like nightmares to you because many of them are games that we could have and maybe should have, won.

In 2019, inopportune turnovers hurt us but it was still a one score game early in the fourth quarter. 2015 went down to the wire. 2014 was an unholy disaster where our defense did it's best wet tissue paper impersonation in a 60-59 last minute loss. Our bizarre meltdown in 2017 is the only recent game where the game wasn't a legit toss-up game.

So...saying, "we got this" is an optimistic way to look at it.....but Cal is definitely a toss-up game.

 

[wazzucougs96]

We are going to go 0-5 in road games.

6-1 at home is the only hope of a bowl game. 5-2 feels like best case scenario.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

We are going to go 0-5 in road games.

6-1 at home is the only hope of a bowl game. 5-2 feels like best case scenario.

I'd give pretty good odds that we don't go 0-5 on the road. Oregon and UW will be deservedly favored. Utah is always tough, though they have as many unsettled issues this year as we do. ASU may very well be a dumpster fire, given the likelihood that they will have an all new coaching staff. And nobody can ever predict what Cal will do, not even the Cal fans. So who knows how that one will turn out, but with an improved D I like our chances. We should win somewhere between 5 and 7 games at home. We will probably be favored in 5 when the games take place. I think the most likely result is either 6 or 7 wins, just on the merits. If ASU is a dumpster fire, Utah or Cal don't resolve their own issues, or coach K was really the heart of the UW defense, then we will probably do better.

 

[Wasichus]

That's fair enough.

However, the difference between Cal and ASU is that in our road games against ASU, we've generally gotten stomped. In our games against Cal, we've usually played well enough that we walk away thinking, "How in the hell did we lose that game?" Those games probably felt like nightmares to you because many of them are games that we could have and maybe should have, won.

In 2019, inopportune turnovers hurt us but it was still a one score game early in the fourth quarter. 2015 went down to the wire. 2014 was an unholy disaster where our defense did it's best wet tissue paper impersonation in a 60-59 last minute loss. Our bizarre meltdown in 2017 is the only recent game where the game wasn't a legit toss-up game.

So...saying, "we got this" is an optimistic way to look at it.....but Cal is definitely a toss-up game.

And I think this is also a fair take. Not a "gimme" or "we got this one" game. But one that is winnable...if we play well enough.

 

[etowncoug]

Because we don't have a qb, at least that we know of. I don't see last season's JDL winning 7, so either he has to make a quantum leap or someone else emerges from the bench to lead us. Either of those could happen, but believing that it will is optimistic imho.

If we had a solid QB going into the season expectations would be to battle Oregon for the top spot in the north. We'd be a solid no. 2.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

If we had a solid QB going into the season expectations would be to battle Oregon for the top spot in the north. We'd be a solid no. 2.

E, if we had a solid QB I'd see us picked at a solid # 3, behind Oregon and UW. Until we start winning Apple Cups, we will not be favored to finish above UW in the PAC. That said, if we get good QB play this year and UW really needed Kwiatkowsky, then we we have a legitimate shot in the AC.

 

[425cougfan]

E, if we had a solid QB I'd see us picked at a solid # 3, behind Oregon and UW. Until we start winning Apple Cups, we will not be favored to finish above UW in the PAC. That said, if we get good QB play this year and UW really needed Kwiatkowsky, then we we have a legitimate shot in the AC.

UW definitely needed Kwiatkowski. Whether they needed him enough to beat us, or will this year, may be different questions.

 

[triscuit one]

E, if we had a solid QB I'd see us picked at a solid # 3, behind Oregon and UW. Until we start winning Apple Cups, we will not be favored to finish above UW in the PAC. That said, if we get good QB play this year and UW really needed Kwiatkowsky, then we we have a legitimate shot in the AC.

Agree. I think with solid QB play we might be #2 or 3 offensively in the north. Oregon is at the top. UW has probably the conference best OL including a great TE and several RB that are solid. If I had to guess there QB will be better, than our and there is some talent at WR. I think our offense has more dynamic play ability, but UW have better talent overall.

 

[etowncoug]

Agree. I think with solid QB play we might be #2 or 3 offensively in the north. Oregon is at the top. UW has probably the conference best OL including a great TE and several RB that are solid. If I had to guess there QB will be better, than our and there is some talent at WR. I think our offense has more dynamic play ability, but UW have better talent overall.

I don't see UW's line as better than ours. We have an experienced tackles and the other two returning starters proved they are solid last year. Beresford looks good. Fifita and Gomness provide critical depth. Unless we get hit by a ton of injuries, we'll be one of the best units in the conference. Our running backs are better. Same goes for our receivers. And while their QB might play better than ours next year (far from certain) there isn't a talent gap between the two schools.

 

[triscuit one]

Are you saying there isn't a talent gap overall or just on offense? I don't agree with good QB play we are better then UW and just below Oregon overall. I do believe, with decent QB play, we are right there and maybe above UW offensively (#2 or 3 offensively in the north). Listen I don't like giving props to the huskies, and I don't think they are the same team they were just 3-4 years ago, but neither are we. Do you think this offense is as good as the 2019 offense? And if not has our defense improved enough to not only fill the gap, but exceed what we have lost offensively?

I like Rolo and, unlike some, I think he has done a fine job with the roster given the mess of 2020, the player movement (whatever it called) and what he had to work with, mainly defensively. Just think its unfair to say, with the talent he inherited along with a solid returning starter we would be fighting Oregon for the top spot in the North.

 

[spongeandshoot]

I'm excited to see how we progress throughout the year

I think we can be a tough team to beat the second half of the season if we stay healthy.

We might have to stack the box against run heavy teams and depend on our secondary to not give up big plays while doing so this year

I'm also happy that Jimmy Lake won't be able to take the week off and drive around all day in his stupid purple car.

 

[mikalalas]

Because we don't have a qb, at least that we know of. I don't see last season's JDL winning 7, so either he has to make a quantum leap or someone else emerges from the bench to lead us. Either of those could happen, but believing that it will is optimistic imho.

Guarantano is a pretty damn good QB, or at least good enough to win with a NFL T Harris, NFL Borghi, NFL Quality O Line

Cooper did ok in Spring Ball. Almost as good as Guarantano at times, and juat barely by skin of teeth good enough with WR, Borghi, O Line to win 5,6,7 games.

Guarantano can win 6,7,8 wins.

So its a lie or should be a lie that WSU supposedly has no ok, good QB, that WSU can win with.

What your saying is BS.

 

[wazzucougs96]

E, if we had a solid QB I'd see us picked at a solid # 3, behind Oregon and UW. Until we start winning Apple Cups, we will not be favored to finish above UW in the PAC. That said, if we get good QB play this year and UW really needed Kwiatkowsky, then we we have a legitimate shot in the AC.

LMAO what? We have middle schoolers playing defense. Most of the league is going to hang 30+ on us every game.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

LMAO what? We have middle schoolers playing defense. Most of the league is going to hang 30+ on us every game.

Wow, '96. You must have gone to a really tough middle school!

 

[etowncoug]

Wow, '96. You must have gone to a really tough middle school!

You mean to tell me your middle school didn't have an NFL ready corner or a LB who could deadlift 700lbs?

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Guarantano is a pretty damn good QB, or at least good enough to win with a NFL T Harris, NFL Borghi, NFL Quality O Line

Cooper did ok in Spring Ball. Almost as good as Guarantano at times, and juat barely by skin of teeth good enough with WR, Borghi, O Line to win 5,6,7 games.

Guarantano can win 6,7,8 wins.

So its a lie or should be a lie that WSU supposedly has no ok, good QB, that WSU can win with.

What your saying is BS.

Just like Minshew, G'tano's numbers don't fly off the paper. He's an SEC qb, and their team curb stomped all the patsies and got destroyed by anyone decent. That being said, he might have a breakout year in a new system, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID, but up until this point he is unproven BECAUSE HE HASN'T FCKING PLAYED A REAL GAME YET, which is why my opinion ISN'T BS but has merit becasue THE FACT THAT HE'S UNPROVEN CANNOT BE ARGUED, ITS A FACT.

That being said, its nice to see so many looking through crimson colored glasses.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

You mean to tell me your middle school didn't have an NFL ready corner or a LB who could deadlift 700lbs?

He might have went here:

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Just like Minshew, G'tano's numbers don't fly off the paper. He's an SEC qb, and their team curb stomped all the patsies and got destroyed by anyone decent. That being said, he might have a breakout year in a new system, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT I SAID, but up until this point he is unproven BECAUSE HE HASN'T FCKING PLAYED A REAL GAME YET, which is why my opinion ISN'T BS but has merit becasue THE FACT THAT HE'S UNPROVEN CANNOT BE ARGUED, ITS A FACT.

That being said, its nice to see so many looking through crimson colored glasses.

Bleed, all those caps are hurting my ears. Go easy on us, please.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Bleed, all those caps are hurting my ears. Go easy on us, please.

I was speaking in Mik-ese. Sorry.

 

[Coug1990]

I was speaking in Mik-ese. Sorry.

I had to go back to see if it was Mik. Then, I saw it was you. Figured you were imitating him.

 

[COUGinNCW]

You mean to tell me your middle school didn't have an NFL ready corner or a LB who could deadlift 700lbs?

Which of our LBers dead lifts 700? I’m not following details as close as I have in past.

And speaking of lifting, I hope to see Nathaniel James use some of his strength to disrupt on the DL.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Which of our LBers dead lifts 700? I’m not following details as close as I have in past.

And speaking of lifting, I hope to see Nathaniel James use some of his strength to disrupt on the DL.

+1 on the James comment. That kid may not be quite as quick as Herc, but he is very quick for a kid who might realistically go past 280. "Disrupt" is exactly the right word. I really want to see more of what he can do.

 

[kougkurt]

Which of our LBers dead lifts 700? I’m not following details as close as I have in past.

And speaking of lifting, I hope to see Nathaniel James use some of his strength to disrupt on the DL.

Woods

 

[spongeandshoot]

I think Raonall Smith was widely regarded as a freak in the weight room. So he probably put up those types of numbers....but that was 20 years ago. Where did all that time go?

 

[couginphx]

I don't understand why so many are shocked to see Stanford at the bottom, they've been in steady decline for 3-4 years and David Shaw is the most overrated coach in the conference, classic win a bunch w/ the previous coach's recruits coach. In 2019 I had them 5th in the north pre-season and people were shocked and people were saying "but they are Stanford?!?!?" they went 3-6 in the P12 and 4-8 and finished 6th. I think they are back to being a middle of the road team at best as long as Shaw is in charge.

 

[Coug90]

Agree. I think with solid QB play we might be #2 or 3 offensively in the north. Oregon is at the top. UW has probably the conference best OL including a great TE and several RB that are solid. If I had to guess there QB will be better, than our and there is some talent at WR. I think our offense has more dynamic play ability, but UW have better talent overall.

There’s plenty of reason for optimism. If the offense is #2 or #3 in the North there’s a good chance the Cougs will be in the hunt for the North because the defense is going to be salty IMO.

 

[triscuit one]

I think the defense has potential to be very good but need a couple of surprises on the DT and S position. That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if the DT ended up being a position of strength.

If we are in the hunt for the North in November that would mean Rolo and staff did a great job coaching this team IMO which I think they are capable of doing.