Fair chance
- Thread starter 7ICoug
- Start date
I think there is about a 75% chance that 1 of the 2 of either Efe, Mo, comes back to WSU. I don't think both would comeback to WSU.
If they do both comeback to WSU, that would be a good surprise.
MO, altho withrew from draft, and altho MO isn't going G League, MO has decided to remain, go back to portal.
This probably means there is probably only about a 15 to 23% chance that MO come back to WSU.
I thought there was a 75% chance 1 of the 2 come back to WSU, but that was before Efe deciding to go G league, and MO returning to portal.
If MO was coming back, he probably would have returned to WSU by now, and would have returned to WSU, instead of returning to the Portal after withdrawing from draft, not going G league, and I agree that the longer it takes MO to decide, the less likely he returns.
WSU needed 1 of either Efe, MO, Tyrell, to return, in order to not have too much to replace, and be able to make either a deep CBI run, or make NIT, NCAA.
Now WSU will be lucky to make CIT, CBI, or have any postseason at all, an or win, 12,13,14,15 games, etc, unless either MO returns, an or IF Smith gets good enough replacements for all that lost.
While getting Diongue was awesome, getting Diongue, Jabe Mullins, Dylan, probably is, won't be enough good enough replacements, as WSU needs 1 more Diongue, Solomon Ominu level either HS or Transfer big, and 1 more Flowers, Tyrell, etc, level transfer guard.
If WSU had to make do with Diongue, Jackson, Jaki, then it would be a must for WSU to have a backcourt of PG Rice, SG Bamba, with Rodman at the 3 spot.
While that is a good enough starting 5, with a 6th man, that is not enough depth, and not enough to have competition for starting spots, pushing the starters.
Jaki, Jabe are good 6th man, 7th man candidates, but Dylan probably won't be ready to play, and Rosario is a HUGE UNKNOWN, and therefore can't be counted on to be ready, so because of that, WSU needs 1 more replacement either HS, or transfer, that a versatile either combo SG/PG, or a wing that can play the 3,2,4 spots, that can either challenge Rodman for a starting spot, or at least provide depth as a 6,7,8th man.
If WSU/Smith does that, then that would be a good enough at minimum to make, get to either deep, CBI championship run, NIT, just barely bubble into NCAA, have a ok, decent post season finish about 4th,5th,6th,7th in conference, win about 15,16,17,18,19 games in reg season, win 1 game in Pac 12 tourny.
If WSU/Smith does not get 1 more good enough replacement, then no postseason, CIT, just barely bubble into CBI/NIT at best, and 12,13,14,15,16 wins, no Pac 12 tourny wins, 8,9,10,11 in conference.
If MO does come back and WSU gets 1 more good enough replacement at either guard/Wing, then WSU probably would go 18,19,20,21 wins in regular season. 3,4,5,6 in conference, 1,2 Pac 12 tourny wins, NIT top 8, NCAA tournament 2nd round exit.
But don't think MO is coming back, and if MO comes back, then good surprise.
And it's 50/50/dicey whether Smith will get 1 more good enough replacement, as haven't heard of anything.
As such I think there is at least a 53% chance that WSU does not get 1 more good enough replacement and thus wins 12,13,14,15,16 games, 8,9,10,11 in conference, no Pac 12 tourny wins, CIT/CBI at best, but probably no post season, which would be a huge FALL.
Oh well it's is what it probably is.
This probably means there is probably only about a 15 to 23% chance that MO come back to WSU.
I thought there was a 75% chance 1 of the 2 come back to WSU, but that was before Efe deciding to go G league, and MO returning to portal.
If MO was coming back, he probably would have returned to WSU by now, and would have returned to WSU, instead of returning to the Portal after withdrawing from draft, not going G league, and I agree that the longer it takes MO to decide, the less likely he returns.
WSU needed 1 of either Efe, MO, Tyrell, to return, in order to not have too much to replace, and be able to make either a deep CBI run, or make NIT, NCAA.
Now WSU will be lucky to make CIT, CBI, or have any postseason at all, an or win, 12,13,14,15 games, etc, unless either MO returns, an or IF Smith gets good enough replacements for all that lost.
While getting Diongue was awesome, getting Diongue, Jabe Mullins, Dylan, probably is, won't be enough good enough replacements, as WSU needs 1 more Diongue, Solomon Ominu level either HS or Transfer big, and 1 more Flowers, Tyrell, etc, level transfer guard.
If WSU had to make do with Diongue, Jackson, Jaki, then it would be a must for WSU to have a backcourt of PG Rice, SG Bamba, with Rodman at the 3 spot.
While that is a good enough starting 5, with a 6th man, that is not enough depth, and not enough to have competition for starting spots, pushing the starters.
Jaki, Jabe are good 6th man, 7th man candidates, but Dylan probably won't be ready to play, and Rosario is a HUGE UNKNOWN, and therefore can't be counted on to be ready, so because of that, WSU needs 1 more replacement either HS, or transfer, that a versatile either combo SG/PG, or a wing that can play the 3,2,4 spots, that can either challenge Rodman for a starting spot, or at least provide depth as a 6,7,8th man.
If WSU/Smith does that, then that would be a good enough at minimum to make, get to either deep, CBI championship run, NIT, just barely bubble into NCAA, have a ok, decent post season finish about 4th,5th,6th,7th in conference, win about 15,16,17,18,19 games in reg season, win 1 game in Pac 12 tourny.
If WSU/Smith does not get 1 more good enough replacement, then no postseason, CIT, just barely bubble into CBI/NIT at best, and 12,13,14,15,16 wins, no Pac 12 tourny wins, 8,9,10,11 in conference.
If MO does come back and WSU gets 1 more good enough replacement at either guard/Wing, then WSU probably would go 18,19,20,21 wins in regular season. 3,4,5,6 in conference, 1,2 Pac 12 tourny wins, NIT top 8, NCAA tournament 2nd round exit.
But don't think MO is coming back, and if MO comes back, then good surprise.
And it's 50/50/dicey whether Smith will get 1 more good enough replacement, as haven't heard of anything.
As such I think there is at least a 53% chance that WSU does not get 1 more good enough replacement and thus wins 12,13,14,15,16 games, 8,9,10,11 in conference, no Pac 12 tourny wins, CIT/CBI at best, but probably no post season, which would be a huge FALL.
Oh well it's is what it probably is.
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