Finally, some positive news

[Cougsocal]

This is not going to be widely published due to the "yellow press " on steroids nature of modern journalism and "the sky is falling" narrative. But, Sweden is reporting a dramatic decline in new COVID 19 cases, and they have had very few deaths over the last couple weeks. As the only Western country not to impose extraordinary social isolation measures, this strongly suggests that COVID 19 is subject to herd immunity after all (despite the fear mongering to the contrary). Also because of the relatively quick and sudden decline of the infection, it also strongly suggests that COVID 19 is insanely infectious, that the vast majority of people are asymptomatic, and that the mortality rate is quite low' after all. Sweden is a country of approximately 10 million people that has experienced approximately 5600 deaths, you can do the calculations, assuming a 60 to 65% exposure rate to establish herd immunity, generally.

It probably is not going to save fall sports because we are way behind in the herd immunity race, and we are experiencing an uptick, but there maybe a light at the end of the tunnel for a back to normal in 2021 scenario.

Thought you might like to know.

 

[chugspig]

Not grim enough for me

 

[NMBRCRNCHR]

Thanks for sharing this. It is quite ridiculous that I find out about this type of stuff on a Cougar sports board and not the "news" sites/channels...Do a google search for Sweden and Covid and all you see is that their tact resulted in "too many deaths" and it can't be replicated in the U.S.

 

[CecilYounger]

Thanks for sharing this. It is quite ridiculous that I find out about this type of stuff on a Cougar sports board and not the "news" sites/channels...Do a google search for Sweden and Covid and all you see is that their tact resulted in "too many deaths" and it can't be replicated in the U.S.

A quick google search found plenty of stories in the mainstream press. Forbes was a lot more in line with the take of the original post then other outlets.

 

[AncientCoug]

A quick google search found plenty of stories in the mainstream press. Forbes was a lot more in line with the take of the original post then other outlets.

Yeah, I had no trouble finding articles addressing the apparent drop in Swedish cases. I’ll try to attach a link to a US News article that discusses it. Swedish authorities don’t seem to think the drop in cases is as dramatic as it might appear so wouldn’t be indicative of herd immunity. They had a spike in reported cases during June due to making testing available to the non symptomatic.That caused a surge in daily tests due to pent up demand and a surge in reported cases. Now they are back to about the same average daily case and death rate they had in late May. That being said, they do seem to be doing reasonably well at least compared to us. Maybe they have a more disciplined and cooperative society when it comes to social distancing and masks.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...-new-covid-19-cases-falls-to-lowest-since-may

 

[doggiedoo]

Yeah, I had no trouble finding articles addressing the apparent drop in Swedish cases. I’ll try to attach a link to a US News article that discusses it. Swedish authorities don’t seem to think the drop in cases is as dramatic as it might appear so wouldn’t be indicative of herd immunity. They had a spike in reported cases during June due to making testing available to the non symptomatic.That caused a surge in daily tests due to pent up demand and a surge in reported cases. Now they are back to about the same average daily case and death rate they had in late May. That being said, they do seem to be doing reasonably well at least compared to us. Maybe they have a more disciplined and cooperative society when it comes to social distancing and masks.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...-new-covid-19-cases-falls-to-lowest-since-may

Per capita Sweden has 12x the covid deaths of Norway, 7x Finland, 6x Denmark and 40% higher than the US.
As the world economy has impacted their economy they have no economic benefit to show over their neighbors for the cost they have paid in human lives.

As for the OP touting herd immunity, recent studies have found about 6% of the population of Sweden has antibodies and about 14% in Stockholm have antibodies. That’s a far cry from the 70% to 80% needed for herd immunity.

 

[chugspig]

Per capita Sweden has 12x the covid deaths of Norway, 7x Finland, 6x Denmark and 40% higher than the US.
As the world economy has impacted their economy they have no economic benefit to show over their neighbors for the cost they have paid in human lives.

As for the OP touting herd immunity, recent studies have found about 6% of the population of Sweden has antibodies and about 14% in Stockholm have antibodies. That’s a far cry from the 70% to 80% needed for herd immunity.

That is more along the lines of what I’ve read. However, there is also evidence that antibodies to Covid don’t last an extremely long time, especially if you’re not overly reactive to the infection in the first place. It appears that in some way having been infected with other Coronaviruses can provide cross protection in the same way a related strain of flu vaccine can cause partial protection and reduce symptoms from full blown flu to a day or two cold. Like everything else it’s all still truly unknown, but that’s been discussed at different point.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Thanks for sharing this. It is quite ridiculous that I find out about this type of stuff on a Cougar sports board and not the "news" sites/channels...Do a google search for Sweden and Covid and all you see is that their tact resulted in "too many deaths" and it can't be replicated in the U.S.

The last article I saw on Sweden was literally "How the Swedish Herd immunity experiment is a complete failure" or something to that effect. Despite the headline, its didn't specifically prove that a) what Sweden was doing wasn't working or b) that what Sweden was doing was making things worse, but only that their infection rate from current testing was not high enough to have effective herd immunity, eg they didn't reach the 60% mark. But of course, 90% of everyone only reads a headline and runs with that as the information, so I'm sure there are many who believe that Sweden's protocol for coronavirus as an abject failure.

 

[spongeworthy12]

Not grim enough for me

Haha yes!

More Grim Please.

 

[BSpike76]

This is not going to be widely published due to the "yellow press " on steroids nature of modern journalism and "the sky is falling" narrative. But, Sweden is reporting a dramatic decline in new COVID 19 cases, and they have had very few deaths over the last couple weeks. As the only Western country not to impose extraordinary social isolation measures, this strongly suggests that COVID 19 is subject to herd immunity after all (despite the fear mongering to the contrary). Also because of the relatively quick and sudden decline of the infection, it also strongly suggests that COVID 19 is insanely infectious, that the vast majority of people are asymptomatic, and that the mortality rate is quite low' after all. Sweden is a country of approximately 10 million people that has experienced approximately 5600 deaths, you can do the calculations, assuming a 60 to 65% exposure rate to establish herd immunity, generally.

It probably is not going to save fall sports because we are way behind in the herd immunity race, and we are experiencing an uptick, but there maybe a light at the end of the tunnel for a back to normal in 2021 scenario.

Thought you might like to know.

I heard they reduced testing and it worked!

 

[doggiedoo]

That is more along the lines of what I’ve read. However, there is also evidence that antibodies to Covid don’t last an extremely long time, especially if you’re not overly reactive to the infection in the first place. It appears that in some way having been infected with other Coronaviruses can provide cross protection in the same way a related strain of flu vaccine can cause partial protection and reduce symptoms from full blown flu to a day or two cold. Like everything else it’s all still truly unknown, but that’s been discussed at different point.

For people that tested positive for covid but later had undetectable antibody levels some researchers have said they believe this doesn’t mean they don’t have some immunity... but they can’t really say for certain at this point - they’re really just guessing - unless there’s newer info that I missed. Hopefully they’re right.

I’ve seen but am not yet buying the coronavirus cross protection argument - basically you have MERS and SARS (which no one of course is getting exposed to ) then you have a small handful of corona viruses that cause common cold symptoms. What’s the evidence? I believe this is just speculation at this point.
There is so much yet to learn about this virus.

 

[doggiedoo]

Doggiedoo, you might assume, perhaps even hope, that Sweden obtained "no economic benefit" from its policies, but can you provide any objective backing for that assertion?

Why would I hope that?

Sweden’s central bank expects economy to contract 4.5% this year. Their unemployment is at 9%
Denmark? 4.1% economy contraction and presently at 5.6% unemployment.

Besides 6x per capita deaths over Denmark what exactly did Sweden gain?

 

[chugspig]

For people that tested positive for covid but later had undetectable antibody levels some researchers have said they believe this doesn’t mean they don’t have some immunity... but they can’t really say for certain at this point - they’re really just guessing - unless there’s newer info that I missed. Hopefully they’re right.

I’ve seen but am not yet buying the coronavirus cross protection argument - basically you have MERS and SARS (which no one of course is getting exposed to ) then you have a small handful of corona viruses that cause common cold symptoms. What’s the evidence? I believe this is just speculation at this point.
There is so much yet to learn about this virus.

From what I have read, and again I don’t know how accurate any of this is, but antibodies are being found heavily in mucus of asymptomatic people but quite often not in blood. Whether that means they were ever present I don’t know. But if you factor that they think 50-80% of cases don’t even prevent symptoms strong even to make someone think they have a common cold... how many could have had it and also won’t test pos for iGG or IgM on sero surveys. As you said, so much to learn.

 

[COCoug]

Whether or not the "Swedish experiment" worked is irrelevant to the US. While restrictions were not imposed by the government, the Swedish people generally followed government recommendations because that is their culture and society. There are many examples of things that work great in Sweden that would never work here.

 

[chugspig]

Whether or not the "Swedish experiment" worked is irrelevant to the US. While restrictions were not imposed by the government, the Swedish people generally followed government recommendations because that is their culture and society. There are many examples of things that work great in Sweden that would never work here.

Like science not being political

 

[doggiedoo]

The same reasons the guy from the "nonpartisan" think tank who, in essence, authored the piece in the New York Times that you likely are referring to has.

If Sweden can achieve herd immunity and accelerate more quickly out of this, they'll be ahead of the game if there's no vaccine or it takes a long time to show up. We may not know which approach was best for some time to come. There are uncertainties regarding both herd immunity and the timing, distribution, and effectiveness of a vaccine, of course.

Sweden is nowhere near herd immunity. It’s astounding how much the term “herd immunity” gets bandied about like it’s something that’s inevitably just going to happen. It’s the same sort of magical thinking as this jaw dropper from February: “You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero.”
More astounding is the politicization of a pandemic fueled by paranoia of MSM.

 

[doggiedoo]

Whether or not the "Swedish experiment" worked is irrelevant to the US. While restrictions were not imposed by the government, the Swedish people generally followed government recommendations because that is their culture and society. There are many examples of things that work great in Sweden that would never work here.

But did they really follow government recommendations? I’m sure Swedes are no different than people in the US. Some are capable of maintaining discipline and following directions and same cannot and some are just selfish and don’t care. Swedes have become the unicorns du jour.

 

[AncientCoug]

But did they really follow government recommendations? I’m sure Swedes are no different than people in the US. Some are capable of maintaining discipline and following directions and same cannot and some are just selfish and don’t care. Swedes have become the unicorns du jour.

You’re probably right that Swedish compliance with health guidelines is not universal. They no doubt have rebels and scofflaws just like anyone else. I do recall reading some articles saying that Sweden had threatened to close bars and restaurants that failed to comply with guidelines. They followed through and did close a handful to set an example. So, they were never quite as laissez-faire about the COVID thing as some might have been led to believe.

 

[Ffffws]

Thanks for sharing this. It is quite ridiculous that I find out about this type of stuff on a Cougar sports board and not the "news" sites/channels...Do a google search for Sweden and Covid and all you see is that their tact resulted in "too many deaths" and it can't be replicated in the U.S.

Put this on your rotation.... Stanford’s Hoover Institute. yeoman’s work.
https://www.hoover.org/publications/hoover-institution-covid-19

 

[COCoug]

There has been a lot written about Sweden's approach, and how different Swedish society is from the US. Here are a couple of quotes:

Even though the government has only issued behavioral guidelines and individuals don’t face fines for noncompliance, 93 percent of the population say they are following social distancing recommendations. The ruling concept relies on a bedrock of trust between the government and its people, an expectation of willing obedience and a mindset of safety first, coupled with a desire to keep people healthy, both physically, and mentally.

Sweden is a country of willfully compliant citizens, home of a so-called "consensus culture." It's a place that's birthed some of the world's safest cars, and most inoffensive furniture. Nearly everyone pays their taxes without prodding, despite the record high rates. "People trust the government," American archaeologist and Scandinavian art history professor Nancy Wicker, who's traveled frequently back and forth between Sweden and the US for nearly four decades, told Business Insider. "It's definitely part of the culture to follow the rules, or guidelines, and to not be too pushy about it."

It is also a sparsely populated country, like the states that have done better in the US. However, there is very little evidence to prove at this point their approach worked, and as others has said, their death rate is much higher then neighboring countries.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/07/03/what-sweden-can-teach-us-about-coronavirus-348462

 

[Observer11]

Swedes? Compliant???


Swedes are the most stubborn breed on the planet. Nobody tells Swedes what to do.

 

[FnuLnu]

Swedes? Compliant???


Swedes are the most stubborn breed on the planet. Nobody tells Swedes what to do.

Swedes had their porno actresses talk about Marx in order to provide "social redeeming content" in order to pass US obscenity laws in early 70s.

US Supreme Court (clerks and some judges like Thurgood Marshall) had to screen pormo movies to make sure all the boxes were filled in.

 

[couginphx]

Maybe I'm weird, but I'm even more impressed by what New Zealand did. One theme I see, smaller more dispersed populations seem to be doing better--which supports the argument for social distancing.

https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-zealand-went-hard-early-234113141.html

 

[CecilYounger]

Swedes? Compliant???


Swedes are the most stubborn breed on the planet. Nobody tells Swedes what to do.

Guilty as charged, but I believe you are referring to Americans of Swedish decent.