If we win our next 4 games
- Thread starter TrumpCoug
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No, 19-12, 12-8 in conference, Tied for 4th in conference, alone in 5th in Conference = about a 50/50:chance of going to big dance.
At 19-12, 12-8, and a very high Ken Pom, NET ranking in the likely 19 to 39 range, 50/50:gets them in.
Win just 1 Pac 12 tourney game(NOT 3,4, whole tourny, tourny champions), and they 20-12, 13-8, 4th or 5th in conference, and 85 to 93% chance to dance.
To put things in perspective, Sampson's NCAA team was 9-9, compared to 12-8/(13-8).
If WSU did that, went and 20-12, 13-8, and still didn't go dancing, it would be a EPIC SNUB, based on their losses to EWU, etc.
BUT all this is probably a moot point, as WSU is probably not going to win their last 4 in row.
I would think we MIGHT get consideration if we win out and get another quad 1 win in the PAC tournament. My guess is we still need to win 3 more games, however they come, to get to NIT. But that pure speculation.
Honestly, I don't want to see this team in the dance. Getting bounced by a one seed not only sounds horrible to watch, but they would be much better served by playing an extra 2+ games in the NIT or even CBI.
Sometimes orange slices and juice boxes are just what the doctor ordered.
Sometimes orange slices and juice boxes are just what the doctor ordered.
I absolutely want to see this team in the dance.....although the odds against that happening are overwhelming. Making the NCAAt would mean the Cougars finished the regular season and the Pac-12 tournament on a good note. The school (& conference) also makes money from the NCAAt appearance, probably not so in the NIT, and definitely loses money in the CBI. Anytime a program can say it made the Big Dance, it carries a lot more weight with recruits than extra games in a lower tournament.....even if it's one and done.
Glad Cougar
I suppose you are right.
I'm operating under the false pretense that this team is learning and growing, but its been 2 years of the same ol sh!t with little to no player development. The good kids are good, the bad players are bad, and thats how it stays. Oh, and sometimes the good players are bad as well.
If they made the dance it would be as a 12 or 13 seed at worse. There are a lot of 5 and 6 teams that wouldn’t want to play a healthy WSU.
A very strong finish would be great but in order to go to the Big Dance we would need to follow that up with an impressive run in the PAC 12 tourney. Finish with four more wins and get two in PAC 12 tourney and I would say we would be in, but I don’t feel this team is capable of that kind of run. This year we are simply a middle tier conference team that can’t beat the upper tier teams in the conference. That usually translates into NIT and hope/excitement for next year.
If WSU did go 20-12, 13-8 in conference, 1 Pac 12 tourney win, 4th, 5th, in conference, they would be a 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th seed, in the big dance, not a 16th seed vs #1 Duke.
Again the Sampson 9-9 in conference, 20 win NCAA team, that had a way lesser conference record then 13-8, was #9 seed vs #8 seed.
15,16 seeds that play #1,#2,#3 duke types, are usually reserved for directional sisters of the poor university types.
Maybe we could be one of the inevitable 12-5 upsets in the tourney. I don't think this is probable but it would be fun. At this time last year who thought Oregon St could make that kind of run.
As mentioned above, we have to win our conference tournament to get into the dance. IF....and it's a huge IF, we could do that, we would most likely be the #6 seed and need to beat #11 Utah, #3 USC, #2 UCLA and #1 Arizona to win the conference tournament. At that point, we would be 22-13 and on a seven game winning streak and an 8-2 record in our last 10 games. Our NET rating would like jump into the low to mid 40's if we could pull off that kind of run. That would make us an 11 or 12 seed depending on where we fell. Unfortunately, it ain't going to happen.
Most likely, we'll gack against Oregon and finish 17-14 (10-10), beat Utah and lose to USC and finish at 18-15. That's not a particularly sexy record and most years, I think it would mean that we wouldn't even get picked for the NIT. Given our lack of basketball tradition...we still might not get in, even with a good NET rating and Kenpom rating. Personally, I'll be grateful if we can get into the NIT and make a nice run.
Don't forget, the other WSU started their run of excellence with an NIT championship in 2011. They ended up in the next seven NCAA tournaments after that before the wheels fall off after joining the AAC and Gregg Marshall making an a$$ of himself. I'm hoping that Smith can do something like that here before he leaves.
EDIT: Except for the being an a-hole part.
Most likely, we'll gack against Oregon and finish 17-14 (10-10), beat Utah and lose to USC and finish at 18-15. That's not a particularly sexy record and most years, I think it would mean that we wouldn't even get picked for the NIT. Given our lack of basketball tradition...we still might not get in, even with a good NET rating and Kenpom rating. Personally, I'll be grateful if we can get into the NIT and make a nice run.
Don't forget, the other WSU started their run of excellence with an NIT championship in 2011. They ended up in the next seven NCAA tournaments after that before the wheels fall off after joining the AAC and Gregg Marshall making an a$$ of himself. I'm hoping that Smith can do something like that here before he leaves.
EDIT: Except for the being an a-hole part.
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I think your right. Hopefully we beat OSU at home, but the Ducks will be difficult. I think we win at Utah and i honestly like our chances v. USC. Two buzzer beater games and IF we are healthy I think we have a decent chance. Would need at least a win against the ducks or USC to get into NIT imo.
My gut is telling me we really need to get into the NIT. I think playing in that tournament would leave the team hungry for the NCAA next year. If we are sitting at home I could see a couple of key player bolt after the season ends.
My gut is telling me we really need to get into the NIT. I think playing in that tournament would leave the team hungry for the NCAA next year. If we are sitting at home I could see a couple of key player bolt after the season ends.
If WSU had won it's last 5, gotten to 19-12, 1,2 Pac tourney wins, that would have been enough to go dancing.
That didn't happen. If WSU beats Ore St, Ore, gets to 18-13, win at least 3 Pac 12 tourney wins(4 wins is tournament champions), then with 21 wins, 14-10 in conference, high Ken Pom, NET rankings, tied for 5th, etc, WSU would go dancing.
Probably not gonna happen.
WSU is 50/50 on going 18-13, 11-9 in conference, tied for 6th in conference, by winning last 2 games of seasons vs Ore St and Ore.
If that happens WSU gets easily bubbles into NIT, and if for some strange reason it wouldn't, 1 Pac 12 tourney win easily would guarantee a NIT berth.
If WSU goes 17-14 is where gets murky. Only way WSU would go dancing is if they Pac 12 tourney champions(not bloody likely)
It would also be murky NIT wise. 17-14 would be 50/50 bubble into, out of NIT.
If WSU goes 18-15 by winning 1 Pac 12 tourney win, WSU would likely bubble into NIT. 2 Pac 12 tourny wins to go 19-15, would guarantee a NIT berth.
Even tho WSU is semi unlikely to make a run, if WSU does beat Ore St and Ore, and wins 1 Pac 12 tourney game to go to 19-14, or 2 Pac 12 tourney wins to go to 20-14, WSU could semi easily win the whole NIT, as WSU, is FINALLY getting semi consistent, INSIDE play by bigs, and drives by guards, instead of settling for outside shots, and rebounding, defending well, and hitting free throws, taking care of ball, etc, playing semi well, etc.
If that continues, and continue to jell, chemistry, and if get out of shooting slumps, etc, watch out, WSU could end up being very dangerous.
That didn't happen. If WSU beats Ore St, Ore, gets to 18-13, win at least 3 Pac 12 tourney wins(4 wins is tournament champions), then with 21 wins, 14-10 in conference, high Ken Pom, NET rankings, tied for 5th, etc, WSU would go dancing.
Probably not gonna happen.
WSU is 50/50 on going 18-13, 11-9 in conference, tied for 6th in conference, by winning last 2 games of seasons vs Ore St and Ore.
If that happens WSU gets easily bubbles into NIT, and if for some strange reason it wouldn't, 1 Pac 12 tourney win easily would guarantee a NIT berth.
If WSU goes 17-14 is where gets murky. Only way WSU would go dancing is if they Pac 12 tourney champions(not bloody likely)
It would also be murky NIT wise. 17-14 would be 50/50 bubble into, out of NIT.
If WSU goes 18-15 by winning 1 Pac 12 tourney win, WSU would likely bubble into NIT. 2 Pac 12 tourny wins to go 19-15, would guarantee a NIT berth.
Even tho WSU is semi unlikely to make a run, if WSU does beat Ore St and Ore, and wins 1 Pac 12 tourney game to go to 19-14, or 2 Pac 12 tourney wins to go to 20-14, WSU could semi easily win the whole NIT, as WSU, is FINALLY getting semi consistent, INSIDE play by bigs, and drives by guards, instead of settling for outside shots, and rebounding, defending well, and hitting free throws, taking care of ball, etc, playing semi well, etc.
If that continues, and continue to jell, chemistry, and if get out of shooting slumps, etc, watch out, WSU could end up being very dangerous.
As to why WSU did not meet it's on paper potential:
The TV announcers pointed out Dischon Jackson's eye surgery.
Dischon and the other big got injured, out, limited for medical reasons, and that limited their growth, development, jelling, chemistry.
Also they were YOUNG, which didn't help either. And the other team's, because of how well Jackson and Efe, did last year really did a better job defending them this year, than last year.
Then the guards didn't help the bigs either.
This made defending WSU a lot easier. All defenders had to do was play Tony Bennet like, Pack it in defense. And give WSU 3 pointers. If WSU misses, the guards can't drive, and the bigs had no inside game, and even if they had, the guards wouldn't get them the ball. This made it so that WSU couldn't score inside, and could only live or die by on 3 pointers.
And elite defenses were even harder on WSU, as they could take away the 3 pointer, force guards to drive, dish, which WSU wasn't doing a good job of, and rely on shot blockers to block, alter, change trajectory of shots, and caused missed inside shots.
So that caused a inept WSU offense that lost games.
Some might say that if WSU had only rebounded better, not turned over ball, played better defense, made more free throws, not made boneheaded mistakes, at key times, they would have won more.
And while that's technically true, can't expect, have PERFECT play to win despite a ailing offense.
Yes if WSU had played PERFECTLY, they could, would have won despite shooting about 17%, etc.
But WSU has one of the best, top defenses in the Pac 12.
And while the BUCK ultimately stops at Kyle Smith, what some might not know, that WSU radio broadcasters seem to know thru connections, sources in the program, interviews, etc, is that Kyle Smith BANGED his head against brick walls in frustration, as Kyle Smith would tell Bigs to take more inside shots, and not pass it back out as much back to the guards, except for open 3 pointers by good shooters. Kyle told Rodman to shoot it more and not pass up wide open 3 point shots. Kyle told the guards to pass it into bigs in the post, etc.
And Kyle, didn't just tell them, he drilled it into them during practice drills, etc.
The players either forgot, or didn't listen, learn, etc.
Now some would say the way to solve that is the BENCH.
And Kyle did use the Bench to deal with those issues, during the noncon, which is maybe why WSU semi struggled at times during noncon.
But Kyle couldn't do it more, because the players were too talented to not start, get playing time, etc, and needed time to learn, grow, develop, jell, chemistry, etc.
So because of injuries, cancelations, having to play 3 top tier teams, games in 5 days(Totally BS schedule, Not fair, etc), because of players not doing what told, because of not growing, developing, learning, jelling, chemistry, etc, because all that didn't happen faster, as fast as it should have, because of pyschological shooting slumps, because of a ailing offense, etc, that's why players, WSU, etc, did meet upside, potential, etc.
Yes, if WSU had played harder in 1,2,3 games, WSU might have won 1,2,3 more games, but the lion share of the losses were lost for the reasons I named, instead of supposedly not playing hard enough, or Kyle supposedly not coaching well enough.
WSU did play hard enough. And Kyle did coach well enough, as the players didn't always follow his coaching, and some to a lot of what happened was beyond his control.
And the offense was why WSU lost so many games. Hard to win when shoot about 17% to 27% from either field, an or 3 point range.
It's just too bad it took all season to overcome these things, as if the players, team, WSU had overcome these things sooner, coulda, woulda, shoulda, been a way better, very special season.
And despite the problems, WSU is set to make a very deep NIT run.
And WSU only loses 1 senior off bench and 1 starter in Flowers.
Next year should be a extremely special year. Next year's team could easily win 22,23,24,25,26 games, because of chemistry, jelling, growth and development, talent and athleticism, and EXPERIENCE, team being mostly Juniors, seniors, with some Sophmores, and very few freshman.
Kyle WSU should be fine with Tyrell Roberts, Noah, Bamba or Rodman as the starters at the 1,2,3 spots. And Hopefully Koulibaly can be a good back up to Tyrell Roberts and Noah, at the 1,2 spots. And maybe Rapp will be good as a Junior,good enough to work into the guard rotation as a back up.
And if not, Kyle can always bring in 1 more grad transfer or transfer guard.
Gueye is going to be SPECIAL his Sophmore year. And Efe, Dischon Jackson barring injury, will be good as well and Jaki can rotate between 4,3,5 spots as a key back up, 6th, 7th, 8th man, situational starter.
Efe, and Dischon, and Jaki are juniors next year, and Gueye, a super soph.
And WSU has that 6-10 Nigerian that is probably coming as a freshman.
Rodman is a Senior, and Bamba a Junior at 3 spot.
Noah a senior, and Koulibaly a Junior at 2 spot.
And Tyrell Roberts a Senior, and Koulibaly a Junior.
And Rapp a Junior.
Next year WSU will be the most experienced, most talented, most athletic, most deepest, etc, in WSU history, and should easily get 22,23,24,25,26 wins, 2nd in conference, Sweet 16, Elite 8, etc.
But that's the future.
First the exciting end of this season comes first, with a likely very deep NIT run.
This pretty much sums it up. We win all but one of the rest, then win at least 2 in the tourney, and we would be close to the bubble. If we win out the regular season and win 2 in the tourney, then I think we probably sneak in. As you note, the team has not yet shown that they are capable of that kind of run; it would require a full game of concentration. We struggle to have more than 75-80% of a complete game.
Now, I've also got to agree with those who have suggested that IF we could put together a full game, we could beat anybody in our league. I'll even agree that we might do that a couple of times between now and the end of the season. But to do it for the full run? That seems unlikely. Not impossible. But from what we've seen so far, I have to go with unlikely.
Had to admire the grit at the end last night, though. We didn't have that early-mid season, and it cost us several games. Good to see!
1. They don't have a top defense.
2. He didnt coach well enough - see all the 2nd half collapses.
3. Their portal guards they grabbed from mid-majors and D2 can't distribute, are too short, and frankly not talented enough to get this WSU team into the NCAA tourney. Not terrible, just not good enough.
Not every portal player is a Minshew.
1. Yes they do. In Kenpom, they are 37th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
2. That is a very simplistic analysis.
3. The team as itself is not good enough.
Still, they were picked pre-season to finish 8th, and they are currently in 6th. With one victory in the last two conference games, they will have their best conference record since Tony Bennett was coaching in 2007-2008.
Actually only the Pac 12 media picked them 8th, and only because of Pac 12 media, historical bias because of WSU bball history.
Ken Pom, NET, RPI, AP, Phil Steel, Athlon, 247, ESPN, types,etc, ranked WSU as 4,5,6 in conference, and bubble NCAA/NIT
The TV, and Radio announcers disagree with you, said that WSU overall defense and or scoring defense, is the 2nd,3rd defense in Pac 12, and about Top 33 in Nation.
And they cited all sorts of stats that prove their point.
Now despite that awesome defense overall there has been key, semi small, semi limited semi stretches, patches in CRUNCH time, etc, where the defense has been bad.
BUT 85% of the time WSU defense has been great.
And just because WSU gave up 1 bad half, etc, vs Ore St, EWU, etc, after they STUFFED ASU, USC, ETC, doesn't mean their defense is bad.
Sometimes even the best defenses have bad days, bad minutes.
You see ONLY the bad, you never seem to see the good.
Everybody else has offered an opinion, so here is one more.
Our D overall has been good. The statistics make that clear. Can't argue the numbers.
Our D has also been inconsistent, if you view a multi-minute series of breakdowns (back door lay-ins, open 12' shots, open looks from the perimeter) as constituting inconsistency.
We are at the top of the nation in close losses this year. And most of those would have gone the other way without these stretches of mental disconnects on D, which are often aided and abetted by a stupid turnover or two by our offense.
Our team has made huge strides. The last hurdles as I see them are twofold:
- We have a lot of guys who badly needed polish. They are getting it, but still need some more. Bamba and Efe probably top that list, but many of our guys need that last little bit of skills development.
- We have got to stop with the series of mental disconnects. That is a maturity thing. We are better than we were, but this single thing has cost us several games this year. To take the next step, we need to overcome it.
Our D overall has been good. The statistics make that clear. Can't argue the numbers.
Our D has also been inconsistent, if you view a multi-minute series of breakdowns (back door lay-ins, open 12' shots, open looks from the perimeter) as constituting inconsistency.
We are at the top of the nation in close losses this year. And most of those would have gone the other way without these stretches of mental disconnects on D, which are often aided and abetted by a stupid turnover or two by our offense.
Our team has made huge strides. The last hurdles as I see them are twofold:
- We have a lot of guys who badly needed polish. They are getting it, but still need some more. Bamba and Efe probably top that list, but many of our guys need that last little bit of skills development.
- We have got to stop with the series of mental disconnects. That is a maturity thing. We are better than we were, but this single thing has cost us several games this year. To take the next step, we need to overcome it.
