It's July 1st, when is some clarity around this season going to happen?
- Thread starter ttowncoug
- Start date
IF Rolo EVER offers Shumpert we WILL HAVE clarity around the BIG3 situation and IF they will be attending WSU. BUT THIS looks to be BLOWING IT big time and so if the season is OVER WHO CARES.
Good stuff but not nearly, potentially, nearly potentially, sufficient, enough, MORE THAN ENOUGH, numbers, percentages, likelihoods, fractions, decimal points, chance.
If it were me..... all non con games are cancelled, it would be an all PAC 12 season, empty stadiums, teams fly in the day before, kickoff at 10, 1, 4 and fly home directly. No nonsense, all business, in and out and done.
There isn't gonna be teams flying all over the country being exposed to who knows what who knows where.
These are student athletes. Protect their health by all means necessary.
All that being said, I don't see the season happening. Too many hotspots.
There isn't gonna be teams flying all over the country being exposed to who knows what who knows where.
These are student athletes. Protect their health by all means necessary.
All that being said, I don't see the season happening. Too many hotspots.
The NFL can isolate themselves and maybe have a season. Just not possible in HS or college.
I go up and down on the Pandemic like a yo yo but TODAY I feel the most likely scenarios are:
1. The season is cancelled.
2.The season is started out of desperation but within 3-4 weeks is shut down when multiple teams have major outbreaks.
Gut feeling is there will be ~ no season. Huge financial setback at schools across the country. Recent article how WSU is going to be $100M in the deficit, (see yesterday's Seattle Times or SR).
I wouldn't be surprised if the feds roll out an electronic bailout, (meaning they print the money....and guys...this does not come from tax payers).....give all the hardship schools a forgiveness bailout, because of COVID. No games, no revenue. A bailout is unfortunately needed, and the only solution to keep everyone above water.
They'll need to again, digitally print the money....knowing the feds will never get paid back. It's a grant. It would save all of the athletic departments which have relied and forecasted on TV revenue, gate receipts, donations and merchandise sales to maintain operations, facilities and overhead.
We may be in denial...but if there's no season....the feds are going to need to step in. Sounds crazy and unprecedented....but wouldn't be a surprise if they fund the loss revenue.
I wouldn't be surprised if the feds roll out an electronic bailout, (meaning they print the money....and guys...this does not come from tax payers).....give all the hardship schools a forgiveness bailout, because of COVID. No games, no revenue. A bailout is unfortunately needed, and the only solution to keep everyone above water.
They'll need to again, digitally print the money....knowing the feds will never get paid back. It's a grant. It would save all of the athletic departments which have relied and forecasted on TV revenue, gate receipts, donations and merchandise sales to maintain operations, facilities and overhead.
We may be in denial...but if there's no season....the feds are going to need to step in. Sounds crazy and unprecedented....but wouldn't be a surprise if they fund the loss revenue.
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You may see schools across the country close. Small colleges could be in for a rough year.
This is why we can’t have nice things - like a football season.
I honestly think colleges and large scale events will be shut down until spring, at the earliest. Anybody working for these universities with responsibility for protecting the schools from lawsuits probably has their hair on fire
Unfortunately, as each day passes, it's become apparent to me nothing's happening any where regarding much of anything until after the election in November.
We do not have leaders who want solutions. They want power.
We do not have leaders who want solutions. They want power.
As long as wide spread paranoia and fear-mongering is allowed, we won't have anything. Everyone right now is taking the steps to make things happen, but once someone gets sick or there is heavy criticism blasted at them they will fold.
Here is an example:
Newsweek headline -
500 Delta Airline Staff Test Positive for Coronavirus, 10 Dead
What isn't in the headline is that this is for their worldwide organization of over 90,000 people. You'll find that information about 5 paragraphs down. And for those who are less than math inclined, thats <0.5% infection rate, and 0.0.1 mortality rate. OH, lets not forget that IF YOU HAPPEN TO READ FURTHER Delta reports that their infection rates have been steadily declining since March and are 5x lower than the national rate.
Also, there's this little nugget I found today -
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
CDC and certain states have been piling the COVID19 and the anti-body tests into the same piles, so that if you went and got tested tomorrow for anti-bodies and it came back positive, they would count it the same as a nasal swab. This is important to distinguish between, but apparently not when it comes to making policy.
Here is an example:
Newsweek headline -
500 Delta Airline Staff Test Positive for Coronavirus, 10 Dead
What isn't in the headline is that this is for their worldwide organization of over 90,000 people. You'll find that information about 5 paragraphs down. And for those who are less than math inclined, thats <0.5% infection rate, and 0.0.1 mortality rate. OH, lets not forget that IF YOU HAPPEN TO READ FURTHER Delta reports that their infection rates have been steadily declining since March and are 5x lower than the national rate.
Also, there's this little nugget I found today -
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/...-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
CDC and certain states have been piling the COVID19 and the anti-body tests into the same piles, so that if you went and got tested tomorrow for anti-bodies and it came back positive, they would count it the same as a nasal swab. This is important to distinguish between, but apparently not when it comes to making policy.
Flooding the economy with money will at some point lead to massive inflation which is just an invisible tax.
It does look a little like someone is trying to cook the books but I imagine you realize that particular book cooking would tend to make an outbreak appear less bad and allow for earlier reopening. The percent positive out of total tests administered is an important criteria for determining how bad an outbreak you are dealing with. If you mix in antibody tests which are almost certain to have a very high negative rate, you dilute the importance of positive nasal swab tests. This is probably just a dumbass mistake by somebody at CDC. But if you need a conspiracy theory to be able to sleep at night, this conspiracy would be the work of people trying to minimize the severity of the problem, not people trying to create hysteria.
Also, notwithstanding the faith some have in MMT, there's at least some danger of the rate demanded to lend $ to the U.S. government going up, which would lead either to more visible taxes and/or more printing (which would perpetuate those issues).
Its not conspiracy if its real. It means that the authority that we are trusting to guide us and lead us has had their head up their ass. I love that its fine to point out when Trump has his head up his ass (all the time), but if someone points out actual, factual idiocy on the part of the CDC its a conspiracy theory. The conspiracy is - you can't make this shit up. They royally screwed the pooch on getting actual tests, and the tests that we have now may or may not be accurate enough to actually use the data - nobody knows and apparently nobody cares. Also, if you read the article (which apparently you didn't), they aren't reporting negative results, only positive.
And yes, it would actually further the point that both the infection and mortality rate are lower than has been reported, but that isn't whats plastered on the headlines, is it? "US cases are soaring", "US worst country in the world" etc is what making news, and why? Fear. Fear sells and fear motivates to compliance. I would much rather have someone say "hey, we need masks b/c don't be an asshole" than trying to manipulate me with fear mongering, but that's just me.
With the size of debt amassed by US governments and businesses, any substantial increase in interest rates would be catastrophic. The Fed would have no choice but to buy even more bonds thus monetizing the debt. I have to think that approach will at some point lead to serious inflation but it’s not likely to happen right away. Probably will take a few years or maybe decades to materialize. Then we can blame it on some guy that had nothing to do with it like we always do. Maybe Jimmy Carter or Gray Davis have grandchildren that will volunteer to participate in the family legacy.
Well I did read the article and they are reporting positive tests and total tests administered. I think even the CDC could figure out how many negatives they had using that data but the important calculation is the percent positive. Positive tests divided by total tests. If it’s much above 10% you likely have a problem. If you add in a batch of antibody tests with only a 2% positive rate, it would make things look better wouldn’t it.
Perhaps to save Title IX sports...
..or if the Feds did intervene it would be with conditions or an overseer.
Perhaps even insisting that CougEd is the new WSU AD?
Yep. I saw a modeling (pre-COVID-19) of something like a 5% 10-year treasury rate and the impacts were massive.
I can tell you that the first question addressed in the WSU town hall last week was from a student who asked, “Will there be restrictions on parties?” Think that was asked first to drive home a point. WSU has been very clear, at least to incoming freshman, that if you are not willing to follow the rules that will be in place, perhaps you should make plans to attend a different school.
Fall is going to be very, very different than anything we’ve seen before, obviously.
My nephew is attending San Diego State as a freshman in the Fall.
The university has decided all out of state students will be in San Diego and distance learn from their residence. CA students will distance learn from home. No discounts on tuition or room and board.
At least that’s their plan as if today.
The university has decided all out of state students will be in San Diego and distance learn from their residence. CA students will distance learn from home. No discounts on tuition or room and board.
At least that’s their plan as if today.
The discounts are coming. You cannot continue to expect kids to pay for an in person education while getting an online education.
The consumer will find a better deal.
Not that I can identify, but highly reliable. And there’s also common sense...I’d just about guarantee that this happens whenever you tell an 18-22 year old they have to stay home for 2 weeks. They’re going to bend the rules.
And one of the VPs on the call said very nearly what you did - if you won’t follow the rules, don’t come. They will come anyway...to party with their friends.
Fall will look different, but I’ve started wondering if it should. This virus, for the most part, doesn’t make the college-age population severely ill, and rarely kills them. It looks pretty similar to flu in mortality at that age. So why not treat it like we used to handle chickenpox - let them get it and gain some immunity. Make accommodations for the vulnerable populations and help them protect themselves, but release the healthy to go to school/work/etc.
Some community measures might be necessary - especially in places like Pullman who have limited medical services - but the longer this has gone on, the more clear it has become that this bug’s mortality rate is nowhere near what the early advertising said, especially if you’re young and healthy. It’s higher than flu, but by 2 or 3x, not by 50x.
Natural immunity (even when duration is unknown) beats a hurried vaccine. Right now, I’d rather take my chances with the virus than with a rushed, barely tested vaccination.
Are you assuming that they wouldn't need hospital care/stays?
Overwhelming the medical community in Pullman with kids needing services, which they will regardless of how resilient they are, could lead to disaster for older people.
I think the disease experience on a college campus would be similar to that experienced by the military. Seems like the age distribution would be similar. The overall health in the military population is probably better though. Last numbers I saw for the military was that out of about 18,000 positive tests they had several hundred hospitalizations and around 40 deaths. I guess parents and administrators will have to decide if numbers like those are something they can tolerate. I’m not sure what decisions will be made but hopefully they keep in mind that it will take very little to overwhelm Whitman county medical facilities. They will need to be ready to transport overflow to Spokane.
As long as death rates continue their decline (despite an apparent media blackout) we will play, these recent spikes are more testing and riot spikes. The increase in hospitalizations is because they are now open to elective surgery. Also never mentioned. Younger people are getting this, older - and more likely to require a bed - are not. Add to that the improved therapies and we are well on our way to a season, as we have been told from the start.....it’s about DATA, not just selective (case spikes) data the media spend 24/7 hawking.
One thing to mention- at a minimum if people certain age groups are having surgery, they’re required to be tested. That will catch some asymptomatics.
You are looking at the wrong data. It is about lawsuits. One person contact traces back to your stadium and dies. When their family files suit against the school, what is the schools level of exposure???
This is about risk and money. This is about how much $ the school is gonna pay out if fans get the virus and prove damages. Or students. Or staff.
Every P5 school in the nation has spoken with medical professionals about having games and fans. Their next call was to their attorney. After that their insurance agent.
Ohio State is having kids AND parents sign waivers. I doubt it was the data from medical professionals that drove the decision. It was lawyers and insurance agents.
They are gonna drive this plane to the end of the runway and turn off the engines.
Valid point.
I am guessing we all copy tOSU model. Still risky.
Maybe the SEC and Clemson have the right idea as they apparently will have herd immunity by Fall. Still need to worry about refs, coaches, etc though.
Herd immunity only works if the team you're playing has herd immunity too. If you have it and the team you’re playing doesn't.... you just gave it to an entire football program, staff and then those kids roll thru the student body.
If you are a parent of a player, what is the price you are willing to settle out of court for when your son dies of covid???
If you are a university, how much $ are you willing to pay out for dead kids???
Alabama has lots of $ and no shortage of talent so maybe they are willing to pay. Other schools not so much.
If games are played be ready for kids to get sick and some will die.... for $.
there have been less than 200 deaths of 0-24 year olds from covid in the U.S...we are talking minuscule #s here people.
In addition to all of this testing and results being published, the CDC has also made a statement about tests potentially coming up positive for someone who may just have the common cold. Not sure what the actual statistics are on that and if they're being caught in time before being reported, but according to the CDC, the common cold virus is a type of coronavirus.
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