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Leach & Analytics

WASH ST A&M FAN

Head Coach
Sep 4, 2002
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So, I listen to XM Radio’s VSIN channel & have heard a number of times how much time Leach spent with analytics experts namely Warren Sharp at the recent MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston.

Leach was a guest speaker at the conference, but what I’ve heard over&over on XM was him and Sharp (considered football industry leader in analytics) spent a great deal of time taking a deeper dive in his work & findings

Interesting if anything comes out of it going forward.
 
Hopefully running between the tackles when they drop 8 comes up in one of these analytics.
 
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Hopefully running between the tackles when they drop 8 comes up in one of these analytics.

Easier said then done.

The run plays are a read option on ever single play. Leach does not call this, the QB calls this.

To understand how this works the offense lines up and gets the play from the sideline. The QB reads the defensive formation and can change the play into one that is more favorable (including a run)

The run play is called when it looks to be favorable, however this can be disguised.

For example in a traditional set of 4/3 you have
4 lineman 3 backers and 4 DBs (2 corners and 2 safeties)

Now the corners are on the outside receivers and that leaves 2 linebackers to handle the two inside receivers. These of course should be mismatches and this the air raid destroys the traditional 4/3.

The adaptation to defend against the spread are the 4-2-5.

This comprises 4 down lineman 2 linebackers and a Nickel back and 4 DBs

Now a smaller Nickel is more effective than a LB and so this defense fairs better but is still susceptible depending on where the other inside receiver is.

Now you have a 3/3/5 stack which is similar to the 4/2/5 but instead of 4 down lineman you have 3 and 3 LBs and 5 true DBs this is even more favorable and often is what you see when it is rush 3 drop 8.

In this defense the 3 LBs play a zone read while the other 5 DBs play man or a complimentary zone. This is the disguise and can make it difficult to read a situation.

So with the 3 LBS they may drop into their zone or 2 may drop or they all could stay home. You don’t REALLY know for sure. You try to figure that out as best you can through motion to see if they are playing man or zone, and you look at how the Corners/Safeties and Nickel are moving to figure that out.

So by the time the ball is snapped the chess match is really between the QB and the defense. He could audible to a run guessing that the LBs will vacate, but often they only vacate until after they have read the back.

What really is needed (and we saw Minshew do some of this last year) is play action

If the RBs are trying to read the back to know if they should vacate or not then that 1-2 second delay in the possible exchange will freeze them in place (because they don’t know if the back will have the ball or not)

If they are frozen in place then there is a high chance the zone has holes in it where the inside receivers will be because of that delay that gave them a several yard head start.

Since we operate out of a gun exclusively I think the best thing would be a play action draw incorporated into every single snap with subtle audibles to activate an actual run.

It’s the one component I think we are missing offensively. Now every single play the defense has no ****ing clue if it’s a run or pass and they have to stay in place to try and figure out which one it is.
 
I mean this in the most positive way....one has to recognize that CML is a football geek in the truest sense. If his sport were baseball he would be all over defensive shifts, pitching match ups, etc. When it comes to offensive football, I have to assume that a lot of his film review time is devoted to understanding defensive probabilities. Of course, we have not even played the spring game yet. But I could see CML using a two back set with one being Markoff often enough this year that there is a legitimate straight ahead run threat. It will require some QB reprogramming, because to this point that has not been even the 4th or 5th priority call for the QB at the line...but on the other hand, we never had a guy who could consistently move a DT for a couple of yards if he were not hit straight up. I agree with Tron that a play action draw would have a purpose, and it might be the best choice when your biggest back is barely over 200 pounds. Markoff might alter the equation a bit, though, with his low center of gravity and strong legs. I'm hoping we see some of that in the spring game, although at this point most of the QB's will be trying to prove that they can move the team with their arm, and a dive play probably would not help their case much in terms of trying to earn a starting job.
 
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