Let’s talk Idaho
- Thread starter wsudefense
- Start date
I will only accept 42-0 with our starting defense on the field for the final play and Coach Dickert telling Idahos coach to go F himself after the game.
If their dbacks can cover, and assuming they get some pass rush against our new O line, I'm thinking 31 points if we get no turnovers. Add one TD for every turnover, and with a +2 on turnovers we would be talking 45 points. However, this is the "shakedown" effort for the O, so I'm thinking that we turn it over, also, and turnovers will be even.
Our D is probably closer to fully developed at this point than our O, so let's say 13 points for Idaho.
31-13, Cougs.
Our D is probably closer to fully developed at this point than our O, so let's say 13 points for Idaho.
31-13, Cougs.
I hope you are wrong. If we only put up 31 on Idaho it’s gonna be a long year.
This^^^^
Wulf beat Idaho St by a score of something like about 59 to 3, etc.
And that was with SHET. And that team that beat Idaho St lost 69-0 to USC, etc.
Idaho is about the same as Idaho St.
And Cam Ward, Renard Bell, and Henly and defense and Dickert, etc, is so much better then Wulfs SHET team, etc, that if they lose, or have a close game, they only win 1,2,3,4 games. If they win by 9 to 13, then win only 3,4,5 games. If win by 13 to 17 to 20+ points, then win about 4,5,6 games. If win by 19 to 26 points then win 5,6,7 games. If win by 28 to 38 points, then win 6,7,8 games. If win by 37 to 47 then win 7,8,9 games. If win by 49 to 59 then win 8,9,10 games. If win by 59 to 69 then win 9,10,11 games. If win by 69 to 79, then win 10,11,12,13 games.
WSU 99.999% chance that wins by at least a 39 to 3 type score at MINIMUM, BOAT RACES IDAHO.
We should score >40. Agree with those who say if we don't it is not a good sign.
Ward should lite them up. That freshman running back from Texas will break some big gains.
Ward should lite them up. That freshman running back from Texas will break some big gains.
I'm gonna be contrarian and say WSU 17 Idaho 6. Offense still has growing pains in this game but defense does well. I've been around football long enough to have seen that pattern many times with a new OC, QB, patchy OL etc. in their first game.
And if we don't drop 40 on them in our first game, it doesn't mean diddly squat for the rest of the season.
My hope is things get ironed out from that game and they perform well against Wiscy.
And Mikalalas, NO the year we beat Idaho St is not the year we lost to $C 69-0. It was in 2011 that we played ISU. We didn't even play $C that year.
And if we don't drop 40 on them in our first game, it doesn't mean diddly squat for the rest of the season.
My hope is things get ironed out from that game and they perform well against Wiscy.
And Mikalalas, NO the year we beat Idaho St is not the year we lost to $C 69-0. It was in 2011 that we played ISU. We didn't even play $C that year.
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Yeah, Good point. But I still won't be surprised nor disillusioned if our O doesn't light it up first game.
Equally relevant and more current (from this month) and from a state that produced Coach Dickert, Coach Leach, Coach Erickson, and Coach Walden is the fact that Liz Cheney at home and in Year 6 just lost by 38 points.
I’m in line with ATACFD’s rationale, though I do think that the talent gap works more in our favor, and inflates the score a bit.
I think Dickert’s defense handles business pretty well, but a few early season lapses let the vandals into double digits.
I think our offensive line transitioning back to wide splits hides a few warts, but ultimately it’s a finesse, timing based offense that is still getting broken in.
We miss on some layups, cash in on a few broken plays and win a kinda ugly game in convincing fashion.
I’m thinking
Vandals 18
Cougs 44
I think Dickert’s defense handles business pretty well, but a few early season lapses let the vandals into double digits.
I think our offensive line transitioning back to wide splits hides a few warts, but ultimately it’s a finesse, timing based offense that is still getting broken in.
We miss on some layups, cash in on a few broken plays and win a kinda ugly game in convincing fashion.
I’m thinking
Vandals 18
Cougs 44
Well if anyone can stitch that together I give mik a 45- -80% of being successful in doing so
10 years of leach conditioned us to expect the unexpected. Lose to Portland St then go on to win 9 games. I feel Dickerts squads are a little more predictable. If we struggle putting up points on Idaho we gonna suck this year. Maybe we will, who knows.
One thing I’m confident in is Idaho ain’t out scoring us 38-0 in the 2nd half.
CJD puts it out that we deserve 35K in the stands for Idaho opener on Sept. 3rd.
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This.
This is not just a new, below average, to average, to above average to semi good QB, new, below average, to average, to above average, to semi good, Paul wulf, Jody Sears, untested untried fcs HC, Assist HC, new offense, etc.
Eric has P5 awesome P5 experience under Leach. Eric was one of the best HC in FCS history, DEVELOPED Cam Ward, was Cam Ward's HC for 2 years, is with Cam Ward as his O coordinator.
And Eric is one of the best O Coordinators
Because of that there is a LOT of synergy, Rapport, knowledge, etc, between them, and BOTH know the Air Raid, and Eric's version of Air Raid, extremely well.
And Cam Ward, is one of the best QB's, and was one of the best QB's in FCS history. 4700 yards, 47 TD's and only 10 INT, in season, which one of best FCS years in FCS history.
Cam is rated between Top 25 to 33rd QB in nation right now by the experts(Athlon, Phil Steel, SI, ESPN, types, etc.
Cam has a awesome offense. Yes the OL, does not have depth, has problems, issues, question marks, 1,2 injuries, etc. BUT this is the Air Raid that's designed to mitigate OL problems, and Eric and Cam can have a quick read, 1, 2 sec, 4,5,6 yard pass game, etc, to overcome a semi bad, etc, OL.
And have one of best WR corp in Renard Bell, Stribbling, Ollie.
And like I said, THIS IS IDAHO, that is like the IDAHO ST that PAUL WULF AND HIS SHET TEAM BEAT BY about a score of about 60-13.
If can't do at least 39 to 7 vs a Idaho St type, while that doesn't mean your as bad as Paul Wulf, it does, should mean your LIKELY a bad coach, that will LIKELY ONLY WIN 5 GAMES AT EXTREME BEST
If it was Wisconsin, or CSU, or a good Pac 12 team(Not one of the bad Pac 12 teams), then yes it would be a close game, etc.
But Not with Idaho. 39 to 7 type of score should be the ABSOLUTE MINIMUM SCORE.
And absolutely if WSU only wins by a close game, score, absolutely would be a sign, that WSU wouldn't do well.
Like I correctly said Idaho is like Idaho St, that Wulf DESTROYED with SHET. If can't do as good as Wulf did vs a Idaho St, Idaho type, etc, and only have a close score, low score game, YOUR LIKELY NOT VERY GOOD, LIKELY NOT GONA BE GOOD.
Idaho isn't a Portland St(Portland St was actually quite a good team, and the WEATHER killed WSU). CSU is a Portland St. And even if were a Portland St, this is not HC leach type that lose to Idaho State, Idaho types, then go on to do just fine later.
If WSU has a low, close score, game, win, loss, etc, IT WOULD AT LEAST SEMI LIKELY THAT WSU WOULD ONLY WIN ABOUT 2,3,4, wins, 5 wins at best.
WSU is going to have at least a 39 to 9 game, at minimum.
Also Cam has had a good Fall Camp, AWESOME scrimmage, ABSOLUTELY AWESOMELY LIT UP THE DEFENSE, THREW A 36 yard TD.
And WSU's defense is WAY THE HELL BETTER THEN IDAHO'S Defense. Even if it was, WSU's 2nd, 3rd string Defense, even them are better then Idaho's defense.
Cam, Eric, Renard Bell, Stribbling, etc, will, SHOULD, absolutely TORCH Idaho's defense.
WSU MIGHT or MIGHT NOT have some hiccups, slow start, jitters, turnovers, etc 1st 1,2,3 possessions, 1st, 2nd Quarter, but by the 3rd, 4th quarter at extreme worst WSU would likely not only pull away, but then BURY THEM.
There is about a 99.999% chance WSU destroys Idaho.
Only way that doesn't happen is if WSU doesn't show up, and Dickert, Eric, Cam, players either don't step on the gas pedal, and or take their feet off the gas pedal, neck of Idaho, and let them, Idaho back into game.
Or if there. is a RECORD number of injuries. Or if Cam gets injured, or other key injuries(s)
but sans something like that WSU will destroy Idaho, and if they don't, have a low score, close game, win, loss, etc, WSU would, should only win 5 games at extreme most, best, and only win 2,3,4,5 games.
Each of the predicted scores are fair. Idaho will be rebuilding for the first time in years. The Vandals remained in a constant hold pattern of futility under Petrino. Our new coach should be able to recruit and coach at the FCS level.
Many Vandals will be in attendance simply because this is a historic game for the Palouse. See ya Saturday.
Many Vandals will be in attendance simply because this is a historic game for the Palouse. See ya Saturday.
I’m old enough to remember when Idaho beat us…twice. There’s few guarantees in CFB anymore.
Twice…in a row
I expect to win this game, though I would not bet my life or my house on it.
I am very interested to see how many goofs I see that appear to be communication related. That can be on the O line; or QB to receiver; or D play caller re: coverage....it can take a lot of forms. I'd be really surprised if we don't see some of that...I am just hoping not to see too much.
I am very interested to see how many goofs I see that appear to be communication related. That can be on the O line; or QB to receiver; or D play caller re: coverage....it can take a lot of forms. I'd be really surprised if we don't see some of that...I am just hoping not to see too much.
Counterpoint, you’d think plenty of that is to be expected in game one. However, one thing I recall about the spring game is how clean it was, and the spring game usually looks like that too. There were very few of those types of mental errors.
I guess before I put a score out there I'd be curious to know what CJD's views on game strategy are. Being a defensive minded guy, my first guess would be that he strives to keep the ball away from the opponent and play stout defense, but I could be completely wrong.
I've posted multiple times about scoring and average scores, both nationally and in the Pac. History says that around 30 points for any team is about average for both. Teams that score more, win more and vice versa.
I don't expect this team to be world beaters, or even in the top half of the Pac; there are just too many unknowns and variables, which again, history says does not lend itself to teams being successful.
All that being said, I do believe that for a team in our position with limited resources and talent, running a "gimmick" offense like the AR lends itself to the highest probability of success due to multiple factors that have been discussed on the board at length. I don't know what twist CJD has added to the AR other than a TE/ H-back, but as long as the concepts are the same there should be a reasonable expectation of scoring 30+ against equal or lesser opponents.
Cougs -35
Vandals - 31
I've posted multiple times about scoring and average scores, both nationally and in the Pac. History says that around 30 points for any team is about average for both. Teams that score more, win more and vice versa.
I don't expect this team to be world beaters, or even in the top half of the Pac; there are just too many unknowns and variables, which again, history says does not lend itself to teams being successful.
All that being said, I do believe that for a team in our position with limited resources and talent, running a "gimmick" offense like the AR lends itself to the highest probability of success due to multiple factors that have been discussed on the board at length. I don't know what twist CJD has added to the AR other than a TE/ H-back, but as long as the concepts are the same there should be a reasonable expectation of scoring 30+ against equal or lesser opponents.
Cougs -35
Vandals - 31
Your logic makes sense to me, but based only on talent level and having a defense-minded coach, I'll be very disappointed (and concerned) if Idaho puts up 31 on us. If they get anything over 20, I'll be increasingly worried.
This is going to get ugly. 52-17 Cougs.
I'll go out on a limb and bet your house on a win...or Ed's million dollar Seattle house. 😀
Seriously though, we will win easily. No offense to Idaho.
If Idaho scores over 30 on us then we are in for a very long season.
This is what Vandals expect of the game. No one is misguided by what will likely happen. Most Vandals are excited about this opportunity to test a team of unknowns. PAC12 money, facilities, and FBS scholies are too much of a mountain to climb. But, WSU will be the best team we play all year. And, there should be positives coming out of this game. Also, WSU is on the upswing (8-4 for 2022) and a win in the Apple Cup is my guess.
Cougs win easily, the question is how long do we keep the starting QB in the game? I hope he is done at the end of 3 if not sooner. I know he needs the reps, but if he shows enough through 3 quarters, no need to push it, it's a long season with a big game the following week. Dickert seems to be well prepared and disciplined, I would like to think his football team plays the same way, I guess we find out on Saturday.
There are whole stretches of Seattle that are million dollar houses, much like SoCal. If we were committed to effective mass transit that phenomena would be less of an issue, but that is a topic for another thread. Maybe next summer...
I've learned never to bet anything that I am not prepared to lose, regardless of apparent odds. That goes double for Cougar football. After more than 50 years of watching, we've actually lost a few of those games (including against Idaho), and came within a whisker (
the Montana State game in 2010 being a good example) in several others.Realistically I don't expect this game to be close, and as various Idaho fans have pointed out (read their own boards if you want a complete picture; they are pretty rational), most of them are hoping for signs of a competent coaching staff. Their last several recruiting classes have rated well vis a vis the rest of their league, but the team has not shown it. Most seem to feel that the coaching staff was simply incompetent, and now that there is new blood running the program, they hope to see good decisions and hopefully some improved execution. That and a somewhat respectable game would be chalked up as an emotional win, if not a scoreboard win. We are implementing a new offense (with some similarities to before, but also some significant differences), but have a D system that is about the same. Idaho has an all new coaching staff, so you know that they had a lot of ground to cover. I expect us to make first game mistakes. Under the circumstances, I expect Idaho to make even more first game mistakes than we make. Ultimately, I think the magnitude of the score will come down to turnovers. If by chance neither team has a lot of turnovers, we probably win by something like 4 TD's. Turnovers either way could change that quickly. The other thing that could change margin of victory is if Idaho can rush for some first downs. That eats clock and even if they don't manage long, sustained drives it will keep the magnitude of the scoring down.
I am looking forward to this season, after 3 strange years, finally seems like there is some stability around the program, Dickert is still a bit of an unknown, but he is disciplined, organized, and has a chip in his shoulder, and something to prove, and from his past represents all the small school coaches out there. He didn't allow his team to beat themselves, which is nice to see for once. Also I do believe he made some good hires on his staff. Hopefully the team reflects the discipline of the head coach.
On offense QB appears to be an upgrade, little or no drop off, maybe an upgrade at WR, RBs are a concern, I am just hoping some Freshman surprise us, maybe Watson is a new person now that he is it. The OL is a concern, but there is more experience there than we realize, Gomnes started all 13 games, Kingston started 6 or 7, Stephens was a 2 year starter at Utah St, and Fifita started 5 or 6 games last year, the unknown is Hilborn, and there isn't much depth, another concern is the new OL coach and new blocking scheme, TE might help there. Hopefully QB play can hide our deficiencies. On Defense the line is all back and experienced, Linebackers, Woods and Rodgers are gone Henley takes over for Woods, and I think will do well, Mauigoa and Brown are an upgrade over Rodgers. The DBs have experience, just plugging in a lot of new faces, other than Marsh, if we have some speed back there and they can tackle, I do believe the D is better than last year. Need to keep forcing turnovers, lived off of that last year, with pressure we can apply on the QB, I think they can make that happen as well. I do believe this team can win 7-8 games if they stay healthy. If they can surprise Wisconsin, we raise the bar.
On offense QB appears to be an upgrade, little or no drop off, maybe an upgrade at WR, RBs are a concern, I am just hoping some Freshman surprise us, maybe Watson is a new person now that he is it. The OL is a concern, but there is more experience there than we realize, Gomnes started all 13 games, Kingston started 6 or 7, Stephens was a 2 year starter at Utah St, and Fifita started 5 or 6 games last year, the unknown is Hilborn, and there isn't much depth, another concern is the new OL coach and new blocking scheme, TE might help there. Hopefully QB play can hide our deficiencies. On Defense the line is all back and experienced, Linebackers, Woods and Rodgers are gone Henley takes over for Woods, and I think will do well, Mauigoa and Brown are an upgrade over Rodgers. The DBs have experience, just plugging in a lot of new faces, other than Marsh, if we have some speed back there and they can tackle, I do believe the D is better than last year. Need to keep forcing turnovers, lived off of that last year, with pressure we can apply on the QB, I think they can make that happen as well. I do believe this team can win 7-8 games if they stay healthy. If they can surprise Wisconsin, we raise the bar.
