Michigan, Washington, Penn State and UCF all need to drop 6 spots

[jarvis1981]

It doesn't matter about the weather conditions; it doesn't matter who is injured or who skips bowl games; it doesn't matter what the score was or if you made a last minute comeback; all that matters is did you win the big game which is the bowl game for each team?
If you lose, then you drop six places and others move up.
If the voters are consistent then the Cougars move into the top ten.

 

[95coug]

It doesn't matter about the weather conditions; it doesn't matter who is injured or who skips bowl games; it doesn't matter what the score was or if you made a last minute comeback; all that matters is did you win the big game which is the bowl game for each team?
If you lose, then you drop six places and others move up.
If the voters are consistent then the Cougars move into the top ten.

Your last sentence said all you need to know, and explained why we probably top out at 11.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

Your last sentence said all you need to know, and explained why we probably top out at 11.

We’re 12 right now. You’re saying we move up 1 spot?

 

[95coug]

We’re 12 right now. You’re saying we move up 1 spot?

That wouldn’t surprise me.

You’re talking the AP poll. We get no benefit there from PSU’s loss. Texas will pass us. To get to 11, we have to jump over 2 of UCF, UW, and Michigan. If Georgia can come back, #10 is in reach. If Texas wins, I don’t think 10 is realistic.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

That wouldn’t surprise me.

You’re talking the AP poll. We get no benefit there from PSU’s loss. Texas will pass us. To get to 11, we have to jump over 2 of UCF, UW, and Michigan. If Georgia can come back, #10 is in reach. If Texas wins, I don’t think 10 is realistic.

UCF will drop like a rock. They played no one. UW will have 4 losses, 4. No way they don’t drop.

 

[Coug90]

UCF will drop like a rock. They played no one. UW will have 4 losses, 4. No way they don’t drop.

Michigan was obliterated in their last two games. If they are ahead of us I’d be surprised.

 

[95coug]

Michigan was obliterated in their last two games. If they are ahead of us I’d be surprised.

Yes, but....they’re Michigan

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

CFP rankings used

Teams 3(ND), 4(OKLA), 5(UGA), 7(MICH), 8(UCF), 9(UW), 12(PSU) all lost.

Directly behind us, 14 (UK) and 15 (UT) won.

The only teams left in the top 10 that didn't lose are 6 (tOSU) and 10 (UF).

Bama and Clemson will finish 1 and 2.

tOSU comes in 3.

Then the rest of it is all subjective fckery.

ND will only have one loss, but they were exposed as a fraud. They drop to 5 or 6.

OKLA will probably stay at four just because, who else do you put in front of them - Florida?

Florida jumps to 5 simply so you can drop ND enough to show you were paying attention.

ND 6.

So now you have to ask yourself - will the committee look at who is left and say "WSU is a better program than Georgia, Michigan, UCF, UW, PSU? And possibly UT".

I can see us passing UW, I can see UCF as well.

So UGA gets the 7 spot, UM to 8.

Will UCF get punished enough to allow WSU into the top 10?

Honestly, now that I've done the math, I don't see how we don't get ranked at least 9 or 10. But then again, I was certain we'd get a NY6 bid as well.

 

[Fab5Coug]

Possibility Kentucky jumps us as well. SEC and all.

 

[COUGinNCW]

Possibility Kentucky jumps us as well. SEC and all.

And Texas.

 

[chipdouglas]

And Texas.

Texas is definitely jumping us. I'm also close to 100% certain that we will hurdle Penn State, UW and UCF. We should hurdle Michigan after that abomination but that's a 6-spot tumble for a team beloved by the committee. I do think us ending at #9 or #10 is a good bet.

 

[chipdouglas]

It won't happen, and I don't think we're better, but I also think they need to take a look at Georgia which has now lost 3, including its last 2, even that including an ugly no-show loss to UT.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Can diminish the fact that they need certain teams in the top 10 so they can continue their circle jerk of preseason ranking them high, so they stay high in the polls and end the season ranked high, so they can be preseason ranked high...

 

[95coug]

CFP rankings used

Teams 3(ND), 4(OKLA), 5(UGA), 7(MICH), 8(UCF), 9(UW), 12(PSU) all lost.

Directly behind us, 14 (UK) and 15 (UT) won.

The only teams left in the top 10 that didn't lose are 6 (tOSU) and 10 (UF).

Bama and Clemson will finish 1 and 2.

tOSU comes in 3.

Then the rest of it is all subjective fckery.

ND will only have one loss, but they were exposed as a fraud. They drop to 5 or 6.

OKLA will probably stay at four just because, who else do you put in front of them - Florida?

Florida jumps to 5 simply so you can drop ND enough to show you were paying attention.

ND 6.

So now you have to ask yourself - will the committee look at who is left and say "WSU is a better program than Georgia, Michigan, UCF, UW, PSU? And possibly UT".

I can see us passing UW, I can see UCF as well.

So UGA gets the 7 spot, UM to 8.

Will UCF get punished enough to allow WSU into the top 10?

Honestly, now that I've done the math, I don't see how we don't get ranked at least 9 or 10. But then again, I was certain we'd get a NY6 bid as well.

I’ll use the AP, since there won’t be another CFP.
Bama & Clemson will be 1-2
3 Ohio state (could get to #2 if Clemson loses)
4 Oklahoma (probably - everyone else lost, and a 3 loss Florida team won’t get to #4)
5 Notre Dame (exposed, but still a 1 loss team. And still Notre Dame)
6 Florida
7 LSU
8-9 Georgia-Texas
10 Michigan (all 3 losses to top 10 teams)
11 WSU
12 UW
13 UCF

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I’ll use the AP, since there won’t be another CFP.
Bama & Clemson will be 1-2
3 Ohio state (could get to #2 if Clemson loses)
4 Oklahoma (probably - everyone else lost, and a 3 loss Florida team won’t get to #4)
5 Notre Dame (exposed, but still a 1 loss team. And still Notre Dame)
6 Florida
7 LSU
8-9 Georgia-Texas
10 Michigan (all 3 losses to top 10 teams)
11 WSU
12 UW
13 UCF

I forgot to put LSU in my poll.

I don't think they jump UT of the darling Michigan.

Which means does the committee think UT is better than WSU. Given the P12's showing at bowls, there is not question that they do.

I was wondering how I managed to talk myself out of my previous argument of WSU not getting into the top 10... my logic is truly circular.

 

[acgcoug]

FWIW, I believe there are only 8 teams in D1 ball that have 2 or less losses, and 9 teams with 11 or more wins. Fresno State is one of those 8/9. That theoretically puts us in the 8-10 range when ranking teams with most wins/fewest losses, and those who all played good enough schedules. The loss to the Huskies to end the regular season was just bad timing in regard to the rankings. It didn't give us a chance to climb back up a couple spots with a win or two after.

If not, Fresno St and us would be the only 2 loss our less teams (and 11 wins) not ranked in the top ten. I'm not saying Fresno St should be up there.

Also, I have a hard time seeing how a team with 4 losses should be in the top 12 or lower.

 

[dgibbons]

Sagarin's ratings are current through yesterday. Apparently playing "tough" teams and losing is worth more than winning. The team ranked right in front of WSU made me laugh.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

 

[billyjoecamaro]

It doesn't matter about the weather conditions; it doesn't matter who is injured or who skips bowl games; it doesn't matter what the score was or if you made a last minute comeback; all that matters is did you win the big game which is the bowl game for each team?
If you lose, then you drop six places and others move up.
If the voters are consistent then the Cougars move into the top ten.

I'm guessing #9. No way any 4-loss team is ahead of us.

 

[Coug90]

I'm guessing #9. No way any 4-loss team is ahead of us.

Texas for sure will be

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Sagarin's ratings are current through yesterday. Apparently playing "tough" teams and losing is worth more than winning. The team ranked right in front of WSU made me laugh.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Miss state? Iowa?

Us at 20?

Could any metric be more useless?

I forgot nd state ahead of us. Cool sorry bro.

 

[Coug95man2]

Sagarin's ratings are current through yesterday. Apparently playing "tough" teams and losing is worth more than winning. The team ranked right in front of WSU made me laugh.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

#20?!! This has got to be a joke.

 

[dgibbons]

Miss state? Iowa?

Us at 20?

Could any metric be more useless?

It's rather shocking. But, who knows what data the committee members or AP voters look at. The SOS numbers seem about tight to me, but I cannot fathom how these rankings were compiled.

 

[kougkurt]

Like I said in a different thread. Leach has 50,000 reasons to finish in the top 10.

 

[Coug95man2]

It's rather shocking. But, who knows what data the committee members or AP voters look at. The SOS numbers seem about tight to me, but I cannot fathom how these rankings were compiled.

I realize that we lost to the Fuskies but for them to retain a Top 10 spot with their number of losses and us at #20... mind boggling.

 

[dgibbons]

Miss state? Iowa?

Us at 20?

Could any metric be more useless?

And how about Iowa behind Miss State, who Iowa just beat.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

And how about Iowa behind Miss State, who Iowa just beat.

There scary party is that these rankings were used in the bcs, iirc. I'm sure there are some that still use this, sadly.

 

[95coug]

Sagarin's ratings are current through yesterday. Apparently playing "tough" teams and losing is worth more than winning. The team ranked right in front of WSU made me laugh.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Hard to put much stock in that without knowing how it's really computed. Also pretty hard to take it seriously when it doesn't even separate FCS from FBS.

 

[acgcoug]

Sagarin's ratings are current through yesterday. Apparently playing "tough" teams and losing is worth more than winning. The team ranked right in front of WSU made me laugh.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

8-5 Mississippi St at #7, what a joke...

 

[Flatlandcoug]

The more I look at the list, the harder it is to picture us in the Top 10. The one thing that we have going for us is that the media likes Leach and Minshew. The stories recapping the game were more favorable to WSU than I felt watching it.

 

[TSKCoug]

Eh.....shrugs, no matter what WSU still is 11-2! Really doesn't matter to me what the final rankings are.

 

[Fab5Coug]

Totally unrelated, but Pitt finished 7-7. Has a team ever gone 7-7? Ever? Think about what has to happen to go 7-7. You essentially have to be a 5 loss division champ, lose your conference championship, then lose your bowl game.

They also had 5 "non conference" losses. Bizarre.

 

[FnuLnu]

Totally unrelated, but Pitt finished 7-7. Has a team ever gone 7-7? Ever? Think about what has to happen to go 7-7. You essentially have to be a 5 loss division champ, lose your conference championship, then lose your bowl game.

They also had 5 "non conference" losses. Bizarre.

In the 17 years (1960s & 70s) that the NFL played a 14 game schedule, the Pitt Steelers never finished 7-7

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Eh.....shrugs, no matter what WSU still is 11-2! Really doesn't matter to me what the final rankings are.

I like the idea of being #10 just so we can add it to our list of Top 10 finishes. It would be nice to say that we've had 5 Top 10 finishes in the past 21 seasons. Outside of the blue bloods, not a lot of teams can say that.

 

[chipdouglas]

It's rather shocking. But, who knows what data the committee members or AP voters look at. The SOS numbers seem about tight to me, but I cannot fathom how these rankings were compiled.

His system is proprietary, but clearly he is overcorrecting for SoS.

The fact is, there are so many variables that - by necessity - are not considered in his model, it's just about useless. Injuries, weather (AC, e.g.), emotional David/Goliath games where David gets WAY up... I suspect it's binary W/L, scores, and an incestuous usage of his own power rankings which has multicollinear effects on both power rankings and SoS rankings.

I couldn't do better, but it's worth pointing out the near futility of trying to explain greatness through one or two metrics which probably explain ~35% of variability.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

His system is proprietary, but clearly he is overcorrecting for SoS.

The fact is, there are so many variables that - by necessity - are not considered in his model, it's just about useless. Injuries, weather (AC, e.g.), emotional David/Goliath games where David gets WAY up... I suspect it's binary W/L, scores, and an incestuous usage of his own power rankings which has multicollinear effects on both power rankings and SoS rankings.

I couldn't do better, but it's worth pointing out the near futility of trying to explain greatness through one or two metrics which probably explain ~35% of variability.

North Dakota is up there for beating Iowa in September.

His ranking is broken. End of story. Put ND state up against any AP top 25 and they lose.

 

[Glad Cougar]

North Dakota is up there for beating Iowa in September.

His ranking is broken. End of story. Put ND state up against any AP top 25 and they lose.

Not necessarily. The last FBS team to play NDSU was #13 Iowa in 2016. (They didn't play Iowa this year). The Bison beat them in Iowa City giving them 1 of their 3 losses on the season. NDSU has won 6 straight vs. FBS teams, admittedly the Hawkeyes were the only ranked one at the time. Other wins have come at Iowa State, Kansas State, and Minnesota. Interestingly, Oregon plays NDSU in 2020. Would love to see the Bison win that game.

Glad Cougar

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Not necessarily. The last FBS team to play NDSU was #13 Iowa in 2016. (They didn't play Iowa this year). The Bison beat them in Iowa City giving them 1 of their 3 losses on the season. NDSU has won 6 straight vs. FBS teams, admittedly the Hawkeyes were the only ranked one at the time. Other wins have come at Iowa State, Kansas State, and Minnesota. Interestingly, Oregon plays NDSU in 2020. Would love to see the Bison win that game.

Glad Cougar

I looked it up and Iowa went 8-5 in 2016 when they lost to NDSU and was ranked #38 by Massey and they were #33 in the "also receiving votes" category of the AP Top 25. I'm going to side with Bleed on this one and say that, in general, the best FCS teams would still lose to a run of the mill Top 25 team. EWU was competitive in their game against us but still lost by 35 points at the end of the day......and they are playing for the FCS national championship.

NDSU can certainly beat run of the mill Power 5 teams, but in general, if you lose to NDSU.....you aren't a Top 25 team. Sagarin used to be a pretty good measure of football quality but somewhere along the way, he tweaked his ranking formula and it is far too dependent on overall conference performance now.