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[mikalalas]

Drew Bledsoe's NFL is irrelevant to the point.

The point is he was a FIVE STAR, NUMBER 1 HS QB IN ENTIRE NATION COMING OUT OF HIGHSCHOOL, and maybe even probably #1 HS recruit in nation coming out of HS ON PAPER.

That type of recruit, whether they are Sam, Fred, Joe, Bob, etc, whether they got, went to WSU like Bledsoe or somewhere else, that type of recruit can easily get, command, be worth $50k, to $100k, to $150k, at the right college, before even touching a field, in practice, game, etc.

Those type of players won't goto WSU because of NIL. They are not going to TURN DOWN that kind of NIL money to goto WSU.

Some make the point that those type of players don't goto WSU period, NIL or No Nil.

Bledsoe is proof that those type of players do goto WSU pre NIL.

And it's not just those 5 star types.

4 stars can easily get about $17k to $43k to $73k at the right college.

Those 4 stars are not going to turn down that kind of money to play at WSU.

Remember this is not the ILLEGAL, WRONG, IMMORAL, RULE BREAKING money of the 80's. Some will turn that kind of money down.

This NIL money is LEGIT, LEGAL, WITHIN THE RULES, MORAL, ETC. MOST of these type of players are not going to turn that kind of big time LEGIT money down.

WSU gets about 1,2,3 of these type of 4 stars per class of 25 on average.(PRE NIL).

That's going to change POST NIL to maybe getting 1 4 star every about 3 to 10 years because 1 4 star did strangely say no to the NIL money.

That's a significant decrease to go from 1,2,3 4 stars per year to 1 4 star per 3 to 10 years, all due to NIL.

Then there are the HIGH ended 3 stars, or those on the border, CUSP of being a 3 star or 4 star, where some recruit ranking services say they are a 4 star, and some say they are a 3 star.

Those types are 3.5 star players.

WSU gets a LOT of those. About 3,4,5 per class of 25 per year.

3.5 stars can get about $10k to $20k to $30k in NIL money at the right college.

They are not going to say no to that kind of money to goto wSU.

WSU is going to go from 6 3.5 stars a year to 1 3.5 star every 1,2,3,4 years, which would be a significant decrease

And then there are the 3 stars.

WSU gets about 5 to 7 to 9 to 11 3 stars per class.

3 stars can get about $6k to $11k to $17k at the right college.

They are not going to say no to that.

WSU will go from about 5 to 10 3 stars per year to 1,2,3 3 stars per year.

Again a significant decrease.

2.5 stars(CUSP,BORDELINE between 2 star and 3 star, 3 star by some recruit rankers, 2 star by other recruit rankers)

About 2,3,4,5 2.5 stars goto WSU per year.

They can get about $3k to $6k to 10k at the right college.

WSU will go from 2,3,4,5 per year to 1,2,3 per year

A significant decrease

 

[mikalalas]

And then there are the 3 stars.

WSU gets about 5 to 7 to 9 to 11 3 stars per class.

3 stars can get about $6k to $11k to $17k at the right college.

They are not going to say no to that.

WSU will go from about 5 to 10 3 stars per year to 1,2,3 3 stars per year.

Again a significant decrease.

2.5 stars(CUSP,BORDELINE between 2 star and 3 star, 3 star by some recruit rankers, 2 star by other recruit rankers)

About 2,3,4,5 2.5 stars goto WSU per year.

They can get about $3k to $6k to 10k at the right college.

WSU will go from 2,3,4,5 per year to 1,2,3 per year

A significant decrease

WSU will go from:

1,2,3,4 NR, 1,2,3,4,5 2 stars, 2,3,4,5,6 2.5 stars, 5 to 10 3 stars, 5 3.5 stars, 1,2,3 4 stars

Down to:

3,4,5,6,7 NR, 7 to 13 2 stars, 5 to 10 2.5 stars, 2,3,4 3 stars, 1 3.5 star, no 4 stars

That's a very significant down to almost PAUL WULF recruiting level, all due to NIL.

 

[mikalalas]

WSU will go from:

1,2,3,4 NR, 1,2,3,4,5 2 stars, 2,3,4,5,6 2.5 stars, 5 to 10 3 stars, 5 3.5 stars, 1,2,3 4 stars

Down to:

3,4,5,6,7 NR, 7 to 13 2 stars, 5 to 10 2.5 stars, 2,3,4 3 stars, 1 3.5 star, no 4 stars

That's a very significant down to almost PAUL WULF recruiting level, all due to NIL.

WSU, fans will go from "Hey awesome, got a 4 star, 5 star"

To

"Hey awesome, WSU got a 3.5 star(CUSP, Borderline BETWEEN 3,4 stars(4 stars by some rankers, 3 stars by other rankers), and a 3 star. Woah that's awesome, rare, uncommon."

 

[mikalalas]

WSU, fans will go from "Hey awesome, got a 4 star, 5 star"

To

"Hey awesome, WSU got a 3.5 star(CUSP, Borderline BETWEEN 3,4 stars(4 stars by some rankers, 3 stars by other rankers), and a 3 star. Woah that's awesome, rare, uncommon."

Another thing is that because of money being more important to kids, recruits, and how because of Social Media, advertising culture, athlete hero worship, etc, kid, recruits today would have NIL opportunities today, that wouldn't have had back then, and would get more money now, then back then, and kids are more likely now to say yes to that, then they would have back then.

Different culture, values, etc, then back then.

Back then some would say no

But now, most would say yes, because the money, etc, means more to them now, then back then

Also things, because of inflation, are more expensive. Inflation, living expenses, is ahead of money received from jobs, athletic schollies, etc, way more now, then back then.

College students, including Student athletes, have to live on bread crumbs, scrounge, etc, just to live, get by now, more so now, then back then.

Because of all the above, etc, today's kids, recruits are more likely to only think about the NIL money, say yes to the NIL money, instead of saying no to the NIL money by going to a different college, now, then back then

 

[mikalalas]

Another thing is that because of money being more important to kids, recruits, and how because of Social Media, advertising culture, athlete hero worship, etc, kid, recruits today would have NIL opportunities today, that wouldn't have had back then, and would get more money now, then back then, and kids are more likely now to say yes to that, then they would have back then.

Different culture, values, etc, then back then.

Back then some would say no

But now, most would say yes, because the money, etc, means more to them now, then back then

Also things, because of inflation, are more expensive. Inflation, living expenses, is ahead of money received from jobs, athletic schollies, etc, way more now, then back then.

College students, including Student athletes, have to live on bread crumbs, scrounge, etc, just to live, get by now, more so now, then back then.

Because of all the above, etc, today's kids, recruits are more likely to only think about the NIL money, say yes to the NIL money, instead of saying no to the NIL money by going to a different college, now, then back then

And the 25 recruiting class limits, and 85 schollly limits, and 100 roster size limits, are not going to make a big difference because:

Alabama types under NIL, can fill their 25 man classes with ALL 4, 4 stars, 5 stars, and same with 85 schollies, etc

Pre NIL even Alabama types got the occasional 2.5 star, 3 star, 3.5 stars, and a couple, few, some 4,5 stars go to non Alabama type places like WSU types, etc.

POST NIL, that's not going to happen. Alabama types will VACUUM CLEANER up every last 4,5 stars because of NIL

4,5 stars won't go to a WSU over a Alabama, like Bledsoe went to WSU.

Nope the Alabama's will get ALL the BLEDSOES.

NONE WILL FALL THRU THE CRACKS, ESCAPE, NOT GOTO ALABAMA TYPES..

schollly limits, class size limits won't prevent, stop that.

All that will happen is that instead of 60 4,5 stars, 20 2.5, 3, stars, on the 85 schollly, and 20 4,5 star, 3, 3 stars on the recruiting class, it's going to goto 85 3.5,4,5 star, and 25, 3.5,4,5 stars.

And WSU types will go from 60 2,2.5,3 stars, 20 3.5, 5, 4 stars to 60 NR, 2,2.5 stars, 20 3 stars, 5 3.5 stars, no 4 stars, and 20 NR, 2, 2.5 stars, 5 3 stars, 3.5 stars.

Schollly limits, class size limits won't stop that, won't change anything.

Only thing that will change is the composition of the rosters, schollies, classes, within the limits, to where the Alabama types, haves get better, and have littles or have nots get even worse.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Bledsoe’s probably not your best example here. Considering he was the #1 pick and played over a decade in the NFL it’s easy to say in hindsight if he had the chance to leave WSU and go somewhere else to sell Polaroid cameras or be the spokesperson for Radio Shack it might not have been a wise decision. Would he have? Who knows, I’m not gonna say for certain he would though and you don’t know that either!

Plus the fact that Drew Bledsoe was incredibly excited about playing for Mike Price at WSU and turned down plenty of offers at the time.

 

[Coug90]

Plus the fact that Drew Bledsoe was incredibly excited about playing for Mike Price at WSU and turned down plenty of offers at the time.

Yup. Not going to respond to Mik’s multiple post word and number salad. Saying that every big time recruit is going to go where the best marketing opportunities are is just plain stupid when the NFLs top players make $20 mill a year (QBs $50). If you believe the NFL is in your future, if you’re smart you’ll choose the school that you feel will best showcase your talents to help you get there…$50K is nothing when you’ve potentially got millions in your future. Will some guys get caught up in the short term $ opportunities? Sure, but there’s plenty who will be more concerned with the long term. Drew got drafted #1. He maximized what he could do in college for his future.

 

[425cougfan]

It's not going to be as simple as all recruits going where the best marketing opportunities are, but all the attempts at rationalization miss the mark as well, IMO, and are overly simplistic. The best marketing opportunities generally will correlate with programs that have more money (which means better facilities, coaches, exposure, history of getting players to the NFL, better location, better gear and uniforms, cooler to tell your friends about, etc.), and who otherwise can sell the recruit on the opportunity (with scheme, fit, etc.), just as it is now but even slightly worse due to the NIL implications, with some schools -- likely G of 5s with money or in good locations -- to punch above their historical weight by leveraging NIL. The recruit isn't necessarily going to choose making $50k a year at Tennessee over an offer at Bama, but that's mainly because Bama will come up with money when it needs to as well, and some will, in fact, take the $.

People also aren't considering the second-order effects like coaches with other options being even less likely to stick around at schools who have disadvantageous recruiting situations than they were before, with NIL being another headwind for schools like WSU.

The "only 25 scholies a year" thing doesn't hold water. By that logic, it might as well just be a complete free-for-all since the other schools can only get 25 kids better than yours every year. There are 95% or more of P5 programs positioned better than WSU with those 25 scholies to give every year, and now more G5s being greater competition.

The Drew example doesn't demonstrate anything either way. That era is largely irrelevant to today, even leaving aside the portal and NIL. Today's Drew would be highly unlikely to go to WSU. Also, the NFL is even more based on measurables and how athletes project than in the past. The fact WSU had a #1 overall draft pick 30 years ago doesn't mean anything. Wyoming had Josh Allen. Doesn't mean any recruit is going to choose Wyoming if he has other options. Also doesn't mean the fact a great athlete was at a disadvantaged school is more than an aberration.

OK, so that all sounds pretty horrible. Let me close by noting that a lot of this is uncertain in how it will play out. I'm not calling for apocalyptic impacts or ruin, necessarily. Maybe this really will be limited. I hope it is. I don't see any logical bases for NIL to be anything less than additional straws put on the camel's back, though, and perhaps more.

 

[M-I-Coug]

Have you thought about this?
.
Players simply are not recipients of VIP Club Seat tickets.
.
Sure, they receive some General Admission comp tickets for friends and family, but that's it.
That said, let's take Coca-Cola ™ for example. The local Coca-Cola ™ distributorship in Whitman County, like clockwork, every year, invests and buys "donor seats, or VIP Club Level Seats" to basically give away to clients.
.
Wining and dining is the oldest smoozing thing in sales, right?
.
Fact: My buddy runs the Chevron and convenient store on Bishop. His company owns other gas stations and convenient stores in the area. Every year, as a Coke ™ client, he receives comp VIP tickets from his Coca-Cola ™ rep, which include the food and beverages in the big tent. Wine and Dine.
.
What's my point?
.
I don't see Coca-Cola ™ , Budweiser ™ , Chipman & Taylor Chevrolet, or Schweitzer Engineering sacrificing their Club Seats, (which they use to give to clients)....by cancelling their CAF in order to support a 20 year athlete on Social Media.
.
Don't see that happening.

 

[Coug4life34]

Drew Bledsoe's NFL is irrelevant to the point.

The point is he was a FIVE STAR, NUMBER 1 HS QB IN ENTIRE NATION COMING OUT OF HIGHSCHOOL, and maybe even probably #1 HS recruit in nation coming out of HS ON PAPER.

That type of recruit, whether they are Sam, Fred, Joe, Bob, etc, whether they got, went to WSU like Bledsoe or somewhere else, that type of recruit can easily get, command, be worth $50k, to $100k, to $150k, at the right college, before even touching a field, in practice, game, etc.

Those type of players won't goto WSU because of NIL. They are not going to TURN DOWN that kind of NIL money to goto WSU.

Some make the point that those type of players don't goto WSU period, NIL or No Nil.

Bledsoe is proof that those type of players do goto WSU pre NIL.

And it's not just those 5 star types.

4 stars can easily get about $17k to $43k to $73k at the right college.

Those 4 stars are not going to turn down that kind of money to play at WSU.

Remember this is not the ILLEGAL, WRONG, IMMORAL, RULE BREAKING money of the 80's. Some will turn that kind of money down.

This NIL money is LEGIT, LEGAL, WITHIN THE RULES, MORAL, ETC. MOST of these type of players are not going to turn that kind of big time LEGIT money down.

WSU gets about 1,2,3 of these type of 4 stars per class of 25 on average.(PRE NIL).

That's going to change POST NIL to maybe getting 1 4 star every about 3 to 10 years because 1 4 star did strangely say no to the NIL money.

That's a significant decrease to go from 1,2,3 4 stars per year to 1 4 star per 3 to 10 years, all due to NIL.

Then there are the HIGH ended 3 stars, or those on the border, CUSP of being a 3 star or 4 star, where some recruit ranking services say they are a 4 star, and some say they are a 3 star.

Those types are 3.5 star players.

WSU gets a LOT of those. About 3,4,5 per class of 25 per year.

3.5 stars can get about $10k to $20k to $30k in NIL money at the right college.

They are not going to say no to that kind of money to goto wSU.

WSU is going to go from 6 3.5 stars a year to 1 3.5 star every 1,2,3,4 years, which would be a significant decrease

It pains me to see You arguing points about what people would do that you have no clue about who they are and even less about what decision they would make.. I am in the corner of very little impact on recruiting of players straight outta Higher School for WSU. I do however understand your passion… You arguments read however like you have some insider information and the rest of us are bafoons for disagreeing.. Truth is that nobody really knows what the next few years will bring..
Have you ever been involved in the recruiting process at any level, from any side?? Not a slight just wondering if you really understand how it works..

 

[95coug]

Mk

I also don't think we will see a huge migration of WSU top football talent head to other schools because they can provided them with more money through NIL deals. What is a guaranteed starting role at a P5 team worth? Would one transfer to compete for a starting position for $6000? $10,000? $20,000? Maybe someone with a young family with little financial support or some simular situation, but I would think it would also need to be a combination of the new schools proximity to family, a better team fit/scheme, a higher profile school and the individuals belief that he would be a starter at the new schoool, that would be as big if not a bigger deciding factor to changing school. For most athletes anyway.
How i see it hurting our recruiting the most is with incoming transfers. Such as WSU and Houston offers the same transfer, but Houston can land the recruit $10,000 in NIL money.

Slightly different angle here…
Does James Williams stay for his senior year if he could have pulled down some NIL money? Obviously there’s a question of just how much, but I think he’s potentially one of those cases who could have been retained if there was a chance he could bring home some rent money while still in school and playing ball.

 

[triscuit one]

I agree and maybe we could match what others might be throwing his way. But if a Cali school could offer double or triple NIL deals then we could muster does he leave?

 

[roses04]

How much money does Poulsbo RV have? Whatever they are paying Walden is too much.

 

[425cougfan]

I agree and maybe we could match what others might be throwing his way. But if a Cali school could offer double or triple NIL deals then we could muster does he leave?

Good point. Have to consider that we now have immediate eligibility for intraconference transfers, too.

 

[Coug90]

How much money does Poulsbo RV have? Whatever they are paying Walden is too much.

I suppose they could let a player stay in an RV for 4 years and pocket their living expenses. That’s probably the deal they have with Walden.

 

[triscuit one]

It's not going to be as simple as all recruits going where the best marketing opportunities are, but all the attempts at rationalization miss the mark as well, IMO, and are overly simplistic. The best marketing opportunities generally will correlate with programs that have more money (which means better facilities, coaches, exposure, history of getting players to the NFL, better location, better gear and uniforms, cooler to tell your friends about, etc.), and who otherwise can sell the recruit on the opportunity (with scheme, fit, etc.), just as it is now but even slightly worse due to the NIL implications, with some schools -- likely G of 5s with money or in good locations -- to punch above their historical weight by leveraging NIL. The recruit isn't necessarily going to choose making $50k a year at Tennessee over an offer at Bama, but that's mainly because Bama will come up with money when it needs to as well, and some will, in fact, take the $.

People also aren't considering the second-order effects like coaches with other options being even less likely to stick around at schools who have disadvantageous recruiting situations than they were before, with NIL being another headwind for schools like WSU.

The "only 25 scholies a year" thing doesn't hold water. By that logic, it might as well just be a complete free-for-all since the other schools can only get 25 kids better than yours every year. There are 95% or more of P5 programs positioned better than WSU with those 25 scholies to give every year, and now more G5s being greater competition.

The Drew example doesn't demonstrate anything either way. That era is largely irrelevant to today, even leaving aside the portal and NIL. Today's Drew would be highly unlikely to go to WSU. Also, the NFL is even more based on measurables and how athletes project than in the past. The fact WSU had a #1 overall draft pick 30 years ago doesn't mean anything. Wyoming had Josh Allen. Doesn't mean any recruit is going to choose Wyoming if he has other options. Also doesn't mean the fact a great athlete was at a disadvantaged school is more than an aberration.

OK, so that all sounds pretty horrible. Let me close by noting that a lot of this is uncertain in how it will play out. I'm not calling for apocalyptic impacts or ruin, necessarily. Maybe this really will be limited. I hope it is. I don't see any logical bases for NIL to be anything less than additional straws put on the camel's back, though, and perhaps more.

I agree with much of what you are saying just we may disagree slightly on the impact. Typically, our recruiting classes are ranked some place above 50 and below 100 nationally. As I see it the NIL might put our best classes around 60 with the possibility of us losing a high school recruit or two to a SDSU, Houston, etc. increasing along with decreasing our chances of landing a 4-star recruit in a class. That being said most of our “stars” are more of the diamonds in the ruff / developmental players with the occasional transfer with baggage who we happen to be the best offer. I think we still get those players even with NIL.

I do think it will play a roll in keeping coaches just like several things they are already dealing with (location, no charter flights, extremely small local talent pool, etc.) To what extent I have no idea, but it was already difficult being a Cougar coach. Maybe that means they have think skin or maybe this will be the proverbial straw.

On Bledsoe, why do you think he would have turned down WSU if he was a recruit today? Is it because you believe today’s kids are more me / prestige focused? Do you think the NIL plays into it?

 

[425cougfan]

I agree with much of what you are saying just we may disagree slightly on the impact. Typically, our recruiting classes are ranked some place above 50 and below 100 nationally. As I see it the NIL might put our best classes around 60 with the possibility of us losing a high school recruit or two to a SDSU, Houston, etc. increasing along with decreasing our chances of landing a 4-star recruit in a class. That being said most of our “stars” are more of the diamonds in the ruff / developmental players with the occasional transfer with baggage who we happen to be the best offer. I think we still get those players even with NIL.

I do think it will play a roll in keeping coaches just like several things they are already dealing with (location, no charter flights, extremely small local talent pool, etc.) To what extent I have no idea, but it was already difficult being a Cougar coach. Maybe that means they have think skin or maybe this will be the proverbial straw.

On Bledsoe, why do you think he would have turned down WSU if he was a recruit today? Is it because you believe today’s kids are more me / prestige focused? Do you think the NIL plays into it?

I think we have similar views on the impact, but mainly because it already was a low floor. My concern is effectively capping the ceiling while decreasing the likelihood of approaching it, stacking even more things working against WSU.

We already nearly always recruit in the lowest quartile of the Pac-12, usually somewhere around what you're framing as the lower end of that 50th - 100th place band. There are 65 P5 schools, counting Notre Dame. We're usually in the 50th - 60th range. It's not like this is going to take us to 75th or something, but even increasing the likelihood of us being more like 65th instead of, say, 45th, where we could get with a good staff that manages to stay together for a little bit, is pretty massive, especially over a few classes.

I'm concerned any attempt to explain it fully will be too long and convoluted. To summarize, it's a ton of impacts on the choices of individuals (recruits, players, head coaches, and assistants) that all stack, when it already was very hard for things to "go right" and allow WSU to do anything meaningful. The examples of star players going to Bama or Oregon to get big endorsement deals don't get at the point. It's not about that. It's about it being harder to beat out, say, Colorado or ASU, much less UW, and to hang onto those players, than it already was. It's also not just about a particular recruit we lose because he wanted a $10k/year endorsement deal in Dallas so he stayed in Texas and went to SMU. It's about not getting that recruit, and also not getting the guy we already wouldn't get who instead chooses ASU (in part due to NIL), and not getting three or four other players every year, and losing a couple key players in the portal, the foregoing which make it all the harder to keep assistants, and which, along with myriad other factors, makes WSU win fewer games, which impacts whether we bowl, whether we can ever win an Apple Cup, and various other things, all of which feed on each other. These all further lower the floor and make it incredibly unlikely that we see anything like an 11-2 Alamo Bowl champ, much less a "legit" conference contender, again. Not impossible but it makes the odds get even longer.

I likely just muddled things further by attempting to keep it short, but basically, all of these things that when viewed in isolation, can be dismissed as "not mattering," really do, especially in the aggregate and when their impacts build on each other both contemporaneously and with respect to WSU's ability to recruit and keep talent, and keep together a good coaching staff, in the future. It's more of the same but just more cards being stacked in the deck. Someone may say it "doesn't matter" to have classes in the 60s instead of the 50s, but it already was hard as hell to do anything with classes in the 50s with a shot at getting in the 40s.

It isn't changing, but by no means does this not matter, nor is it a good thing. At best it's only marginally harmful when things already were hard.

As for Drew, again, I'll try to just keep it really short. The times just have changed. More money (in the NFL and in endorsements, even if we leave aside NIL: today's Bledsoe wasn't coming to WSU a few years ago, either), more data, more numbers, more information about rates of getting players to the NFL, players caring more about academics and life after football, social media, recruiting rankings, hype, and tons of other stuff I could write pages about.

 

[triscuit one]

Lol got it. Snow ball effect and times have changed. Good points.

 

[mikalalas]

The Star ranking system, of what players star rank is, is better then going by Class Ranking.

Example:

Star Ranking:

WSU Class of 25 players:

1,2,3,4 NR(Not Rated), 3,4,5,6 TWO, 2 Stars, 4 to 7 to 10 to 13, THREE, 3 Stars, 2,3,4,5, 3.5 Stars, 1,2, FOUR Stars.

That means more then saying 65th rated class.

Lets take Kyle Smith's Top 30 class, as a example.

That class was one upped by Oregon, USC, UCLA, ASU. Arizona, Colorado, all of which either had a higher rated class or more 4,5 stars, then WSU's Top 30 rated class.

Now if didnt look at the 4 stars in that WSU Class, and didnt look at the rating, one could say "That WSU 7th,8th rated in Pac 12 recruiting class was in the bottom half of the Pac 12 AGAIN, and so probably isnt that good AGAIN.

A better measure of that WSU/Smith's recruiting class would be to say instead of saying Top 30 or 8th in Pac 12, instead say:

1 3 star, 1 3.5 star, 2,3 4 stars.

That is the better measurement for WSU at least.

Saying 60th rated class is not much more worse off then 50th, 55th, is not a good measurement.

Why? Because the 50th rated class could have a breakdown like:

1 to 4 NR, 4 to 7 2 stars, 6 to 11 3 stars, 1 to 4 3.5 stars, 1,2 4 stars.

While the 63rd rated class:

3 to 6 NR, 5 to 10 2 stars. 7 to 14 3 stars, no 3.5 stars, No 4 stars.

The difference? A significant decrease in 3 stars, 3.5 stars, 4 stars.

Thats a big difference between 50th, and 63rd in that type of example.

The problem as 425 said.

That if you go from:


1 to 4 NR, 3 to 6 2 stars, 5 to 10 3 stars, 2 to 5, 3.5 stars, 1,2,3 4 stars

Down to


3 to 7 NR, 4 to 7 2 stars, 7 to 14 3 stars, 1 3.5 star, no 4 stars,

BECAUSE OF NIL

thats a big significant decrease because of the snowball effect that 425 described, the AMALGAMATION, COMBINATION of LOT's of factors(NOT JUST NIL), with NIL, like Transfer Portal, etc.

Saying that NIL is only going to cause about a 3 to 13 place decrease from 50th rated class at best, to a 63rd class at worst, is not as telling as saying how many 3 stars, 3.5 stars, 4 stars that lose because of NIL.


WSU is going lose 3 stars, 3.5 stars, 4 stars to NIL, enough to cause the snowball effect that 425 mentioned.

 

[triscuit one]

Out of our current player who do you think we would not have signed if the NIL decision was a done deal when they signed? Who do you think we are going to loose because of NIL and transfer portal?

 

[Coug90]

So, kind of off topic but not really. Didn’t WSU basketball just sign pretty much it’s best class ever, and get a top 300 kid that had offers from Zona and such? This may have become official recently, but it’s been careening in this direction for a while now. Enough for recruits to at least be thinking about the possibility they could be in line to make some money in college. Didn’t effect basketball recruiting negatively.

 

[mikalalas]

Out of our current player who do you think we would not have signed if the NIL decision was a done deal when they signed? Who do you think we are going to loose because of NIL and transfer portal?

For the next 1 to 4 years NIL is not going to be at full effect. Its going to take about 2,3,4,5 years for NIL to be at MAX, ULTIMATE effect.

Also its really hard to go by Rolo. A better measure would be Leach, because Leach got just as many, if not more 3.5 stars, 4 stars as Erickson, Price.

Cammon Cooper, and JDL, both 4 star Top 15 QB's coming out of HS, probably would not have signed with WSU Post NIL, 5 years from now with a MAX NIL effect.

Tho not on the roster anymore 4 star Jamire Calvin, and 4 star Gabe Marks under Leach would not goto WSU under a MAX NIL effect.

3.5 star Borghi, and 3.5 star James Williams, especially not James Williams, would not goto WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

3.5 star Borghi came close, almost chose Stanford and Colorado, who made his top 3, with WSU. He would not have chosen WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

About a 73% chance per each of these players that they probably would not have chosen WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

And out of the 5 to 7, 3.5 star to 4 star players, about 2,3,4 of them would have not chosen WSU at minimum under NIL.

That would have been enough to have caused Leach to not have all the success he had at WSU.

Its a big difference.

As to who would transfer. 4 star Jamire Calvin already transfered, without NIL. So did 3.5 star Tay Martin, without NIL.

You throw in NIL, and that happens more often

Renard Bell, and Travell Harris, also 3.5 stars, could easily say no to WSU, or Transfer Under a MAX NIL effect.

 

[etowncoug]

Out of our current player who do you think we would not have signed if the NIL decision was a done deal when they signed? Who do you think we are going to loose because of NIL and transfer portal?

Max Borghi comes to mind. Dude has always been marketable as evidenced by his high school hurdle.

 

[mikalalas]

So, kind of off topic but not really. Didn’t WSU basketball just sign pretty much it’s best class ever, and get a top 300 kid that had offers from Zona and such? This may have become official recently, but it’s been careening in this direction for a while now. Enough for recruits to at least be thinking about the possibility they could be in line to make some money in college. Didn’t effect basketball recruiting negatively.

1. Its going to take 2 to 5 years for NIL to reach MAX ULTIMATE effect.

2. That was about 1.5 years BEFORE NIL. which means that back then it was 6.5 years BEFORE MAX NIL effect

3. Roster sizes vs available player pool. Its easier to recruit in Basketball vs Football.

4. Smith in just 3 years has built WSU into a NCAA Tourny team that should make it to the NIT/NCAA, 3,4,5 years in a row, and should continue to have Top 30 classes for the next 5 to 10 years for as long as at WSU.

5. The above is about MOMENTUM, TRENDS, HISTORY, etc.

By the time NIL takes full max effect, Smith, WSU Bball is, will be known as a BBall college with a Reputation.

As such NIL wont be the nail in the coffin, straw that breaks the camel's back.

But in football, its different.

Harder to recruit.

And unless Rolo can go 9-3, 10-3, the next 2,3 seasons and goto a NY6 Bowl, which would be comparable to Smith winning about 18 to 23 games, 4th, 5th, 6th in conference, NCAA, NIT tourny.

Unless Rolo does that within the about next 1,2,3 years, NIL will probably be the straw, nail in the coffin, camel's back for WSU football after the next 4 to 7 years, because of NIL

 

[triscuit one]

Max Borghi comes to mind. Dude has always been marketable as evidenced by his high school hurdle.

I was thinking Max as a transfer. If I remember right before his injury he wanted to go to Stanford and be the next McCaffery, but his injury scared away alot of teams. WSU was his biggest offer (for what we knew) until a late offer from Colorado came in. Stanford showed interest late, but don't remembered If they offered. Maybe NIL deals to Colorado makes him a buff, but he didn't have a lot of big offers despite his ability due to injury and WSU was on him for a while.

 

[triscuit one]

1. Its going to take 2 to 5 years for NIL to reach MAX ULTIMATE effect.

2. That was about 1.5 years BEFORE NIL. which means that back then it was 6.5 years BEFORE MAX NIL effect

3. Roster sizes vs available player pool. Its easier to recruit in Basketball vs Football.

4. Smith in just 3 years has built WSU into a NCAA Tourny team that should make it to the NIT/NCAA, 3,4,5 years in a row, and should continue to have Top 30 classes for the next 5 to 10 years for as long as at WSU.

5. The above is about MOMENTUM, TRENDS, HISTORY, etc.

By the time NIL takes full max effect, Smith, WSU Bball is, will be known as a BBall college with a Reputation.

As such NIL wont be the nail in the coffin, straw that breaks the camel's back.

But in football, its different.

Harder to recruit.

And unless Rolo can go 9-3, 10-3, the next 2,3 seasons and goto a NY6 Bowl, which would be comparable to Smith winning about 18 to 23 games, 4th, 5th, 6th in conference, NCAA, NIT tourny.

Unless Rolo does that within the about next 1,2,3 years, NIL will probably be the straw, nail in the coffin, camel's back for WSU football after the next 4 to 7 years,

I am personally more worried about NIL deals affecting basketball then I am football.

 

[425cougfan]

I still don't think the issue really is asking which one of our players is a major star who might have gone somewhere else due to NIL, or looking at Smith's ability to put together a good class despite the likelihood of NIL (which is an interesting point).

Instead, it seems like the smart play for boosters is to take this where they did almost immediately at Miami -- broad-based schemes that pay everyone, or at least everyone in the 2-deeps or a similarly large enough group of players to impact recruiting for the school generally. Then the question isn't just whether a few rare players like Borghi get a deal to be on a billboard. It's about everyone getting paid and, most importantly, recruits and potential transfers knowing everyone gets paid.

E.g., WSU had almost $28m in giving to the CAF in the 2019/20 cycle. Some of that is planned giving, corporate donations, seatbacks, and similar stuff. Let's be conservative and say 75% of that is stuff that has no chance of being dedicated elsewhere. So that's still $7m in "discretionary" donations in this example, most of which I'm going to go out on a limb and assert is from people who care a great deal whether the football program is good. Let's again be very conservative and say almost all those donors are old-school or otherwise unwilling to screw around with anything unusual, so 90% of that remaining 25% is still donated to the CAF.

But isn't it possible that this 1/10 of the 1/4 of giving to the CAF -- i.e., 2.5% of the $28m, or $700k a year--- could instead just go to a fund that pays 85 scholie football players about $8200 per year to be on a billboard on Stadium Way? As I've written about, this potentially could have tax benefits for business donors, especially.

You already know where I'm going with this ... if this is what 2.5% of our donations could do, with the actual numbers likely to be much larger even at WSU, what could donors do at our competitors and at football-mad schools everywhere south and east of Pullman in the U.S.? Why wouldn't megadonors donating $10m, for example, dedicate, say, $2m of that to a player payment slush fund, in addition to what other alumni might do at that school? That's what really concerns me, not some one-off question like whether one player might have gone somewhere else to make $5k a year to be on some car dealership ad or some other piddly stuff like that. Even if one doesn't buy that this will result in schools coming up with broad-based payment schemes like paying all scholie players--even though Miami boosters already are doing it and providing a template--this seems almost certain to result in schemes broad-based enough at many schools to greatly impact recruiting, more than just with respect to players who believe they are marketable and going to be stars at skill positions.

Maybe none of this pans out but I think it easily could get a lot bigger than that and do so quickly. Why have my $10k going to the school's athletic department just get my name in a program and otherwise basically be irrelevant when it instead could go in a fund that brings actual difference-making talent to my school directly? That's what I really want as a donor. For every WSU donor who feels like this, there are more at every single school we compete against, and many of them are willing to shell out more--much more--on a per-donor basis, too. And that's without getting into the hindrances of WSU's location on what one might call "natural" NIL activity.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

What's interesting is that it seems like so much of the discussion about the NIL is based on corporate "fans" that are going to use their money to sway players to certain schools.

It's important to remember that the intent of NIL (and most advertising money) is to bring attention to their brand without concern for the school/team that an athlete represents. For all this talk about San Diego State, Houston, or SMU stealing our players, the reality is that every single Pac-12 football game is available nationally. Larry Scott fumblefugged that as much as he could and we don't have the reach of the B1G or SEC...but still, people watch Pac-12 games. MWC, Sun Belt and other G5 teams don't get the TV exposure that we have the opportunity to get.

We are still at a disadvantage compared to our peers, but I think that as things shake out, it won't be as bad as people suggest. We'll still be fighting with one hand behind our back against our peers, but I'm not going to lose sleep over Fresno State and SDSU.

 

[triscuit one]

Good point. If your concerns come to fruition and if WSU has the lowest "minimum wage" in what will most likely be the land of low minimum wages (Pac 12/west coast) we could be in a world of hurt.

 

[BiggsCoug]

For the next 1 to 4 years NIL is not going to be at full effect. Its going to take about 2,3,4,5 years for NIL to be at MAX, ULTIMATE effect.

Also its really hard to go by Rolo. A better measure would be Leach, because Leach got just as many, if not more 3.5 stars, 4 stars as Erickson, Price.

Cammon Cooper, and JDL, both 4 star Top 15 QB's coming out of HS, probably would not have signed with WSU Post NIL, 5 years from now with a MAX NIL effect.

Tho not on the roster anymore 4 star Jamire Calvin, and 4 star Gabe Marks under Leach would not goto WSU under a MAX NIL effect.

3.5 star Borghi, and 3.5 star James Williams, especially not James Williams, would not goto WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

3.5 star Borghi came close, almost chose Stanford and Colorado, who made his top 3, with WSU. He would not have chosen WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

About a 73% chance per each of these players that they probably would not have chosen WSU with a MAX NIL effect.

And out of the 5 to 7, 3.5 star to 4 star players, about 2,3,4 of them would have not chosen WSU at minimum under NIL.

That would have been enough to have caused Leach to not have all the success he had at WSU.

Its a big difference.

As to who would transfer. 4 star Jamire Calvin already transfered, without NIL. So did 3.5 star Tay Martin, without NIL.

You throw in NIL, and that happens more often

Renard Bell, and Travell Harris, also 3.5 stars, could easily say no to WSU, or Transfer Under a MAX NIL effect.

Travelle Harris was a 2 star kid. Your made up star system is ridiculous. You dont know what you’re talking about.

 

[etowncoug]

I was thinking Max as a transfer. If I remember right before his injury he wanted to go to Stanford and be the next McCaffery, but his injury scared away alot of teams. WSU was his biggest offer (for what we knew) until a late offer from Colorado came in. Stanford showed interest late, but don't remembered If they offered. Maybe NIL deals to Colorado makes him a buff, but he didn't have a lot of big offers despite his ability due to injury and WSU was on him for a while.

Borghi had a pretty good offer sheet. Colorado, Cal, Arizona (with Rich Rod), Kansas St, and Utah had all offered. North Carolina and Stanford came in late and Borghi delayed signing his NIL to think things over. He ended up signing with us the last day of the early signing period so it's easy to forget how scary that was for two days.

Question becomes, do we hang onto him if Stanford boosters are able to legally inquire of his interest in a NIL deal... kick around some impressive dollar figures... and imply it's only on the table if he goes to the 'Furd.

Corporate dollars will stay directed at Universities for the most part because they are paying for the brand. But anyone with money can form a simple LLC for a venture they don't care about and doesn't cost them anything and pay players to "advertise" the product. The in a legal sense businesses don't need to make money. If you don't think deep pocketed boosters won't do this stuff to assemble a team of stud players... you are naive.

 

[triscuit one]

Borghi had a pretty good offer sheet. Colorado, Cal, Arizona (with Rich Rod), Kansas St, and Utah had all offered. North Carolina and Stanford came in late and Borghi delayed signing his NIL to think things over. He ended up signing with us the last day of the early signing period so it's easy to forget how scary that was for two days.

Question becomes, do we hang onto him if Stanford boosters are able to legally inquire of his interest in a NIL deal... kick around some impressive dollar figures... and imply it's only on the table if he goes to the 'Furd.

Corporate dollars will stay directed at Universities for the most part because they are paying for the brand. But anyone with money can form a simple LLC for a venture they don't care about and doesn't cost them anything and pay players to "advertise" the product. The in a legal sense businesses don't need to make money. If you don't think deep pocketed boosters won't do this stuff to assemble a team of stud players... you are naive.

Don't doubt it will happen. Just taking a wait and see approach before I declare the sky is falling is all.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Don't doubt it will happen. Just taking a wait and see approach before I declare the sky is falling is all.

Waiting and watching will be the end of WSU. Either get in game or get left behind. WSU cannot afford to watch 2+ seasons go by, do nothing or do the bare minimum and expect to be competitive. Of all schools, WSU is in no position to watch any amount of classes go by getting beat by schools they would usually have no issues with. The drain of talent would be 4-5 years if they sit out 2 seasons of not having NIL deals.

 

[Coug90]

Borghi had a pretty good offer sheet. Colorado, Cal, Arizona (with Rich Rod), Kansas St, and Utah had all offered. North Carolina and Stanford came in late and Borghi delayed signing his NIL to think things over. He ended up signing with us the last day of the early signing period so it's easy to forget how scary that was for two days.

Question becomes, do we hang onto him if Stanford boosters are able to legally inquire of his interest in a NIL deal... kick around some impressive dollar figures... and imply it's only on the table if he goes to the 'Furd.

Corporate dollars will stay directed at Universities for the most part because they are paying for the brand. But anyone with money can form a simple LLC for a venture they don't care about and doesn't cost them anything and pay players to "advertise" the product. The in a legal sense businesses don't need to make money. If you don't think deep pocketed boosters won't do this stuff to assemble a team of stud players... you are naive.

Great points. Even deep pocketed boosters won’t piss money away though. Most of them probably didn’t get deep pockets by pissing money away. So the question becomes what is the level of talent necessary for boosters to throw cash at a kid who hasn’t taken a college snap. I’m not sure we ever really have the type of recruits that are gonna fit that category. Bledsoe? Sure. High School Travell Harris or Jahad Woods? Doubtful. Borghi was a great HS back and one of the higher rated recruits we could expect to land but even he probably would have been borderline for having something lined up out of HS.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Great points. Even deep pocketed boosters won’t piss money away though. Most of them probably didn’t get deep pockets by pissing money away. So the question becomes what is the level of talent necessary for boosters to throw cash at a kid who hasn’t taken a college snap. I’m not sure we ever really have the type of recruits that are gonna fit that category. Bledsoe? Sure. High School Travell Harris or Jahad Woods? Doubtful. Borghi was a great HS back and one of the higher rated recruits we could expect to land but even he probably would have been borderline for having something lined up out of HS.

Consider teams reaching. MB may not have been a guy lined up for big P5 deals…. what about G5 schools in larger metro areas?

If the scenario is…. offered nothing to play at WSU or offered something to stay in state and play for Colorado State, what do kids do??? Close to home, cash in hand, full scholarship, playing for a team that beat WSU. What is a kid going to do?

It will likely be SDSU, FSU, UNLV, Reno and SJSU that could put a dent in the Pac 12 schools that dont pay.

 

[M-I-Coug]

Nobody responded to my post above, so I'll wash, rinse and repeat.

Regarding the corporate advertising budgets:
I don't see Coca-Cola ™ , Budweiser ™ , Chipman & Taylor Chevrolet, or Schweitzer Engineering sacrificing their ego VIP Club Seats, (which they use to graciously give and comp to clients)... cancel their CAF in order to support a 20 year athlete on Social Media.

Not going to happen. Our student athletes do not have access to Club level Seats with wine and dine VIP access. Major sponsors will always need EGO tickets with food & drinks, (wine and dine under the tents) to give to their clients.

So, it's simple. I don't see CAF taking a dive in corporate sponsored revenue.

It's not the end of the world.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Nobody responded to my post above, so I'll wash, rinse and repeat.
.

Regarding the corporate advertising budgets:
I don't see Coca-Cola ™ , Budweiser ™ , Chipman & Taylor Chevrolet, or Schweitzer Engineering sacrificing their Club Seats, (which they use to graciously give and comp to clients)... cancel their CAF in order to support a 20 year athlete on Social Media.

Not going to happen. Our student athletes do not have access to Club level Seats. Major sponsors will always need EGO tickets with food & drinks, (wine and dine under the tents) to give to their clients.

So, it's simple. I don't see CAF taking a dive in corporate sponsored revenue. It's not the end of the world.

Depends on the $$$. How many followers does a kid have on campus? How can they use their platform (fb, ig, twit) to generate revenue dollars? There are people and Coke and Budweiser that spend all day every day thinking of ways to partner with those that can make them $$$.

What happens when marijuana businesses want to advertise and sponsor??? All cash bay bee!!!

 

[triscuit one]

Waiting and watching will be the end of WSU. Either get in game or get left behind. WSU cannot afford to watch 2+ seasons go by, do nothing or do the bare minimum and expect to be competitive. Of all schools, WSU is in no position to watch any amount of classes go by getting beat by schools they would usually have no issues with. The drain of talent would be 4-5 years if they sit out 2 seasons of not having NIL deals.

Well I am fan not part of the athletic department soooo I am sure it won’t be the end of WSU if I take a wait a see approach before I freak out. But who knowns maybe I have more power then I think? I could see if I could do some NIL deal. My wife has been bugging me to sell some of my “junk” and it might help to have a player promote my garage sale on twitter.

Seems like the Chun has taken some steps to "get in the game". Looks like we need some bigger players then me to step up to the plate and get this NIL thing going. Or maybe someone here can form a simple LLC and we can all chip in.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Well I am fan not part of the athletic department soooo I am sure it won’t be the end of WSU if I take a wait a see approach before I freak out. But who knowns maybe I have more power then I think? I could see if I could do some NIL deal. My wife has been bugging me to sell some of my “junk” and it might help to have a player promote my garage sale on twitter.

Seems like the Chun has taken some steps to "get in the game". Looks like we need some bigger players then me to step up to the plate and get this NIL thing going. Or maybe someone here can form a simple LLC and we can all chip in.

Here’s the thing…. NIL isnt a surprise. There are schools that have been planning for this for 2 years. Specifically, the U of Texas. I lived in Austin and heard the sports talk radio guys talking about it over a year ago. They had people in place already to hit the ground running.

If Chun is just now “taking steps to get in the game,” he is already too far behind to catch up.

There are schools rounding third base headed for home plate already…. Chun is still standing outside the batters box looking at which bat to choose.

 

[triscuit one]

There are schools rounding third base headed for home plate already…. Chun is still standing outside the batters box looking at which bat to choose.

Well I never said Chun just started, in fact I have no idea when he began preparing for the NIL. I do believe our Pres and AD combo is one of the better we have had so I would be surprised to hear that they have nothing or little planned. Sounds like you might have insider information. If so, please share.

All my comments have stated that I think the NIL (not transfer portal, school location, CAF, etc. though I know they can all bleed into each other) will not destroy WSU. Nor do I think a combination of all will any time soon. That’s all. I definitely could be wrong, and it seems some think it will.