The Pac 12 at this point would be lucky to pull BYU, BSU and Colorado State.
Larry Scott destroyed the conference of champions. May he burn in hell for all eternity.
Nebraska and the OK schools ain’t coming. Oklahoma is big time. They’d go to the SEC. Nebraska should stand pat.
Nebraska has little incentive to move to the PAC-12 that I can see. They might believe that they’d have more success here, but they’d take a hit financially and it’s not likely to improve recruiting.
It doesn’t seem like there’s really strong incentive for any current P-5 conference teams to move. There may be some perception of greener grass, but for the moment it doesn’t seem to be widespread, and the grass isn’t so much greener that people are screaming for it.
That said, conditions can change and winds can shift quickly. I think three things could set off another round of moves:
1. Texas goes independent
2. The SEC expands
3. Notre Dame joins the ACC permanently
In the first two, movement starts with teams exiting the Big 12…and one scenario might lead to the other. I think SEC expansion could target OU/OSU or WVU and a player to be named. The Big 12 doesn’t survive without the Oklahoma schools, and maybe doesn’t survive Texas’ defection. The SEC, Big Ten, and maybe PAC-12 pick the carcass clean.
If Only WVU defects, the Big 12 promotes a G5 team - maybe Cincinnati or Houston - to replace them. This arrangement won’t be very stable, because once one conference goes to 16, the others will try to follow. This probably doesn’t end well for the Big 12.
The 3rd scenario seems less likely, but it’s out there. If Notre Dame joins the ACC, they’ll be on the hunt for a 16th team. Luring WVU or Maryland back seem like the obvious plays, but don’t rule out a move toward Penn State or Georgia (neither of which is likely to bear fruit, but aim for the stars, right?). Any of these moves result in domino effects through the rest of CFB, and again…the Big 12 likely pays the price.
If I’m the Big 12 commissioner, I’m looking for ways to be at the front of this, instead of behind. As quietly as possible, I’m exploring Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, Nebraska, Arkansas, Arizona, and Arizona state. If I can get 4 of them interested, I’ll look for 2 more in the geography that makes sense. If the last 4 are interested, I pull the trigger anyway…and send the rest of the P5 into a panic.
If I’m the PAC-12 commissioner, the Arizona schools make me nervous. Any defections put the conference in a difficult spot, and likely mean promoting lesser teams rather than P5 expansion. The Arizona schools probably make more sense in the Big 12, and likely get bigger payouts there.