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New Year's Eve -- CFP Games, Sugar Bowl, Music City Bowl, NYE Shenanigans

425cougfan

425cougfan

Hall Of Fame
Apr 23, 2011
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Come one, come all, and share your pithy observations, wit, and analysis of the games today. Also cool to just talk about what you're doing for NYE or any stories you have about prior adventures.

I'll start with the Sugar Bowl: Kansas State came out fighting, but it was hard to see Saban, with all we saw this year, allowing anything other than an impressive performance today. Hate watching it but not surprising.

Anyone think TCU or Ohio State can win tonight? Decent amount of late money coming in on Ohio State.
 
I'm a Georgia fan and of course I have my favorite, but if I'm a fan of any other team, the final 4 is pretty boring to me outside of TCU. Last year we discussed viewership numbers and how these increasingly predictable CFP matchups are seeing more and more people just tune out. Only so many times you can see SEC/Clemson/tOSU matchups and still find it interesting
 
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Chucksizzle1 said:
I’m not an Ohio state fan, they are a corporate semi pro monstrosity but the lesser of two evils in this case.
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Don't expect to change your mind, but what makes Ohio State the lesser of two evils? Ohio State OWNS midwest recruiting, and pulls a ton of blue chips from the west coast and SEC country as well, while also enjoying elite funding/facilities. Unlike SEC powers, they essentially recruit UNOPPOSED in a huge swath of the US. There is no functional difference between Ohio State and an SEC team, esp since the SEC has expanded out of the SE
 
Big ten as a whole is not as mercenary or disgusting as the sec. big ten fans as a whole are closer to pac 12 fans, more classy and laid back.

sec fans, almost every school except vAndy and Missouri are just bursting with douchebags

sec officiating is one step below wwe and mean gene okerland. it is one step above the Mustang ranch.

two words : hugh freeze
 
Chucksizzle1 said:
Big ten as a whole is not as mercenary or disgusting as the sec. big ten fans as a whole are closer to pac 12 fans, more classy and laid back.

sec fans, almost every school except vAndy and Missouri are just bursting with douchebags

sec officiating is one step below wwe and mean gene okerland. it is one step above the Mustang ranch.

two words : hugh freeze
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Uh...you mean the B1G who just stole two P12 schools? They ain't good guys.
 
Chucksizzle1 said:
Big ten as a whole is not as mercenary or disgusting as the sec. big ten fans as a whole are closer to pac 12 fans, more classy and laid back.

sec fans, almost every school except vAndy and Missouri are just bursting with douchebags

sec officiating is one step below wwe and mean gene okerland. it is one step above the Mustang ranch.

two words : hugh freeze
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Auburn fans were pretty damn cool. Better than any B1G school and better than most P10/12 school.
 
I’ve never been to an SEC game but I’ve been to NASCAR. I’m guessing pretty similar crowds?
 
COUGinNCW said:
I’ve never been to an SEC game but I’ve been to NASCAR. I’m guessing pretty similar crowds?
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Never been to NASCAR. The Auburn fans were the most cordial I’ve met. Before the game I got all the free beer and food I wanted. Afterward, we got free beer at the Sky Bar from a guy our age and he invited us to his table. As we walked out of the stadium, there was a young punk talking smack, and the Auburn fans pushed him away and told us to ignore him.

Great experience. Highly recommended.

The only other SEC game I went to was the FL/GA game in ‘87 in Jacksonville (we lived inSt Mary’s GA at the time). Went with my dad and his friend and son. My dad’s friend was a USC Gamecock, but loved CFB generally. He wore his USC clothes and chatted away with everyone. I was a teenager but didn’t hear anything crazy. Everyone was nice and we did the tailgating thing with some friend of the guy who took us. Great time.
 
COUGinNCW said:
I’ve never been to an SEC game but I’ve been to NASCAR. I’m guessing pretty similar crowds?
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Definitely not. Go to a game - in most cases you'll like it. Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Swamp or WLOCP all very unique experiences. And not like this:

 
Looks like the holder botched Ohio St chances there.

UGA looked pretty inept on O until that last drive. I wonder how the TCU D will do against them.
 
425cougfan said:
Come one, come all, and share your pithy observations, wit, and analysis of the games today. Also cool to just talk about what you're doing for NYE or any stories you have about prior adventures.

I'll start with the Sugar Bowl: Kansas State came out fighting, but it was hard to see Saban, with all we saw this year, allowing anything other than an impressive performance today. Hate watching it but not surprising.

Anyone think TCU or Ohio State can win tonight? Decent amount of late money coming in on Ohio State.
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They were both great games.
 
dgibbons said:
They were both great games.
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That was one of the best days of college football I can recall. If Kansas State could have beaten Bama in a tight one, it would have been up there with any of them. Happy New Year, all.
 
I will never shed a tear for Ohio State, and the narrative of plucky little Ohio State not having a chance was pretty hilarious for the past few weeks. That said, I was impressed by how much they brought it, and extremely impressed with Day. Not a perfect coaching job, but he was in the zone and called an amazing game. Georgia looked gassed most of the game and Ohio State didn't have many problems putting up points against that defense. Just not quite good enough on that last drive.
 
425cougfan said:
I will never shed a tear for Ohio State, and the narrative of plucky little Ohio State not having a chance was pretty hilarious for the past few weeks. That said, I was impressed by how much they brought it, and extremely impressed with Day. Not a perfect coaching job, but he was in the zone and called an amazing game. Georgia looked gassed most of the game and Ohio State didn't have many problems putting up points against that defense. Just not quite good enough on that last drive.
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Georgia‘s offensive threat is predicated on the trio of Ladd McConkey (freak all-purpose athlete and pass-catcher), Brock Bowers (Jimmy Graham type TE #1) and Darnell Washington (6’7 270 run blocking pass catching TE #2).

Ladd is intermittent with possibly career-ending tendinitis and played very little, Brock was sick with the flu and almost didn’t go, and Darnell went out early with an ankle sprain. So basically the entire offense was neutralized in the 1Q which is when it started getting out of control.

On defense, 2 of Georgia’s top 3 defenders didn’t play, but the defense was probably overrated anyway. They couldn’t stop anything; tOSU has some freak receivers.

Everyone’s blaming the kicker, but the one good thing Georgia did all night was the final 3 defensive plays where they forced tOSU into a 50 yard kick. That has to be below 50% in the NFL, and could barely be double digits in college. Putting the game on that kid sucks for him.
 
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Suudy said:
Looked to like the gold was botched. The reaction of the holder vs the kicker indicated as much. Though watching the replay I’m not sure.

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Hold was perfect. Curious why kicker reacted that way the ball was clearly down at the preferred angle laces out, etc.
 
Coug90 said:
Hold was perfect. Curious why kicker reacted that way the ball was clearly down at the preferred angle laces out, etc.
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Looks to me like of the 3 keys to the play - snap, hold, and kick - the hold was the best. Snap was a little offline, but the holder got it down and rotated. Watching frame by frame, it looks like the kicker may not have gotten his leg locked before contact. Maybe knowing he was at the edge of his range he was trying for extra power (the announcer immediately says “overkicked”) and messed up his mechanics. That would also account for the horizontal rotation on the ball. Watching live and seeing the rotation I’d initially thought someone got a finger on it, but it’s clear that didn’t happen.

I think it’s simply a missed kick. I wouldn’t hang the kicker out for it though. They knew it was the edge of his range. At that distance, even NFL kickers only convert 60-65%. College kickers lag by about 10% at all distances, so an NCAA 50-yard attempt is basically a coin flip.

If people really feel the need to look for blame, look at the offense that managed to do nothing to get him closer on the preceding 3 plays.

Ruggles was actually lucky to even get the chance - Stroud’s pass should have been picked off on 2nd down.
 
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chipdouglas said:
Georgia‘s offensive threat is predicated on the trio of Ladd McConkey (freak all-purpose athlete and pass-catcher), Brock Bowers (Jimmy Graham type TE #1) and Darnell Washington (6’7 270 run blocking pass catching TE #2).

Ladd is intermittent with possibly career-ending tendinitis and played very little, Brock was sick with the flu and almost didn’t go, and Darnell went out early with an ankle sprain. So basically the entire offense was neutralized in the 1Q which is when it started getting out of control.

On defense, 2 of Georgia’s top 3 defenders didn’t play, but the defense was probably overrated anyway. They couldn’t stop anything; tOSU has some freak receivers.

Everyone’s blaming the kicker, but the one good thing Georgia did all night was the final 3 defensive plays where they forced tOSU into a 50 yard kick. That has to be below 50% in the NFL, and could barely be double digits in college. Putting the game on that kid sucks for him.
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Chip, what do you think about the championship? TCU cover?
 
chipdouglas said:
Don't expect to change your mind, but what makes Ohio State the lesser of two evils? Ohio State OWNS midwest recruiting, and pulls a ton of blue chips from the west coast and SEC country as well, while also enjoying elite funding/facilities. Unlike SEC powers, they essentially recruit UNOPPOSED in a huge swath of the US. There is no functional difference between Ohio State and an SEC team, esp since the SEC has expanded out of the SE
Click to expand...

The SEC corporate monstrosity is far more harmful to everyone else than Ohio State is. Both are bad, but the SEC as whole participates in a concerted effort to weaken everyone else. F#ck the SEC.
 
95coug said:
Looks to me like of the 3 keys to the play - snap, hold, and kick - the hold was the best. Snap was a little offline, but the holder got it down and rotated. Watching frame by frame, it looks like the kicker may not have gotten his leg locked before contact. Maybe knowing he was at the edge of his range he was trying for extra power (the announcer immediately says “overkicked”) and messed up his mechanics. That would also account for the horizontal rotation on the ball. Watching live and seeing the rotation I’d initially thought someone got a finger on it, but it’s clear that didn’t happen.

I think it’s simply a missed kick. I wouldn’t hang the kicker out for it though. They knew it was the edge of his range. At that distance, even NFL kickers only convert 60-65%. College kickers lag by about 10% at all distances, so an NCAA 50-yard attempt is basically a coin flip.

If people really feel the need to look for blame, look at the offense that managed to do nothing to get him closer on the preceding 3 plays.

Ruggles was actually lucky to even get the chance - Stroud’s pass should have been picked off on 2nd down.
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I also thought it was a bad snap or hold in realtime, but replay showed it was all pretty good. What threw me (and others) is fact that the ball went sideways, as you pointed out - it was just a bad kick.

WRT to FG% from 50+, only info I could find was from 2018 season, but this is Power 5 only, so you're looking at the top half of kickers in CFB here, and from 50 yards it's barely 40%. In other words, as I said above, putting a low-percentage kick on the guy isn't fair to him. Georgia's D was trash all night but were able to force tOSU into a low-% play at the very end and that's all that mattered

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When it comes to TCU-UGA in the final, I've obviously got my team but would at least be taking the points with TCU. They stunned undefeated Michigan while Georgia needed a missed FG. Unclear yet whether TCU's excitement (vs Georgia's 'been there before' poise) will be an asset or a liability, but you have to be concerned about Georgia's injuries at this point. Bowers should be recovered but McConkey (tendinitis) and Washington (ankle sprain) will be limited or out altogether, meaning 2/3 of their passing attack is more or less gone. Team captain and best OL Warren McClendon may still be out. Georgia's 2nd best defender (Nolan Smith) remains out, and Chambliss (OLB) may be out. Then some injuries to lesser 1s and 2s. I doubt the defense we saw on NYE will stop TCU so the question is, can Georgia get to 40-50 against a hair-on-fire TCU, down its best OL and 2/3 of its passing attack? We'll see. Worst case I would take the points with TCU
 
425cougfan said:
Chip, what do you think about the championship? TCU cover?
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I don't recommend betting anymore (I lost $4k on Utah upsetting Ohio State last year) and anything can happen, but if I were a betting man still, I would take the points. Wrote more detailed about this directly above.
 
Flatlandcoug said:
The SEC corporate monstrosity is far more harmful to everyone else than Ohio State is. Both are bad, but the SEC as whole participates in a concerted effort to weaken everyone else. F#ck the SEC.
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I understand your frustration but have a... broader POV since expanding my education beyond WSU, and now think the SEC hate I once shared in is just sad.

What I will grant is that, outside of maybe Florida & Vandy, and maybe a couple programs at UGA, the SEC barely counts as an academically accredited conference.
 
chipdouglas said:
I don't recommend betting anymore (I lost $4k on Utah upsetting Ohio State last year) and anything can happen, but if I were a betting man still, I would take the points. Wrote more detailed about this directly above.
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Id bet the under. I think the scoring was inflated as offenses had the advantage with month of prep. My thoughts Vegas puts in a big O/U because of the high scoring Semis. Then you get a 20-17 slugfest. My 2C.
 
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