Not so much "afraid" of Stanford's defense

[CrimsonWazzu]

I don't say this because I think their defense isn't a fairly good unit. I say this because they really haven't faced any good passers except for Cody Kessler. And their defense isn't putting up mindblowing numbers in terms of sacks, takeaways, TFL's, etc.

I do give them credit where due. They have a pretty good PER defense and are allowing 3.99 yards per carry which is very good. The eye test tells me their are a typical Stanford D, when it comes to scheme and fundamentals, technique. They cover and tackle well. They don't give up huge plays.

But look at this list of QB's they've faced:

NW: Clayton Throson - 107-203, 52.7%, 6 TD, 5 INT, 103.8 Rating
UCF: (3 QB's) - 155-300, 51.7%, 10 TD, 17 INT, 96 Rating
USC: Cody Kessler - 156-225 69.3%, 18 TD, 5 INT 169 Rating
OSU: Seth Collins - 81-156 51.9%, 6 TD, 4 INT, 107.4 Rating
UA: Jerrard Randall - 35-66 53%. 4 TD, 1 INT, 122.8 Rating(also has over 600 rushing yards and 5 TD's)
UCLA: Josh Rosen 158-257 61.5% 15TD, 7 INT, 139.6 Rating(True Freshman)
UW: KJ Carta Samuels "lol" not even worth compiling stats, he's played in 2 games and is terrible.

Kessler went 25 of 32 for 272 yards and 3 TDs, 0 INT. (180.5 PER) Stanford won 41-31, and did so by being much better on 3rd down. There wasn't much defense in this game. No TO's.

But when you go through this list and look at the by-game totals of these QB's vs Stanford compared to the rest of their season so far, it seems that this is more of a huge list of bad QB's than a good defense thing going on here. Kessler is good. Rosen is right around the median for FBS QB's. And everyone else is below, and most of them are terrible....not just vs Stanford.

Some other not-so-scary Stanford Defense numbers if you're the Cougs:

1.43 sacks/game(10 total) - 103rd
5.1 TFL/game(36 total) - 102nd
5 Takeaways - 123rd

Just some things to chew on as we get closer to Saturday.

 

[Cougatron]

I don't think their defense is that strong. It's the offense that really has carried them this year. Their offensive line is big and physical and they power run right at you which is hard to defend.

The real test is our defense against them. If our front 7 can really hold up I think we will be in great shape.

That's where the real battle will be for this game. We win that and we can do really really well.

 

[Cougsocal]

Stanford's defense on paper isn't that impressive. But they do what they need to do, i.e. limit first downs and turn it over to their meat grinder O. Where they have a big advantage over all other Pac-12 and FBS teams is in the IQ department. The average Pac-12 player didn't score 1000 on the SAT and has a HS GPA of 2.8, their average is 1180 and a 3.63 GPA. Traditionally, when Stanford has Pac-12 level talent, and they do now, they win by playing smarter (and now more physical) football over 60 minutes. Nothing fancy, but clinically effective. Now the Cougs have a Stanford level QB in Falk, but the rest of the team is not know for intelligent, physical football.

I don't think Falk will be the reason we lose, but unless his teammates play smart football, limiting mistakes (well beyond TOs), for as close to 60 minutes as possible, Stanford will win by playing sound, making fewer mistakes and beating us up physically.

 

[Brent H.]

I don't say this because I think their defense isn't a fairly good unit. I say this because they really haven't faced any good passers except for Cody Kessler. And their defense isn't putting up mindblowing numbers in terms of sacks, takeaways, TFL's, etc.

I do give them credit where due. They have a pretty good PER defense and are allowing 3.99 yards per carry which is very good. The eye test tells me their are a typical Stanford D, when it comes to scheme and fundamentals, technique. They cover and tackle well. They don't give up huge plays.

But look at this list of QB's they've faced:

NW: Clayton Throson - 107-203, 52.7%, 6 TD, 5 INT, 103.8 Rating
UCF: (3 QB's) - 155-300, 51.7%, 10 TD, 17 INT, 96 Rating
USC: Cody Kessler - 156-225 69.3%, 18 TD, 5 INT 169 Rating
OSU: Seth Collins - 81-156 51.9%, 6 TD, 4 INT, 107.4 Rating
UA: Jerrard Randall - 35-66 53%. 4 TD, 1 INT, 122.8 Rating(also has over 600 rushing yards and 5 TD's)
UCLA: Josh Rosen 158-257 61.5% 15TD, 7 INT, 139.6 Rating(True Freshman)
UW: KJ Carta Samuels "lol" not even worth compiling stats, he's played in 2 games and is terrible.

Kessler went 25 of 32 for 272 yards and 3 TDs, 0 INT. (180.5 PER) Stanford won 41-31, and did so by being much better on 3rd down. There wasn't much defense in this game. No TO's.

But when you go through this list and look at the by-game totals of these QB's vs Stanford compared to the rest of their season so far, it seems that this is more of a huge list of bad QB's than a good defense thing going on here. Kessler is good. Rosen is right around the median for FBS QB's. And everyone else is below, and most of them are terrible....not just vs Stanford.

Some other not-so-scary Stanford Defense numbers if you're the Cougs:

1.43 sacks/game(10 total) - 103rd
5.1 TFL/game(36 total) - 102nd
5 Takeaways - 123rd

Just some things to chew on as we get closer to Saturday.

UW manage to score 14 points on them, so how good can it really be?

 

[dgibbons]

I don't think their defense is that strong. It's the offense that really has carried them this year. Their offensive line is big and physical and they power run right at you which is hard to defend.

The real test is our defense against them. If our front 7 can really hold up I think we will be in great shape.

That's where the real battle will be for this game. We win that and we can do really really well.

Need to get ahead and force Hogan and the receivers to make plays.

 

[M-I-Coug]

I've been lurking on one of Stanford's boards, and almost all Tree Fans' feel that there's no way we will put more than 25 or 30 points on them.

 

[MikeFingLeach]

Good thread. I was shocked to see how few sacks Stanford has compiled. I know their depth is thin across the dline. If we can wear them down and protect Luke, we should be able to put up plenty of pts.

As discussed, Stanford's Oline scares me. I'm also hoping for reasonable weather. Pouring rain isn't optimal for our O.

 

[405 Coug]

It will take 35 to win, so we need to find a way to score.

 

[froropmkr72]

UW manage to score 14 points on them, so how good can it really be?

Besides that. The Cougs offense needs to be on the field slightly longer and with a lead going into the second half. Stanford is leading the nation in time of possession and that's how they've won. Their oline and defense have been physical and they've worn people down with McCaffrey who's gained so many yards per rush. His granddad sprinted in the 60' Olympics and his grandson is for real and he's running behind one of the best run blocking olines in the nation

 

[Cougatron]

I've been lurking on one of Stanford's boards, and almost all Tree Fans' feel that there's no way we will put more than 25 or 30 points on them.

Well let's take a look.

Stanford has the #47 pass defense
Stanford is #106 in tackles for loss
Stanford is #105 in sacks

They've played against
#80 Washington
#25 UCLA
#14 USC
#119 Northwestern
#117 Oregon State
#91 UCF
#46 Arizona

So they haven't faced too many good passing teams. Obviously we are the best in the conference at it. So let's evaluate what went on in the games against the better passing teams.

Arizona - Obviously a run first team that sets up the pass, and Solomon really didn't do that much and neither did Randall. It's clear they punish people with the ground game and then throw a lot of bombs. Not a similar test at all.

UCLA - Rosen looked way out of sync starting off with a pick six against Stanford. He looked like a true freshmen out there, and while he is a good QB it was clear he was helping Stanford beat them, and they basically got runover with no looking back. He still threw for 326 yards on 22 completions and 3 TDs. Falk is better by far with his decision making.

USC - Was 28-31 into the 4th and ended up being a 10 point game. Kessler still threw 3 TDs on 30 attempts and was guided by drunk Sark.

So what we have here are the teams that are good at passing still being able to pass against Stanford. As I said earlier stopping their ground pound will be the difference. We do that and we'll have enough points to win.

 

[95coug]

I don't say this because I think their defense isn't a fairly good unit. I say this because they really haven't faced any good passers except for Cody Kessler. And their defense isn't putting up mindblowing numbers in terms of sacks, takeaways, TFL's, etc.

I do give them credit where due. They have a pretty good PER defense and are allowing 3.99 yards per carry which is very good. The eye test tells me their are a typical Stanford D, when it comes to scheme and fundamentals, technique. They cover and tackle well. They don't give up huge plays.

But look at this list of QB's they've faced:

NW: Clayton Throson - 107-203, 52.7%, 6 TD, 5 INT, 103.8 Rating
UCF: (3 QB's) - 155-300, 51.7%, 10 TD, 17 INT, 96 Rating
USC: Cody Kessler - 156-225 69.3%, 18 TD, 5 INT 169 Rating
OSU: Seth Collins - 81-156 51.9%, 6 TD, 4 INT, 107.4 Rating
UA: Jerrard Randall - 35-66 53%. 4 TD, 1 INT, 122.8 Rating(also has over 600 rushing yards and 5 TD's)
UCLA: Josh Rosen 158-257 61.5% 15TD, 7 INT, 139.6 Rating(True Freshman)
UW: KJ Carta Samuels "lol" not even worth compiling stats, he's played in 2 games and is terrible.

Kessler went 25 of 32 for 272 yards and 3 TDs, 0 INT. (180.5 PER) Stanford won 41-31, and did so by being much better on 3rd down. There wasn't much defense in this game. No TO's.

But when you go through this list and look at the by-game totals of these QB's vs Stanford compared to the rest of their season so far, it seems that this is more of a huge list of bad QB's than a good defense thing going on here. Kessler is good. Rosen is right around the median for FBS QB's. And everyone else is below, and most of them are terrible....not just vs Stanford.

Some other not-so-scary Stanford Defense numbers if you're the Cougs:

1.43 sacks/game(10 total) - 103rd
5.1 TFL/game(36 total) - 102nd
5 Takeaways - 123rd

Just some things to chew on as we get closer to Saturday.

I agree with most of your points, but two things I think are worth looking closer at:

Rosen - who you're correct is pretty average - threw for 326 yards against Stanford. His completion % wasn't great (22-42, 52.4%), but he got good yards. Even if you take away the 70-yard completion (big play, by the way), he went for 256. UCLA also ran for 180 yards on 31 carries, so it wasn't like they were leaning on the pass that heavily. Note also that the Bruins averaged almost 6 yards per carry...which included runs of 37 and 43 yards. The trees also gave up passes for 38 and 70...so they had some big play issues against UCLA.

Collins went 20/36 (55.5%) for 275 against Stanford, with completions for 40 and 36. The Beavs were balanced in playcalling (36 runs, 36 passes), but not production - they only ran for 111.

Point is...they're not really that good against the pass. Some fairly average QBs have gotten yards against them, and more importantly, they've given up big plays. They've given up at least one 30+ yard completion against everyone except Northwestern (long of 25) and Arizona (long of 29). Against USC, 4 different receivers had a catch for 20+, one for 54. 3 UCLA receivers had one for 20+, one for 70. OSU had 3 at 20+. And neither USC, UCLA, or OSU has the passing game we do...and I'd argue that none of them have the receivers we do.

Anyway, I think Falk will get his yards. He'll likely hit 400, unless he throws a bunch of picks. The biggest question is going to be whether the D can get some stops. If they can play like they did the 2nd quarter against Oregon State, we'll win. But...they haven't played a full game yet, and they won't be able to let down against Stanford. We'll probably score 30...but it's on the D to keep Stanford below 30...and only one team has done that this season.

 

[CougEd]

I've been lurking on one of Stanford's boards, and almost all Tree Fans' feel that there's no way we will put more than 25 or 30 points on them.

I would imagine their logic is if they grind the clock, move the ball on the ground and play keep away, then on defense they keep everything in front of them, drop 8 into coverage and make WSU run the ball and burn clock, I could see scoring more than 24 being impressive with that as a back drop.

 

[wulffui]

Your insistence that "dropping eight" is some kind of magic chain that locks up the Leach offense seems a bit outdated now that he has a QB who's come up under his tutelage and can find those holes, and a running game that averages six yards a carry. Noting the inability of Stanford to get pressure, them doing what you suggest essentially takes "pressuring the QB" out of their hands as an option. Falk with time?

Really, defensively, it sounds like a recipe for the Cougs to move at will.

 

[CougPatrol]

If it's cold, wet and windy, that's going to hamper us whether we want to admit it or not.

The key is for us to start fast and not get in a deep hole early. Stanford doesn't have to grind it out exclusively like they've done in years past. They have a lot of speed and can break big plays at any time. Frankly, I hope they try to shorten the game. We don't need a lot of possessions, we just need to make the most of them. I hope our passing game is able to grind THEM out.

 

[wazzucougs96]

Your insistence that "dropping eight" is some kind of magic chain that locks up the Leach offense seems a bit outdated now that he has a QB who's come up under his tutelage and can find those holes, and a running game that averages six yards a carry. Noting the inability of Stanford to get pressure, them doing what you suggest essentially takes "pressuring the QB" out of their hands as an option. Falk with time?

Really, defensively, it sounds like a recipe for the Cougs to move at will.

I think you missed his point entirely. If they can force us to run more than we normally do, that works out greatly in their favor.

 

[wulffui]

I think you missed his point entirely. If they can force us to run more than we normally do, that works out greatly in their favor.

Based on... what, exactly? This year, running more has led to better results.

 

[MRICoug]

If it's cold, wet and windy, that's going to hamper us whether we want to admit it or not.

The key is for us to start fast and not get in a deep hole early. Stanford doesn't have to grind it out exclusively like they've done in years past. They have a lot of speed and can break big plays at any time. Frankly, I hope they try to shorten the game. We don't need a lot of possessions, we just need to make the most of them. I hope our passing game is able to grind THEM out.

Not sure I agree there. We are not a deep passing team, and the biggest issue with wind/rain would be throwing deep. Also take into account that Stanford does not force many turnovers this year, but RB/QB exchange on hand-offs would be easily as affected as the short passing game. I believe we pull out some stuff in this game. Not sure if we win, but pretty sure we will look like we belong.

 

[CougEd]

Based on... what, exactly? This year, running more has led to better results.

It shortens the game. Less "explosives". It takes away what Leach really likes to do. We will see what happens on Saturday.

 

[Coug95man2]

If it's cold, wet and windy, that's going to hamper us whether we want to admit it or not.

The key is for us to start fast and not get in a deep hole early. Stanford doesn't have to grind it out exclusively like they've done in years past. They have a lot of speed and can break big plays at any time. Frankly, I hope they try to shorten the game. We don't need a lot of possessions, we just need to make the most of them. I hope our passing game is able to grind THEM out.

I hope our team has learned to get past this. The PSU game should have been an eye opener for them. This will be the weather from this point on so they better get used to it.

Regarding to the possible idea that weather hampers CML's "system", I'd disagree. Lubbock has some of the worst weather, ever. Cold and rain? Probably not the same as here but he points out wind is actually something he enjoys. As he aptly points out below.

 

[wulffui]

Well, I hope that's their plan. As we've seen this year, as much as what Leach likes to do is important, what matters is what the QUARTERBACK wants to do, looking at a set alignment. If you're suggesting that they want to put the onus on a thin DL against our OL, and hope Falk makes the same checks Halliday did, well, I'd take that right now.

 

[Cougsocal]

Well let's take a look.

Stanford has the #47 pass defense
Stanford is #106 in tackles for loss
Stanford is #105 in sacks

They've played against
#80 Washington
#25 UCLA
#14 USC
#119 Northwestern
#117 Oregon State
#91 UCF
#46 Arizona

So they haven't faced too many good passing teams. Obviously we are the best in the conference at it. So let's evaluate what went on in the games against the better passing teams.

Arizona - Obviously a run first team that sets up the pass, and Solomon really didn't do that much and neither did Randall. It's clear they punish people with the ground game and then throw a lot of bombs. Not a similar test at all.

UCLA - Rosen looked way out of sync starting off with a pick six against Stanford. He looked like a true freshmen out there, and while he is a good QB it was clear he was helping Stanford beat them, and they basically got runover with no looking back. He still threw for 326 yards on 22 completions and 3 TDs. Falk is better by far with his decision making.

USC - Was 28-31 into the 4th and ended up being a 10 point game. Kessler still threw 3 TDs on 30 attempts and was guided by drunk Sark.

So what we have here are the teams that are good at passing still being able to pass against Stanford. As I said earlier stopping their ground pound will be the difference. We do that and we'll have enough points to win.

Let's not kid ourselves.

Sure Stanford hasn't played an offense like ours. And we will put up some points no doubt. But we haven't played an offense remotely like theirs either. They ran up 50+ on both Arizona and UCLA, in regulation, playing power football. How many long McCaffrey right, left and up the middle drives can our defense withstand before they wear out? No team in the conference gives up more yards per attempt on the ground than we do.

The fact is they have the league's No. 1 defense, we have No. 10. Our offense is good, but they have still scored more, playing low scoring power football. They don't have special teams problems, our are a mess. They have many ways to win this game. We need to be damn near perfect, and Grinch's gambles need to be right 8 out of 10 times.

Counterintuitively, we need to get them in a lot of third and shorts. For most teams, that is the worst case scenerio. But for Stanford, they become more predictable in that situation. They want to prove to themselves that they can run the ball down your throats. They will want to dominate our big guys, and see it as a challenge. We will know what is coming and need to sell out to stop it, and pray that Shalom can do his best impression of John Rushing, when they mix it up. Power football ego, Bielema syndrome, is their major weakness.

We don't have answers for their TEs, Cajuste or Owusu. They are just too big. We don't want to be in play action situations. That is the nightmare scenerio for us. We don't play vanilla well at all.

 

[chugspig]

Wind and rain should be about half of what Portland st was at worst. Probably pretty similar to the Oregon game at autzen.

 

[CougEd]

Let's not kid ourselves.

Sure Stanford hasn't played an offense like ours. And we will put up some points no doubt. But we haven't played an offense remotely like theirs either. They ran up 50+ on both Arizona and UCLA, in regulation, playing power football. How many long McCaffrey right, left and up the middle drives can our defense withstand before they wear out? No team in the conference gives up more yards per attempt on the ground than we do.

The fact is they have the league's No. 1 defense, we have No. 10. Our offense is good, but they have still scored more, playing low scoring power football. They don't have special teams problems, our are a mess. They have many ways to win this game. We need to be damn near perfect, and Grinch's gambles need to be right 8 out of 10 times.

Counterintuitively, we need to get them in a lot of third and shorts. For most teams, that is the worst case scenerio. But for Stanford, they become more predictable in that situation. They want to prove to themselves that they can run the ball down your throats. They will want to dominate our big guys, and see it as a challenge. We will know what is coming and need to sell out to stop it, and pray that Shalom can do his best impression of John Rushing, when they mix it up. Power football ego, Bielema syndrome, is their major weakness.

We don't have answers for their TEs, Cajuste or Owusu. They are just too big. We don't want to be in play action situations. That is the nightmare scenerio for us. We don't play vanilla well at all.

In all these scenarios, even when people talked about Arizona no one really mentions special teams. We put up a ton of long drives and points on Arizona. I think we probably scored a TD or 10 more points than I thought we would, which is great. I thought Arizona would get 31-35 on our defense, and where we would lose the game was on special teams, especially punt returns. Clearly they haven't fixed that problem yet, and I hope McCaffrey doesn't break a couple of returns. We have to be flawless in special teams.

But Stanford just bludgeons people to death. Just a whole different beast. No, I am not saying we can't win, but there are games on the schedule I am much more sure about.

And I wonder if we did beat PSU, would game day be in Pullman, two 6-1 teams battling it out for first place?

 

[CougPatrol]

Admittedly, I don't have a good feeling about this game; mainly because I think Stanford is one of the top 5 - 7 teams in the Nation and I don't think our program is ready to compete at that level....yet.

The only thing that gives me a glimmer of hope is that the weakness of the Stanford defense is their defensive line depth. That's a good matchup to have in our favor. I also thought that while Stanford no doubt handled us easily last year, we fought hard and made them work for everything they got. If we put up 30+, we'll be in the game all the way.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

I think the Cougs can hold their own on the LOS both ways now and that will go a long way. Mentioned above as well, but the Cougs have been able to sustain longer drives that take time off the clock and if that continues, they'll have a solid chance.