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Portal thoughts

etowncoug

Hall Of Fame
Apr 15, 2018
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I've seen plenty of buzz over how great the portal is going to be for WSU, but how much can we really expect to benefit from this change?

Basketball has had a transfer culture for a while now and this change has undoubtedly been a net negative for the Cougs. Losing players like Malachi Flynn plus numerous other players who could have given quality depth has hurt more than the relatively minor contributions from the transfers we've received over the years. I expect football to follow a similar path.

The narrative of gaining power 5 transfers while losing kids to lower levels seems to be taking root, including from Paul Sorenson who calls the portal the new JC. The big difference between the portal and JC is that JC's were never a superior option to playing at WSU. Kids were stuck their because of a lack of grades out of HS, getting booted for bad behavior, or they were late bloomers. The portal primarily consists of kids unable to lock down a starting job at a D1 school. All five of our portal kids (Guarantano, Wilson, Jackson, Watson, and Victor) fit this mold. Victor is of course a nice add as a walk on. The rest, however, are generating a ton of excitement based on their talent out of HS. It's safe to say none have lived up to their hype as recruits. My guess would be their prior fanbases aren't complaining about their departures either. I'd ballpark the success rate for portal kids at around 50% here. Some are going to thrive with a change of scenery or the opportunity to play but it's not going to work well for others.

But in exchange for these additions, we have to worry about starters hitting the portal in pursuit of a bigger stage. In an era where players can get paid for their likeness, I don't see how we come out well in this. The bigger issue is the exodus of depth. How many kids who would have been on the depth chart have we lost since Rolovich arrived? Cruz, Martin, Calvin, Woods, Bacon, Fisher, Mayginnes, Rodgers, McDougle, Kwete, Thomas, Ross, Nunn, Hector, and Mazza. That's a lot of experience to head out the door. While many of these guys might not have been stars, we would all be more comfortable with them on the roster should we have a starter go down. I'd hope to avoid situations where we avoid throwing kids onto the field without experience because they are a warm body.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see the path to success here as developing decent depth by keeping enough kids in the program for 4-5 years rather than using the portal/JC for half your class to fill holes.
 
I've seen plenty of buzz over how great the portal is going to be for WSU, but how much can we really expect to benefit from this change?

Basketball has had a transfer culture for a while now and this change has undoubtedly been a net negative for the Cougs. Losing players like Malachi Flynn plus numerous other players who could have given quality depth has hurt more than the relatively minor contributions from the transfers we've received over the years. I expect football to follow a similar path.

The narrative of gaining power 5 transfers while losing kids to lower levels seems to be taking root, including from Paul Sorenson who calls the portal the new JC. The big difference between the portal and JC is that JC's were never a superior option to playing at WSU. Kids were stuck their because of a lack of grades out of HS, getting booted for bad behavior, or they were late bloomers. The portal primarily consists of kids unable to lock down a starting job at a D1 school. All five of our portal kids (Guarantano, Wilson, Jackson, Watson, and Victor) fit this mold. Victor is of course a nice add as a walk on. The rest, however, are generating a ton of excitement based on their talent out of HS. It's safe to say none have lived up to their hype as recruits. My guess would be their prior fanbases aren't complaining about their departures either. I'd ballpark the success rate for portal kids at around 50% here. Some are going to thrive with a change of scenery or the opportunity to play but it's not going to work well for others.

But in exchange for these additions, we have to worry about starters hitting the portal in pursuit of a bigger stage. In an era where players can get paid for their likeness, I don't see how we come out well in this. The bigger issue is the exodus of depth. How many kids who would have been on the depth chart have we lost since Rolovich arrived? Cruz, Martin, Calvin, Woods, Bacon, Fisher, Mayginnes, Rodgers, McDougle, Kwete, Thomas, Ross, Nunn, Hector, and Mazza. That's a lot of experience to head out the door. While many of these guys might not have been stars, we would all be more comfortable with them on the roster should we have a starter go down. I'd hope to avoid situations where we avoid throwing kids onto the field without experience because they are a warm body.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see the path to success here as developing decent depth by keeping enough kids in the program for 4-5 years rather than using the portal/JC for half your class to fill holes.

I agree with a lot of what you have said. And I have made a lot of the same points. And I dont understand those that have and will disagree with some of these points.

If you have a coach like Smith or Leach, if your WSU, your probably going to get a Transfer like a Tari Eason, etc, and a serviceable semi starter, and some Transfers who will make your 2,3 deeps, and add to your depth. About 65% to 75% of your transfers will work out. And the only Transfers you will lose are those who are 3,4,5 deep, and there wont be as many transfers. Basically the Transfer Portal will be a basic Net Win. Especially for Basketball. But that said you still only use Transfers to fill holes, and HS recruits should still be the majority, Especially in football.

But thats for good coaches at WSU.

For neutral, mediocre coaches that are not bad, not good, the Transfer Portal will be either a tie, wash, or a slight Net loss.

For bad coaches, the Transfer Portal will be very bad. Tari Eason types wont transfer to a mediocre to bad coach. Those who do Transfer to WSU wont even make 2,3 deep, depth charts, wont help WSU. Those who leave WSU will be either starters, 2 deep, #1 back up depth.

For Bad, or struggling coaches, The Transfer Portal will make it harder to improve roster, and Roster likely get wose because of Portal.

The Transfer Portal will make good coaches a PREMIUM.

For USC, Duke Types, in Football and Basketball, it will be easier to avoid Transfer Portal pitfalls.

For WSU types, the Transfer Portal will be a NET LOSS, for both Football, Badketball, but more fir Football, then basketball, because WSU is Not a destination college for good coaches, and WSU types, more often have bad coaches, then good coaches, so the Transfer Portal because of that will USUALLY be a NET LOSS.

But for now in Basketball the Transfer Portal will probably be a NET GAIN for Kyle Smith.

And for Rolo, in football, the Portal will probably either be a tie, or just barely by skin of teeth, a slight net loss, at least for now. Now if Rolo does well in future years that will change.

Overall, your right that the Portal will be a slight net loss for WSU.

Anybody disagreeing with that are probably either have semi flawed logic, misunderstanding, etc, and will probably need to prove their disagreements right.

And I dont see how someone coukd disagree with what Etown, and me, and others are saying, have said this about the Transfer Portal.
 
The portal is another nail in the college football coffin for me. My interest continues to drop. I used to go to 9+ games a year. I may go to three this year. No more season tickets.
 
The portal is another nail in the college football coffin for me. My interest continues to drop. I used to go to 9+ games a year. I may go to three this year. No more season tickets.

Youth sports, man. Doesn't promote the values of playing through adversity with your neighborhood guys. David and Goliath battles. Jump to the elite travel team at the first chance.

Unfortunately, we start this foolishness in the 3rd grade. By 7th grade, the super teams are assembled and they steamroll the competition. That really makes for character building, you know. We have met the enemy and he is us.

Not surprised that with the advent of 7 on 7 travel teams this grass is greener mentality has come home to roost in football, too. Cherish the guys who stay four years. They are about to become the exception rather than the rule.

And it will accelerate as coaches figure out they can broom the non-performers/malcontents out the door much easier by encouraging transfer portal entries. Even though historically scholarships are one-year contracts, it looked bad if they weren't renewed. That's not going to be an issue moving forward - the player will be disposable because there are 100 like him out there in the portal looking for a fresh start/new home.
 
I mean out of all the kids from here who hit the portal who upgraded? Temple, Northern Arizona, Arizona, SMU? Some haven’t even found a spot. Fisher hasn’t been in the program for a year. McDougle couldn’t get into shape in two years with Leach. I doubt you see Hector on any P5 team. It appears that WSU upgraded their depth compared to who they lost. WSU needed help at corner and linebacker and got it.

Recruiting JC’s is more of a risk than the portal. Especially right now. Maybe after Covid is over and Cali schools are playing again and kids are getting the support they need you’d see an increase in JC recruiting but you can’t offer a kid who isn’t getting academic or athletic support currently. With portal kids you know they are going to be academically eligible and have been in a weight program the last 8 months unlike with JC’s kids.
 
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Portal kids coming from another P5 school, in theory, should know what it is supposed to look like. The practice, the weight room, the meetings, the coursework, etc.

JC kids have no idea.
 
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Youth sports, man. Doesn't promote the values of playing through adversity with your neighborhood guys. David and Goliath battles. Jump to the elite travel team at the first chance.

Unfortunately, we start this foolishness in the 3rd grade. By 7th grade, the super teams are assembled and they steamroll the competition. That really makes for character building, you know. We have met the enemy and he is us.

Not surprised that with the advent of 7 on 7 travel teams this grass is greener mentality has come home to roost in football, too. Cherish the guys who stay four years. They are about to become the exception rather than the rule.

And it will accelerate as coaches figure out they can broom the non-performers/malcontents out the door much easier by encouraging transfer portal entries. Even though historically scholarships are one-year contracts, it looked bad if they weren't renewed. That's not going to be an issue moving forward - the player will be disposable because there are 100 like him out there in the portal looking for a fresh start/new home.
I agree with this 100%. The thing that I'll never truly get about building youth and high school Super Teams is that if your not 1A or 1B option on those super teams or just a physical freak... you become just a nice cog in the wheel and often get overlooked due to the 1A or 1B players so elite. Yet, if you were The Man on a .500 team and asked to do everything: score, leadership, play multiple positions, take big shots, ect........your star would be brighter as you battle and go up against player 1A & 1B of said super team. It's wild to me that parents fail to see what true characteristics are important in development.
 
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I mean out of all the kids from here who hit the portal who upgraded? Temple, Northern Arizona, Arizona, SMU? Some haven’t even found a spot. Fisher hasn’t been in the program for a year. McDougle couldn’t get into shape in two years with Leach. I doubt you see Hector on any P5 team. It appears that WSU upgraded their depth compared to who they lost. WSU needed help at corner and linebacker and got it.

Recruiting JC’s is more of a risk than the portal. Especially right now. Maybe after Covid is over and Cali schools are playing again and kids are getting the support they need you’d see an increase in JC recruiting but you can’t offer a kid who isn’t getting academic or athletic support currently. With portal kids you know they are going to be academically eligible and have been in a weight program the last 8 months unlike with JC’s kids.

Whether or not the kids who left ended up in better situations is irrelevant to the point I was making. The relevant question is whether or not our team would be better with this guys on the roster. I don't see how the team is better or deeper as a result of the transfer activity.

We've upgraded the QB spot with Guarantano providing more help to the team than Cruz would. Same for RB with Watson providing much needed depth and experience.

But WR? We've lost Tay Martin, Jamire Calvin, Rodrick Fisher, Kassidy Woods, and Lucas Bacon to the portal in the past 15 months. He's been replaced by Lincoln Victor. Would you rather have Lincoln Victor or Jamire Calvin as a back up slot receiver next year? Would Tay Martin or Rodrick Fisher fit into an outside receiver rotation better than Donovan Ollie or the walk ons who are rotating in the second string? While Lucas Bacon was no star, he was a better in case of emergency break glass option than who we'll have next year based on experience alone.

OL saw the departure of Hunter Mayginnes who had some experience. But his departure probably doesn't hurt due to the sheer number of bodies at the position.

On the DL, would you rather have Will Rodgers/Cosmas Kwete or Quinn Rolf as the #4 Edge?

LB and Corner have been boosted with the additions of Ben Wilson and Chris Jackson.

Safety depth has been decimated though. Hunter Escoria wouldn't be near the field if it hadn't been for the departure of three guys ahead of him. This is a position of huge concern and if Isom gets hurt we could be horrendous . All due to the exodus to the portal.
 
Whether or not the kids who left ended up in better situations is irrelevant to the point I was making. The relevant question is whether or not our team would be better with this guys on the roster. I don't see how the team is better or deeper as a result of the transfer activity.

We've upgraded the QB spot with Guarantano providing more help to the team than Cruz would. Same for RB with Watson providing much needed depth and experience.

But WR? We've lost Tay Martin, Jamire Calvin, Rodrick Fisher, Kassidy Woods, and Lucas Bacon to the portal in the past 15 months. He's been replaced by Lincoln Victor. Would you rather have Lincoln Victor or Jamire Calvin as a back up slot receiver next year? Would Tay Martin or Rodrick Fisher fit into an outside receiver rotation better than Donovan Ollie or the walk ons who are rotating in the second string? While Lucas Bacon was no star, he was a better in case of emergency break glass option than who we'll have next year based on experience alone.

OL saw the departure of Hunter Mayginnes who had some experience. But his departure probably doesn't hurt due to the sheer number of bodies at the position.

On the DL, would you rather have Will Rodgers/Cosmas Kwete or Quinn Rolf as the #4 Edge?

LB and Corner have been boosted with the additions of Ben Wilson and Chris Jackson.

Safety depth has been decimated though. Hunter Escoria wouldn't be near the field if it hadn't been for the departure of three guys ahead of him. This is a position of huge concern and if Isom gets hurt we could be horrendous . All due to the exodus to the portal.

The Safety, Nickel, Dime, Secondary, and WR spots have been TRULY DECIMATED, by the Transfer Portal.

Tay Martin, Jamire Calvin, Rodrick Fisher would either be starters, semi situational starter, #1 back ups, at Ore St, Arizona, Colorado, etc.

Any time you lose 3 starters, situational starters, #1 back ups off one of the best WR Corps, in the Pac 12(#4), in the Nation(#13), is TRAGIC.

And Kassidy woods, if not for being toxic situation, would have been a situational #2 back up, in the 2 deep, or #2 in the 3 deep back up, would have been serviceable semi quality DEPTH.

Thats 4 WR, gone, that might even crush a USC, Texas, Oklahoma, type blue blood.

If that could crush a USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, etc, what would that do to WSU?

Luckily for WSU, WSU had one of the best WR Corps in the nation, so it MIGHT be able to survive the WR's leaving. And the NFL RB, would also help mitigate that WR loss, as far as not hurting the QB.

And Etown is right the Secondary is a disaster. Maybe thats Mitigateable by ball control running more, and maybe Rolo will run more to help save the Secondary.

That said, as bad as the Transfer Portal has been to WSU football, and a lot of that wasnt Rolo's fault, WSU should still win at least 5,6,7 games, because of Transfer QB, NFL OL, NFL RB, etc.

But if that had been one of the Bad WSU teams of the past that the Transfer Portal had hit so hard, WSU woukd have been lucky to win 1,2,3 games, and because of how bad the Transfer Portal has been to WSU, a only getting a 4 win team is still possible.

So yeah the Transfer Portal hasnt been good to WSU football.

Anybody who doesnt see that either has Flawed logic, or is illogical
 
I've seen plenty of buzz over how great the portal is going to be for WSU, but how much can we really expect to benefit from this change?

Basketball has had a transfer culture for a while now and this change has undoubtedly been a net negative for the Cougs. Losing players like Malachi Flynn plus numerous other players who could have given quality depth has hurt more than the relatively minor contributions from the transfers we've received over the years. I expect football to follow a similar path.

The narrative of gaining power 5 transfers while losing kids to lower levels seems to be taking root, including from Paul Sorenson who calls the portal the new JC. The big difference between the portal and JC is that JC's were never a superior option to playing at WSU. Kids were stuck their because of a lack of grades out of HS, getting booted for bad behavior, or they were late bloomers. The portal primarily consists of kids unable to lock down a starting job at a D1 school. All five of our portal kids (Guarantano, Wilson, Jackson, Watson, and Victor) fit this mold. Victor is of course a nice add as a walk on. The rest, however, are generating a ton of excitement based on their talent out of HS. It's safe to say none have lived up to their hype as recruits. My guess would be their prior fanbases aren't complaining about their departures either. I'd ballpark the success rate for portal kids at around 50% here. Some are going to thrive with a change of scenery or the opportunity to play but it's not going to work well for others.

But in exchange for these additions, we have to worry about starters hitting the portal in pursuit of a bigger stage. In an era where players can get paid for their likeness, I don't see how we come out well in this. The bigger issue is the exodus of depth. How many kids who would have been on the depth chart have we lost since Rolovich arrived? Cruz, Martin, Calvin, Woods, Bacon, Fisher, Mayginnes, Rodgers, McDougle, Kwete, Thomas, Ross, Nunn, Hector, and Mazza. That's a lot of experience to head out the door. While many of these guys might not have been stars, we would all be more comfortable with them on the roster should we have a starter go down. I'd hope to avoid situations where we avoid throwing kids onto the field without experience because they are a warm body.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see the path to success here as developing decent depth by keeping enough kids in the program for 4-5 years rather than using the portal/JC for half your class to fill holes.
I don't know how long the sample size has to be, but I suspect that it will (like most other things) erode what little depth there is a the middling and lower tier programs. We've yet to see the exodus from the likes of Bama/ Clemson/ USC as kids who were sold a bill of goods look to greener pastures for more PT; we have seen the exodus from middling schools from kids who are surrounded by sycophants and think they deserve more PT.

Another way to look at this is (and I stated this in another thread): if the portal was a threat to the big progarms then Saban would have already had it shut down. There will never be a lack of talent flocking to a blue blood program; even if kids did start leaving, there are 3 other 5 stars kids waiting on the bench. Our bench is filled with 2 star kids we are hoping develop into 3 or MAYBE 4 star kids, and those kids are leaving because their parents and Tracey Ford told them they will be pro's someday.
 
Whether or not the kids who left ended up in better situations is irrelevant to the point I was making. The relevant question is whether or not our team would be better with this guys on the roster. I don't see how the team is better or deeper as a result of the transfer activity.

We've upgraded the QB spot with Guarantano providing more help to the team than Cruz would. Same for RB with Watson providing much needed depth and experience.

But WR? We've lost Tay Martin, Jamire Calvin, Rodrick Fisher, Kassidy Woods, and Lucas Bacon to the portal in the past 15 months. He's been replaced by Lincoln Victor. Would you rather have Lincoln Victor or Jamire Calvin as a back up slot receiver next year? Would Tay Martin or Rodrick Fisher fit into an outside receiver rotation better than Donovan Ollie or the walk ons who are rotating in the second string? While Lucas Bacon was no star, he was a better in case of emergency break glass option than who we'll have next year based on experience alone.

OL saw the departure of Hunter Mayginnes who had some experience. But his departure probably doesn't hurt due to the sheer number of bodies at the position.

On the DL, would you rather have Will Rodgers/Cosmas Kwete or Quinn Rolf as the #4 Edge?

LB and Corner have been boosted with the additions of Ben Wilson and Chris Jackson.

Safety depth has been decimated though. Hunter Escoria wouldn't be near the field if it hadn't been for the departure of three guys ahead of him. This is a position of huge concern and if Isom gets hurt we could be horrendous . All due to the exodus to the portal.
Benedict Arnold Woods was not a loss; in fact, it was a net gain.
 
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