Early reports from a trial in Chicago indicate that Gilead’s drug Remdesivir is in fact effective in treating severely ill COVID patients. That’s very encouraging but the real game changer will be if it is shown to be effective for moderately and mildly ill patients - in other words can it keep them out of the hospital in the first place. That trial should be next month and last at least thirty days. But maybe - maybe, by mid June or July we can be headed out of the woods on this virus. That’s assuming we can ramp up testing by then so we know who to treat. By the way, if you are thinking about buying Gilead stock, it’s already too late. It’s up about 15 percent in after hours trading.
Possible light at the end of the tunnel
- Thread starter AncientCoug
- Start date
Damn, I guess I picked the wrong week to sell all my stock in Gliead Sciences, the company that makes Remdesivir.
I guess it doesn’t if you figure it will go up more. But given the uncertainties that remain, like pricing and whether the remaining trials are also positive, I think 15 percent is a pretty good pop.
Also, something to keep in mind is that this drug is an infusion not a pill which means treatment would most likely be in a clinic setting not at home. That adds to the cost and inconvenience.
Still, if it works, knowing they are unlikely to die or be hospitalized may give people enough confidence to start going about their normal lives.
IMO.... BUY BUY BUY! No better time to buy stock when the market is down. Buy those perennial guys that are *always* there. And not just the Coca Cola, Ford, WalMart, Pizza Hut (Yum!), etc. Buy while it's cheap, and reap the rewards when everything rebounds.
Ok, if I were younger and had available cash I probably would consider buying into most of those stocks over a period of several weeks or months. I would probably leave out Ford though. I think traditional automakers have some challenges that go beyond COVID and the virus has absolutely killed them for the short term. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the big 3 turn into the big 2 when the dust settles and it’s not clear Ford will be one of the winners.
A 15% up gap is nice, don’t get me wrong. But unless I’m in and out of the market daily or even hourly this has little significance unless I already owned the stock. One hiccup in clinical trials and that nice pre market gap will be meaningless.
A sign of our crazy times........Netflix passed Exxon/Mobile in market cap today.
I'm not sure what you mean by younger, but I'm just shy of 50 and not too far out from retirement (fingers crossed!).
For the record, I'm not suggesting pushing all funds into blue chips. But if you are still putting money into retirement, keep doing it and if you are putting any side funds, find those stocks that have always been long term and will survive. I think WalMart, Amazon, Target, and any of the other "big box" retailers will quickly and strongly rebound. In fact, just about any non-niche retailer will make it back I think. And I think certainly the Exxon, Chevron, and other energy companies that have seen a downturn due to dropping oil prices will rebound.
Everyone and their brother will be looking at buying Gilead tomorrow. I'm more interested in how the broader markets react tomorrow. We've already rallied a ton off the lows. Does it continue or is this an excuse for some of the smart money to sell?
You have some crowded coronavirus trades right now, Gilead is likely the next. I would look at what companies will do better if America gets back to work. Plenty of opportunities out there.
You have some crowded coronavirus trades right now, Gilead is likely the next. I would look at what companies will do better if America gets back to work. Plenty of opportunities out there.
I’ve got a couple of decades on you and am well into retirement so have a pretty conservative investment portfolio right now. But the 2008, 2009 recession happened when I was older than you are now. It made my retirement. I held what stocks and ETFs I already owned and was fortunate to have a substantial amount of cash that I invested near the market lows. So, I agree with what you are saying. Of course as the lawyers say, “past performance is not a guarantee of future returns”.
Too early for futures to mean much. 6am PST gives a better idea, but it's easy for a hedge fund to manipulate the futures.
Deciding whether to buy equities in the current market is really a bet on either a treatment emerging relatively soon or a vaccine being available in half the expected time (by Sept/Oct). Barring either, we are in for a pretty lengthy recession, in which case you have time to make up your mind. The longer this goes on, the lower the point at which stocks will bottom out. On the other hand, if any of 3 or 4 promising treatments work out (Remdesivir or any other), you will see a big rally starting the same day as the effective treatment announcement is made. An effective treatment could easily move the market up 25-30% in days.
So, to paraphrase Dirty Harry...are ya feelin' lucky, Punk?
So, to paraphrase Dirty Harry...are ya feelin' lucky, Punk?
Only if you’re looking to sell in 12-18 months. If you’re going to hold for longer, you’re buying on the dip.
This was a small study without a control group. It’s encouraging, but not definitive.
If you’re going to buy, don’t plan on holding it long. Pharm stocks tend to peak rapidly on news like this, and then crater overnight when they scale up the study and the results aren’t as good. And the bad results are way more common than good.
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