Situation recap/standing

[chugspig]

So right now BIG10 is waiting to see if Notre Dame accepts their invite. Notre Dame laid out an unobtainable set of circumstances to the ACC for them to join the ACC in hopes of forcing them out of the picture and allowing talks with the BIG10.

should ND join the BIG10 the next three are Stanford (who has said they will take unequal revenue to get in) UW and UO. BIG12 would then swoop AZ ASU Colorado and Utah.

Should ND not accept bid into BIG10, then the BIG10 may go after CU AZ ASU Utah etc. In that case the Big12 may look to add a western division including the WA and OR schools.

IF ND does accept, seems most likely Cal WSU and OSU will be joining the MWC, unless pac12 leadership can band aid the conference together with SDSU and Fresno.

I hope Schultz connections to Big12 can land WSU in that conference even if revenue sharing is unequal. May be our best hope.

 

[CougPatrol]

Apart from the unlikely scenario where WSU and Oregon State bandaid together a new P10 conference, we're likely Mountain West bound. The Big12 / P12 merger that's being discussed doesn't include WSU. Not the models I've been seeing.

 

[chugspig]

I think there may be some pull between WSU and Big12. But would have to be unequal rev. WSU now has the third biggest vet school in the nation and is very tied to KSU with the BSL 4 disease diagnostic lab. There are decent connections and Schultz has an in. Is it probable no, but I think there’s a chance they could make it happen.

 

[95coug]

Apart from the unlikely scenario where WSU and Oregon State bandaid together a new P10 conference, we're likely Mountain West bound. The Big12 / P12 merger that's being discussed doesn't include WSU. Not the models I've been seeing.

More and more projections show WSU, OSU, and possibly Cal left without a chair when the music stops. Based on the branding and marketing dynamics behind all this, that seems likely. We just don’t draw enough interest from a wide enough swath.

In semi-positive news though, it may only last a few years. The move toward super conferences with marquee matchups every week will also result in the lesser teams getting cut loose. Purdue, Vanderbilt, and similar will be first. If the Big 12 picks up UA & ASU, they’ll drop them when the ACC opens up, and replace them with FSU and Miami.

I don’t think the superconferences are going to be 30-40 teams, I think they’ll be 20-24. There may be 3 for a while, but I think it’ll end up with 2. The powers are already consolidating into 2. The remaining ~80 teams will probably get lumped into 4 more 20-team conferences and will almost certainly be forced into playing tier 1 schools, so that the top divisions don’t beat each other up. Then they’ll be able to justify more easily why the lower conferences only get 2 of 16 playoff berths, never seeded in the top half.

10 of the existing bowls will be used as playoff games, plus continuing the rotation of semifinals through the big 4 NY games - I don’t think they’ll keep 6. Initially, they’ll have a full slate of bowl games for the teams who win 6, but it’ll quickly become clear that only a couple of these have an audience. Nobody cares what happens with a 7-5 team from tier 2. Bowls will fold, the number of berths will shrink, and in a few years you’ll have to be 9-3 in a tier 2 conference to even be considered for the opportunity to play against a 6-6 tier 1 team in what’s essentially a home game for them. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a rule modification that has tier 2 teams who finish above .500 “encouraged” to schedule post-season games against other tier 2 teams…at their expense…and ESPN or Fox retains the right to broadcast it regionally if they like the matchup.



This is college football, as brought to you by the corporate media overlords.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

More and more projections show WSU, OSU, and possibly Cal left without a chair when the music stops. Based on the branding and marketing dynamics behind all this, that seems likely. We just don’t draw enough interest from a wide enough swath.

In semi-positive news though, it may only last a few years. The move toward super conferences with marquee matchups every week will also result in the lesser teams getting cut loose. Purdue, Vanderbilt, and similar will be first. If the Big 12 picks up UA & ASU, they’ll drop them when the ACC opens up, and replace them with FSU and Miami.

I don’t think the superconferences are going to be 30-40 teams, I think they’ll be 20-24. There may be 3 for a while, but I think it’ll end up with 2. The powers are already consolidating into 2. The remaining ~80 teams will probably get lumped into 4 more 20-team conferences and will almost certainly be forced into playing tier 1 schools, so that the top divisions don’t beat each other up. Then they’ll be able to justify more easily why the lower conferences only get 2 of 16 playoff berths, never seeded in the top half.

10 of the existing bowls will be used as playoff games, plus continuing the rotation of semifinals through the big 4 NY games - I don’t think they’ll keep 6. Initially, they’ll have a full slate of bowl games for the teams who win 6, but it’ll quickly become clear that only a couple of these have an audience. Nobody cares what happens with a 7-5 team from tier 2. Bowls will fold, the number of berths will shrink, and in a few years you’ll have to be 9-3 in a tier 2 conference to even be considered for the opportunity to play against a 6-6 tier 1 team in what’s essentially a home game for them. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a rule modification that has tier 2 teams who finish above .500 “encouraged” to schedule post-season games against other tier 2 teams…at their expense…and ESPN or Fox retains the right to broadcast it regionally if they like the matchup.



This is college football, as brought to you by the corporate media overlords.

You can't blame the corporate media...even if I detest these corrupt liars.

The conference presidents, despite all their high-handed talk about academics and the "student-athlete", care about one thing...and that is money.

All other things are noise. Big money brings big corruption....every time.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

So right now BIG10 is waiting to see if Notre Dame accepts their invite. Notre Dame laid out an unobtainable set of circumstances to the ACC for them to join the ACC in hopes of forcing them out of the picture and allowing talks with the BIG10.

should ND join the BIG10 the next three are Stanford (who has said they will take unequal revenue to get in) UW and UO. BIG12 would then swoop AZ ASU Colorado and Utah.

Should ND not accept bid into BIG10, then the BIG10 may go after CU AZ ASU Utah etc. In that case the Big12 may look to add a western division including the WA and OR schools.

IF ND does accept, seems most likely Cal WSU and OSU will be joining the MWC, unless pac12 leadership can band aid the conference together with SDSU and Fresno.

I hope Schultz connections to Big12 can land WSU in that conference even if revenue sharing is unequal. May be our best hope.

How much of that is conjecture vs fact?

 

[chugspig]

How much of that is conjecture vs fact?

It’s almost all “speculative” based on dozens of Twitter reports. No one, including the schools and networks are saying anything. But it’s basically accepted from most outlets that’s the way things are lined up at this point. And the sources that keep putting out this info continue to be right.

 

[CougInSpain]

Since change is always inevitable, I would like to see the following play out for the PAC: Align with the Big 12 for a conference merger but maintain conference identity with a possible re-branding effort. Go with something like PacWest vs BigEast. Since 10 teams already exist in the Big12, there would be no need to add 2 more schools to fill that gap. We would lose some footing in the LA as far as recruits go but what we may lose in LA, we gain exponentially in TX and surrounding areas.

As far as the media aspect of all this, that will be a more difficult task when trying to incorporate with the Big12. Can it be done? Sure, but not without a lot of speculation and damage control.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

More and more projections show WSU, OSU, and possibly Cal left without a chair when the music stops. Based on the branding and marketing dynamics behind all this, that seems likely. We just don’t draw enough interest from a wide enough swath.

In semi-positive news though, it may only last a few years. The move toward super conferences with marquee matchups every week will also result in the lesser teams getting cut loose. Purdue, Vanderbilt, and similar will be first. If the Big 12 picks up UA & ASU, they’ll drop them when the ACC opens up, and replace them with FSU and Miami.

I don’t think the superconferences are going to be 30-40 teams, I think they’ll be 20-24. There may be 3 for a while, but I think it’ll end up with 2. The powers are already consolidating into 2. The remaining ~80 teams will probably get lumped into 4 more 20-team conferences and will almost certainly be forced into playing tier 1 schools, so that the top divisions don’t beat each other up. Then they’ll be able to justify more easily why the lower conferences only get 2 of 16 playoff berths, never seeded in the top half.

10 of the existing bowls will be used as playoff games, plus continuing the rotation of semifinals through the big 4 NY games - I don’t think they’ll keep 6. Initially, they’ll have a full slate of bowl games for the teams who win 6, but it’ll quickly become clear that only a couple of these have an audience. Nobody cares what happens with a 7-5 team from tier 2. Bowls will fold, the number of berths will shrink, and in a few years you’ll have to be 9-3 in a tier 2 conference to even be considered for the opportunity to play against a 6-6 tier 1 team in what’s essentially a home game for them. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a rule modification that has tier 2 teams who finish above .500 “encouraged” to schedule post-season games against other tier 2 teams…at their expense…and ESPN or Fox retains the right to broadcast it regionally if they like the matchup.



This is college football, as brought to you by the corporate media overlords.

After reading this again today, I see the teams that remain in the FBS grouping will end up in 5 or 6 regional conferences with 12 or 16 teams that end up following more traditional rivalries. Less money means that travelling huge distances becomes unaffordable for the "Olympic" sports teams. 20 team leagues are just too damned big. That said, the West is so sprawling that maybe it doesn't matter.

 

[CougPatrol]

I expect the P12 will consider betting heavy on streaming services and create a model that deviates from the Network super conferences. Keep as many current member schools as you can and sell some others on the advantages of being a West coast conference Leverage the Hell out of Amazon be proactive about the future.

 

[roses04]

Just let me know when it's over. Half these schools are lying, many are working deals behind each others back. ESPN has become the evil empire, and Fox Sports isn't to far behind. I do think some of the lesser teams in the Big 10 and SEC will be let go, but on the other hand the "super teams" like to pad their schedule with wins, so they can't let them all go, unless the networks tell them to because ratings. There was a movie by the name of Network, came out in the mid 70's staring Faye Dunaway, William Holden, Peter Finch and Robert Duvall. In summary it went over the top with the lengths the Network went through for ratings, switching things up every week. It is where the famous Peter Lynch line in the movie came from " I am Mad as Hell and I am not going to take it anymore". Which sums up how I feel about all this conference shuffling going on. IMO the Golden Era of college sports is over, and the fun and enjoyment and passion we had supporting our teams who ever that college team might be, is over for many, and it was all ruined over money and ratings.

 

[95coug]

After reading this again today, I see the teams that remain in the FBS grouping will end up in 5 or 6 regional conferences with 12 or 16 teams that end up following more traditional rivalries. Less money means that travelling huge distances becomes unaffordable for the "Olympic" sports teams. 20 team leagues are just too damned big. That said, the West is so sprawling that maybe it doesn't matter.

I don’t disagree. But I think they’ll align regionally for lesser sports - with some inter-regional play - and less so for football. They’ll set it up so that there’s a “marquee” game every week. Each power team will be in a grouping with teams they can beat, but still sells subscriptions, and then they’ll play their major rival and a historical power every year.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Just let me know when it's over. Half these schools are lying, many are working deals behind each others back. ESPN has become the evil empire, and Fox Sports isn't to far behind. I do think some of the lesser teams in the Big 10 and SEC will be let go, but on the other hand the "super teams" like to pad their schedule with wins, so they can't let them all go, unless the networks tell them to because ratings. There was a movie by the name of Network, came out in the mid 70's staring Faye Dunaway, William Holden, Peter Finch and Robert Duvall. In summary it went over the top with the lengths the Network went through for ratings, switching things up every week. It is where the famous Peter Lynch line in the movie came from " I am Mad as Hell and I am not going to take it anymore". Which sums up how I feel about all this conference shuffling going on. IMO the Golden Era of college sports is over, and the fun and enjoyment and passion we had supporting our teams who ever that college team might be, is over for many, and it was all ruined over money and ratings.

Top tv dollars come with top tv games. If eyes and ratings are what drives dollars, these schools are gonna have to play top teams every week. Room for a turd or two? Only if their schools are spending $100,000,000 on athletics. This isnt going to be the poor school super league. You need to be spending $$$ to get in.

 

[roses04]

Top tv dollars come with top tv games. If eyes and ratings are what drives dollars, these schools are gonna have to play top teams every week. Room for a turd or two? Only if their schools are spending $100,000,000 on athletics. This isnt going to be the poor school super league. You need to be spending $$$ to get in.

Agreed, but that leaves you with 25-30 teams?

 

[longtimecoug]

You can't blame the corporate media...even if I detest these corrupt liars.

The conference presidents, despite all their high-handed talk about academics and the "student-athlete", care about one thing...and that is money.

All other things are noise. Big money brings big corruption....every time.

It’s almost all “speculative” based on dozens of Twitter reports. No one, including the schools and networks are saying anything. But it’s basically accepted from most outlets that’s the way things are lined up at this point. And the sources that keep putting out this info continue to be right.

So its conjecture but its accepted? By whom? Each article i read is pure speculation

 

[chugspig]

So its conjecture but its accepted? By whom? Each article i read is pure speculation

There is a Twitter account that has been correct on basically everything. I believe a Michigan insider.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Agreed, but that leaves you with 25-30 teams?

Im guessing 32….. and following the NFL’s blueprint…

 

[Wazzubrooz]

It needs to include all the Power 5 teams, to make and keep it fun. I for sure see a time coming where many of us will say screw it and turn off the tv and refrain from buying season tickets.

 

[dgibbons]

So right now BIG10 is waiting to see if Notre Dame accepts their invite. Notre Dame laid out an unobtainable set of circumstances to the ACC for them to join the ACC in hopes of forcing them out of the picture and allowing talks with the BIG10.

should ND join the BIG10 the next three are Stanford (who has said they will take unequal revenue to get in) UW and UO. BIG12 would then swoop AZ ASU Colorado and Utah.

Should ND not accept bid into BIG10, then the BIG10 may go after CU AZ ASU Utah etc. In that case the Big12 may look to add a western division including the WA and OR schools.

IF ND does accept, seems most likely Cal WSU and OSU will be joining the MWC, unless pac12 leadership can band aid the conference together with SDSU and Fresno.

I hope Schultz connections to Big12 can land WSU in that conference even if revenue sharing is unequal. May be our best hope.

The Big XII is deader than the Pac-12.