The case for Fresno and SDSU to backfill LA schools

[ttowncoug]

Pac-12 hopes for ACC merger, but if it fails, Fresno State is an expansion option

Jon Wilner isn’t bullish on the Pac-12 expanding through the Mountain West, but he does bring up an interesting point about the Fresno market.

trojanswire.usatoday.com

Shores up So. Cal. Fresno could "host" a game or two in SoFi. Gives the conference options and exposure the region - which we need.

 

[roses04]

Lipstick on a pig

 

[95coug]

Sure. 6.5 million in the Central Valley, and they root for the home team. But outside the valley….nothing.

Same can be said for SDSU, but they’re squarely in a recruiting ground and San Diego>Fresno (the cities) in just about every way.

I think those would be the top 2 targets for expansion, if it’s necessary. SDSU as #1, Fresno as a distant second. Boise State isn’t even in my top 10, they don’t bring enough to the table. And we don’t need to come out of this with another arrogant & entitled fan base. UW and UO will probably be even worse when this ends.

 

[ttowncoug]

TV numbers wise those 2 pigs are better than wsu. We need to start confronting the reality on where the train is headed.

 

[TrumpCoug]

I just listened to John Canzano on "the podcast of champions" currently on Brand Woke. Fast forward to the 22 minute mark so you don't have to listen to the ass clowns running the podcast. He brings up some great points/ideas, worth the listen.

Pac 12 currently has 12mm household viewers (after LA schools left)
Big 12 currently has 15mm household viewers
ACC currently has 28mm household viewers

JC states the PAC12 forming a "loose partnership" with the ACC makes the most sense since ESPN will be highly motivated after what Fox just did with with LA schools. ESPN now needs to get into the Pacific time zone.

He added that on top of forming the partnership with the ACC, adding SDSU (household viewers 1.1mm) and Houston, Baylor and SMU to the Pac12 (DFW has 5.5mm household viewers)

Lots of moving pieces but this sounds like a winning formula to me.

 

[BiggsCoug]

TV numbers wise those 2 pigs are better than wsu. We need to start confronting the reality on where the train is headed.

This is the first round of cuts for the Super League. There will be another round.

WSU needs to stay as relevant as possible, win as many games as possible by as wide a margin as possible. At some point the other left out P5 teams will be looking to form a conference of their own. That’s likely where WSU is headed and needs to be.

Which is why I push back against joining the Mtn West. Once WSU drops to G5, will they get back to P5??? Not a risk I’d take. Even if there are more P10 teams that leave and there are some that stay, keep the brand name and stay in the league.

 

[CougPatrol]

This is the first round of cuts for the Super League. There will be another round.

WSU needs to stay as relevant as possible, win as many games as possible by as wide a margin as possible. At some point the other left out P5 teams will be looking to form a conference of their own. That’s likely where WSU is headed and needs to be.

Which is why I push back against joining the Mtn West. Once WSU drops to G5, will they get back to P5??? Not a risk I’d take. Even if there are more P10 teams that leave and there are some that stay, keep the brand name and stay in the league.

Agree with you an staving off the Mtn West for now, but moving forward, I don't think there will be a P5 / G5. You're going to have, as you said, a super league and then a tier 2 of programs who didn't make the cut. If established properly, I think the tier 2 could become more popular than the super league; particularly out West where people don't have the NIL, football is religion, win at all costs mentality.

Form a best of the rest league with 50 programs and negotiate a media deal of your own. Then extend a middle finger at the super league teams who grow tired of being punching bags for the top-15 programs that shell out millions of NIL dollars to land their recruiting classes.

 

[ttowncoug]

I agree with CP. A competitive west coast - whomever wants to be in - with good action and good TV match-ups is what is best for the student athletes in this region.

Whomever is in the league with us, so be it.

The TV stuff will work itself out. We aren't going to be on the 5pm Fox national broadcast or the 5pm ABC/ESPN broadcast, which will pay more. We will be on the 730 broadcast and the 6PM Friday broadcast, etc.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

In the long run, I believe that we are going to find a status quo where the teams that didn't make the cut into the "super conferences" do lose a handful of players per year to the NIL/Transfer Portal but there will be a commiserate number of guys who are getting booted from those other teams because they didn't meet expectations, oftentimes for no reason other than they didn't mesh with the coaching staff. There will be plenty of Gardner Minshews available for coaches with an eye for talent.

 

[BiggsCoug]

I agree with CP. A competitive west coast - whomever wants to be in - with good action and good TV match-ups is what is best for the student athletes in this region.

Whomever is in the league with us, so be it.

The TV stuff will work itself out. We aren't going to be on the 5pm Fox national broadcast or the 5pm ABC/ESPN broadcast, which will pay more. We will be on the 730 broadcast and the 6PM Friday broadcast, etc.

Focus on the quality of product, the development of talent and putting kids in the NFL.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

In the long run, I believe that we are going to find a status quo where the teams that didn't make the cut into the "super conferences" do lose a handful of players per year to the NIL/Transfer Portal but there will be a commiserate number of guys who are getting booted from those other teams because they didn't meet expectations, oftentimes for no reason other than they didn't mesh with the coaching staff. There will be plenty of Gardner Minshews available for coaches with an eye for talent.

Agree on the transfer math & opportunities, unless the ground rules are once again changed.

Regardless of the league future, the transfer out/transfer in situation is likely to remain balanced.

 

[mikalalas]

Are you guys oblivious, living in your caves about the news that Sports Illustrated Reported, that I posted in a new thread.

Sports Illustrated is reporting that ACC, Pac 12, ESPN insiders are saying that even as we here speak ACC, Pac 12, ESPN is brokering a new binding Alliance, new joint ESPN Media deal, covering both the ACC/Pac 12, that ACC/Pac 12 split the media deal money, then divvy it up to there conference members.

They will play their conference games, and play intra conference, non con games, and the alliance forbids either conference from raiding each other.

Pac 12 is going to get some Big 12 teams, add some MWC teams, won't have any more teams leave, will eventually Merge(alliance, media deal is just first step to that), with ACC, will eventually absorb most of Big 12, will have Rosebowl, will become a 24 to 40 team tier 1.25 P3 super conference, only slightly behind Big 10, SEC, with a seat at the expanded playoffs table, with a big time media deal, etc.

 

[COUGinNCW]

Pac-12 hopes for ACC merger, but if it fails, Fresno State is an expansion option

Jon Wilner isn’t bullish on the Pac-12 expanding through the Mountain West, but he does bring up an interesting point about the Fresno market.

trojanswire.usatoday.com

Shores up So. Cal. Fresno could "host" a game or two in SoFi. Gives the conference options and exposure the region - which we need.

If they can pull off the ACC alliance - Kickoff Classics (ACc vs PAC team) and basketball tournies in LA would make a lot of sense.

 

[TrumpCoug]

What a Merger of the Pac-12 and ACC Might Look Like

Several format options exist for a bicoastal conference that might save Cal and the remaining Pac-12 teams

www.si.com

I like this line up.

West Division
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Arizona State
Washington State
Oregon State

Mid East Division
Utah
Colorado
Louisville
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Virginia
Virginia Tech

South East Division
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Miami
Florida State

 

[triscuit one]

I grew up for a bit in ACC country, but truthfully the ACC v Pac doesnt move the needle for me. If it help WSU and the Pac im all fo rit, but would rather see match up with the Big 12.

 

[mikalalas]

What a Merger of the Pac-12 and ACC Might Look Like

Several format options exist for a bicoastal conference that might save Cal and the remaining Pac-12 teams

www.si.com

I like this line up.

West Division
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Washington
Arizona
Arizona State
Washington State
Oregon State

Mid East Division
Utah
Colorado
Louisville
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Boston College
Virginia
Virginia Tech

South East Division
Clemson
Duke
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Miami
Florida State

That would be 1 hell of a awesome new super conference merger. That conference would have the Rosebowl, 1,2,3 auto bids to the playoffs, 1,2,3 at large bids to the play offs, and would have awesome, extremely lucrative, about 65 million per team ESPN media deal.

And then that new conference merger would get the Following 10 teams from Big 12:

1. Ok St.

2. TCU

3. Baylor.

4. BYU.

5. Kansas.

6. KSU

7. Texas Tech.

8. Houston.

9. Cincinnati.

10. UCF

Would grab SDSU, BSU, UNLV, Airforce, Fresno St. from MWC.

And grab Gonzaga from WCC

That would make for a 40 team conference, with 4, 10 team divisions that would be pretty much equal to Big 10, but NOT the SEC.

Iowa St would probably be left out.

But if Gonzaga didn't join, Iowa St would probably get in Gonzaga's place.

No Pac 12 team would jeopardize that, wouldn't give up that possibility, wouldn't join the Big 12, have the Pac 12 die, before this new conference merger could happen.

I think is not just a possibility, but will eventually happen, and the only way to counter, rival what the Big 10, SEC is doing.

And no team would leave that for Big 10, SEC, because of the 65 million per team media deal, and because until 2036 the GRANT OF RIGHTS would stop any defections, because the GRANT OF RIGHTS says the get no money from ESPN deal, if they leave, and get no money from Big 10, SEC, if they join Big 10, and SEC. And they renew the GRANTS OF RIGHTS after 2036.

 

[mikalalas]

I grew up for a bit in ACC country, but truthfully the ACC v Pac doesnt move the needle for me. If it help WSU and the Pac im all fo rit, but would rather see match up with the Big 12.

Big 12 doesn't want to do that, merge, become allies, etc. They want to target Pac 12 leave WSU/Ore St, maybe Cal in Pac 12 behind, thus killing Pac 12.

Because of that Big 12 is enemy #1, and Pac 12 needs to FORCE, ABSORB, KILL OFF big 12 by joining ACC, forming a super conference, then absorbing Big 12.

If Pac 12 doesn't do that, Pac 12 is DEAD.

BIG 12 MUST DIE OR PAC 12 WILL DIE. Big 10, and Big 12 has forced that.

Pac 12's only friend is the ACC, that brokering a binding Alliance, joint media deal with ESPN, and then eventually merging, forming a super conference, absorbing Big 12, picking up best of MWC, and maybe getting Gonzaga.

Partnering with Big 12 first is probably not an option now.

 

[TrumpCoug]

I grew up for a bit in ACC country, but truthfully the ACC v Pac doesnt move the needle for me. If it help WSU and the Pac im all fo rit, but would rather see match up with the Big 12.

The $$$$ is in the ACC not the Big XII. After all, it is about the $$, saying otherwise makes one drunk, fat and stupid and that is no way to go through life.

 

[CougFan1980]

We will most likely add SMU and SDSU because of the media market value but religion affiliation might hold back adding a school like SMU or Baylor which is one of the resons BYU isn't in the Pac 12. Hopefully, the media deal with ESPN works out for both sides, and the schools stick together and keep the conference intact. I don't want to go to the MWC a more diluted league Going to the Big 12 or ACC isn't a huge upgrade either!

 

[roses04]

I'd rather add Fresno St than SMU, Student population is about 24,000 versus 11,000 for SMU, not sure how large of an alumni following SMU has. Fresno is 3 hours from the Bay Area and 3 hours from LA area, it's in the same time zone, and less travel. I'd be OK with SMU nothing against it, just not sure how much of Dallas SMU pulls in. Interesting to hear Coach Smith's comments on UCLA and USC leaving, said he wouldn't be surprised if they come back a few years down the road. Said the travel schedule was going to cause them a lot of problems. Who knows where this all ends up, but I do think if the "pac10" teams, that are left, simply stick together, and add 2-4 quality schools in the right locations it can work, I also think a merger of the Pac and ACC has protentional. Must of the negative stuff you hear is coming out of the Big 12, they are still but hurt that the Pac shut them out a year ago, and now that they are adding 4-6 teams they think they are in charge. Texas and Oklahoma have made that league along with Nebraska over the years. Sure the Pac just lost the LA schools, but I do think the impact is less than the losses the Big 12 has suffered. The Pac 12 has academic standards, so just adding anyone because of a football program isn't a great plan, like Boise St. Everyone talks about Notre Dame joining the Big10, what if the Pac 10 pulled in Notre Dame, if they are looking for a path to the NC, the pac 12 is an easier route than the Big 10 or ACC. I am sure it will never happen, but who would have thought we'd be where we are today.

 

[Stretch 74]

I'd rather add Fresno St than SMU, Student population is about 24,000 versus 11,000 for SMU, not sure how large of an alumni following SMU has. Fresno is 3 hours from the Bay Area and 3 hours from LA area, it's in the same time zone, and less travel. I'd be OK with SMU nothing against it, just not sure how much of Dallas SMU pulls in. Interesting to hear Coach Smith's comments on UCLA and USC leaving, said he wouldn't be surprised if they come back a few years down the road. Said the travel schedule was going to cause them a lot of problems. Who knows where this all ends up, but I do think if the "pac10" teams, that are left, simply stick together, and add 2-4 quality schools in the right locations it can work, I also think a merger of the Pac and ACC has protentional. Must of the negative stuff you hear is coming out of the Big 12, they are still but hurt that the Pac shut them out a year ago, and now that they are adding 4-6 teams they think they are in charge. Texas and Oklahoma have made that league along with Nebraska over the years. Sure the Pac just lost the LA schools, but I do think the impact is less than the losses the Big 12 has suffered. The Pac 12 has academic standards, so just adding anyone because of a football program isn't a great plan, like Boise St. Everyone talks about Notre Dame joining the Big10, what if the Pac 10 pulled in Notre Dame, if they are looking for a path to the NC, the pac 12 is an easier route than the Big 10 or ACC. I am sure it will never happen, but who would have thought we'd be where we are today.

There is a lot of talk out there about how the PAC has "lost" the LA market, but have we really lost it? Just like ~half of WSU alumni are in western Washington, giving WSU a chunk of the Seattle TV market, aren't there a lot of PAC school's alumni other than USC/UCLA living and working in the greater LA area? I have to think there are a lot of them. So what are the TV ratings for the LA market for games other than the two traitor schools? I just don't think the PAC completely loses that market, but certainly the other PAC games would expect lower ratings but would still be a positive for the PAC.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

We will most likely add SMU and SDSU because of the media market value but religion affiliation might hold back adding a school like SMU or Baylor which is one of the resons BYU isn't in the Pac 12. Hopefully, the media deal with ESPN works out for both sides, and the schools stick together and keep the conference intact. I don't want to go to the MWC a more diluted league Going to the Big 12 or ACC isn't a huge upgrade either!

I’d rather the Cougs go to the MWC than the big 12. Just sayin.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I’d rather the Cougs go to the MWC than the big 12. Just sayin.

I would much rather see the Cougs in some kind of Pac-12/Big 12 merger than the MWC. The Mountain West champ gets stuck playing the 6th best team from the Pac-12. If the Pac-12 craters, they'd probably get a slightly better situation....but at the end of the day, the TV money and bowl tie-ins for the MWC suck donkey balls.

Life will go on if we end up in the MWC, but it will not be anything to be all that excited about.

 

[Coug90]

There is a lot of talk out there about how the PAC has "lost" the LA market, but have we really lost it? Just like ~half of WSU alumni are in western Washington, giving WSU a chunk of the Seattle TV market, aren't there a lot of PAC school's alumni other than USC/UCLA living and working in the greater LA area? I have to think there are a lot of them. So what are the TV ratings for the LA market for games other than the two traitor schools? I just don't think the PAC completely loses that market, but certainly the other PAC games would expect lower ratings but would still be a positive for the PAC.

USC and UCLA lost the LA market by being soft and underachieving for years.

 

[CougPatrol]

Unfortunately, we all had better start preparing for the MWC reality, because money is going to win out. It always does.

If the remaining P10 programs sign a $25-$30M deal with ESPN, and the B10 offers UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal a prorated membership worth $50M, they’re going to take it. There’s no question about it.

 

[425cougfan]

Unfortunately, we all had better start preparing for the MWC reality, because money is going to win out. It always does.

If the remaining P10 programs sign a $25-$30M deal with ESPN, and the B10 offers UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal a prorated membership worth $50M, they’re going to take it. There’s no question about it.

I don't know about the MWC, per se, but on the more general point, I agree money will win out eventually. I don't see any real path for it to be sustainable for the Pac-12 or some other kind of second-tier conference below the superconferences long-term, at least in terms of trying to keep schools like UW or Oregon around if they have other options. You might start having to get into things like unequal rev shares, which has never worked out either, and which would suck from a competitiveness standpoint.

The Big Ten currently budgets about $57m per school per year with its media deal, and it is anticipated to announce a new deal any day now that is rumored to be up to $80m per school per year or more. Even if ESPN low-balled its initial proposal to the Pac-12--I see no reason why it wouldn't have--and the Pac-12 actually can manage to get, say, $40m per year per school, almost twice as much as the initial offer and at the upper end of reasonable expectations, it's hard to see any realistic scenario in which UW and Oregon just accept getting half the TV revenues per year of Big Ten schools.

 

[CougInSpain]

Unfortunately, we all had better start preparing for the MWC reality, because money is going to win out. It always does.

If the remaining P10 programs sign a $25-$30M deal with ESPN, and the B10 offers UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal a prorated membership worth $50M, they’re going to take it. There’s no question about it.

Do you think that actual viewership won't be taken into consideration? WSU draws more eyes to the TV than does Stanford and Cal combined (I maybe exaggerating here but the point remains). Cal is damn near the bottom of the Pac in terms in overall viewership. The only thing they have to hang their hat on is Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson and "The Game". They haven't gone to the RoseBowl since 1959. We have certified national recognition and great branding.

 

[triscuit one]

The rumors of the Big 10 wanting UW, Oregon, Stanford and Cal and Commissioner Warren not shooting down the idea while talking about the conference being "bold" and "aggressive", could help the Pac's negotiations. If the Big 10 takes all 6 school (eventually) Fox will own the West for the most part. Best ESPN could hope for is an expanded Big 12 (Pac Mountian schools) with a bunch of mid-tier programs that no one watches.

 

[CougPatrol]

Do you think that actual viewership won't be taken into consideration? WSU draws more eyes to the TV than does Stanford and Cal combined (I maybe exaggerating here but the point remains). Cal is damn near the bottom of the Pac in terms in overall viewership. The only thing they have to hang their hat on is Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson and "The Game". They haven't gone to the RoseBowl since 1959. We have certified national recognition and great branding.

I think viewership matters to a point, but Cal holds more big chips than we do. They're a significantly better academic school, their athletic department is more well rounded top-to-bottom than ours is, and most importantly, they're located in more geographically friendly area than we are.

If you held a secret ballot amongst current B10 football coaches and AD's, they'd rather see Cal join than us. Trips to the Bay Area are easier, and their team is softer than ours is. Nobody wants to go to Pullman to play. I don't think you can underscore that enough, unfortunately.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Do you think that actual viewership won't be taken into consideration? WSU draws more eyes to the TV than does Stanford and Cal combined (I maybe exaggerating here but the point remains). Cal is damn near the bottom of the Pac in terms in overall viewership. The only thing they have to hang their hat on is Aaron Rodgers, DeSean Jackson and "The Game". They haven't gone to the RoseBowl since 1959. We have certified national recognition and great branding.

The execs making decisions likely ignore actual tv ratings and focus on "potential" because it's easier and requires less concern about short term vs long term trends. Cal could get hot and become attractive to watch to more of the millions of viewers in their footprint. WSU's ceiling is a lot lower.

What really sucks for WSU is that in terms of high level success, we compare very well against teams in the 26th to 50th range of win percentage....but we have had a lot of years where when we were bad....we were really bad. That even happened under Price in the last half of his career. Leach almost escaped without regressing but anyone who watched that 2019 squad knows that we weren't as good as we could have...or maybe should have, been. We've had a decent number of Top 10 finishes in the past 25 or so years and plenty of seasons where we weren't far off the mark, but too many clunkers.

Lame as UW's "non-losing" streak was while it lasted, it was something that they could hang their hat on.

 

[mikalalas]

Unfortunately, we all had better start preparing for the MWC reality, because money is going to win out. It always does.

If the remaining P10 programs sign a $25-$30M deal with ESPN, and the B10 offers UW, UO, Stanford, and Cal a prorated membership worth $50M, they’re going to take it. There’s no question about it.

CREDIBLE Big 10, and Pac 12, and Oregon, and UW, and Stanford INSIDERS have told CREDIBLE news sources(Sports Illustrated, CBS, Dodd, etc), that:

1. The Big 10 is not interested in Oregon, UW, let alone Stanford, let alone Cal, because none of them provide sufficient value.

2. Oregon, UW were told that.

3. Even at a prorated 50 million, which less then the SHET level Northwestern's(The duke, Kentucky, Ore St of Big 10), 100 million that Northwestern get under the new Big 10 media deal, Oregon, UW not worth enough, not bring enough value to Big 10, for the Big 10, to take Oregon, UW.

4. That 25 million ESPN deal was just the OPENING low, NEGOTIABLE number.

5. That 25 million number is for the Pac 10. If the Pac 10 gets SDSU, there will be more then 25 million.

6. There is the Pac 12/ACC joint media Alliance worth about 50 to 55 to 60;million per school in the ACC and in the Pac 12.

7. The Big 10 is going to take Oregon, UW, etc, IS JUST TYPICAL NONCREDIBLE SPECULATION, RUMOR, REGURGITATED, WITHOUT SOURCES, ETC, EVER SINCE UCLA, USC ANNOUNCED LEAVING.

no need to believe or repeat the Big 10 is going to take Oregon, UW, DRIVEL

 

[CougInSpain]

I think viewership matters to a point, but Cal holds more big chips than we do. They're a significantly better academic school, their athletic department is more well rounded top-to-bottom than ours is, and most importantly, they're located in more geographically friendly area than we are.

If you held a secret ballot amongst current B10 football coaches and AD's, they'd rather see Cal join than us. Trips to the Bay Area are easier, and their team is softer than ours is. Nobody wants to go to Pullman to play. I don't think you can underscore that enough, unfortunately.

I agree with most of this and have considered these known variables but was trying to make the case of why WSU should be considered. My only rebuttal to your statement would be that CFB is the catalyst to university athletic dollars and if I was evaluating how a team contributed monetarily to their conference, I'd say that WSU handily beats out both Stanford and Cal over the last 10 years.

 

[250vertical]

Don't worry - for now - about the backyard (Washington, Oregon, Cal, Stanford). Keep a strong hold on Arizona and its elite BB program, which would thrive in the Big 12 with Kansas - current national champions, Baylor, 2021 national champions, Houston - very solid program, and other decent programs. Does Arizona feel any connection to the Northwest Pac now that the two Southern California giants are gone? This could be the university that the Big 12 tries to pry loose, and if the money is there...they gone. Hard to say what Colorado would do. They won't want to go back to the Big 12...but. These two are the primary Big 12 targets.

 

[CougSinceBirth]

I'd rather see the conference go the streaming route.

ESPN and FOX are going to implode at some point. They won't be able to deliver on that funding.