Transfer Analytics

[Flatlandcoug]

Interesting website with a lot of information about transfers from around the country. The author doesn't do much, if any, deep diving into specific players or coaching situations but they do provide some insight into who's getting hit hardest by transfers and some theories why.

Transfer Portal Analytics

Interestingly enough, WSU is in the bottom half of the league when it comes to transfers but we've had an above average number of players enter the portal and stay. My suspicion is that we've had guys who thought that they were better than they were and couldn't find a better off than WSU and chose to stay.....but I'm probably wrong. Regardless, interesting site.

 

[Black Bart the Pirate]

Thanks, interesting stuff

 

[M-I-Coug]

Interesting website with a lot of information about transfers from around the country. The author doesn't do much, if any, deep diving into specific players or coaching situations but they do provide some insight into who's getting hit hardest by transfers and some theories why.

Transfer Portal Analytics

Interestingly enough, WSU is in the bottom half of the league when it comes to transfers but we've had an above average number of players enter the portal and stay. My suspicion is that we've had guys who thought that they were better than they were and couldn't find a better off than WSU and chose to stay.....but I'm probably wrong. Regardless, interesting site.

Interesting. Thanks for posting.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

For those that haven't looked at the site, it confirms a lot of what you already know and it had some interesting observations.

As you'd expect, more talented players are more likely to transfer if they don't get playing time than their less talented brethren. However, five star players were less likely to transfer than four star players.

Power 5 transfers were basically evenly split on where they went. Just over 1/3rd went to other Power 5 teams, just over 1/3rd went to Group of 5 teams and just under 1/3rd ended up at lower level schools or not playing at all. Only around 1 in 5 Group of 5 transfers moved up to Power 5. The rest stayed in Group of 5 or went down a level.

What was amazing to see was that almost 1/3rd of quarterbacks will end up transferring. Skill position players tended to transfer more than the guys in the trenches. Their analysis suggested that roughly 16% (roughly 1 out of 6) of any given recruiting class is going to transfer out now before they graduate.

As much as we complain about the transfer portal, the SEC has significantly more players leaving than the Pac-12. As I mentioned above, WSU is in the bottom half when it comes to guys leaving....but the upper half when it comes to guys thinking about leaving.

Anyway, a lot of things to think about if you want to see a relatively unbiased analysis of what's going on.

 

[SDCoug]

As I mentioned above, WSU is in the bottom half when it comes to guys leaving....but the upper half when it comes to guys thinking about leaving.

This touches on a question I have after looking at the article. Do all of those kids that enter the portal, but don’t transfer, end up staying on the team? Or are they in nomads land and, essentially, out of college football? If the latter, we’re still impacted at the same level as ASU.

I’d personally have a hard time playing with some kid who bailed but couldn’t find a home. Who knows if it even bothers kids today, though.

 

[CougInSpain]

Interesting analysis of how this is starting to play out. I think it's just like anything else that is shiny and new. Everyone see's it as an opportunity for a better situation but then realize that the chances of getting that opportunity are less likely due to the nature of this beast. Over time, I think we will see these numbers dwindle.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Interesting analysis of how this is starting to play out. I think it's just like anything else that is shiny and new. Everyone see's it as an opportunity for a better situation but then realize that the chances of getting that opportunity are less likely due to the nature of this beast. Over time, I think we will see these numbers dwindle.

Agree 100%.

It's important to note that nearly 2/3rds of the guys from Power 5 teams that enter the portal end up dropping down to Group of 5 or lower. There's just over a 1 in 3 chance of landing at another Power 5 school. I'm betting that 2 and 3 star players are the majority of players that aren't getting another Power 5 opportunity. Of course, I think that's a big reason why WSU has seen a lot of guys who've entered the portal not actually transferring away. I think they are realizing that those better opportunities aren't really there.

 

[WASH ST A&M FAN]

I think what you will see is the non-starter underclassmen staying more in the future and only the proven comity upgrading themselves with the Portal. There's gonna be some future sad stories written about a former highly recruited players out of HS being left out in the cold when it comes to the musical chairs that is portal recruiting.

I also see this playing out much like how some schools were all in on JUCO players, some kids used it upon need, and others never went that route.

The prisoner of the moment and shiny object reference above is spot on.