Vs the Devils
- Thread starter COUGinNCW
- Start date
No Pollard again tonight, Bonton & Elleby combine to go 7-44 & 1-19 from 3-point line, 11 turnovers by Bonton alone, and somehow the Cougars were tied with ASU with just a couple of minutes to go. End up losing by 9. Big credit to Tony Miller and Vova, who had a double-double. A week ago, I had severely criticized Vova and hoped that the redshirt from Clarkston would take his place next year. I was wrong....Markovetskyy was one of the best players on the court tonight. So perhaps a bit of silver lining....but I can't believe how poor Elleby generally plays on the road. Miller, Vova, and Robinson get us tied...and then Elleby & Bonton start hogging the ball on offense there at the end. Too bad.....
Glad Cougar
Glad Cougar
IF Elleby were to leave, were to get drafted, It would probably be somewhere between very last pick of 1st round, to last pick of 2nd round.
Elleby was projected as high as about somewhere between 25th pick of 1st round to 1st pick of 2nd round, with a chance to slide.
But most of that was just the HYPE.
Now Elleby would probably be projected about last pick of 1st round, to last pick of 2nd round, with a chance to slide, go undrafted.
But even if the 25th pick of 1st round, with chance to slide, was right, CJ, that would have not been enough to justify leaving, as CJ would have to be projected Top 22, to justify leaving.
But even if 25th with chance to slide, were to have justified leaving, he is probably not going to do that.
CJ, Like Klay, needs 1 more year. And the NBA knows it. And so CJ is probably now projected to go about last pick of 1st round to last pick of 2nd round, with chance to slide into either 2nd round an or to go undrafted.
Because of that Elleby needs to stay.
Next year if Elleby stays, he will go about somewhere between 14th pick of 1st round at best, to about 27th pick, with a chance to slide to last pick of 1st round at worst.
Couple that with a NIT championship/NCAA tournament 2nd round run/probability/at least realistic possibility, 18 to 22 wins, 7 to 10 wins, 500 in conference, etc.
So Elleby is probably staying.
Elleby was projected as high as about somewhere between 25th pick of 1st round to 1st pick of 2nd round, with a chance to slide.
But most of that was just the HYPE.
Now Elleby would probably be projected about last pick of 1st round, to last pick of 2nd round, with a chance to slide, go undrafted.
But even if the 25th pick of 1st round, with chance to slide, was right, CJ, that would have not been enough to justify leaving, as CJ would have to be projected Top 22, to justify leaving.
But even if 25th with chance to slide, were to have justified leaving, he is probably not going to do that.
CJ, Like Klay, needs 1 more year. And the NBA knows it. And so CJ is probably now projected to go about last pick of 1st round to last pick of 2nd round, with chance to slide into either 2nd round an or to go undrafted.
Because of that Elleby needs to stay.
Next year if Elleby stays, he will go about somewhere between 14th pick of 1st round at best, to about 27th pick, with a chance to slide to last pick of 1st round at worst.
Couple that with a NIT championship/NCAA tournament 2nd round run/probability/at least realistic possibility, 18 to 22 wins, 7 to 10 wins, 500 in conference, etc.
So Elleby is probably staying.
Yes, exactly. Contrary to what Mikalalas thinks, I cannot see an NBA team spending a draft choice on a guy who is capable of performing so poorly on a regular albeit intermittent occasion. Kid has talent but needs another year.
The NBA drafts on POTENTIAL There are a lot of guys that the NBA has drafted, that I would not have drafted, due to their being RAW, lacking or undeveloped talent, lack of production, etc.
Several times the NBA has drafted big men/Wings, PG's, etc, that only had like 3 to 6 ppg, 2 to 6 rebounds per game, 1 block per game, 1 steal per game, etc, that lacked PRODUCTION, that lacked developed talent, that were ONLY RAW, NBA athletic, had NBA UPSIDE, NBA POTENTIAL, etc, and then has had the player not do anything in the NBA.
It doesnt matter to some NBA drafter's that CJ needs another year. They think that instead of CJ using another year, that they can just have CJ, spend a year either in the NBA itself, or in the NBA D, G leagues(NBA's MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL), and then bring them up when they are ready.
They are also willing to take a risk, gamble, with a bottom of 2nd round pick, etc, if they think the player has high upside, potential.
They are looking for the next Nick Van Excel(PAST Key Laker Guard drafted at, near the bottom of 2nd round)
So NBA drafters often swing for the fences, take big risk, and MISS with bottom of 2nd round picks.
There are also first rounders like Christie, Sam Bowie, etc, that shouldnt have been drafted at all, let alone as 2nd pick in 1st round, or as a lottery pick.
Also its NOT MY projection.
There was a stretch this season where all the publications, websites, media, experts, scouts, etc, were projecting CJ to go as high as 25th in 1st round to last pick of 1st round, to top of 2nd round, with a chance to slide to 2nd round.
That wasnt my projection. That was their projection.
I thought that CJ would go last pick of 1st round to bottom of 2nd round.
Then as the season went on, I changed my mind. I now think CJ would go somewhere between top to middle of 2nd round, to bottom of 2nd round, with a possible slide chance of sliding to undrafted.
But thats just me.
The NBA probably would draft CJ last pick of 1st round to bottom of 2nd round, with chance to slide, which is higher then what I would project.
If CJ left earlier, worst case scenario, either some NBA drafter would take a flier on him somewhere in 2nd round, an or he would go undrafted, then immediatly signed to a FA contract.
Elleby would still get his SHOT at the NBA, if he left early. Just not as good of a shot.
But because of the above. Elleby is going to stay. Then next year he would probably go about 14th in 1st round at best, to 27th, to last pick of 1st round at worst.
If Elleby left, and if it was me drafting, and if getting Elleby would maybe help fill a need, etc, I might probably draft Elleby somewhere between middle of 2nd round to bottom of 2nd round as a flier pick.
Note Baseball drafts highschool players in later rounds for the same reasons why the NBA would draft Elleby if he left early.
The NBA is becoming more like MLB baseball in how, why it drafts.
If Elleby was the kind of player in baseball, that he is in basketball, MLB would draft him.
And the NBA would draft Elleby for the same reasons why MLB would draft Elleby if Elleby was the same type of player in baseball that he is in basketball.
But that's a moot point, because Elleby is going to stay, not leave.
Only way Elleby would leave, not stay, is if he was, were to be projected as a top 22 of 1st round draft pick. Since he is not projected as that, he will stay.
One big difference between NBA and MLB drafts. The NBA only has two rounds, MLB has 40. But yeah, you are right about teams drafting potential as much as for production. Most of us think CJ needs at least another year of college ball (even objectively thinking that's the case) but all it takes is for one NBA team to think they can develop Elleby better than a college coach can...and he'll be drafted.
Glad Cougar
Glad Cougar
ESPN doesn’t have CJ in their top 100 draft picks this year. As a side note Tinkle is number 83. I can’t find CJ on any of the major mock draft boards. I really think he will be back next year, if not I feel he will be playing overseas and that’s not what he wants. His game doesn’t really translate to the NBA IMO. Again this is just my opinion but for CJ to play in the NBA the stars would have to line up perfectly and by that I mean he would have to carve out a nitch in a perfect situation on the right team. The chances of that are very slim. He is a very good player and I wish him the best but we’ve all seen better players not make it in the NBA. I don’t think another year or two at WSU will make that much difference toward the NBA but it could be a huge difference in WSU basketball fortunes.
ESPN is not the only CREDIBLE thing out there.
Tier 1: ESPN, etc.
Tier 2, there are a lot of Semi Credible ESPN like, at, on tier 2.
There have been some to a lot of mix of tier 1,2,3 who EARLIER in the season, projected CJ at about 25th in 1st round.
That was directly cited by a lot of posters here on this board, and not just me. And it wasnt just said, cited on this board. A couple, few, some posters here, listed, cited some of those sources, and there was at least 1 either link provided, an or copy paste of the source.
I double checked those sources, and even googled up what CJ's draft projections were.
CJ WAS WAS projected at about 25th by those sources at about midway thru the season during the HYPE of CJ.
Now tho, you are probably right that the draft projections about CJ have changed is either not projected to be drafted at all, or about Top to Midway thru 2nd round at best, bottom of 2nd round at worst, and undrafted signed FA at ultimate worst.
Just because you personally havent seen these at least semi credible projections by at least semi credible sources that are like ESPN, doesnt mean tbat the projections did not exist.
As Sellas has said Elleby has probably played his way into either not being drafted as high, not being drafted at all, not being projected as high, not being projected anymore, and into having to stay another year.
While I agree with some to a lot of what you said about CJ, I do not agree with another year not helping.
I think Elleby this year, was, is comparable to Klay's year before he was drafted.
If Klay had left 1 year earlier, I think Klay would have gone about either about 27th pick to last pick of 1st round to top of 2nd round, to bottom of 2nd round, undrafted but signed FA, at ultimate extreme worst.
If 1 more year shouldnt make a difference, then Klay would have been drafted about, between 13th to 23rd pick in NBA if he had left 1 year earlier.
Its obvious that 1 more year did make a lot of difference for Klay, and why he was a lottery pick at #12.
And since 1 more year made a difference for Klay, it likely will probably make a difference for CJ as well
A player develops a LOT between freshman/Sophmore to Junior years.
When a player is a Junior tho, 1 more year, becoming a senior, really usually doesnt help much.
After CJ's freshman year, he might have been drafted as a longshot FLIER last pick of 2nd round, had he left early.
He CJ was told by the NBA, that he needed to work on some things in his game, and that one of those was DEFENSE, and that if he did so that he woukd probably get drafted
Well CJ did that, but now he CJ needs to improve his offensive game. And the NBA will probably tell CJ that if he improves his CONSISTENCY, and not be INCONSISTENT, and IMPROVES HIS OFFENSE, and that if he PUTS IT ALL TOGETHER AS A COMPLETE PACKAGE, that he will probably get drafted next year
Whether he gets drafted next year, and how high he CJ gets drafted next year, depends on if he develops, how much he develops, how well he becomes at becoming good enough of each of the things that are part of being the complete package. AKA, PPG, REBOUNDS, ASSIST, FREETHROW SHOOTING, 3 POINT SHOOTING, STEALS, BLOCKS, DEFENSE, CONSISTENCY, ETC, AGAINST GOOD ENOUGH COMPETITION, ETC.
At 6 ft 6.5 in, stretch 2/3/ stretch 4 HYBRID being extremely fast, athletic, even tho there is a lot if that in the NBA, and a lot of competition in that area to even make the NBA, if he Elleby scores about 19+/20+ ppg CONSISTENTLY, gets about 5 to 7 to 9 rebounds per game CONSISTENTLY, gets about 3,4,5 ASSIST per game CONSISTENTLY, Shoots 90% from Freethrow line CONSISTENTLY, and gets to the FREETHROW line CONSISTENTLY, and shoots a lot of 3 pointers, makes a lot of 3 pointers, shoots about 39 to 43% from 3 point range CONSISTENTLY, shoots about 45 to 47 to 49/50 to 53% from the field CONSISTENTLY, gets 2,3,4 steals per game CONSISTENTLY, gets 1,2,3 blocks CONSISTENTLY, plays awesome lockdown defense CONSISTENTLY.
If Elleby does that, those things, he will get drafted, and have his shot at the NBA next year.
The only question is if he will develop, do those things.
1 year made the difference for Klay.
1 year might or might not make a difference for CJ.
But saying its not possible or not likely to make a difference for CJ is wrong
We will see if it makes a difference for CJ or not.
I think it will make a difference for CJ. And I think CJ will get drafted.
In any case, CJ will most definately not be leaving early and will at least stay 1 more year.
I agree the year made a big difference for Klay but that doesn’t mean it will for CJ. Klay has exceeded my expectations but I saw an NBA player in Klay early on. With CJ I really don’t see it. Good but not great shooter, not a very good 1st step, not exceptionally athletic, great rebounder for his size ( size will be more of an issue at the next level) imo all adds up to a great college player that falls a little short of the NBA. Nothing wrong with pulling down mid to high 6 figure income overseas.
The biggest question mark is if he is or will become, be either VERSATILE enough to play the 2,3 spots in the NBA?
OR
If he can play the 2 in the NBA if he is not versatile enough to play the 2,3 spots both in the NBA.
Most players that are 6 ft 6.5 in like Elleby, usually play the 2 in the NBA.
The 2 in the NBA has to:
1. Shoot well from the 3 point range
2. Shoot well from the field.
3. Have a good 1st step, hesitation, shoulder shrug, crossover dribble, be able to show, fake the shot, and go, be able to give and go, and receive back, be able to slash, drive, penetrate, beat man guarding him off the dribble, FINISH at the rim.
4. Using 3 above to create shot, whether that's a fall away jumper, turn around jumper, lay up, dunk, runner in lane, tear dropper, windmill, hook shot, etc.
5. Gets to the freethrow line.
6. Shoots well from the freethrow line.
7. Dishes out 1,2,3,4 assist per game.
8. Has a great dribble.
9. Doesnt turn ball over
10. Plays awesome lockdown defense.
11. Gets 1,2,3,4 steals per game.
12. Gets about 4,5,6,7,8 rebounds per game.
13. Gets double doubles.
14. Scores about 10 to 20 ppg at the NBA level.
Quintesential examples of NBA 2 guards.
1. Jordan.
2. Hard something(having a temporary brain fart, cant remember his name, plays for Houston.
3. Klay.
4. Reggie Miller.
5. Kobe
Most GOOD NBA GOOD 2's are 6ft 6 in, and can do some to most of the things I listed.
If Elleby is not versatilie enough to play both 2,3, in the NBA, then he will play the 2.
Is Elleby versatile enough to play both the 2,3 spots in the NBA?
Maybe, maybe not, but probably not, at least not now.
Will he become versatile enough with 2 more year, to play both the 2,3 in the NBA?
I dont know. We will see.
Is Elleby good enough to play the 2 in the NBA? Maybe, maybe not, BORDERLINE, BUT PROBABLY NOT, at least not now.
He certainly can do some of the listed things, but cant do some of the listed things like:
1. Shooting is QUESTIONABLE, BORDERLINE.
2. His ability or lack of ability to slash, drive, penetrate, beat opponent off dribble, finish at rim, create his own shot, make his own shot, do, make fall away jumpers, turn around jumpers, do, make runners, teardroppers, hook shots, backboard shots, windmills, etc, score almost at will, ala Ike Fontaine, is questionable, debateable, borderline, and might probably not.
Will Elleby be able to do those things after 1 more year? I dont know, maybe.
For as much as you, some saw NBA potential in Klay, remember Klay wasnt able to do the list of things a NBA 2 guard can, should be able to do, until during, after his Junior season, 1 more year.
Klay needed 1 more year to be able to learn how to do some of those things.
Remember 1 criticism of Klay was that some said he wasnt able to dribble, beat opponents off dribble, finish at rim, etc.
Well 1 year later Klay was beating opponents off the dribble, was finishing at the rim, and did that in the NBA also.
If Klay can learn to do that, Elleby can also learn to do that too with his, and Klay's athleticism being about the same(Klays athleticism was about the same as Elleby's when, while he was playing at WSU).
Will Elleby learn, improve, develop, etc, with 1 more year, like unto Klay?
Maybe.
We will see.
