What do we know a few days into spring....

[ttowncoug]

The pieces on the official site and others, indicate...

..."ahead of where other (young) Texas Tech teams were..."
..." new coaches just learning their players..."
..."defensive players learning the new defense/terminology."
..." new coaches applaud energy/attitude..."
..." depth at receiver is thin (per Harrell)"

In addition:
1. We don't know if Daquon Brown is gone for good.
2. Larue may or may not have broke a cardinal sin of Leach.
3. Falk has looked sharp in no contact drills, against #2 (?) defense.
4. Our punter left, but don't now why....but this is being minimized by the fact we have a HS kid coming in.

 

[CougPatrol]

Things I feel strongly about

Offensive line will be significantly improved

The QB job is Falk's to lose. He'll surely start the season, and keeping the job will be more about his performance than the guys pushing him.

Defense will continue to struggle with big plays, but should improve as more quality depth emerges

We lack a homerun threat at WR, but I think having multiple underneath guys plays to Falk's strengths.

This will be the most passionate, strongly bonded team in Leach's tenure at WSU. 100% roster buy-in this year

My questions

Placekicking

Special Teams coverage units

Running game production

Outlook

The game at Rutgers is a huge swing game for our season. I don't typically like to hinge an entire season on an early out of conference game, but starting off 3-0 against Portland State, Rutgers, and Wyoming will give us some much needed margin for error when we get into conference play. No opponents are locks for us, but having Oregon State and Colorado at home will help. Home contests vs. Stanford and ASU won't be easy, but we *could* steal one of those games. Road games at Cal, at UW, at UCLA, and at Arizona aren't easy, but I think we'll be very competitive in at least 2 of them.

A 3-0 start will lead me to a prediction of 6-6 / 7-5.

If we stumble against Rutgers (or Wyoming), it's going to be a tough road back to .500

 

[CougEd]

Early on losses in 2012 and 2014

really kind of defined those seasons. BYU gave people a blue print how to play them in 2012. early on anyway. Then the loss to Cu was devastating. And losing to Rutgers set the tone, especially up by three and fumbling in a punt return. 3 point lead could have been six or 10.

I don't think we will learn anything in spring. I am sure we will hear Mike Graise say he worked harder than ever in the weight room, that people are more dedicated, but truth is the proof is in the pudding.

Last thing Falk and Bender will split the reps and no one will be named the starter for the fall. They can't afford to have another Bruggman.

 

[ttowncoug]

On paper, this years team should be better than last years team. More experience on defense...plus the additions of the JC kids should bring an instant talent boost.

As for our schedule, The Pac-12 is a bit of a mystery, but on the high end I can see us an 8 or 9 team win, with we sweep the OOC schedule. As for the conference, the bolded teams are teams I think we have a shot at based on what they lose.



California (team should be slightly better, beatable IMO)

Oregon (question mark on quarterback, offensive line losses)

Oregon State (new coach, new QB, down year, IMO)

Arizona (might win the conference champ)

Stanford (should be good)

Arizona State (I see them a lot like AZ)

UCLA (if Neuheisal's kids the QB, I like our chances)

Colorado (might be the surprise team...I like their QB...I think its close)

Washington (rebuilding year with a young QB, IMO)

 

[ttowncoug]

Re: Early on losses in 2012 and 2014


Last season, I felt the Nevada loss was really the defining game. That put us 0-2 which was too big of a hole to realistically dig out of.

 

[Coug1990]

Re: Early on losses in 2012 and 2014

Originally posted by CougEd:
really kind of defined those seasons. BYU gave people a blue print how to play them in 2012. early on anyway. Then the loss to Cu was devastating. And losing to Rutgers set the tone, especially up by three and fumbling in a punt return. 3 point lead could have been six or 10.

I don't think we will learn anything in spring. I am sure we will hear Mike Graise say he worked harder than ever in the weight room, that people are more dedicated, but truth is the proof is in the pudding.

Last thing Falk and Bender will split the reps and no one will be named the starter for the fall. They can't afford to have another Bruggman.

Just curious. Is there a reason why you picked a Doba player and not a Wulff player? The same thing is said in just about every sport, whether it be football, basketball of or baseball.

 

[CougPatrol]

Re: Early on losses in 2012 and 2014

Originally posted by Coug1990:

Just curious. Is there a reason why you picked a Doba player and not a Wulff player?

Just curious. Is there a reason why you're trying to stir the pot and hijack a thread intended to discuss the upcoming football season? What do Doba and Wulff have to do with any of the content in this thread?

 

[CougEd]

I thought Graise played for WSU

But since you ask because he wrote for Cougfan as a guest columnist. Not sure I read many guest columnists since that time. Not saying that there have not been any, but I stopped ready we had the best off season etc in part here was a guy who went into print how hard they worked and yet he came in at 220 and probably left at 220. He was a guy who said how dedicated he was then I believe the spring right before his senior year had a run in with the law.

So if you have a "Wulff player article" as a guest columnist I would be more than happy to read it. Once I read it I will be more than happy to reference it as "I am done reading how great they did in winter conditioning" and I will believe it when I see it on the field.

In terms of what I believe happened to WSU I think I have been more than clear. Rawlins is a tool. He didn't capitalize on what Mike Price brought to the Palouse. He went cheap. He thought saving a million a year was worth losing the tens of millions he lost by hiring a great assistant coach who was not a head coach, and probably knew it and said as much. The staff took advantage of him, and he being such a nice man didn't fire the people he should have. The team missed on A players and didn't have a back up plan and once Brink and the two DT's left the team was off the cliff. And I said it at the time, and I will continue to say it, anyone, including my first choice Mike Price, and if Leach was available I would have selected him if Price didn't want to come back that it would take 5 years before they win. The two key ingredients to how Price and Doba built it were not on campus and those two positions took the longest to develop.

So you can keep thinking Graise is Doba's player, Jesse Sanchez is Wulff's player. You can keep separating the two regimes like one is the Hatfield and the others are the McCoys. Feel free.

 

[CougPatrol]

This Wulff / Doba stuff never ends. Every thread, regardless of the topic, reverts back to the same old crap from the same cast of characters.

While it's obvious who the primary offenders are, this has turned into a parenting (moderator) issue. I've never been a fan of deleting posts, but enough is enough.

 

[Coug1990]

Re: Early on losses in 2012 and 2014

Originally posted by CougPatrol:

Originally posted by Coug1990:

Just curious. Is there a reason why you picked a Doba player and not a Wulff player?

Just curious. Is there a reason why you're trying to stir the pot and hijack a thread intended to discuss the upcoming football season? What do Doba and Wulff have to do with any of the content in this thread?

Because Ed always has an agenda. I wasn't trying to hijack a thread. I just thought it odd that he would chose a player that was a Doba recruit when there are numerous Wulff recruits to choose from as well. Or better yet, use no name and still make the point.

 

[Coug1990]

The whining never stops as well. I seldom post in the Doba/Wulff threads anymore. So, you know what I do, don't read them. Have you thought about doing that instead of complaining?

 

[CougPatrol]

Originally posted by Coug1990:
The whining never stops as well. I seldom post in the Doba/Wulff threads anymore. So, you know what I do, don't read them. Have you thought about doing that instead of complaining?

I avoid threads all the time. I'm sure a lot of other people do too.

That's great advice though. Stop complaining about the constant infighting in threads on (what is supposed to be) a discussion board of Cougar football.

 

[Coug1990]

Originally posted by CougPatrol:

Originally posted by Coug1990:
The whining never stops as well. I seldom post in the Doba/Wulff threads anymore. So, you know what I do, don't read them. Have you thought about doing that instead of complaining?

I avoid threads all the time. I'm sure a lot of other people do too.

That's great advice though. Stop complaining about the constant infighting in threads on (what is supposed to be) a discussion board of Cougar football.

The biggest problem is that we have two people who are opposite in their views, but their personalities are similar. They both have to have the last word, unfortunately. So, to read them sometimes is like watching a tennis match. Back and forth, back and forth.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

I agree with most of Patrol's post in the early stages of the thread, before the thread veered off topic.

Just two areas for comment...first, I think we potentially have a couple of explosive speed and moves WR's for this season. What I don't know is whether they can keep their feet and escape the first hit if the DB fails to wrap up. That was a major failing last year IMO (we only had one guy who was a strong runner after the catch, and that guy had butter fingers too often), and I hope we make progress in that area this year. True big play WR's make the catches they should make, and then can't be taken out by a glancing hit and no wrap-up.

Second, I think our D will live and die based on improvement at DB. And a big part of that will be not having a revolving door of injured guys at CB and Safety. If we just have an average injury year we stand a good chance of significant DB unit improvement over last year, and we'll need that if we want to reach a bowl.

 

[79COUG]

Very good analysis, crazy.
Thanks for your input on the topic.

 

[Cougsocal]

Originally posted by CougPatrol:

Things I feel strongly about

Offensive line will be significantly improved

The QB job is Falk's to lose. He'll surely start the season, and keeping the job will be more about his performance than the guys pushing him.

Defense will continue to struggle with big plays, but should improve as more quality depth emerges

We lack a homerun threat at WR, but I think having multiple underneath guys plays to Falk's strengths.

This will be the most passionate, strongly bonded team in Leach's tenure at WSU. 100% roster buy-in this year

My questions

Placekicking

Special Teams coverage units

Running game production

Outlook

The game at Rutgers is a huge swing game for our season. I don't typically like to hinge an entire season on an early out of conference game, but starting off 3-0 against Portland State, Rutgers, and Wyoming will give us some much needed margin for error when we get into conference play. No opponents are locks for us, but having Oregon State and Colorado at home will help. Home contests vs. Stanford and ASU won't be easy, but we *could* steal one of those games. Road games at Cal, at UW, at UCLA, and at Arizona aren't easy, but I think we'll be very competitive in at least 2 of them.

A 3-0 start will lead me to a prediction of 6-6 / 7-5.

If we stumble against Rutgers (or Wyoming), it's going to be a tough road back to .500

Spring is always the most interesting time for a team that is struggling. There are no sure returning starters. And you can really gauge the quality of the prior years recruiting class. We will know the quality of the 2014 recruiting class this spring. It isn't like there is a ton of returning talent to keep them buried on the depth chart.

Wyoming, PSU and OSU are our likely wins. I can't see us traveling back east and beating Rutgers in early September in the heat and humidity with their power. Colorado will be a good test to determine who is doing a better coaching job, Leach or MacIntyre. Both teams will have young QBs, and suspect recruiting (on paper). Cal in Strawberry Canyon -- we will need to score 50+ to win. If we win that game, Dykes will be on his way out.

I see 4 wins at most. However, that 4 wins can be a reasons for great optimism, or despair. If we start the season playing an insanely young defense, and those young kids are very green, but athletic and very quick, I'm pump for the future. However, if like last year, we start the season with a defense heavy with upper classmen, and they are replaced by the young guys only after they have played themselves out of a starting job, it is Golden Gate Bridge time.

On offense, Falk is at least a season away from being able to win games himself, i.e. out score teams. Because of that, I just don't see how we get to 5 wins. But like the defense, there can be reason for optimism or despair. We need an upgrade athlete-wise in the receiving corp. We are loaded with scrappy possession receivers, but short on YACs guys. A couple of them, everything opens up.

The OL will give up twice as many sacks as last year, that's a given. Falk can't be expected to get the ball out as quick as Halliday. But if we get a couple more guys who are athletic enough to run block out of wide splits, we will have turned a corner. If you make defenses respect the run, you don't have to rely on "release the ball before you find the laces" throws.

If we have another OL that is dependent on angle geometry to protect Falk, and can't get to and hold their blocks on run plays, its official we are now 3 deep with not very good OLs.

At RB, we just need one kid who can help the OL out a little. The run game is symbiotic. You need the OL and the RB working together. As spread out as were are, we don't need a fast kid, we don't need a big kid, we do need a kid who can see the field, find space and set up blocks. Harrison and Mayes didn't run behind great or even good lines, who blew teams off the ball, they ran behind lines who just blocked someone, and leaving them find the gaps.

If the difference makers are on the roster, we will know about them prior to April 25.

 

[Geoduck12]

Re: Early on losses in 2012 and 2014

The old saying don't let a team beat you twice was true last year. I feel that there was tremendous optimism going into the Rutgers game, a confidence in them they would best Rutgers. When they lost they were crushed and carried that disappointment into the Nevada game. Hence the saying, the Rutgers game cost them 2 losses. Had they won that game, no way they lose to Nevada.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I have grown to believe that spring practices/scrimmages mean almost nothing.

Pretty much the same for fall camp as well. I'm from Missouri now. Show me something Leach. Then I'll believe.

 

[CougEd]

Yes...the ole agenda...which is what when it comes


to off season hype. We haven't had a winning season in the last 11 years, yet we hear how focused how hard they work. Yes, Graise wrote an article and that is why it is fresh in the memory. Monroe was a spokeperson for the team at the Pac 12 fall kickoff and his performance fell off and he quit instead of getting back on the bike after falling off.

Monroe is a Wulff recruit, and I just brought up his name. Does that make the point any different. Good grief.
This post was edited on 4/1 9:23 AM by CougEd

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Just $0.02 on a couple of the recent posts in this thread.

First of all, Spring practice means a lot. It is critical for the team. I think that is so obvious, it doesn't need further elaboration. But if what was meant by the "doesn't mean anything" comment was that you can't predict W/L success next fall from the results of this spring, then that is probably a fair statement. What you do get regarding next fall is a pretty fair idea of who will be starting. Not 100%, because there are some transfers in particular who will be joining the team this summer that might earn a starting spot. And of course, somebody might get hurt or somebody else might improve enough between now and August to cause a change. But by and large, you will know who will be lining up on O & D, and get at least a glimpse into special teams possibilities.

Second, we have a new D coordinator, so this will also be our chance to get an idea of what schemes/packages he is considering. That is more relevant this spring that it would normally be, since the regime has changed.

Third, any time you see something that resembles a pro set, I formation offense (with or without a TE) in the first week of spring ball on a Leach team, you have to at least be a little curious...if you care about Cougar football and have a pulse.
This post was edited on 4/1 9:47 AM by cr8zyncalif

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

Originally posted by cr8zyncalif:

Just $0.02 on a couple of the recent posts in this thread.

First of all, Spring practice means a lot. It is critical for the team. I think that is so obvious, it doesn't need further elaboration. But if what was meant by the "doesn't mean anything" comment was that you can't predict W/L success next fall from the results of this spring, then that is probably a fair statement. What you do get regarding next fall is a pretty fair idea of who will be starting. Not 100%, because there are some transfers in particular who will be joining the team this summer that might earn a starting spot. And of course, somebody might get hurt or somebody else might improve enough between now and August to cause a change. But by and large, you will know who will be lining up on O & D, and get at least a glimpse into special teams possibilities.

Second, we have a new D coordinator, so this will also be our chance to get an idea of what schemes/packages he is considering. That is more relevant this spring that it would normally be, since the regime has changed.

Third, any time you see something that resembles a pro set, I formation offense (with or without a TE) in the first week of spring ball on a Leach team, you have to at least be a little curious...if you care about Cougar football and have a pulse.
This post was edited on 4/1 9:47 AM by cr8zyncalif

My point was mostly around hype and the fact that all teams are having/will have a great spring. I've never heard a coach from any team claim they had a poor spring, so that is why I say it doesn't mean anything to me, although your points are valid.

 

[YakiCoug]

Ed is right about how the spring-ball hype has run thick over the years, although he was pretty pumped up during the Wulff years. And that's OK. That was his guy, but spring ball hasn't been the greatest indicator species at WSU in quite awhile. Conversely, when I attended the spring game in '97, I and many others didn't see the conference champion. I saw an underweight back-up d-end named Jonathan Nance absolutely pancake Jason McEndoo. I saw a puffy Ryan Leaf throw some ragged passes. I remember thinking it was too bad James Darling hadn't been redshirted, and that having Todd Nelson take over hardly inspired confidence. Depth that year generally was a wading pool.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Yaki, your last line caught my interest.

"Depth was a wading pool". That is often true, and while the depth was a bit better that fall than it was in the spring, it still wasn't super deep. Maybe two wading pools?

The key point was that '97 was one of those years when the injury gods were kind to WSU (right up until we lost our RB in the Rose Bowl). Two years ago we got to a bowl game (a year sooner than I expected) to a great extent because our injuries were on the minimal side. Last year we severely disappointed, to a great extent because our injuries were worse than usual.

If this year merely returns to typical injury numbers, I can see 6 wins. But if the pixie dust is thick and we don't lose many guys for very long, this could really be a surprise season.

 

[ttowncoug]

I agree. Spring isn't an great future indicator of the team. However, I do recall in 2002, the reports were the (vanilla) offense was virtually unstoppable. That year we were pretty good.

The thing I am seeing on some of these tapes (and it might be against the #2 offense) is the defense is moving pretty quickly and making some plays.

 

[YakiCoug]

Originally posted by ttowncoug:
I agree. Spring isn't an great future indicator of the team. However, I do recall in 2002, the reports were the (vanilla) offense was virtually unstoppable. That year we were pretty good.

The thing I am seeing on some of these tapes (and it might be against the #2 offense) is the defense is moving pretty quickly and making some plays.

The video of the first practice with pads often shows the offense making some nice gains on running plays, and the o-line coach states the staff tweaked some things during the off-season regarding blocking. And much is made of returning your five starters and their experience and cohesion.
But a look at that same video shows Barber and Tapa on the sidelines (injured, I presume). I suspect their return to the line-up would be a factor in the offense's running production. I doubt very much our o-line this coming season will face many o-linemen converted to d-tackle (McClain). I simply have come to take spring ball with a grain or two of salt and a more analytical eye.

 

[spongebob11]

Does anyone know if they've worked harder in the off season than they ever have?

If not, its gonna be a long season

 

[95coug]

I'm not going to argue that spring isn't important, but I think that fans and media tend to put a bit too much stock in it. These are practices that use a little more of the depth chart, audition some new starters, and maybe get a few new names some extra reps.

But, WSU fans should know better than most that you can't judge how good any team is when it's playing against itself. How many times in the 2000s have we seen spring ball and thought that our offense was pretty strong, but then when fall rolled around, we found out that our defense was just so bad it made every offense look strong?

This spring, with the change in D coordinators/systems, I don't expect the defense to look very good. Kids will be moving around and learning new assignments, in addition to just having new people on the field. The important thing is giving them the reps and letting them figure out what to work on for fall.

I'm glad we get PSU first this year. That should give a little bit of margin for error in the first game, and give some game-speed reps to more players. That should help with the trip east for Rutgers. Win that one, and we should come home and beat Wyoming (which should be a winnable game anyway) and start 3-0. Lose at Rutgers and Wyoming gets tougher - I'm not sure how mature this team is, especially in key positions, or if there are any leaders emerging.

I'm not going to look too deep into the season at this point, there are just too many question marks on too many teams, including us. Oregon and Arizona seem like the two that are the biggest mountains to climb, followed by ASU.

I don't think Falk has the QB spot sewn up by any means, and I think it'll stay open until a week before the opener. He certainly has a head start and an advantage, but wasn't so stellar in his time in 2014 that he's a lock. If he does get the nod, his mobility could prevent some sacks...but could also create some turnovers. WHoever is throwing it should benefit from Marks coming back (I assume), but the real key is going to be improvement of the OL.

But...nothing on the offensive side will matter if the D doesn't improve at least enough to be in the top 70-80.