WSU Rising, UW falling.

mikalalas

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I am wonderering if WSU can Rise, and Cause UW to fall, and at least temporarily out recruit UW in the Seattle, Portland, West Coast of WA, Oregon, Northwestern CA, metro areas.

I think after this coming season would be the time to start to do it, and here why:

1. UW finished 5-21, almost as bad as WSU's Paul Graham.

2. Mike Hopkins, UW HC is still going to coach for 1,2,3 years before fired, replaced

3. UW has 50% to 65% to 77% of team in Transfer Portal

4. UW will likely have at least 1,2,3 more seasons of only 5 to 7.5 to 10 wins.

At the same time as UW's WOES, WSU is likely to win at least 18 to 23 wins in regular season, 8-10, 9-9, 10-8, 12-6, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, in conference, 1,2,3 Pac 12 Tourny wins, NIT Top 8+/ NCAA 2nd Round, Sweet 16, 21 to 25 total wins by end of season.

If WSU does that, combined with what I said about UW, and if Smith continues to recruit well, like he is likely to do, and with Noah Williams, player, coach, recruiter, and CJ Elleby, etc, I think WSU could out recruit UW in the metro areas of the Seattle, Portland Area, after this coming season.

Then after that it would be likely that UW would continue its fall for at least 1 more year.

And WSU would likely win 22 to 25 wins in regular season, 10-8, 11-7, 12-6, 13-5, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th in Pac 12 conference, 2,3,4 wins in Pac 12 Tourny, NCAA Tourny 2nd Round, Sweet 16, Elite 8, and 24.5 to 28.5 total wins in the Next season after this coming NIT/NCAA season.

If, assuming that were to Happen, to go along with a 2nd, 3rd bad UW year, leading to Mike Hopkins firing, I could then see Noah during his senior year, if he doesnt leave early to NBA, and Smith again out recruiting the UW in the Westside Metro area for a 2nd year.

Then I think UW would have a 12,13 win year under the new UW coach.

WSU would lose Noah, and 1,2,3 others, and semi reload, rebuild, win 17,18,19,20 wins, another NIT.

Which would then lead to another WSU again out recruiting UW in the Westside Metro Areas.

Then UW would win 15,16,17 wins, CBI under the new coach.

Then WSU wins another 20 to 24 wins, goes to another NCAA Tournament

Then WSU again out recruits UW in the West Side Metro.

Then UW wins 18, 19, 20, 21 wins, goes to a NIT or 1st round NCAA elimination.

WSU, Smith wins 23 to 26 games, 2nd Round, Sweet 16, Elite 8.

WSU either ties with UW, or Out recruits UW in West Side area metros.

Then UW wins 22,23,24 games, goes to 2nd Round, Sweet 16 of NCAA's

Then WSU wins 25,26,27 games, Elite 8, Final 4.

WSU ties or Out Recruits UW in Westside Metro.

Then UW wins 23,24,25 wins, sweet 16, Elite 8.

Then WSU wins 16,17,18 games, CBI/NIT.

Then UW ties or Outrecruits WSU in Westside metros.

Then WSU wins 17,18,19,20,21 games, CBI/NIT/NCAA's

Then UW wins 25,26,27 games, goes to Elite 8, Final 4, Final 2 of NCAA's

Then UW outrecruits, blows WSU out of the Westside Metro recruiting Waters

Smith sees the writing on the wall, and either retires, coaches his last season at WSU, where WSU wins 19,20,21,22 games and a 2nd Round, Sweet 16 in NCAA's, or after doing that Smith gets hired by Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, etc.

I think that for about 5 to 10 years WSU could out recruit UW in the Westside Metros.

So I see WSU rising, and UW falling for the next 6 to 11 years.

I think thats a realistic, logical scenario. I think that could happen.

I am not saying its guaranteed to happen.

But what do you all think about the possibilities of WSU Rising, UW falling, and WSU out recruiting UW in the Westside Metros?
 

SaveFerris

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I don't see things significantly changing anytime soon. We will get some good ones like Lacy, Hawkinson, and Noah. However, look at Gonzaga over the years. With all their success they probably have had similar results over in Seattle the last 20-ish years.

I like Smith's approach to basically focusing on the globe. Find the most talented players that want to be in Pullman.
 

jourdand

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Huskies have a good recruiting class so far this year. A 4 star and kid from the Africa NBA academy plus 2 solid guys out of the portal. They really sucked last year and it was great but they won’t be down long Hopkins is a good coach imo.
 

etowncoug

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Huskies have a good recruiting class so far this year. A 4 star and kid from the Africa NBA academy plus 2 solid guys out of the portal. They really sucked last year and it was great but they won’t be down long Hopkins is a good coach imo.

I used to think Hopkins was a good coach but the last two seasons hint that Hopkins is a below average coach and Thybulle was an exceptional college player who was a perfect fit for the system.
 

SaveFerris

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I used to think Hopkins was a good coach but the last two seasons hint that Hopkins is a below average coach and Thybulle was an exceptional college player who was a perfect fit for the system.
Not only the talent but also the experience Hopkins inherited. It sounds like he hasn't managed the youth well the last couple of years. They are calling this offseason a "cultural reset". That's what can happen to a first time head coach. Strengths as an assistant aren't necessarily the same as what a head coach needs to do.

Talent is rarely the issue in Seattle. They will get their share but in this case I'm not sold on Hopkins. It's a problem if it took this long to figure out what he was doing wasn't working.
 

mikalalas

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I don't see things significantly changing anytime soon. We will get some good ones like Lacy, Hawkinson, and Noah. However, look at Gonzaga over the years. With all their success they probably have had similar results over in Seattle the last 20-ish years.

I like Smith's approach to basically focusing on the globe. Find the most talented players that want to be in Pullman.

Maybe your right. You make some good points. If WSU cant out recruit UW, I dont think WSU gets , settles for the left overs like the Lacy's, Noah's. I think WSU would at least Semi Tie UW in Westside recruiting. Meaning, say if there are 3,4 Eason's, Champs, etc, in 1 class, from the westside, and they dont go outside the state, then I think UW would get 2,3 of them, and WSU would get 1,2 of them, instead of WSU getting none of them, and UW getting all of them, like in the past.

I see your point about Gonzaga. But back then Gonzaga wasnt as successful as it is now and wasnt a successful P5 program back then.

I think Gonzaga this or next recruiting period will go thru the Westside, take whoever they want, if there is anybody worth Gonzaga taking, and will leave UW the left over scraps.

Also back then, UW wasnt Paul Graham bad at only 5 wins.
 

mikalalas

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Huskies have a good recruiting class so far this year. A 4 star and kid from the Africa NBA academy plus 2 solid guys out of the portal. They really sucked last year and it was great but they won’t be down long Hopkins is a good coach imo.

UW does have a good recruiting class so far.

But 50% to 63% to 75% of the team is in the Transfer Portal according to Wilner.

50% to 63% to 73% of those UW players in the Transfer Portal will probably leave UW.

Thats probably going to lead to 33% to 50% of UW's class de commiting, going elsewhere.

UW might end up with 1, 4 star, 1 from the Transfer Portal, and may or may not keep the Africa NBA Academy, but they will probably have to get some 3 star left over scraps from the highschool ranks, and transfer portal, to replace those about 4 to 7 to 10, 50% to 63% to 73% of UW players that are in the Transfer Portal, that leave UW via the Transfer Portal.
 
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mikalalas

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I used to think Hopkins was a good coach but the last two seasons hint that Hopkins is a below average coach and Thybulle was an exceptional college player who was a perfect fit for the system.

Yeah Wilner isnt sold on Hopkins, and UW.

In a article of Wilners, where he grades the Pac 12 teams following the Pac 12 NCAA success:

He put WSU in the CANT WAIT UNTIL NEXT, THIS COMING SEASON category.

He put UW in the LOOK OUT BELOW(Meaning that those below UW should look out, as UW going to fall), category grade.

Wilner said UW is a MESS, and Expects UW to be a MESS for the next about 2,3,4 years. He expects Hopkins to be fired, for it to take a slow time to turn it around. And for UW to continue to have a couple, few LOSING seasons. He Wilner said that about 50% to 63% to 73% of the UW team was in the Transfer Portal to leave UW. Wilner wasnt that impressed with UW's recruiting class. According to Wilner, he thinks its DARK days ahead for UW. Wilner was extremely NEGATIVE on, about UW.

And I agree with a lot of the points Wilner made about UW.
 

mikalalas

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UW does have a good recruiting class so far.

But 50% to 63% to 75% of the team is in the Transfer Portal according to Wilner.

50% to 63% to 73% of those UW players in the Transfer Portal will probably leave UW.

Thats probably going to lead to 33% to 50% of UW's class de commiting, going elsewhere.

UW might end up with 1, 4 star, 1 from the Transfer Portal, and may or may not keep the Africa NBA Academy, but they will probably have to get some 3 star left over scraps from the highschool ranks, and transfer portal, to replace those about 4 to 7 to 10, 50% to 63% to 73% of UW players that are in the Transfer Portal, that leave UW via the Transfer Portal.
Unless Hopkins Pulls a Kyle Smith, and Miraculously rerecruits, gets all the players that are set to leave UW that are in the Transfer Portal, gets them to stay, this situation is going to lead to about 1,2,3 more bad, losing seasons.

This is what us WSU fans dreaded, faced, when WSU had about 9 of its players set to leave WSU via the Transfer Portal, and thankfully, Smith was able to get them all to stay.

Somehow I dont think Hopkins is going to be abke to pull a Kyle Smith and get the about 9 players in the Transfer Portal that are set to leave UW, to stay.

I could be wrong tho, but dont think so.
 

Coug1990

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Huskies have a good recruiting class so far this year. A 4 star and kid from the Africa NBA academy plus 2 solid guys out of the portal. They really sucked last year and it was great but they won’t be down long Hopkins is a good coach imo.
They have almost always had great recruiting classes under Hopkins. He has recruited numerous five star and four star players in the years he has been there. Even the three star players were mostly high three star players. Last years team had five star Green, four star Bejema, four star Brooks, four star Bey, four star Battle, and four star Wright. I thought he was a good coach after he did well his first two years and had been pulling in great classes. Now, I am in the prove it to me camp.
 

mikalalas

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They have almost always had great recruiting classes under Hopkins. He has recruited numerous five star and four star players in the years he has been there. Even the three star players were mostly high three star players. Last years team had five star Green, four star Bejema, four star Brooks, four star Bey, four star Battle, and four star Wright. I thought he was a good coach after he did well his first two years and had been pulling in great classes. Now, I am in the prove it to me camp.

I think Hopkins is comparable to Eastman, Bone.

Eastman and Bone had some pretty awesome 3.5 star/4 star recruits.

Bone got Que: 4 star, Ike Iroegbu: 4 star, Lacy: 3.5 star, Isabel: 4.5 star(I give Bone credit for Isabel, because it was Kent that STUPIDLY FORCED Isabel out.), Reggie Moore: 3.5 star

Eastman, Bone INHERITED a lot, lived on borrowed light, and did awesome, recruited well at the beginning, before doing horribly bad later.

Hopkins is like that. He inherited a lot. He was living on borrowed light, which enabled him to have the awesome recruiting classes, his first 2,3 years.

Then like Eastman, Bone, once the Talent he inherited was gone, and once his one and done talent he recruited was gone, then thats why he only won 5 games.

A lot of the remaining 4 star, 3.5 star, 5 star players he has left are LEAVING UW VIA THE TRANSFER PORTAL, as he has about 9 players in the Transfer Portal set to leave UW.

His program is in a TOTAL SHAMBLES, MESS right now. He will probably lose 4,5,6 of the 9 players in the Transfer Portal, set to leave. He will probably have at least 1 DECOMMITMENT if not more, and he will probably have to SCRAMBLE, RUSH, grab the left over LOW END 3 STAR LEFT OVER SCRAPS from the HS ranks and Transfer Portal, to replace at least 1 probable decommitment, and 4,5,6 probably leaving via the Transfer Portal Players.

Its a MESS, SHAMBLES, and ALL THE WHEELS are falling off the UW Bus, program.

This will lead to at least 1, if not 1,2 more 7 win to 10 win to 13 win seasons, Hopkins maybe getting fired, and if not fired, then 2,3,4,5 seasons to fix this, turn this around, as this recruiting class, and his next recruiting class is not good.

Also I question his evaluation ability, as some of his 4 stars, 5 stars have had bad attitudes, etc, which has helped cause the 5 win season.

Hopkins will recruit good in the future, but probably not this year, next year, and the year after.

At least he Hopkins is going to have to prove it, and I wont believe it until if he does prove it.

And I am not the only one who thinks, knows this.

Wilner and other pundits, experts, thinks, knows this as well.
 

etowncoug

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They have almost always had great recruiting classes under Hopkins. He has recruited numerous five star and four star players in the years he has been there. Even the three star players were mostly high three star players. Last years team had five star Green, four star Bejema, four star Brooks, four star Bey, four star Battle, and four star Wright. I thought he was a good coach after he did well his first two years and had been pulling in great classes. Now, I am in the prove it to me camp.
UW's access to talent leads coaches to fall in love with hype. It's like they think they can just roll the ball out and win most nights. Talent is great, but fit and buy in are just as important. How they didn't go all in on Noah Williams when Ernie Kent wasn't excited about him is beyond me. He's perfect for that zone. Elleby would have been a great add too.

There is too much talent in Seattle to have UW be a perennial doormat. But until they find someone who can either recruit to a system or adapt his style to the skillet of his team, they will consistently underperform in Mountlake.
 
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SaveFerris

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UW's access to talent leads coaches to fall in love with hype. It's like they think they can just roll the ball out and win most nights. Talent is great, but fit and buy in are just as important. How they didn't go all in on Noah Williams when Ernie Kent wasn't excited about him is beyond me. He's perfect for that zone. Elleby would have been a great add too.

There is too much talent in Seattle to have UW be a perennial doormat. But until they find someone who can either recruit to a system or adapt his style to the skillet of his team, they will consistently underperform in Mountlake.
The brandx dub mod has posted they were looking at Noah but implied his attitude was considered a risk of some sort. I guess they preferred players like Naz Carter? I think they just missed like everyone else including Kent.

Is anyone surprised they didn't go after Aiken? Another player that would seem to fit their zone. I think all these players made the right choice and not just because I'm biased. All Hopkins has seemed to care about is the stars by the players name. I agree with etown. Every player Smith has offered I have been able to answer why? I think Hopkins is still figuring it out and now he has to do it with a lot less shine that he's some kind of coaching guru..
 
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CougSinceBirth

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Maybe your right. You make some good points. If WSU cant out recruit UW, I dont think WSU gets , settles for the left overs like the Lacy's, Noah's. I think WSU would at least Semi Tie UW in Westside recruiting. Meaning, say if there are 3,4 Eason's, Champs, etc, in 1 class, from the westside, and they dont go outside the state, then I think UW would get 2,3 of them, and WSU would get 1,2 of them, instead of WSU getting none of them, and UW getting all of them, like in the past.

I see your point about Gonzaga. But back then Gonzaga wasnt as successful as it is now and wasnt a successful P5 program back then.

I think Gonzaga this or next recruiting period will go thru the Westside, take whoever they want, if there is anybody worth Gonzaga taking, and will leave UW the left over scraps.

Also back then, UW wasnt Paul Graham bad at only 5 wins.
GU doesn't need to recruit Seattle to be successful. Their international pipeline more than makes up for skipping Seattle talent.
 

mikalalas

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GU doesn't need to recruit Seattle to be successful. Their international pipeline more than makes up for skipping Seattle talent.

TRUE, GU does not NEED to recruit Seattle, Portland, Westside Metro, and can SKIP that.

But just because you CAN do something, does NOT mean you SHOULD do something, just because you can do something.

If the Seattle, Portland Metro, were to Produce a Shaq, Wroten, Beauchamp, etc, and if that player wasnt gona be scooped up by a Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Kansas, etc, and If Gonzaga had a chance at those, that player(s), you mean to tell me that almost Unbeaten Gonzaga, NCAA's Final 2, Mark Few, would pass on that, not take that away from UW, and skip that, for a international player?

HOGWASH.

Gonzaga would take that player from UW.

Most ofvthe time your right, that Gonzaga recruits all over the place, and internationally.

But if the OPPORTUNITY presents itself, Gonzaga has no qualms raiding UW's Westside Metro Turf for a player, if that player is good enough, and if Gonzaga has a chance at that player.

Gonzaga doesnt just COMPLETELY IGNORE the Westside Metro area.
 

CougSinceBirth

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GU probably does the one pass through. They've done an obvious good job at quality over quantity.

Kids like Paolo Banchero see a Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina offer and they're out the door.
 
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cr8zyncalif

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I'll say the same thing about Hopkins as hoops coach at UW as I've said about Helton as FB coach at SC. Both schools are in denial and are making a conscious decision to limit themselves so long as they stay with less than fully competent HC's. That is fine. I hope they keep up with that for a while.
 

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