My kid made it!
Btw... family coming in to town checked out hotels in the area. As a for instance.. motel 6 in Lewiston 600 bucks a night. I can see making your money while you can but good Lord.
They're all staying in Spokane and driving the hour and a half.

With the spring practice done and a lot of uncertainty ahead, I decided to look at what Massey's computer ratings had to say about our upcoming season. Bear in mind that it's likely to be completely wrong because it looks at the past for its calculations and has no idea of how offseason roster changes will impact things. That said...here are the results that his model is predicting for the 2024 Cougs:

Portland St: 45-14
Texas Tech: 27-28
Washington: 24-33
San Jose St: 35-21
@ Boise St: 28-26
@ Fresno St: 31-26
Hawaii: 38-14
@ SDSU: 31-21
Utah St: 38-20
@ New Mexico: 38-17
@ Oregon St: 24-31
Wyoming: 34-20

He is predicting a 9-3 finish with a couple close road wins after a rough start. Texas Tech is a hard one to figure out. They beat a pretty decent KU team that was 7-2 and ranked in the Top 25 at the time. They thumped Cal in their bowl game....who beat us. They also struggled against the rest of the 5 and 6 win teams on their schedule and those games ended up being the last one with the ball wins. The Husky prediction is clearly based on last year's team but given our last ten years against the mutts...it's hard to argue against the result.

A little surprised by the prediction for us to beat both Boise State and Fresno State on the road. Frankly, I don't see us getting both of those wins. 9-3 would be a nice bridge season for us.

BTW, the computer is saying that Oregon State goes 11-1 with their only loss to Oregon.

Kids will never learn. I did dumb stuff growing up but not like this.

Guess he got enough of the east coast.

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Ok guys. This non-autonomy relegation is a bummer but not surprising or undeserved. Why should the Pac-2 get voting power equivalent to the 12-14-18 (I can't keep track) team P4?

So. Let's quit F-ing around hoping for a Big-12 invite (they don't want us and it would suck anyway), or some far-flung ACC restructure (won't happen, it would REALLY suck and they don't want us anyway).

Do the reverse merger with the Mtn West ASAP before one or more of them gets plucked out from under us. Save a few bucks on our 2025 affiliation option and - wow - maybe actually share in some media money and NCAA allocations to be earned in '25 and later. Won't cost us a dime and will save money as we jettison most of all of the Pac-2 Administration in favor of Gloria and gang.

Salvage what we can from the current bowl affiliations before contracts expire in 2026. Which makes it imperative that we move SOON. Alamo, Holiday, Sun and Vegas in order of preference/payout. With San Diego and Las Vegas as new Pac-12/14 hometowns, we may stand a chance of keeping the Holiday and Vegas. Sun Bowl can go away IMHO.

Stretch the cash windfall out as far as we can as we readjust. Don't forget the NCAA BB payouts in years 3-6, which we get only if the Pac remains in existence.

I am aware that the above concept has never been thrown out by the All-Knowing and Superior-Intellect Loyal One, so I favor you all by spelling it out here. Feel free to chime in with roaring approval.

I for one, believe this accurate. Make the most sense.

FSU and Clemson to go to SEC in 2025. ACC gets a new TV deal until 2036. My opinion is this opens the door for ACC western expansion...put Cougs and Beavs in the front seat to merge with the ACC.
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If ESPN is thinking strategic, they make that ACC TV deal "pro-rata" to add former Pac-12 teams. I think Utah would come back. ASU and UA, likely depend on other political factors.

About Matteer’s arm.

Jon Wilner
April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am Updated April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. … Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the odds of a reverse merger between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 versus the Pac-12 simply poaching a selection of Mountain West schools to rebuild the conference? — @MarcSheehan006

It hinges, in part, on your definition of a reverse merger. But generally, we see three possible outcomes:

• All 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West and join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12.

• At least nine but not all 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West — a super-majority vote is required — and they join the Pac-12, leaving a few behind.

the latest from jon wilner​

• Between four and eight schools give notice that they are leaving the Mountain West in the summer of 2026 to join the Pac-12, a scenario that leads to departure fees for the outbound schools and a poaching penalty for the Pac-12.

The top candidates to leave are fairly clear and would bring competitive success, media value or both: San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV.

The schools in jeopardy of getting left behind would be some combination of Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, Wyoming and San Jose State, depending on the number of spots available.

Air Force and New Mexico fall into a middle tier, in our view.

Which scenario is most likely?

That would depend entirely on who else is available.

Washington State and Oregon State would prefer that another round of realignment creates a path into the ACC or Big 12 or some larger combination of those two conferences.

The next-best scenario for the ‘Pac-2’ schools would entail an ACC implosion that results in Cal and Stanford joining WSU and OSU in a rebuilt Pac-12. (In that case, the reconfigured conference would target only a few schools in the Mountain West.)

The third scenario would leave WSU and OSU with no path into the ACC or Big 12 and no possibility of Stanford and Cal returning. They would be forced to think bigger than a reverse merger with the Mountain West.

They would consider Gonzaga as a non-football member.

They would explore enlarging the conference footprint to include schools in Texas, with UTSA as an intriguing target.

They might even entertain the idea of creating a bicoastal league with schools in the Eastern Time Zone.

Keep in mind an essential element to the calculation: The Mountain West’s media deal with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the deadline for the emergence of a rebuilt Pac-12.

The media rights strategy will inform expansion decisions for WSU and OSU, and vice versa. The ‘Pac-2’ will attempt to create the most valuable entity possible.

And quantity doesn’t always equal value.

Are we overestimating the likelihood of a reverse merger? The Mountain West may not have a 100-year legacy, but it’s their legacy. — @Moneyline_RAY

Yes and no.

At this point, the likelihood of WSU and OSU executing a reverse merger, with either nine or all 12 Mountain West schools is less than 50-50.

But the chances of WSU and OSU partnering with some combination of Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner is close to 90%. Unless there’s a path into the ACC or Big 12, the Cougars and Beavers won’t have any other option.

Granted, we should not discount the possibility of WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West in a traditional expansion move.

But in our view — and despite everything that has unfolded in the past two years — the Pac-12 name and intellectual property are more valuable than the Mountain West name and intellectual property.

(How much more valuable? We can’t quantify the amount.)

And here’s one more piece to consider: Central to the long-haul strategy in Pullman and Corvallis is providing a landing spot in case the NCAA undergoes a massive restructuring — the formation of a super league, for instance — and several of the departing universities consider reversing course.

In that case, an active, competitive conference using the Pac-12 name would be more attractive.

Sponsored​

We keep hearing the ‘Pac-2’ schools have a two-year grace period under NCAA rules. But don’t they really have 12 or 14 months to formalize their plan? — @erikmiletich

Your timeframe is about right. In order for a rebuilt Pac-12 to emerge in the summer of 2026, the process for adding schools would need to begin sometime next summer.

The ‘Pac-2′ schools don’t necessarily need a formal media rights agreement in place by that point. But they would need to have the membership piece locked down.

The other element, of course, is the Mountain West’s penalty structure. Our understanding is that schools would owe approximately $18 million if they give more than 12 months’ notice and roughly $35 million if they give less than 12 months’ notice.

So, let’s mark June 30, 2025, as the Hotline’s unofficial deadline for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their next move.

Can you interview former Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to follow up on the conversation from the ‘Canzano and Wilner’ podcast from the fall of 2022? What went wrong? — @mlondo856

I would love to and, in fact, have made several attempts in the past nine months to interview Kliavkoff. He’s not interested. Radio silence is his preferred approach.

But it’s not just the Hotline. Kliavkoff has not uttered a public peep since the conference imploded on Aug. 4. No offerings of regret or remorse. No apology to WSU, OSU and fans across the footprint.

As we wrote when his term concluded at the end of February, Kliavkoff doesn’t believe he has reason to apologize, according to sources.

He blames the collapse entirely on the presidents’ poor leadership, the difficult circumstances he inherited (from Larry Scott), and the schools’ refusal to accept the Apple deal he placed before them.

His stance is, of course, ludicrous. Of course he bears some responsibility.

But he has the right to remain silent.

Any estimates on how much former Oregon State tailback Damien Martinez will make now that he’s in the transfer portal? — @bdgiddens6

Our guess is that Martinez lands a deal in the mid-six-figure range, so anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000.

How much will be guaranteed? How much will the agreement lean into incentives? We can’t answer and don’t really care.

Money played a factor in Martinez’s decision to enter the transfer portal, but it wasn’t the only factor.

He wants the largest platform possible for his final season in order to prove to NFL scouts that he’s worthy of being a high-round draft pick.

The stouter the competition, the better.

In that regard, his decision was comparable to Jonathan Smith’s move to Michigan State. They craved competition, exposure and resources on a higher level.

We remain optimistic about Oregon State’s long-haul status in college football and basketball — the industry will eventually restructure to the point that the ‘Pac-2’ schools are on the same tier as many schools remaining in the power conferences.

But the next few years will be brutally, indisputably difficult.

Do you think the current state of NIL is broken? If so, how would you fix it if you were head of the NCAA? — @BennyL1986

It has been broken from Day One, July 1, 2021, when the NCAA prohibited schools from participating in the NIL process, thereby ensuring the booster-run collectives would control the marketplace.

Not quite three years later, the NCAA is moving toward a complete policy reversal and permitting athletic departments to broker the deals between the athletes and their business partners.

The shift will add oversight but won’t dampen the market.

What might bring some sanity?

If athletes are declared employees and paid salaries by the schools — we think that step is inevitable in the next two or three years — the impact of NIL opportunities on recruiting and transfer decisions could diminish slightly.

Like so much else about college sports, NIL is an absolute mess.

Why do you hate on Washington football so much? — @jakekwood

There is no hate. The Hotline doesn’t hate any team or school. We don’t even dislike any team or school.

Picking against a team to win during the season does not indicate an inherent bias.

All the fans who believe I’m anti-Husky because of the weekly picks seem to have forgotten that I projected Washington to win the Pac-12 championship eight months before the season began.

UW’s march to the title made the Hotline look smart. Given all the times my predictions are wrong, I’m never opposed to being right.

What do you think of the Ivy League? How does it fit into your assessment of the college athletic scene? — Lawrence Grant

When we think of the Ivy League these days, we think of irony.

With its absence of scholarships and heavy emphasis on academics, the Ivy is closer to the NCAA ideal of amateurism than any other conference in Division I.

And yet, it’s at the center of the revolution, courtesy of the Dartmouth basketball team voting to unionize.

With an assist from the National Labor Relations Board, the Green Wave voted 13-2 last month to join Service Employees International Union Local 560.

The process will take time to play out. But if successful, the players would form the first labor union in college athletics.

Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com

We hired coach Arbuckle based on his vertical passing scheme and Cam Ward's abilities, but this is going to be an interesting season to watch how adaptable he is as a coach.

My biggest takeaway from the Spring Game is that we appear to be better suited for a power RPO attack than we are for a 4 WR pocket offense. Mateer is an excellent athlete and possesses a uniquely tough vertical running ability at the QB position. We also appear to have 3 solid RB's and a couple of good TE's.

I wouldn't typically be optimistic about our chances at lining up in the P12 with a heavier RPO offense, but this year's schedule is flush with MWC opponents, and I think we might better suited to a lower risk, North/South attack as opposed to trotting out 4 WRs and playing to what I don't see as Mateer's strength.

With all of realignment stuff that happened and the future uncertainties, there's definitely a dark cloud over our fan base, but this is an important bridge year for us. Crap schedule or not, it would be super helpful if we could post an 8-4 (or better) record and snag an early season win over Texas Tech or UW.

Here is an interesting analytics article that also has a Coug focus.

Imagine a high-level analytics ninja who learned his data science refining risk metrics and variables for insurance companies with billions of dollars on the line becoming a diehard basketball fan and beginning to chase that powerful, palpable, but elusive thing that every player, fan, and coach has sensed and loved when watching great teams play — chemistry.

Can a coach measure chemistry? It used to be a thing coaches worked to develop over years as different recruiting classes grew up together. But in the age of NIL deals and constant roster musical chairs (thanks to the transfer portal), that process has to accelerate or die. Could a coach select for maximum chemistry within a new roster?

“Absolutely, yes,” Jack said. “That’s what I chase.”

Washington State basketball’s 'Moneyball' moment | Blaze Media

The setting was a November home basketball game for the Washington State Cougars in Pullman, Washington. Warm-ups were over, the Stars and Stripes had been formally acknowledged, and starters had been introduced. My teenage son and I took our seats along the sideline, feet happily on the...

www.theblaze.com

Starts at the 51 minute mark.
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The relationship with his coaches was terrible. He wasn't supportive and didn't communicate to them. Wasn't accessible.

Perhaps, Chun jumped ship. The way Schulz could force him out is say we can't afford your current salary....give him the choice.

Brynn McGaughy, a 6-foot-3 forward is the No. 17 prospect in the Class of 2025.

Sounds like this young lady could be an immediate impact player for Coach Ethridge

Hopefully Isaiah Watts (& Donald) have some influence here. I believe he has until May 1 to decide whether he stays in the draft.

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On Brand X. Interesting quotes from him -
"all in" on NBA (a combine invite or not will clear that up IMHO), doesn't want to come back to college, but if so WSU would be in the mix. Loved/loves his time here.

If the NBA doesn't pan out, he would really rip it up in the HS gym league in Riley's offense. Hey Cougar NIL - at least make an offer that would give him a very comfortable last year at WSU. Can't even begin to compete with other schools on this, but a stellar last year and his multimillion-dollar NBA future would be set. If he's not keen on college anyway, at least we would be a comfy place to hang out. Do kinda wonder about his grades, could that be a quiet factor?

I still think the Bears should have dealt #1, but picking up Odunze at 9 was good. They’ve got targets and a legitimate run threat now…too bad they still don’t have an OL.

Not sure what the Falcons are thinking. Cousins is a bit of a gamble on a rebuilt Achilles…and now they spend #8 on a kid with rebuilt knees? It could work out for them in a Favre-Rogers way…but it’s a huge roll of the dice.

Broncos….I don’t really have an issue with picking up Nix at 12. Could be a high value pick there. But WTH did they trade for Zach Wilson?

Seahawks…getting Byron Murphy at 16 seems like a steal. But I feel like he’s a bit undersized for an NFL DT, and might not last long