RU v WSU

[MikeFingLeach]

This is merely pre-season conjecture from a fan (me) who doesn't claim to have the esteemed football IQ that some posters on here like to boast about. I don't blame you for disagreeing with me, because I'm often wrong about my WSU predictions.

I'm simply using common prognostication data points as to why I think Rutgers has a greater margin for error.

1. Rutgers is the home team in an early season, cross country matchup. Vegas typically awards 3-4 points to home teams right off the bat.
2. Rutgers utilizes an offense that doesn't have as many moving parts as ours. QB under center, 2 tight ends at times, play-action. If we bottle up their running game, we'll have a great chance. If we don't.....
3. Relating to point #2, I have concerns about how we match up defensively in this game. Most of Spring/Fall camp is focused on defending sideline to sideline, Pac-12 offenses, defending the pass, rushing the passer, etc. Our defensive line is not built to stop North/South teams, and playing a power rushing team on the road in week 2 could be troubling.
4. Special teams. I hate to continually beat this horse, but until we show improvement, this is a huge disadvantage for us. If Rutgers gets 3-4 points for being the home team and 6 points for having a superior special teams, there's the margin of error I was referring to.
5. Rutgers will not be overconfident in this game. I grew up on the East Coast, and in many ways, Rutgers has a chip on their shoulder similar to WSU and Oregon State. They've had their fair share of success, but they are the small fish in the big pond. New Jersey / New York is a professional sports dominated area. Rutgers and Boston College both face similar challenges in that regard. Nobody really cares about their programs unless they're playing Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc.

Still, I'm not conceding this game to Rutgers. We haven't yet seen the complete Mike Leach offense, but this could be the year that we start games by scoring 5 TD's on our first 6 drives and nickel and dime teams to death with our short passing game, similar to what Leach did at Tech. Your yin/yang point is valid. If our offensive line performs the way we think they will, and Rutgers has the issues in their secondary some are predicting, they could be in for a long day of chasing our WR's around.

Good comments Patrol. Vegas disagrees with you by 4.5 pts. Rutgers opened as a 5.5 pt fav over WSU.

This will be a close game much like last yr. Hopefully WSU forces Rutgers to make the crucial mistake this time.

 

[YakiCoug]

Good comments Patrol. Vegas disagrees with you by 4.5 pts. Rutgers opened as a 5.5 pt fav over WSU.

This will be a close game much like last yr. Hopefully WSU forces Rutgers to make the crucial mistake this time.

The first thing I noticed in last year's game was Rutgers' line physical line play. They needed only one guy to manhandle Pole, which allowed another lineman to peel off and obliterate Monroe numerous times. Cooper, for the most part, was pushed around. Hence, Paul James' 173 yards rushing. Many of Mitch Peterson's 16 tackles were from behind in pursuit of an escaping running back.
With a new QB, Rutgers probably will go with the same approach, unless Tracy Clark somehow sneaks into the game.

 

[CougPatrol]

Until our defense proves otherwise, I think it's fair to assume that we may need to score 40+ points to win.

 

[SCglory]

I think Rutgers' secondary is going to surprise people. I don't think it will stop Washington State, but I expect Rutgers to challenge WSU's passing game. Rutgers returns everyone except the strong safety, but he's been replaced by a 4 star transfer from Miami (Fla.). Last year everyone questioned the unit because they finished 120th against the pass in 2013, so why not question them for 2014. The WSU game didn't help at the beginning of the 2014 season, but they did get better and finished 69th against the pass. This an experience unit now and they still don't have any seniors in the group. It's mostly juniors and red-shirt sophomores this year.

If a Leach-conceived passing game is ever going to stumble, it has been mainly because of either the QB is making bad reads, or the defense really limits the receivers to yards after catch. Just my 02 worth, but it's really, really hard to stop the catches themselves if the QB is making the right reads. But if Rutgers can take a normally 5-7 yd pass, and turn it into a 3-4 yard pass, that is a different ballgame.

 

[Geoduck12]

If RU does try to shrink those passes to 3-4 yds, then Falk and WR's must then make them pay with several passes over top. You can't press and cover everything. If RU is successful doing what you describe and Falk doesn't make them pay, it will be another long day. If he makes them respect the medium and long ball the offense should be ok.

 

[CougPatrol]

If a Leach-conceived passing game is ever going to stumble, it has been mainly because of either the QB is making bad reads, or the defense really limits the receivers to yards after catch.

Yup. The fact that Rutgers returns only 3 starters on defense has to be viewed as a positive for WSU. I mentioned that I'm concerned that WSU's defense isn't geared to stop power rushing teams given the league we play in (and because we're still building the roster).

On the flip side, the same concerns have to be shared by Rutgers fans. Their defense is young, and like us, they're not set up to defend the wide open (air raid in our case) offenses of the pac-12. It's hard to imagine Rutgers not occasionally blowing assignments and missing tackles given how inexperienced they are.

I'm not the best prognosticator, but you have to expect that a fair amount of points will be scored in this one, much like last seasons matchup.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Yup. The fact that Rutgers returns only 3 starters on defense has to be viewed as a positive for WSU. I mentioned that I'm concerned that WSU's defense isn't geared to stop power rushing teams given the league we play in (and because we're still building the roster).

On the flip side, the same concerns have to be shared by Rutgers fans. Their defense is young, and like us, they're not set up to defend the wide open (air raid in our case) offenses of the pac-12. It's hard to imagine Rutgers not occasionally blowing assignments and missing tackles given how inexperienced they are.

I'm not the best prognosticator, but you have to expect that a fair amount of points will be scored in this one, much like last seasons matchup.

Why are people saying only 3 starters return?

DL starters who return: DT Darius Hamilton and DE Djwany Mera. DE/OLB Kemoko Turay wasn't a starter, but played enough to be named Freshmen All-American. Turay had 1.5 sacks last year against WSU. He'll start this year.

LB starters who return: WLB Steve Longa and SLB Quenton Gause. Rutgers gets a MLB grad transfer from South Carolina. Kawian Lewis started 2 of his 3 years at South Carolina.

DB starters who return: CB Nardir Barnwell and FS Delon Stephenson. Stephenson was the guy who recover the fumble on the punt and broke up the pass on 4th down to stop WSU's last drive of the game. The other CB has moved back to RB. The SS has been replaced by a 4 star transfer from U of Miami (Fla,).

All together Rutgers return 7 of the 9 DL who played last year. Now LB lacks experience with the backups. The secondary returns 6 guy who started at one time or another last year. The defense has enough experience with starters and backups not to be overlooked.

 

[YakiCoug]

Why are people saying only 3 starters return?

DL starters who return: DT Darius Hamilton and DE Djwany Mera. DE/OLB Kemoko Turay wasn't a starter, but played enough to be named Freshmen All-American. Turay had 1.5 sacks last year against WSU. He'll start this year.

LB starters who return: WLB Steve Longa and SLB Quenton Gause. Rutgers gets a MLB grad transfer from South Carolina. Kawian Lewis started 2 of his 3 years at South Carolina.

DB starters who return: CB Nardir Barnwell and FS Delon Stephenson. Stephenson was the guy who recover the fumble on the punt and broke up the pass on 4th down to stop WSU's last drive of the game. The other CB has moved back to RB. The SS has been replaced by a 4 star transfer from U of Miami (Fla,).

All together Rutgers return 7 of the 9 DL who played last year. Now LB lacks experience with the backups. The secondary returns 6 guy who started at one time or another last year. The defense has enough experience with starters and backups not to be overlooked.

I'm assuming both transfers have already sat out a season and are now eligible to play? Thanks in advance.

 

[Geoduck12]

I believe Hester the DB from The U transferred last year, so he likely will have to sit out this year.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

I believe Hester the DB from The U transferred last year, so he likely will have to sit out this year.

Hester sat out last year and will play this year. Lewis is graduating next week (in 3 years) from South Carolina and will report to camp later that week. Lewis is eligible to play right away since he is a graduate.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

Rutgers is also breaking in a new offensive coordinator. While breaking in a new defensive coordinator is probably a good thing for WSU, Ralph Freidgen was a very good offensive coordinator for them. Hopefully, in breaking in a new QB and new OC they start out slow

Ralph Freidgen called a great game against WSU, but the new OC is QB coach Ben McDaniels and who game planned 3rd down situations right from the start of the season last year. About half way through the season it became clear Ralph wasn't coming back, so McDaniels took a bigger role. The Maryland and UNC games at the end of the season was mostly McDaniels playcalling. The move to McDaniels was already in play by the last 1/3 of the season. Freidgen is making good on year 2 of his contract by consulting. Ralph was at Rutgers for most of the spring to evaluate and give some advise. Freidgen will be back for the fall camp and a few times during the season in the same capacity. The grind everyday was too much at his age. Also, McDaniels has consulted with his brother Josh McDaniels of the Patriots kinda like Jim Harbaugh does with his father and brother.

On ESPN's Rutgers season predictions. Must say I'm somewhat surprised by the assumption. I think this should be a pretty competitive game.

"All four nonconference games (Norfolk State, Washington State, Kansas and Army) should be victories, but adding four more wins will take an upset or two in Big Ten play and a successful bowl trip. Rutgers may be improving, but proof might not show up in the win column until they get some more favorable matchups against West Division foes in the future."

I believe ESPN has picked Rutgers only twice in the last 10 years to have a winning season. Rutgers had only one losing season during that time (2010 Eric LeGrand spinal injury at the beginning of the season) while going bowling 9 of those 10 years. Don't put a lot in to the what ESPiN has to say unless you're part of the SEC or ACC. And for the record outside of Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconsin the rest of the Big Ten are about equal. Michigan has been a fraud most of the 5 or 6 years since HC Lloyd Carr was forced out. Part of the reason Rutgers and Maryland were invited to the Big Ten was because of its fertile recruiting area. The rest of the Big Ten needed a boost in talent and NJ and Maryland has it compared to Iowa, Minnesota or Indiana. I think some of the naysayer are living in the past with the Big Ten. Too concern with the name on the front of the jersey instead of the name on the back. These fools are doubling down just so they can say "I told you so."

 

[Coug1990]

Ralph Freidgen called a great game against WSU, but the new OC is QB coach Ben McDaniels and who game planned 3rd down situations right from the start of the season last year. About half way through the season it became clear Ralph wasn't coming back, so McDaniels took a bigger role. The Maryland and UNC games at the end of the season was mostly McDaniels playcalling. The move to McDaniels was already in play by the last 1/3 of the season. Freidgen is making good on year 2 of his contract by consulting. Ralph was at Rutgers for most of the spring to evaluate and give some advise. Freidgen will be back for the fall camp and a few times during the season in the same capacity. The grind everyday was too much at his age. Also, McDaniels has consulted with his brother Josh McDaniels of the Patriots kinda like Jim Harbaugh does with his father and brother."

In my opinion, that makes absolutely zero sense. Not saying that what you are not saying is not true, but I would have to have another source to believe this. I am not trying to argue with you either. The previous OC was fired and Friedgen was brought in to be the OC last season. Now you are telling me that even though he was successful, that Rutgers was transitioning away from him in 2015 in order to be better prepared in 2016? Coaches worry about the short term in season. That is why I am having a hard time believing this.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

In my opinion, that makes absolutely zero sense. Not saying that what you are not saying is not true, but I would have to have another source to believe this. I am not trying to argue with you either. The previous OC was fired and Friedgen was brought in to be the OC last season. Now you are telling me that even though he was successful, that Rutgers was transitioning away from him in 2015 in order to be better prepared in 2016? Coaches worry about the short term in season. That is why I am having a hard time believing this.

Rutgers offered Friedgen the year before, but he said health, wife and family were more important at the time. Former Kansas State HC signed on as the OC instead. At the end of the season OC Prince left to go to Detroit Lions as the TE coach. He wasn't fired. This time Friedgen said yes to be the OC. After spring ball there were rumors Friedgen was having second thoughts. The word was the time commitment was too much for someone of his age and health condition. Friedgen work load was eased going into the season. He didn't recruit off campus, had his work hours reduced and used McDaniels as he mouthpiece. When Friedgen was given the game ball after the Maryland game it confirmed the rumors about his leaving. Friedgen thanked the team for his last visit to Maryland and coming out with a victory. He went on to say he had been talking for weeks to Rutgers HC about stepping down after the season and finishing out his contract as a consultant for Rutgers. It became official the day after the bowl game.

 

[Mariner_Rick]

I have to hand it to Rutgers,last year they made a play on the ball and they got a fumble.If the Cougs don't turn the ball over they are in perfect position to score and put the game away. Rutgers went on to win 8 games and made a bowl.

The Cougs need to develop a killer instinct,Countless times over the last several years they just can't put the game away and lose games they could win.Rutgers,Cal,CSU in the Bowl,CU,all games the Cougs could have and should have won. No killer instinct. No wonder Rutgers is favored in this game.

The Cougs have the talent to win this game but it's not going to be easy,Longa, Carroo,Turay look like guys that will end up in the NFL. This game will tell us if the Cougs have a Killer Instinct at last.

Go Cougs.