If seen lots of posts In various places about cherry picking Big12 members who’d be good fits with the PAC. Can someone educate me on how this would go down? I thought they agreed to a new TV contract with the addition of Cinci, BYU, Houston and UCF or is there just a handshake agreement or a contract with no teeth for leaving the conference?
“Raiding” the Big12
- Thread starter COUGinNCW
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It's people being optimistic about the value of the Pac-12 brand vs the Big 12 brand. They are overlooking that 40% of our conference value departed with the LA schools. There's a reason why Pac-12 North members insisted that they play at least one of the LA schools every year.
I'm guessing that they haven't finalized the new TV deal with the other four schools involved so some kind of reshuffling could occur. That said, the media here in the Midwest view the Big 12 as hunting the Pac-12....not the other way around.
I am under the impression the Big-12 asked to open it's media rights up for negotiation last year and the networks said "no thanks."
Recent CBS article states their deal is up in 2025.
"Yormark enters the Big 12 at a tenuous point in college football history. The Big Ten and SEC are set to lap the rest of the sport in average revenue per school. Three years from now, the Big 12 will have some sort of new television contract"
www.cbssports.com
They now are publicly saying they are expanding, likely to 16, and my sense is you will see them go west and east (like Fresno and South Florida) to get into other TV markets that drive up their value.
Recent CBS article states their deal is up in 2025.
"Yormark enters the Big 12 at a tenuous point in college football history. The Big Ten and SEC are set to lap the rest of the sport in average revenue per school. Three years from now, the Big 12 will have some sort of new television contract"
Prioritizing football over NIL opportunities, Arch Manning may set new trend for top college prospects
For the Manning family, football always comes first
www.cbssports.com
They now are publicly saying they are expanding, likely to 16, and my sense is you will see them go west and east (like Fresno and South Florida) to get into other TV markets that drive up their value.
I'd rather the conference expand with the likes of Boise State, BYU, SDSU, and Fresno State. Yes, I'm aware that BYU signed with the B12, but perhaps the have an out?
What would you think of throwing SMU and Rice into the mix? Read a report earlier today that SMU might/should be considered because of being in Texas and huge TV markets. Viable private schools with world class academics. I could see those two along with SDSU and someone else.
Rice has legitimately great academics but it has a tiny enrollment and nobody cares about its sports programs, even in Texas. It's a great example of being in a good location but that not translating to a power conference-level program. It took several programs graduating to the Big 12 from the AAC for Rice to even get into the AAC.
If I could take any 6 schools to expand it would be:
SDSU
BYU
SMU
Houston
Texas Tech
TCU
Gives us a strong Texas presence while clipping the wings of the B12 to be a future threat. B12 dies so the Cougs can remain with the big boys. Seems like a fair trade.
Ewww. I hope nobody in power thinks like that. SDSU is the only one of those with any growth potential or recruiting exposure.
I’d swap Houston for Oklahoma state. UH is in a big market and draws nothing. I’d swap BYU for almost anyone. And I don’t think we should have interest in adding 4 mid-major programs. 2 at most, and only if offset by the addition of 2-4 P5 teams.
Houston has the potential to draw, especially in match ups against other Texas schools. They are in a big market and have plenty of room to expand their share. It's also important to get 4 Texas teams, forcing coverage of the P12 network into all those Texas homes. This also allows UT and A&M fans to pick up a second team within the state.
SMU gets you into Dallas and has plenty of room to grow. TCU does much the same but the fan base is much closer to being maxed out. Texas Tech is another WSU. They will be a draw if they field a winning team. But again, 4 teams from Texas gives 6 games each fall between Texas schools. Maybe swap Baylor for SMU but you get my point.
BYU is ratings gold. It's Mormon Notre Dame. This instantly becomes the team everyone loves to have and the Holy War becomes an important rivalry game each year.
SDSU is mostly about preventing the B12 from swooping in and grabbing some Cali schools. Without SDSU, FSU and SJSU don't really move the needle. But I also think SDSU could be more valuable than UCLA with proper outreach and a continuation of their winning ways.
The problem for KSU, ISU, Kansas and Oklahoma St is they aren't from fertile recruiting territory and they are from shrinking parts of the country. Same with WV. These brands will be less valuable 5 years from now than they are today.
This conference would have a lot of potential but would need the entire conference to up it's community outreach.
The move to P5 should support Houston drawing better, and would have done so even more before this latest round of conference shuffling.
How did they draw when they were in the SWC before that broke up? Assume that was a reason they were left behind.
Back then Houston wasn't what they are now.
Now Houston has a much better football program now then back then and Houston has a higher interest, viewership, etc,then back then.
In 1988-89, when they won 9 games per year and had a heisman winner at QB, they drew in the high teens and low 20s…except when Texas or Texas A&M came to town and they hit the mid-40s. No idea on TV viewers, my guess is they weren’t on TV very often.
In 2021 when they won 12 games, they mostly drew in the low 20s. They were just shy of 29K for the Memphis game. They averaged 232K TV viewers, which equates to about 10% of the city of Houston. Not what you could call a strong draw…but they get more viewers than Cal does.
Here are some viewship number of the programs being dicussed.
Most watched college football programs in 2021 per week
22. Oklahoma State — 1.58M
27. Iowa State — 1.219M
30. Baylor — 1.16M
41. TCU — 907K
42. BYU — 893K
45. Texas Tech — 798K
49. Boise State — 657K
50. Kansas State — 636K
55. Kansas — 540K
74. Houston — 232K
78. San Diego State — 198K
81. SMU — 164K
96. Nevada — 78K
99. Colorado State — 59K
100. San Jose State — 59K
104. Fresno State — 45K
107. UNLV — 34K
Few Pac teams
59. Washington State — 483K
Bottom two
69. Oregon State — 321K
76. California — 222K
Most watched college football programs in 2021 per week
22. Oklahoma State — 1.58M
27. Iowa State — 1.219M
30. Baylor — 1.16M
41. TCU — 907K
42. BYU — 893K
45. Texas Tech — 798K
49. Boise State — 657K
50. Kansas State — 636K
55. Kansas — 540K
74. Houston — 232K
78. San Diego State — 198K
81. SMU — 164K
96. Nevada — 78K
99. Colorado State — 59K
100. San Jose State — 59K
104. Fresno State — 45K
107. UNLV — 34K
Few Pac teams
59. Washington State — 483K
Bottom two
69. Oregon State — 321K
76. California — 222K
Hadn't seen this from Stewart Mandel/The Athletic ($) so apologies if already linked. Mandel thinks Pac 10 and Big 12 should merge into 4 pods with 6 teams each. I agree with the takeaway that “Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately,” former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told (Jon) Wilner.
Pacific Pod
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
UW
WSU
Mountain Pod
Arizona
ASU
BYU
Colorado
SDSU → New addition
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor → bleh!
Houston
OSU
SMU → New addition
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Cincinnati
Iowa State
KU
K-State
West Virginia
UCF
Teams would have 5 games w/in their pod and 1 with each of the other pods. Then a "twist" on the 9th game for the pod winners and into the championship game. I'm not sure about that but it's creative. I also might just go with 2 divisions with the winner of each going to a Championship game set in Vegas.
Building enough trust between the 2 left behind conferences is obviously a tough deal. Keeping the "top" teams from jumping is as well. However, at the moment this seems like the best path for all the programs left without a seat. I also believe from a "College football" model viability standpoint it maintains demand. However, I don't know how that would look to the rest of "G5" programs who would still end up left out.
theathletic.com
Pacific Pod
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
UW
WSU
Mountain Pod
Arizona
ASU
BYU
Colorado
SDSU → New addition
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor → bleh!
Houston
OSU
SMU → New addition
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Cincinnati
Iowa State
KU
K-State
West Virginia
UCF
Teams would have 5 games w/in their pod and 1 with each of the other pods. Then a "twist" on the 9th game for the pod winners and into the championship game. I'm not sure about that but it's creative. I also might just go with 2 divisions with the winner of each going to a Championship game set in Vegas.
Building enough trust between the 2 left behind conferences is obviously a tough deal. Keeping the "top" teams from jumping is as well. However, at the moment this seems like the best path for all the programs left without a seat. I also believe from a "College football" model viability standpoint it maintains demand. However, I don't know how that would look to the rest of "G5" programs who would still end up left out.
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
theathletic.com
Hadn't seen this from Stewart Mandel/The Athletic ($) so apologies if already linked. Mandel thinks Pac 10 and Big 12 should merge into 4 pods with 6 teams each. I agree with the takeaway that “Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately,” former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told (Jon) Wilner.
Pacific Pod
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
UW
WSU
Mountain Pod
Arizona
ASU
BYU
Colorado
SDSU → New addition
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor → bleh!
Houston
OSU
SMU → New addition
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Cincinnati
Iowa State
KU
K-State
West Virginia
UCF
Teams would have 5 games w/in their pod and 1 with each of the other pods. Then a "twist" on the 9th game for the pod winners and into the championship game. I'm not sure about that but it's creative. I also might just go with 2 divisions with the winner of each going to a Championship game set in Vegas.
Building enough trust between the 2 left behind conferences is obviously a tough deal. Keeping the "top" teams from jumping is as well. However, at the moment this seems like the best path for all the programs left without a seat. I also believe from a "College football" model viability standpoint it maintains demand. However, I don't know how that would look to the rest of "G5" programs who would still end up left out.
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
Almost everyone here agrees that a big 12 and Pac 12 Merger would be great in any form.
But that is semi unlikely to happen, because Big 12 is TRYING TO TARGET, RAID the PAC 12.
And here's the thing, IF the Pac 12 does not stabilize, EXPAND VIA adding teams like SDSU, SMU, raiding, cherry picking, killing Big 12, continue to have Pac 12 teams knee Jerked, panic, and not have them stop panicking, and not doing a alliance, joint media deal with ACC eventually, etc, IF ALL THAT THE BIG 12 WILL RAID, CHERRY PICK, KILL THE PAC 12.
ITS EITHER KILL THE BIG 12 OR BE KILLED BY BIG 12 EVENTUALLY.
There is still a chance that Big 12 could THEORETICALLY merge with the Pac 12, but that is either less likely, and less likely then a Pac 12/ACC Merger.
The only semi likely way I could see the Big 12 merging with the Pac 12, is it, when, if the Pac 12 does a alliance, joint media deal with the ACC, then gets 1,2+ big 12 teams, then merges with ACC, then Big 12 sees writing on wall and merges with the ACC, Pac 12 to form a 36+ team super conference.
If that does not happen then either the Pac 12 and ACC, kill off the Big 12 or the Big 12 will kill off the Pac 12.
A expectation, hope of a merger between the Big 12 and Pac 12 isn't as realistic, and probably not going to be realized, happen.
And SI, sports illustrated, and ACC, ESPN insiders, etc, have unofficially said that the Pac 12 and ACC and ESPN are talking, negotiating brokering a Pac 12, ACC Alliance, joint media deal, that has them doing intra conference games, and a championship 1 game playoff between the 2 conferences, to crown a Bi conference champion. That deal has NOT been FINALIZED, and are still talking.
Don't like raining on your merge with Big 12 parade, but what I'm saying is probably true.
It's an interesting idea. From a competitive standpoint, I kind of like the idea of leaving the 9th game as TBD, and seeding your 4 pod winners as 1 v. 4, 2 v. 3 to play into the conference championship. Sort of creates a mini-playoff. You can then pair off the remaining teams and have them play a roughly equal opponent from a different pod. No rematches. Or, maybe you pair off your remaining teams with the PAcific #2 against the Eastern #6 (etc.) and pad the schedule for the better teams. Still no rematches.Hadn't seen this from Stewart Mandel/The Athletic ($) so apologies if already linked. Mandel thinks Pac 10 and Big 12 should merge into 4 pods with 6 teams each. I agree with the takeaway that “Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately,” former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told (Jon) Wilner.
Pacific Pod
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
UW
WSU
Mountain Pod
Arizona
ASU
BYU
Colorado
SDSU → New addition
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor → bleh!
Houston
OSU
SMU → New addition
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Cincinnati
Iowa State
KU
K-State
West Virginia
UCF
Teams would have 5 games w/in their pod and 1 with each of the other pods. Then a "twist" on the 9th game for the pod winners and into the championship game. I'm not sure about that but it's creative. I also might just go with 2 divisions with the winner of each going to a Championship game set in Vegas.
Building enough trust between the 2 left behind conferences is obviously a tough deal. Keeping the "top" teams from jumping is as well. However, at the moment this seems like the best path for all the programs left without a seat. I also believe from a "College football" model viability standpoint it maintains demand. However, I don't know how that would look to the rest of "G5" programs who would still end up left out.
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
Problem is that then you're handing 2 of your best teams a loss in the last week of the season, which is going to seriously degrade the conference's shot at whatever the post-season looks like.
The other potential problem is that this means cutting the pie into a lot more pieces, but that pie isn't necessarily much bigger. Maybe the way to address that is to have this combined league deal with the ACC, and lock in some games between the conferences.
Hadn't seen this from Stewart Mandel/The Athletic ($) so apologies if already linked. Mandel thinks Pac 10 and Big 12 should merge into 4 pods with 6 teams each. I agree with the takeaway that “Both leagues would make more by working together than they would separately,” former Fox Sports executive Patrick Crakes told (Jon) Wilner.
Pacific Pod
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
OSU
UW
WSU
Mountain Pod
Arizona
ASU
BYU
Colorado
SDSU → New addition
Utah
Central Pod
Baylor → bleh!
Houston
OSU
SMU → New addition
TCU
Texas Tech
Eastern Pod
Cincinnati
Iowa State
KU
K-State
West Virginia
UCF
Teams would have 5 games w/in their pod and 1 with each of the other pods. Then a "twist" on the 9th game for the pod winners and into the championship game. I'm not sure about that but it's creative. I also might just go with 2 divisions with the winner of each going to a Championship game set in Vegas.
Building enough trust between the 2 left behind conferences is obviously a tough deal. Keeping the "top" teams from jumping is as well. However, at the moment this seems like the best path for all the programs left without a seat. I also believe from a "College football" model viability standpoint it maintains demand. However, I don't know how that would look to the rest of "G5" programs who would still end up left out.
How a Pac-12/Big 12 conference merger would play football
Here's how to organize and schedule a Big 12/Pac-12 merged conference. Looks pretty good!
I like it. Every team would have a strong home schedule and interesting away games for fans to travel to.
I like the competitiveness of each division.
But if you get decent matchups, the TV audience makes up for it. Nobody’s going to watch the matchups of 2-9 teams anyway. But pair up a couple 8-3 or 9-2 teams, you draw more eyes.
We know already that nobody cares all that much how many people are in the stands.
November home games vs. anyone other than a NW rival have always been attended poorly. I don’t think that will ever change.
Kansas is the only national brand in the Big 12. When you add in their Basketball program it changes everything. They are investing heavily in FB and will announce - this fall - a new stadium. Population means nothing if no one is watching - like the PAC, which is 5th in TV revenue, after the 4th place ACC.
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