10 Pac-12 Games in 23 Days

[SDCoug]

Makeup games are scheduled and now we have ten conference games in 23 days. Essentially three games a week over three weeks heading into the Pac-12 tournament.

That feels like a heavy load to me but perhaps that is because I’ve got too many years under my belt where we play only two a week and I’m not as in touch with the demands of basketball vs football.

Is this going to be tough on the team? Or is it a great opportunity to realistically build some momentum heading into post season play? Maybe both? Curious what you hoop gurus think.

 

[COUGinNCW]

Fortunately WSU has pretty good depth, especially with Dishon coming back. Now if it’s true that Jefferson K is out indefinitely that would put a lot of pressure on Roberts and Flowers to play major minutes so I guess they have good depth at the 2-5 but not at the 1. Maybe see Rice in 3 games so he can still Redshirt?

 

[Glad Cougar]

Fortunately WSU has pretty good depth, especially with Dishon coming back. Now if it’s true that Jefferson K is out indefinitely that would put a lot of pressure on Roberts and Flowers to play major minutes so I guess they have good depth at the 2-5 but not at the 1. Maybe see Rice in 3 games so he can still Redshirt?

Might be an opportunity for Ryan Rapp to get some minutes. He has experience at the point and experience overall. I actually think he can contribute more than Koulibaly was able to.

Glad Cougar

 

[COUGinNCW]

Fortunately WSU has pretty good depth, especially with Dishon coming back. Now if it’s true that Jefferson K is out indefinitely that would put a lot of pressure on Roberts and Flowers to play major minutes so I guess they have good depth at the 2-5 but not at the 1. Maybe see Rice in 3 games so he can still Redshirt?

Apparently they don’t have same redshirt rules for BB that they have for football so likely won’t see Rice. Rapp may have to play some critical minutes.

 

[Coug90]

Fortunately WSU has pretty good depth, especially with Dishon coming back. Now if it’s true that Jefferson K is out indefinitely that would put a lot of pressure on Roberts and Flowers to play major minutes so I guess they have good depth at the 2-5 but not at the 1. Maybe see Rice in 3 games so he can still Redshirt?

In this day in age of players bouncing from programs left and right, forget about redshirts. If you need to get minutes out of a guy you do it. No guarantee that player is even gonna be on your roster his 5th year anyways.

 

[roses04]

And 7 of the games are against teams in the top half of the conference, all with winning records. The easy part of the schedule is in the past. I think they have to go 6-4 or better to make the NCAA tournament. Needless to say a make or break stretch.

 

[Coug-Vandal]

And 7 of the games are against teams in the top half of the conference, all with winning records. The easy part of the schedule is in the past. I think they have to go 6-4 or better to make the NCAA tournament. Needless to say a make or break stretch.

I agree that we need to go at least 6-4 down the stretch to make the tourney. I think our depth will help and most of the Pac-12 will have a similar heavy load of games down the stretch. This team has had its frustrating moments but I'm also not sure we have reached our peak. So I like our chances.

 

[Coug-Vandal]

Lunardi has the Cougs back up to "the first four out" in his bracketology. So we clearly have a shot with a lot of games left.

 

[FnuLnu]

I agree that we need to go at least 6-4 down the stretch to make the tourney. I think our depth will help and most of the Pac-12 will have a similar heavy load of games down the stretch. This team has had its frustrating moments but I'm also not sure we have reached our peak. So I like our chances.

They will probably start out 1-4. Finishing 6-4 will be tough.

 

[roses04]

have 2 against the Beavs, dogs, plus ASU, those are 5 must wins, but winning them all probably won’t happen, then UO for 2, AZ, UCLA, USC, need 2 of those 5, which is difficult. This team has too keep getting better for that to happen, blowing leads late, or even giving up some has to stop. 10 point lead over Cal with 4 min to go and that game could have gone either way at the end, can’t allow that in any of these games, because all these teams a too good

 

[Coug90]

have 2 against the Beavs, dogs, plus ASU, those are 5 must wins, but winning them all probably won’t happen, then UO for 2, AZ, UCLA, USC, need 2 of those 5, which is difficult. This team has too keep getting better for that to happen, blowing leads late, or even giving up some has to stop. 10 point lead over Cal with 4 min to go and that game could have gone either way at the end, can’t allow that in any of these games, because all these teams a too good

Why tomorrows game is so big. Lot of basketball left but this is a huge swing game. Tough opponent but winnable as at home and with the confidence of a winning streak.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Why tomorrows game is so big. Lot of basketball left but this is a huge swing game. Tough opponent but winnable as at home and with the confidence of a winning streak.

This. A win tomorrow sets things up to go the right way....

 

[mikalalas]

have 2 against the Beavs, dogs, plus ASU, those are 5 must wins, but winning them all probably won’t happen, then UO for 2, AZ, UCLA, USC, need 2 of those 5, which is difficult. This team has too keep getting better for that to happen, blowing leads late, or even giving up some has to stop. 10 point lead over Cal with 4 min to go and that game could have gone either way at the end, can’t allow that in any of these games, because all these teams a too good

I disagree, I think there is probably about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance that WSU beats the Beavs twice, the dogs, twice, and ASU.

Stanford, Oregon, showed had bad UW is, DESPITE their 9 loss record.

ASU WAS ONLY MIRACLE FLUKE beat UCLA, because UCLA, took them for granted, and played like it(badly).

ASU will go back to being bad. And WSU is playing good, has won 5 in a row, with good wins vs Stanford, etc.

Only way WSU doesn't beat the Beav's, and ASU, is it they pull a UCLA, and do what UCLA did vs ASU.

If WSU does lose 1 of those 5 games, it would be a just barely lost game to UW.

And WSU has about a 43% to 53% to 59% to steal a game at home vs Oregon.

Also I disagree that WSU has to win 6, to get to the Dance.

If WSU wins 5(which can easily do), and thus finished 19-12, overall, and 12-8 in conference, for a likely tied for 4th at best, to alone in 5th in conference at worst, and if they then win only 1 Pac 12 tourney win to goto 20-12 overall, they, WSU goes to the Dance.

If WSU doesn't win a Pac 12 tourney game, and finished 19-12, 12-8, 4th or 5th in conference, they WSU are on the NCAA bubble with about a 51% chance to get into the dance.

Also the 12-8 in conference, is a better finish then all except the Tony Bennet teams, since Raveling, better then Sampson's 9-9 to 10-8 in conference team that danced.

Typically you have to go 9-9, 10-10,.500 in conference at worst, to 10-8, 11-9, to 11-7, 12-8 to goto the dance.

It's ULTIMATELY EXTREMELY RARE to go 12-8, and not goto the dance.

And so WSU has about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance by the end of the season to win 5 more games, and if they do, and win no more then 5 more games, they WSU have about a 51% chance to go dancing.

And WSU has about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game, after winning at least 5 more games. And if that happens, WSU would be about a 73% to 83% to 93% to go-to dance.

So overall, I think there is about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance that WSU goes to the dance this year.

 

[mikalalas]

I disagree, I think there is probably about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance that WSU beats the Beavs twice, the dogs, twice, and ASU.

Stanford, Oregon, showed had bad UW is, DESPITE their 9 loss record.

ASU WAS ONLY MIRACLE FLUKE beat UCLA, because UCLA, took them for granted, and played like it(badly).

ASU will go back to being bad. And WSU is playing good, has won 5 in a row, with good wins vs Stanford, etc.

Only way WSU doesn't beat the Beav's, and ASU, is it they pull a UCLA, and do what UCLA did vs ASU.

If WSU does lose 1 of those 5 games, it would be a just barely lost game to UW.

And WSU has about a 43% to 53% to 59% to steal a game at home vs Oregon.

Also I disagree that WSU has to win 6, to get to the Dance.

If WSU wins 5(which can easily do), and thus finished 19-12, overall, and 12-8 in conference, for a likely tied for 4th at best, to alone in 5th in conference at worst, and if they then win only 1 Pac 12 tourney win to goto 20-12 overall, they, WSU goes to the Dance.

If WSU doesn't win a Pac 12 tourney game, and finished 19-12, 12-8, 4th or 5th in conference, they WSU are on the NCAA bubble with about a 51% chance to get into the dance.

Also the 12-8 in conference, is a better finish then all except the Tony Bennet teams, since Raveling, better then Sampson's 9-9 to 10-8 in conference team that danced.

Typically you have to go 9-9, 10-10,.500 in conference at worst, to 10-8, 11-9, to 11-7, 12-8 to goto the dance.

It's ULTIMATELY EXTREMELY RARE to go 12-8, and not goto the dance.

And so WSU has about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance by the end of the season to win 5 more games, and if they do, and win no more then 5 more games, they WSU have about a 51% chance to go dancing.

And WSU has about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game, after winning at least 5 more games. And if that happens, WSU would be about a 73% to 83% to 93% to go-to dance.

So overall, I think there is about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance that WSU goes to the dance this year.

Also WSU could win just 4 games(not likely, it's likely WSU wins at least 5), finish 18 wins overall, finish 11-9 in conference, 50% chance to win a Pac 12 tourney game, and if win a Pac 12 tourney game, would be 19-12 overall, 11-9 in conference, tied for 5th, at worst, alone in 5th at best, with a 49% chance at best to go-to the dance.

So since I think WSU will do better then that, that is part of the reason why WSU is about 53% to 63% to 73% to go-to the dance, because WSU could still goto the dance with just 4 more wins, combined with 1 Pac 12 tourney win.

 

[Coug90]

I disagree, I think there is probably about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance that WSU beats the Beavs twice, the dogs, twice, and ASU.

Stanford, Oregon, showed had bad UW is, DESPITE their 9 loss record.

ASU WAS ONLY MIRACLE FLUKE beat UCLA, because UCLA, took them for granted, and played like it(badly).

ASU will go back to being bad. And WSU is playing good, has won 5 in a row, with good wins vs Stanford, etc.

Only way WSU doesn't beat the Beav's, and ASU, is it they pull a UCLA, and do what UCLA did vs ASU.

If WSU does lose 1 of those 5 games, it would be a just barely lost game to UW.

And WSU has about a 43% to 53% to 59% to steal a game at home vs Oregon.

Also I disagree that WSU has to win 6, to get to the Dance.

If WSU wins 5(which can easily do), and thus finished 19-12, overall, and 12-8 in conference, for a likely tied for 4th at best, to alone in 5th in conference at worst, and if they then win only 1 Pac 12 tourney win to goto 20-12 overall, they, WSU goes to the Dance.

If WSU doesn't win a Pac 12 tourney game, and finished 19-12, 12-8, 4th or 5th in conference, they WSU are on the NCAA bubble with about a 51% chance to get into the dance.

Also the 12-8 in conference, is a better finish then all except the Tony Bennet teams, since Raveling, better then Sampson's 9-9 to 10-8 in conference team that danced.

Typically you have to go 9-9, 10-10,.500 in conference at worst, to 10-8, 11-9, to 11-7, 12-8 to goto the dance.

It's ULTIMATELY EXTREMELY RARE to go 12-8, and not goto the dance.

And so WSU has about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance by the end of the season to win 5 more games, and if they do, and win no more then 5 more games, they WSU have about a 51% chance to go dancing.

And WSU has about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game, after winning at least 5 more games. And if that happens, WSU would be about a 73% to 83% to 93% to go-to dance.

So overall, I think there is about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance that WSU goes to the dance this year.

I hope you are right Mik but don’t take those odds to Vegas. The odds of winning any 5 game stretch is not great, particularly when at least two of those games is against a team that’s been playing at the same relative level. But, that said the odds would also be against them losing all to zona, the LA schools and say Oregon on the road. One way or another they’ve got to win at least 6 of these last 10. I wouldn’t expect it to be chalk though. They will probably get an upset and have an off night against a school they should beat

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

I disagree, I think there is probably about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance that WSU beats the Beavs twice, the dogs, twice, and ASU.

Stanford, Oregon, showed had bad UW is, DESPITE their 9 loss record.

ASU WAS ONLY MIRACLE FLUKE beat UCLA, because UCLA, took them for granted, and played like it(badly).

ASU will go back to being bad. And WSU is playing good, has won 5 in a row, with good wins vs Stanford, etc.

Only way WSU doesn't beat the Beav's, and ASU, is it they pull a UCLA, and do what UCLA did vs ASU.

If WSU does lose 1 of those 5 games, it would be a just barely lost game to UW.

And WSU has about a 43% to 53% to 59% to steal a game at home vs Oregon.

Also I disagree that WSU has to win 6, to get to the Dance.

If WSU wins 5(which can easily do), and thus finished 19-12, overall, and 12-8 in conference, for a likely tied for 4th at best, to alone in 5th in conference at worst, and if they then win only 1 Pac 12 tourney win to goto 20-12 overall, they, WSU goes to the Dance.

If WSU doesn't win a Pac 12 tourney game, and finished 19-12, 12-8, 4th or 5th in conference, they WSU are on the NCAA bubble with about a 51% chance to get into the dance.

Also the 12-8 in conference, is a better finish then all except the Tony Bennet teams, since Raveling, better then Sampson's 9-9 to 10-8 in conference team that danced.

Typically you have to go 9-9, 10-10,.500 in conference at worst, to 10-8, 11-9, to 11-7, 12-8 to goto the dance.

It's ULTIMATELY EXTREMELY RARE to go 12-8, and not goto the dance.

And so WSU has about a 63% to 73% to 83% chance by the end of the season to win 5 more games, and if they do, and win no more then 5 more games, they WSU have about a 51% chance to go dancing.

And WSU has about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance to win at least 1 Pac 12 tourney game, after winning at least 5 more games. And if that happens, WSU would be about a 73% to 83% to 93% to go-to dance.

So overall, I think there is about a 53% to 63% to 73% chance that WSU goes to the dance this year.

Why 63-83% chance in your first paragraph. That's a big spread of percentages.

 

[mikalalas]

I hope you are right Mik but don’t take those odds to Vegas. The odds of winning any 5 game stretch is not great, particularly when at least two of those games is against a team that’s been playing at the same relative level. But, that said the odds would also be against them losing all to zona, the LA schools and say Oregon on the road. One way or another they’ve got to win at least 6 of these last 10. I wouldn’t expect it to be chalk though. They will probably get an upset and have an off night against a school they should beat

Ok maybe might probably win 1 they are not supposed to win, and lose 1 that they are supposed to win, but overall I see WSU winning at least 5, and 6 at best, and 4 at worst, and winning at least 4,going 18-13, 11-9, tied to alone in 5th, 1 Pac 12 tourney win, 49% chance to go dancing at worst.

To

5 wins, 19-12, 12-8, tied for 4th, alone in 5th, 1 Pac 12 tourney win, going to the dance.

To

6 wins, 20-11, 13-7, Alone in 4th, 1 Pac 12 tourney win, going to the NCAA, at best.

I don't think WSU has to either win 6 or win the entire Pac 12 tourney to go dancing.