Anybody watching CSU-Colorado?
- Thread starter Loyal Coug1
- Start date
The whole world was watching.
Well, the U.S college football fan world.
And the whole world will watch the Oregon game, next week, as well.
Well, the U.S college football fan world.
And the whole world will watch the Oregon game, next week, as well.
We didn't get GameDay. They'll be in South Bend next Saturday. The question is, who will be favored for our game against the Beavs?
I think it should be WSU.
1. WSU is at home
2. WSU has beaten a better, harder team to beat in Wisconsin, vs SDSU.
3. WSU has handily beat CSU, NCU, while Ore St hasn't handily beat. Example, while SDSU is better then CSU, NCU, I think WSU would beat SDSU by a score range of about 33 to 9 to 43 to 14 to 17, instead of Ore St's 26 to 14 to 17 over SDSU.
4. Ore St's QB, has about 3 INT'S, compared to Cam Ward's 1 int/fumble, turnover, and Cam Ward has a higher QBR rating, stats, more TD's, yards, offense, etc, then Ore St's QB. Cam had a QBR rating of about 143 vs CSU, and QBR 300 vs NCU, and was about 100+ QBR vs Wiscy.
Ore St's QBR is about 100 or less.
5. WSU's defense, RJ Stone, Brennan Jackson, Devin Richardson(LB), and Chau Smith Wade, Jaden Hicks will probably defensively lock down the Beavers.
6. WSU has OWNED Ore St, traditionally, and the last about 8 years.
While the Beavers will disrupt WSU's offense, I think that WSU will probably rush Watson, etc, 7 to 10 to 13 times for 55 to 59 to 63 yards, 1,2 TD's, and Cam Ward will probably pass about 59 to 63% completion ratio, 333 yards, 1 turnover, 2,3,4 TD's.
I think WSU scores 1 Rushing TD, + 3 passing TD's, and 2 FG's, for about 34 points.
I think WSU defensively limits OSU to 2 TD's(1 rushing, 1 passing), 2 FG's, 49 yards rushing on about 10 to 13 carries, and about 259 yards passing, and 1 int, 1 fumble.
WSU wins about 30 to 33,34 to OSU 20 to 23.
So I think WSU should be the just barely by skin of teeth, slight favorite to win.
That said I think Ore St is capable of UPSETTING, beating WSU.
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It will not be an upset if OSU beats the Cougs. They are a very good team and likely will be favored by 2-3 imo.
OSU is a very good, should be ranked team.
But according to the analysis above, as good as OSU is, comparatively, statistically, etc, WSU is, or should be better then OSU, so in that sense, if OSU wins, the team that probably should not be the favorite, would have beaten, semi upsetted the team that should probably be the favorite.
If a #13 ranked team beats #10 team, both teams are probably very good, so if #13 beats #10, while it isn't really a upset, technically speaking a #13 has upset #10, in College Football terminology.
And while OSU is the technically higher ranked team, WSU should probably be higher ranked, favored over OSU.
And because of that if OSU beats WSU, OSU is kinda technically upsetting WSU.
Also I DID SAY THAT OSU IS MORE THEN ABLE TO BEAT, TECHNICALLY UPSET, ETC, WSU.
Meaning that if OSU beats WSU, it's probably LEGIT, and NOT a FLUKE upset, like if CSU had beat CU, and that OSU would be a VERY GOOD TEAM, BEATING ANOTHER VERY GOOD TEAM, if they beat WSU.
WSU should be favored, but OSU a VERY GOOD TEAM, could still win.
Good points on everything. Basically, we've dominated the series since sliced bread. Correction:
Washington State 56 wins
Oregon State 48 wins
3 Ties
I'm thinking Oregon State will be favored, because we tend to not get the respect....thus COUGS vs. EVERYBODY.
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2024 Efficiencies College Football Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024 Efficiencies College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.
There is nothing statistically that says we are better than OSU Mik. Look at the efficiency ratings of both squads. If anything they have a slight edge. Their offense has been very efficient and their defense has been solid. It should be a great matchup. Cougs have home field which is worth a few points. Might be a pick ‘em.
2024 Efficiencies College Football Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024 Efficiencies College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance of the season.www.espn.com
There is nothing statistically that says we are better than OSU Mik. Look at the efficiency ratings of both squads. If anything they have a slight edge. Their offense has been very efficient and their defense has been solid. It should be a great matchup. Cougs have home field which is worth a few points. Might be a pick ‘em.
While OSU might probably has been SLIGHTLY more efficient, that's misleading.
Efficiency is making the most out of opportunities.
With that in mind going 12 out of 13 for 100 yards, 1 TD, is technically more efficient, then 16 out of 23 for 400 yards, 1 int, 4 TD's.
While 12 out of 13 is supposedly, technically better, more efficient, the 16 out of 23 for 400 yards, 1 int, 4 TD's, is better.
That's a example of how efficiency can be misleading.
Ore St's starting QB has about 2,3 INT'S, and Ore St only scores about 23+ points, against competition, not as good as Wiscy.
If WSU played SDSU, they would score about 33 to 35 to 37 to 40 to 43 vs SDSU's 14 to 17 to 20.
VS's OSU's 26 to SDSU's 14 to 17 to 19.
WSU is putting up 50+, 64, 31 vs 22(Wiscy), which BLOWS AWAY OSU's average of about 27 per game.
That shows that while OSU might technically have the better efficiency, WSU has better results, stats, points, etc, then OSU.
Also Cam only has 1 int, 1 fumble, compared to OSU's QB's 2,3 INT'S.
And Cam's QBR RATING, RANKING, has been 143(AWESOME), 300, and about 100 vs WISCY, which is BETTER then OSU's QB's QBR of about 100 per game.
Cam is in the top 15 QB's in nation, statistically, points, yards, QBR, lack of turnovers, etc.
OSU's QB is outside the top 25 to 33 to 43.
In fact, if it wasn't for OSU's defense....
That shows that WSU has been BETTER, despite OSU's technically better efficiency.
The radio announcers pointed out OSU's QB's INT'S, lower production, etc, then, compared to Cam's better production.
WSU should just barely be the slight favorite over OSU.
Yeah OSU will probably be either favored or toss up, pick em, because WSU won't get the respect they deserve.
Despite that, WSU is, should be the technically better team, and should be the just barely slight favorite over OSU.
Ultimately who gives a shit let’s go ahead and beat them by 30 and make it a moot point.
CU deserves credit for winning at the end but "Prime" looked overwhelmed in the fourth quarter. He looked tired and worn out and not ready for big time football. They were fortunate that CSU couldn't get one final first down to put the game on ice and it buys them another week of being trendy.
First week games are hard to judge so who knows if our win over CSU was as good as it looked in comparison to how they played against Colorado. It being a rivalry also made it hard to judge. I told my co-workers last week that I didn't think CSU was as bad as we made them look.
That said, I'll be surprised if Colorado gets to six wins based on what I saw on Saturday night. Maybe Hunter is that important to them and they'll be great when he's back.
First week games are hard to judge so who knows if our win over CSU was as good as it looked in comparison to how they played against Colorado. It being a rivalry also made it hard to judge. I told my co-workers last week that I didn't think CSU was as bad as we made them look.
That said, I'll be surprised if Colorado gets to six wins based on what I saw on Saturday night. Maybe Hunter is that important to them and they'll be great when he's back.
You don’t think they can go 3-6 to close out the season? They got in their own heads vs CSU and started believing their own hype too much but they will get 3 more wins. That said Oregon and USC are gonna humble them. Oregon probably isn’t taking too kindly to being out flashed.
First...TL;DR. However......
If I'm right (and I'm probably wrong), they are going to get clowned in the next couple weeks. Any shred of the idea that they are "elite" should be gone. CU should be 3-2 and out of the Top 25 in two weeks.
Arizona State is looking like a probable win for the Buffalos. They struggled to beat an FCS team and have looked progressively worse. That said, CSU looked like an easy win for CU and the Rams looked like the better team on Saturday night. Still...a likely CU win and 4-2 record. Stanford....same thing. 5-2 record for the Buffs and flirting with the Top 25 again.
The easy part of their schedule is done at that point. The last five teams on their schedule are 14-1 and four of them are in the Top 25. UCLA hasn't really played anyone...but they've looked better each week. Chip Kelly is a good coach and I expect the Buffs to lose. CU at 5-3.
Buffs get Oregon State next. The math says that Oregon State will be 7-1 and ranked in the Top 15 when they play CU. Jonathan Smith has a good team and I think the Buffs fall to 5-4. FWIW, I hope that OSU is 6-2 with a loss to WSU in the mix.
Arizona is going to be the wild card in the discussion for CU making a bowl game. Their offense has been a bit underwhelming this year but losing to Mississippi State on the road in overtime is nothing to be ashamed of. Arizona's biggest problem is their schedule. They play five ranked teams in a row before CU and will probably be 3-6 and drowning. It all depends on JDL. Do they get "good JDL" or "bad JDL"? I'm sticking to my guns and think that the Buffaloes arrogance bites them and they lose to fall to 5-5.
That puts us in the unenviable position of being the team that plays CU when they are going to really start feeling back into a corner. With Utah coming up next, the Buffs are going to feel like our game is a "must win". The transitive property of college football suggests that we are 18 points better than CU but we all know how flawed that can be. Jake Dickert has thus far never had a loss against a team that finished with fewer than 9 wins and 8 of his 9 losses were to 10 win teams. I don't see that changing here and I see the Buffs falling to 5-6.
If Cam Rising is healthy, the Utes are going to thump the Buffs. It won't be a total blowout, but they are too sound to lose to CU. That Florida butt kicking in week one is likely to look amazing by the end of the season. Buffs fall to 5-7 and everyone focuses on the 4 win improvement as signs of Deion's greatness.
All that rambling aside, gutting out the win against CSU has dramatically improved the Buffs chances at a bowl game and it's right to assume that they will get six wins. ASU is usually a tough team to play in Tempe but if the Buffs get that win (and the following week against a Stanford), their odds go up exponentially. Talented teams find a way to win and groups of talented individuals find ways to lose. We'll find out what kind of team that Deion has put together in the next month. He gets a passing grade so far.
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Yep, what CU did to both of TCU(DEFENDING NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP RUNNER UP), and Nebraska(Despite Nebraska being down from their Glory Years), shows that CSU was probably a SEMI FLUKE, and that when combined with the CSU game, CU will probably win about 5,6,7 total games, and go 4-5, 3-6, 5-4 in conference to close the season.
And that's with CU losing to USC, Oregon.
CU should beat Arizona, ASU, and if they play Stanford and Cal, they should beat Stanford and Cal too.
And if CU plays UCLA, CU also probably beats UCLA.
CU will probably be like the part of Leach that wins one or 2 games they shouldn't(TCU), and loses or almost loses one game they shouldn't(CSU).
So CU should probably win 5,6,7 wins, and go 3-6, 4-5, 5-4 in conference, with losses to USC, Oregon, and losses to Utah, UW, if they play them, and wins against ASU, Arizona, and wins against UCLA, Stanford, Cal, if they play them.
Yeah I’d say in general when your 3 non conference games are two P5s and a rivalry game and you go 3-0 you should be in good shape in most conferences.
The buffs are gonna be dangerous all year. I for sure think usc and Oregon beat them but they can win any of their remaining games imo. I’d put them @7 wins right now. ASU and Furd are gimmes, and they’ll take two from AZ, Utah, OSU, UCLA, and us.
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