Are WSU and OSU a package deal in any further realignment?

[PeteTheChop]

The other Pac-12 schools left in groups of 2 (or 4 if UA, ASU, CU and Utah moved as one).

Cougs and Beavs seem to be doing their own thing for baseball next spring, but, big picture, are they going to stick together for the revenue sports no matter what?

Or could it be something where WSU and OSU prioritize different things in their next conference affiliation?

 

[ttowncoug]

I think they are sticking together for obvious reasons.

I personally believe we have to wait until after August 1st before we start hearing/seeing movement on anything strategic. Cougs/Beavs needed to control the conference, and assets, and while they have other "owners" it complicates things.

I think the merger with the ACC makes the most sense. Creating an ACC west seems like it could work out very well.

 

[PeteTheChop]

I think they are sticking together for obvious reasons.

I personally believe we have to wait until after August 1st before we start hearing/seeing movement on anything strategic. Cougs/Beavs needed to control the conference, and assets, and while they have other "owners" it complicates things.

I think the merger with the ACC makes the most sense. Creating an ACC west seems like it could work out very well.

T-Town, do you prefer the ACC over the Big 12 as far as Power Conference options go for WSU/OSU?

Is there any way Schultzie might try to play the two conferences against one another in some kind of high-stakes poker game in order to get the best deal?

 

[UberCougars]

Schultz got taken to the cleaners when he held leverage.

Now that he’s negotiating from a position of extreme weakness, with all his cards face up on the table, after announcing he’s bailing on WSU and moving to Tri-Cities, what makes you think he’ll be any more successful “this” time?

 

[SaveFerris]

The other Pac-12 schools left in groups of 2 (or 4 if UA, ASU, CU and Utah moved as one).

Cougs and Beavs seem to be doing their own thing for baseball next spring, but, big picture, are they going to stick together for the revenue sports no matter what?

Or could it be something where WSU and OSU prioritize different things in their next conference affiliation?

I hope we stick together. If only 1 were to get an offer then that's that.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Schultz got taken to the cleaners when he held leverage.

Now that he’s negotiating from a position of extreme weakness, with all his cards face up on the table, after announcing he’s bailing on WSU and moving to Tri-Cities, what makes you think he’ll be any more successful “this” time?

Spot on. And with an AD (sorry Anne) who is not top-notch. There is no "high-stakes" game to be played.

Interesting Q from Pete though. I have no idea where OSU's head is at, other than probably up its ass likes WSU's. But I could see the possibility of a fracture there. OSU seems to have a higher opinion of itself than WSU does - with maybe some justification. But if they want to cail and leave us with 100 of the Pac-2 money, fine by me.

 

[95coug]

It's in WSU & OSU's interest to stay together through the end of the conference media deal in August. After that, their interests do not necessarily coincide, and they may do different things.

As for which is more attractive between the ACC & Big 12...it's hard to say. The money isn't that much different currently, and travel will be greater with the ACC...unless they do poach some teams and build a west coast unit. But that's assuming their current membership, which I think is a bad assumption. Seems highly likely that eventually, FSU, Clemson, & Miami (at least) will escape the ACC and join the Big 10/SEC. When that happens, the value of the ACC drops, even if they do add some western teams.

Add to that, in order to add western teams, the ACC most likely has to poach from the Big 12, which ultimately weakens both conferences further, and probably still means they promote some G5 teams to make the western pod. I imagine something like WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, SDSU, maybe SMU, and 1-2 of Colorado/Colorado State/UNLV. That's really not a group that is going to have a lot of media value.

For the moment, it seems like the best play is to watch & wait. It'll suck in the short term, but there's too much uncertainty still to commit to a direction. The FSU/Clemson v. ACC issue has the potential to change the landscape again - possibly a lot - so throwing in long-term with either the ACC or Big 12 doesn't make sense yet.

It's also possible that when FSU/Clemson/Miami step up to the big 2, other teams get dropped and need new homes. So...I'm on board with waiting for a little more clarity. We're not in a strong position, and we won't be...but for the next year we're at least stable. No need to make a quick decision based on things we know are going to change again.

 

[ttowncoug]

It's in WSU & OSU's interest to stay together through the end of the conference media deal in August. After that, their interests do not necessarily coincide, and they may do different things.

As for which is more attractive between the ACC & Big 12...it's hard to say. The money isn't that much different currently, and travel will be greater with the ACC...unless they do poach some teams and build a west coast unit. But that's assuming their current membership, which I think is a bad assumption. Seems highly likely that eventually, FSU, Clemson, & Miami (at least) will escape the ACC and join the Big 10/SEC. When that happens, the value of the ACC drops, even if they do add some western teams.

Add to that, in order to add western teams, the ACC most likely has to poach from the Big 12, which ultimately weakens both conferences further, and probably still means they promote some G5 teams to make the western pod. I imagine something like WSU, OSU, Stanford, Cal, Utah, SDSU, maybe SMU, and 1-2 of Colorado/Colorado State/UNLV. That's really not a group that is going to have a lot of media value.

For the moment, it seems like the best play is to watch & wait. It'll suck in the short term, but there's too much uncertainty still to commit to a direction. The FSU/Clemson v. ACC issue has the potential to change the landscape again - possibly a lot - so throwing in long-term with either the ACC or Big 12 doesn't make sense yet.

It's also possible that when FSU/Clemson/Miami step up to the big 2, other teams get dropped and need new homes. So...I'm on board with waiting for a little more clarity. We're not in a strong position, and we won't be...but for the next year we're at least stable. No need to make a quick decision based on things we know are going to change again.

I'd add NC and Georgia Tech to the mix of departing school.

The SEC and Big-10 will cherry pick the better schools and brands of the ACC. The remaining schools will have to figure out if they want to go to the Big-12, or form a union with former Pac-12 schools and build out a western division.

I personally think from a west coast visibility perspective, being with Cal and Stanford helps a lot for recruiting. Add SDSU into the mix. Now you have WA, OR, and CAL in the footprint. I don't see how playing in the Big-12, with ZERO, repeat ZERO, California presence helps us out. Utah, UA and ASU will feel that at some point is my bet.

 

[ttowncoug]

I think it was Price that once said "our heart and soul are from the state of Washington, but our arms and legs are from the state of California."

We need to be in a conference with a SOLID Cali footprint for recruiting.

 

[mikalalas]

I'd add NC and Georgia Tech to the mix of departing school.

The SEC and Big-10 will cherry pick the better schools and brands of the ACC. The remaining schools will have to figure out if they want to go to the Big-12, or form a union with former Pac-12 schools and build out a western division.

I personally think from a west coast visibility perspective, being with Cal and Stanford helps a lot for recruiting. Add SDSU into the mix. Now you have WA, OR, and CAL in the footprint. I don't see how playing in the Big-12, with ZERO, repeat ZERO, California presence helps us out. Utah, UA and ASU will feel that at some point is my bet.

FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia, will all be taken either by the SEC, BIG 10.

Louisville, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech will be taken by the Big 12, if they don't goto SEC, BIG 10, and they probably won't go to SEC, BIG 10.

Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, NC St, CAL, Stanford, SMU will either have to rebuild ACC, or merge with a PAC 12, that take top 9 MWC, with Memphis, Tulane, USF, in mix. Or they will have to join Pac 12, that include Top 9 MWC, WSU, OSU, Memphis, Tulane, USF.

If ACC doesn't rebuild without the PAC, and if ACC joins, merges with PAC, that will include BSU(Too good not to be included), then Stanford will either go independent, or go beg to join BIG 12, or go join IVY League, anything to not be with BSU.

West Division, Pod, would have Cal, WSU, OSU, SDSU, Fresno St, SJSU

Central Division Pod would have

BSU, Utah St, Wyoming, CSU, SMU, and either Memphis or Tulane

East Division Pod would have Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, NC St, either Memphis or Tulane, and USF.

 

[mikalalas]

I think it was Price that once said "our heart and soul are from the state of Washington, but our arms and legs are from the state of California."

We need to be in a conference with a SOLID Cali footprint for recruiting.

Cal, SDSU, SJSU, Fresno St, WSU, OSU, in a western Division where ACC either joins, merges with PAC, where BSU is part of PAC, where Stanford does whatever Stanford do to not be with BSU, split into West, Central, East divisions, is PLENTY OF CALIFORNIA RECRUITING ACCESS.

 

[mikalalas]

FSU, Clemson, North Carolina, Miami, Virginia, will all be taken either by the SEC, BIG 10.

Louisville, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech will be taken by the Big 12, if they don't goto SEC, BIG 10, and they probably won't go to SEC, BIG 10.

Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, NC St, CAL, Stanford, SMU will either have to rebuild ACC, or merge with a PAC 12, that take top 9 MWC, with Memphis, Tulane, USF, in mix. Or they will have to join Pac 12, that include Top 9 MWC, WSU, OSU, Memphis, Tulane, USF.

If ACC doesn't rebuild without the PAC, and if ACC joins, merges with PAC, that will include BSU(Too good not to be included), then Stanford will either go independent, or go beg to join BIG 12, or go join IVY League, anything to not be with BSU.

West Division, Pod, would have Cal, WSU, OSU, SDSU, Fresno St, SJSU

Central Division Pod would have

BSU, Utah St, Wyoming, CSU, SMU, and either Memphis or Tulane

East Division Pod would have Wake Forest, Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, NC St, either Memphis or Tulane, and USF.

This version of PAC 12, or Merged ACC, PAC 12/2, MWC, is either about almost as good as Big 12, minus Louisville, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, or about equal to Big 12, without Louisville, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Virginia Tech.

This version of PAC 12, Merged ACC, Pac 12/2, MWC, would be a hybrid P4/G5, that would have 1 guaranteed CFP 12 spot, unless champ finished with 4 losses, like 8,9-4, 9,10-3 or better clinches, guarantees a CFP spot. Media Deal would be about 19 to 21 to 23 to 25 to 27 to 29 mil per team per year, about 7 to 9 to 11 mil per year from CFP, and 1 January Bowl(s), Insight Bowl, Gator Bowl, 1 of the 6 major bowls(like either the Orange, or Rose,(the other 5 major bowls, would do the 12 team playoff, and the top 2 play off teams, would get byes into the next round, Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Vegas Bowl, Sun Bowl, LA BOWL, + NCAA tournament units + Bowl money.

Much better, more realistic then only taking every MWC team, instead of Top 9 MWC +, and only getting 9 to 11 to 13 mil per team per year media deal, 1.8 to 3.5 mil per year from CFP + NCAA tourney units(less units), no CFP spot unless go either 11-1, 12-0, and 11-1 could still not make CFP, if a 12-0 from AAC goes to CFP, no January bowls, no major Bowl, the Idaho Potato Head conference champ Bowl, Shetty bowls, Shetty Bowl money.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

This version of PAC 12, or Merged ACC, PAC 12/2, MWC, is either about almost as good as Big 12, minus Louisville, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, or about equal to Big 12, without Louisville, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Virginia Tech.

This version of PAC 12, Merged ACC, Pac 12/2, MWC, would be a hybrid P4/G5, that would have 1 guaranteed CFP 12 spot, unless champ finished with 4 losses, like 8,9-4, 9,10-3 or better clinches, guarantees a CFP spot. Media Deal would be about 19 to 21 to 23 to 25 to 27 to 29 mil per team per year, about 7 to 9 to 11 mil per year from CFP, and 1 January Bowl(s), Insight Bowl, Gator Bowl, 1 of the 6 major bowls(like either the Orange, or Rose,(the other 5 major bowls, would do the 12 team playoff, and the top 2 play off teams, would get byes into the next round, Alamo Bowl, Holiday Bowl, Vegas Bowl, Sun Bowl, LA BOWL, + NCAA tournament units + Bowl money.

Much better, more realistic then only taking every MWC team, instead of Top 9 MWC +, and only getting 9 to 11 to 13 mil per team per year media deal, 1.8 to 3.5 mil per year from CFP + NCAA tourney units(less units), no CFP spot unless go either 11-1, 12-0, and 11-1 could still not make CFP, if a 12-0 from AAC goes to CFP, no January bowls, no major Bowl, the Idaho Potato Head conference champ Bowl, Shetty bowls, Shetty Bowl money.

Mik, this is a copy and paste of your same 10 or more posts on the same subject.

 

[ttowncoug]

Mik, this is a copy and paste of your same 10 or more posts on the same subject.

He’s on a roll! But Stanford don’t want no part in playing with Fresno in their conference nor them San Jose kids.

 

[mikalalas]

He’s on a roll! But Stanford don’t want no part in playing with Fresno in their conference nor them San Jose kids.

And Stanford wouldn't want BSU as well, so wouldn't want BSU, Fresno St, 2 of the better, best, G5's, either almost equal to Stanford, or equal to, or just barely by skin of teeth better, etc, to Stanford. And Stanford, wouldn't want SJSU

So getting BSU, Fresno St(Two of the better best G5's, etc), SJSU, SDSU, with CAL, and the state of Cali, and LA, Oakland, San Fran, and San Diego, and San Jose, recruiting areas, etc, is worth losing Stanford.

 

[CougPatrol]

Schultz got taken to the cleaners when he held leverage.

Now that he’s negotiating from a position of extreme weakness, with all his cards face up on the table, after announcing he’s bailing on WSU and moving to Tri-Cities, what makes you think he’ll be any more successful “this” time?

What leverage did Schulz and WSU ever have?

 

[ttowncoug]

What leverage did Schulz and WSU ever have?

WSU alone, not much. WSU + OSU, plus the Pac-12 assets, much more.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

WSU alone, not much. WSU + OSU, plus the Pac-12 assets, much more.

"Plus the Pac-12 assets", of which we are already spending about $10 million to balance the FY 24 budget, and which WSU has allocated what - $30-ish million? - to fund FY 25's budget. Who knows how much of their half OSU is spending. Plus of which at least $30 million in NCAA BB units is gone if we merge into this fantasy conference. In the meantime, no new NCAA BB units, and almost -0- chance of earning a playoff berth. But hey, be patient. And keep the checkbook handy to pay for year 2 of our affiliation agreements. $10 million to the MW if I recall, and $1 million or more to the WCC.

So are you saying that we spend the rest of this dissolving pool to buy our way into the fantasy conference? Of note, WSU is barely mentioned, if at all, in the various recent clickbait scenarios for the ACC. Which is likely YEARS away from losing FSU, Clemson, etc. By which time WSU will be lost even further in the wasteland, broke and knocking, hat in hand, at the MW's door begging to join.

And I was going to dissect our friend Mik's lengthy ramblings (again), but just don't have the energy to point out all the ridiculousness. Like the "hybrid "P4/G5" conference, a term which is prominently or fleetingly mentioned NOWHERE except in his posts. Or the mention of the Rose and Orange Bowls, which are slated for CFP playoff games. Or all of the pulled-out-of-ass media rights numbers. But yes, I am Baghdad Bob.

I'll stop there. But be patient everyone. When the ACC or Big-12 look at a map and say "gee let's go get SDSU and UNLV and their big media markets", we will be in an even better place.

12 Team Playoff Fact Sheet (PDF) - College Football Playoff

12 Team Playoff Fact Sheet (PDF)

collegefootballplayoff.com

 

[ttowncoug]

Loyal,
The Pac-12 "war chest" is reported at $255M. How much of this sum is going to WSU and OSU for the next year or two? Not sure. At $125M each, there are "assets" on the books....we can't discount the facts.

Ten Departing Pac-12 Schools Will Pay a Portion for Potential Legal Liabilities

The majority of 2023-24 Pac-12 revenue will be distributed equally among the 12 schools

www.si.com

I'll say this again: after August 1, the rumors will start heating up. I think the ACC has the most potential. ESPN would want FSU and Clemson in the SEC. ESPN would want to have more QUALITY west coast late games for broadcasting. The Pac-12 network has value, maybe in a sale to Apple so they can produce content. The future NCAA credits have value. The Pac-12 brand has value.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Loyal,
The Pac-12 "war chest" is reported at $255M. How much of this sum is going to WSU and OSU for the next year or two? Not sure. At $125M each, there are "assets" on the books....we can't discount the facts.

Ten Departing Pac-12 Schools Will Pay a Portion for Potential Legal Liabilities

The majority of 2023-24 Pac-12 revenue will be distributed equally among the 12 schools

www.si.com

I'll say this again: after August 1, the rumors will start heating up. I think the ACC has the most potential. ESPN would want FSU and Clemson in the SEC. ESPN would want to have more QUALITY west coast late games for broadcasting. The Pac-12 network has value, maybe in a sale to Apple so they can produce content. The future NCAA credits have value. The Pac-12 brand has value.

Oh Gawd let's do the numbers for the umpteenth time:
$65M from the traitors
$100M from the RB contract ($50M/year)
$65M in NCAA BB credits (Approx?). ~ $30M is due in Years 3-6 if the Pac still exists. Otherwise, bye-bye
? in P5 monies for 2 years
I can't remember the rest. As I have asked numerous times, can someone who subscribes to the Mercury News or the Seattle Times look this up? The Mercury news (Wilner) has the complete breakdown. Here's the F-ing link:

Pac-12 survival: Tallying the cash available to Washington State and Oregon State for rebuilding the conference

With the Pac-12 eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, we can estimate the cash Washington State and Oregon State will have available to rebuild the conference.

www.mercurynews.com

WSU is already sucking about $10M (FY 24) and $30M (FY 25) out of our $125M. The Pac-2 is paying $14M(?) to the MW for 2024 FB, a million or so the WCC. So more than a third of our "assets" are effectively out the door already.

 

[PeteTheChop]

Oh Gawd let's do the numbers for the umpteenth time:
$65M from the traitors
$100M from the RB contract ($50M/year)
$65M in NCAA BB credits (Approx?). ~ $30M is due in Years 3-6 if the Pac still exists. Otherwise, bye-bye
? in P5 monies for 2 years
I can't remember the rest. As I have asked numerous times, can someone who subscribes to the Mercury News or the Seattle Times look this up? The Mercury news (Wilner) has the complete breakdown. Here's the F-ing link:

Pac-12 survival: Tallying the cash available to Washington State and Oregon State for rebuilding the conference

With the Pac-12 eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, we can estimate the cash Washington State and Oregon State will have available to rebuild the conference.

www.mercurynews.com

WSU is already sucking about $10M (FY 24) and $30M (FY 25) out of our $125M. The Pac-2 is paying $14M(?) to the MW for 2024 FB, a million or so the WCC. So more than a third of our "assets" are effectively out the door already.

Not to disagree with your figures (you are a numbers guy by trade), but to the optimism of Mik, T-Town, Ed and others: Jon Canzano (Portland media guru) said recently on his radio show (?) that Pres. Schulz seemed confident that things would ultimately work out well for WSU — even after he was retired and his replacement was appointed.

So that seems like a positive.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

T-Town, do you prefer the ACC over the Big 12 as far as Power Conference options go for WSU/OSU?

Is there any way Schultzie might try to play the two conferences against one another in some kind of high-stakes poker game in order to get the best deal?

Pete, let me answer your question in a different way. I personally favor which ever result ends up in a west coast P4 pod. At this point, it could be either one. Just from a logic perspective, I'd think the Big 12 is more likely for a lot of reasons, but depending upon what happens to the ACC over the next 12 months, they may be the more flexible and willing to work with us option.

 

[ttowncoug]

Pete, let me answer your question in a different way. I personally favor which ever result ends up in a west coast P4 pod. At this point, it could be either one. Just from a logic perspective, I'd think the Big 12 is more likely for a lot of reasons, but depending upon what happens to the ACC over the next 12 months, they may be the more flexible and willing to work with us option.

On the Big-12, I personally wonder how much "bad blood" there is with the likes of WSU, OSU, Cal and Stanford. The move to take CU, ASU, UA and Utah was done deliberately to undermine the Pac-12 for the Big-12's short-term gain. Utah doesn't really want to be there. Same with ASU. They took the offer because they had no other choice. That never works out well. The Big-12's tactics never felt right and I suspect many school Presidents would agree as well. I'd rather the Cougs be in the ACC west and build out a good western conference that gives us maximum exposure on the west coast.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Not to disagree with your figures (you are a numbers guy by trade), but to the optimism of Mik, T-Town, Ed and others: Jon Canzano (Portland media guru) said recently on his radio show (?) that Pres. Schulz seemed confident that things would ultimately work out well for WSU — even after he was retired and his replacement was appointed.

So that seems like a positive.

Oh brother. And exactly what would you expect Schulz to say? "I sucked as a President, especially with Athletics and WSU is going to be even farther up shit creek without a paddle"?

And what is there to potentially disagree with on my numbers? Those are factual and published, except for the figures that I can't quantify. Unlike others who pull all sorts of numbers out of their ass, pushed out of there by flying monkeys.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Oh brother. And exactly what would you expect Schulz to say? "I sucked as a President, especially with Athletics and WSU is going to be even farther up shit creek without a paddle"?

And what is there to potentially disagree with on my numbers? Those are factual and published, except for the figures that I can't quantify. Unlike others who pull all sorts of numbers out of their ass, pushed out of there by flying monkeys.

I've always liked flying monkeys, myself. The annual showing of "The Wizard of Oz" (in color!) on TV was a highlight for me every year. I can still hear the music they played to connote flying monkeys. Memories!

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I've always liked flying monkeys, myself. The annual showing of "The Wizard of Oz" (in color!) on TV was a highlight for me every year. I can still hear the music they played to connote flying monkeys. Memories!

Ever see the Two and a Half Men episode where Charlie gets mixed up with the Satan worshiper and Evelyn saves the day? And then makes the boys dress up as flying monkeys for a costume party? One of the best ones. I heard the monkey thing for the first time when I was at WSU and a female (albeit dyke) colleague said "And monkeys might fly out of my ass" in regard to a highly unlikely financial scenario. Reminds me of our Big-12 or ACC prospects.........

 

[250vertical]

If FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Virginia/Miami leave the ACC, the money leaves with them. The Big 12 will be in a position to offer considerably more money to a few of the best income producing schools left. In the end, rivalries, and any regional sentiment go out the window. It's to the point that if the Big 12 offers the most money, and offers your school, you go.
As to the flying monkeys, if one flew out of my ass, I would definitely be scheduling a check up.
"I'm not playin doc, I'm giving it to you straight. A monkey flew out of my ass."
"No shit. Well where did the sumbitch go?" (my doctor is an ole country boy - he's smoking a Chesterfield during this)
"Hell, I don't know. He slapped me, and I slapped him back. He grabbed my beer, flipped me the bird, and took off out the window."
"No shit?"
"No shit."
"Well...take two aspirin and go to bed. You'll be ok."