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Back to Football. Line vs Stanford….

It’s now Stanford -1.

Furd is tough one to figure. Fairly inconsistent all year. I like the Cougs at home.
 
I get the feeling this comes down how Shaw calls the game. Does he get impatient and try to throw, or just beat on our DTs for 50+ carries?
 
dgibbons said:
I get the feeling this comes down how Shaw calls the game. Does he get impatient and try to throw, or just beat on our DTs for 50+ carries?
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Fortunately for us and some of his opponents, he has fallen in love with the forward pass and five wide formations. Hopefully that trend continues
 
Stanford does some things in their passing game that could cause us some problems. Tall, accurate QB who gets rid of the ball quickly to big receivers and TEs. The glaring problem for them, and the kiss of death for teams at every level, is that they can't run the ball and they can't stop the run. Stanford is ranked nearly dead last in rushing defense this season. They had the unicorn win vs. USC, but apart from that, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, UCLA, Oregon, and ASU ran all over them.

I expect a tough game from Stanford, and I never get overly confident in conference games, but this seems like a good matchup for us. We've got a great 1-2 punch with McIntyre and Borghi, and that should allow us to do what JDL does best. Spread them out, run the ball, and throw a lot of outs and seam passes.

We're not as explosive as ASU and UCLA, but they showed the blueprint on how to attack them. Borghi could have a couple of breakaway runs this week.
 
The entire PAC-12 is so schizophrenic this year that I’m not sure what to think. And Stanford is the nuttiest of the bunch.

If we call the game offensively similar to what we did against OSU, I think we’ll be OK. If we don’t, we won’t.

If our coaches have watched any Stanford film at all, we’ll be working our RBs in practice, convincing Borghi to run downhill, and maybe installing some design QB runs. We should not be doing the Mike Leach “this is my offense” thing.
 
dgibbons said:
Well, we can't stop the run. So, the resistable force meets the easily movable object.

The height of their receivers will likely be a problem.
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I think we should commit to stacking the box, stopping the run, and rushing the hell out of their QB. He’ll pick us apart to some degree, but we’ll also get them behind the chains.

As long as JDL continues to play like Chad Davis, we’ll have a chance.
 
COUGinNCW said:
And If he goes that route can we sustain drives long enough to let our boys catch a rest?
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This. If our O continues to fire on all cylinders, we will move the chains. That is the key for us against a running team (and remember, we are enough of a running team that the other guys don't know for sure what we will be doing).

Our D is like any D. The line will be tired if they are on the field long enough. The cure for that is to have long drives of our own. As with OSU, we need to put enough people in the box to stop the run and dare them to throw. They will be able to throw better than OSU, so that will probably stop us from being blatant about the box stacking, but ultimately it amounts to the same thing. Ferd is OSU with better passing and not quite as good of a ground game.
 
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cr8zyncalif said:
This. If our O continues to fire on all cylinders, we will move the chains. That is the key for us against a running team (and remember, we are enough of a running team that the other guys don't know for sure what we will be doing).

Our D is like any D. The line will be tired if they are on the field long enough. The cure for that is to have long drives of our own. As with OSU, we need to put enough people in the box to stop the run and dare them to throw. They will be able to throw better than OSU, so that will probably stop us from being blatant about the box stacking, but ultimately it amounts to the same thing. Ferd is OSU with better passing and not quite as good of a ground game.
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A balance attack will hurt us. We will probably have to score 38 to win. Do we have that on us?
 
CougPatrol said:
I think we should commit to stacking the box, stopping the run, and rushing the hell out of their QB. He’ll pick us apart to some degree, but we’ll also get them behind the chains.

As long as JDL continues to play like Chad Davis, we’ll have a chance.
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I don't think we need to stack the box. Stanford is currently ranked #115 in rushing offense, with only 98 yards per game. Their passing O is 4th in the Pac-12, and roughly mid-pack in the NCAA, 254 yards per game.

They're also really bad on run D - #123, giving up 220 yards per game. Teams are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against them for the season. They're not bad against the pass, #25 at 188 per game.

Their top 4 receivers are 6'3", 6'5", 6'4", 6'5", and 2 of those are also over 230 lbs. Only one of them is a TE, which historically we've struggled to defend. We did well against OSU's TEs, but McKee is a better QB than Nolan. He's been sacked 12 times - 5 last week against ASU.

I'm not too worried about their run game, but their passing is going to present challenges. We don't match up that well defensively. I think our best strategy has to be trying to dial up pressure, and don't give him time to throw. If we can do that, they'll have to shorten their routes. At that point, we can do the Wilcox/Lake rush 3 drop 8 and clog the lanes.

Offensively, it's pretty simple. Pound at them with Borghi and McIntosh. Throw short routes just enough to keep them in coverage. Force them to take away the run. From the look of their season, they can't...but if they do it should open up the sideline routes.

I don't like the matchup this week, but I feel better about us overall than I did last week.
 
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CougEd said:
A balance attack will hurt us. We will probably have to score 38 to win. Do we have that on us?
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Well, de Laura only had three incompletions in the second half against OSU. So, that 7/10 thing got covered.
 
CougEd said:
A balance attack will hurt us. We will probably have to score 38 to win. Do we have that on us?
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If you take out the USC game, Stanford is averaging 21 pts/game in regulation, and that includes the 41 they scored against Vandy. They also lost their leading WR to a gruesome ankle injury vs. Oregon and proceeded to score 10 points last week.

Lord knows, I’m never “confident” when we play, but if they can’t run the ball at all, I have to think our pass rush will be a huge problem for them.
 
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95coug said:
I don't think we need to stack the box. Stanford is currently ranked #115 in rushing offense, with only 98 yards per game. Their passing O is 4th in the Pac-12, and roughly mid-pack in the NCAA, 254 yards per game.

They're also really bad on run D - #123, giving up 220 yards per game. Teams are averaging 5.1 yards per carry against them for the season. They're not bad against the pass, #25 at 188 per game.

Their top 4 receivers are 6'3", 6'5", 6'4", 6'5", and 2 of those are also over 230 lbs. Only one of them is a TE, which historically we've struggled to defend. We did well against OSU's TEs, but McKee is a better QB than Nolan. He's been sacked 12 times - 5 last week against ASU.

I'm not too worried about their run game, but their passing is going to present challenges. We don't match up that well defensively. I think our best strategy has to be trying to dial up pressure, and don't give him time to throw. If we can do that, they'll have to shorten their routes. At that point, we can do the Wilcox/Lake rush 3 drop 8 and clog the lanes.

Offensively, it's pretty simple. Pound at them with Borghi and McIntosh. Throw short routes just enough to keep them in coverage. Force them to take away the run. From the look of their season, they can't...but if they do it should open up the sideline routes.

I don't like the matchup this week, but I feel better about us overall than I did last week.
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Some good points, 95. I think we will probably have 7 in the box a lot of the time...not just to stop the run, but also because I won't be surprised to see us rush 5 at least a third of the time, and maybe more often than that. As you note, pressure will be important. I was actually surprised how many times we showed an actual 5 man front against OSU. It worked. Situational, but since it worked against OSU, we may see it a few times against Stanford, and that transitions well to a pass rush if the play does not turn out to be a run...especially if you only have 2 DT's in that 5 man front. And of course, just because you show 7 in the box doesn't mean they will all stay there. We also had some 3 man front against OSU on long downs, and the rush 3/drop 8 is not bad if you can get some pressure with 3 guys. We also blitzed a LB from a 3 man front against OSU. Finally, I'm always worried when a team has a good pass catching TE. That has been a bother for us. I don't know how much Ferd is using their TE, but Shaw certainly has liked to use a TE as a receiver when he has had a good one.

I think he will try to run. If we stop that he will pass. Old habits die hard. But who knows? Maybe he will go with the pass from the first play and use that to try to open up the run. I would not bet on that, but it is possible. You are right that we don't match up well defensively, but that goes both ways in this game. The O that maintains drives will win this game.
 
To me, it's all about Shaw and whether he outcoaches himself, as he is wont to do. Nothing would surprise me.
 
CougPatrol said:
If you take out the USC game, Stanford is averaging 21 pts/game in regulation, and that includes the 41 they scored against Vandy. They also lost their leading WR to a gruesome ankle injury vs. Oregon and proceeded to score 10 points last week.

Lord knows, I’m never “confident” when we play, but if they can’t run the ball at all, I have to think our pass rush will be a huge problem for them.
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Take out the USC game. USC has gotten smoked by Furd, OSU, and Utah all at home. They clearly have a home field disadvantage for some reason. Weird anomaly.
 
I don't like the matchup this week, but I feel better about us overall than I did last week.

Next three are the worst part of the sked this year ! Its good Cougs have two of these at home. BYU may still be pissed after their loss. Stanford should come in with a chip on their shoulder also. Can team keep getting better at getting better ?
 
WaltherPPK said:
I don't like the matchup this week, but I feel better about us overall than I did last week.

Next three are the worst part of the sked this year ! Its good Cougs have two of these at home. BYU may still be pissed after their loss. Stanford should come in with a chip on their shoulder also. Can team keep getting better at getting better ?
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What I’ve witnessed the last couple of weeks and depending on whether this program blows up over the next couple weeks w/VaxGate, I can see us finishing 3-3 over the last 6.
 
The Pac-12 is trash this year and anyone can beat anyone. I'm a little surprised that it started as a pick 'em, but with the way this season has gone, it's starting to feel like every game should be. We'll win if we play well and we'll lose if we play poorly. Totally cliche but that's this whole friggin' season.
 
taf88 said:
What I’ve witnessed the last couple of weeks and depending on whether this program blows up over the next couple weeks w/VaxGate, I can see us finishing 3-3 over the last 6.
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Gotta get at least one of the next two. ASU and Oregon on the road going to be unlikely. AZ should be a W and UW is going to be a toss-up
 
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Coug90 said:
Gotta get at least one of the next two. ASU and Oregon on the road going to be unlikely. AZ should be a W and UW is going to be a toss-up
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Exactly, I have us beating Stanford, AZ, and either BYU or uw. Penned losses @ ASU and Oregon. I’m viewing these upcoming games through the 2nd half of OSU. I believe the defense is good enough (plenty of upperclassman) and the offense needs to keep putting points on the board like the 4 second-half TD’s vs. the beavers.
Hopefully the 10/18 mandate doesn’t create a whirlwind and loss of focus.
 
Coug90 said:
Gotta get at least one of the next two. ASU and Oregon on the road going to be unlikely. AZ should be a W and UW is going to be a toss-up
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Barring injuries and coaching implosion, I’ve reclassified Oregon as a winnable game.
 
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CougPatrol said:
Barring injuries and coaching implosion, I’ve reclassified Oregon as a winnable game.
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Oregon is definitely winnable. It appears we have the 2nd half meltdown issues under control but if we look at where we had them, it was when we were without JDL. Rolovich handing over the play calling duties is also a big W in the week to week progress. After watching the win against OSU, I think every game remaining on our schedule is winnable.
 
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CougInSpain said:
Oregon is definitely winnable. It appears we have the 2nd half meltdown issues under control but if we look at where we had them, it was when we were without JDL. Rolovich handing over the play calling duties is also a big W in the week to week progress. After watching the win against OSU, I think every game remaining on our schedule is winnable.
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So do I, but the coaching implosion is likely going to derail what was shaping up to be a very fun team to follow.
 
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CougInSpain said:
I guess just hope for the best
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Yea, that’s all we can do. I’m starting to really like some of the young assistants on the roster. Not sure exactly who is and isn’t vaccinated, so it’s hard to read the tea leaves as to who will be the interim coach.
 
CougPatrol said:
Barring injuries and coaching implosion, I’ve reclassified Oregon as a winnable game.
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Agree, it’s winnable just think unlikely. We rarely play well at ASU but usually crap the bed at Cal too. Who knows. I know Oregon and ASU both have athletic QBs and fairly well rounded teams which usually causes us problems. Still thinking you gotta have one of the next two if only for confidence. You drop both this could tailspin quickly.
 
79COUG said:
Well, rumors are starting to fly that Ed Orgeron at LSU will be looking for a job soon....
We can only hope.
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He's got one of only 3 P5 programs with a worse running game than Stanford this season
 
79COUG said:
Well, rumors are starting to fly that Ed Orgeron at LSU will be looking for a job soon....
We can only hope.
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Good God no. I like the guy. I find him amusing, but there's no way he'd do well in Pullman. He wouldn't want to live there, and he wouldn't like the amount of work required to recruit and succeed there.
 
CougPatrol said:
Good God no. I like the guy. I find him amusing, but there's no way he'd do well in Pullman. He wouldn't want to live there, and he wouldn't like the amount of work required to recruit and succeed there.
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Not only that, but he currently earns $9.0M a year. The pay cut in itself...says it all.
 
CougPatrol said:
Good God no. I like the guy. I find him amusing, but there's no way he'd do well in Pullman. He wouldn't want to live there, and he wouldn't like the amount of work required to recruit and succeed there.
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I was being sarcastic.
 
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Their rush D is weak and their QB (while good) is immobile. Sacked 12 times this year.

Rolo adjusts to feature the running/short passing game and the D gets to the QB 4 times with even more hurries.

27-14 Cougs.
 
Orgeron will rise again. Consistency is not his middle name, but that guy will not stay down permanently.
 
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