Bowl eligibility
- Thread starter BiggsCoug
- Start date
There are 6 5-win teams. At least 2 of those teams will get their 6th. ASU and UA play each other, so do Stanford & Cal. ASU, Stanford, and USC all play UCLA, so have a decent chance at a win. Stanford also gets OSU. Colorado gets Utah (minus Huntley). So we’ll certainly have two more bowl teams, probably more. I think all six teams could potentially get eligible, giving us 10. Hopefully we’ll win more than one this season.
Well let's take a look at it.
WSU - 8-1 Yes we are going bowling.
UW - 7-3 - Yes mutts are going.
Oregon - 6-3 - Yes they are going
Utah - 6-3 - Yes they are going.
Those are the 4 teams that have clinched bowl Eligibility.
There are 6 teams that have 5 wins.
Stanford still plays UCLA, Oregon State, and Cal - They are more than likely going.
Cal - @USC / Stanford / Colorado - That's a tight window but the Colorado game is a possibility. The others are much tougher.
USC - still have Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA - That UCLA game will probably be a win so they are likely to go. Cal is also a possibility to clinch.
Arizona - At 5-5 with 2 games left this will be tough. They play us in Pullman and Arizona State at home.... Coin flip on that last game.
Arizona State - They get UCLA / @ Oregon @ Arizona - That UCLA game makes them a probably to clinch.
Colorado - They get us... Utah... and cal.. That's a tight window with maybe the Cal game but not likely.
So out of the 1 game away teams here are the ones who will probably make it.
Stanford, USC, Arizona State (because they all still get UCLA)
Arizona / Cal / Arizona State / Colorado are all borderline.
Oregon State / UCLA are essentially eliminated from bowl contention with 7 losses each.
So at most 10.
Probably 7-9
I think you pick either Cal or Colorado; I think Cal at this point.
I think you pick either ASU or UA; I think ASU at this point.
That means a total of 8; WSU, UW, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, SC, ASU and Cal.
I think you pick either ASU or UA; I think ASU at this point.
That means a total of 8; WSU, UW, Oregon, Utah, Stanford, SC, ASU and Cal.
Dude you are slacking. You can put together a much more precise analysis than that. I'm thinking like flowchart or playoff bracket. Each week, each matchup, a summary of how the most can get in, how the least might get in, etc. etc.
I think nine teams get to six wins. I think the final standings will be:
North
WSU: 12-1 (8-1) Rose
Oregon: 9-3 (6-3) Alamo
Stanford: 8-4 (6-3) Redbox
UW: 8-4 (6-3) Holiday
Cal: 6-6 (3-6) At-Large
OSU: 2-10 (1-8)
South
USC: 7-6 (6-3) Sun
ASU: 7-5 (5-4) Vegas
Utah: 7-5 (4-5) Cheez-It
UA: 5-7 (4-5)
CU: 6-6 (3-6) At-Large
UCLA: 2-10 (2-7)
Utah losing Huntley is a big deal and I think they struggle to the finish line but I think they beat BYU in the season finale. I do feel terrible for Utah because if I'm right, they miss the Pac-12 championship game again and that sucks for them. We get our revenge over USC in the Pac-12 championship game. The Ducks choke against Stanford earlier in the year will keep them out of an NY6 Bowl. If we were to lose a close game in the Apple Cup, it's actually beneficial for the conference because a 10-2 WSU team might be an attractive team to break into the NY6 bowl mix at that point. I obviously don't give a crap about the rest of the conference in that scenario. If that were to happen, I think the Holiday Bowl takes USC because Stanford doesn't travel well, ASU goes to the Sun and Utah goes to Vegas. Cal would get the Cheez-it Bowl by virtue of a head to head win against CU.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see ASU knock off Oregon, and if that were to happen, the Sun Devils would go to the Pac-12 championship game instead of the condoms. Oregon would drop down to the Vegas Bowl. I feel like the Ducks are more ready for prime time than ASU....but I'm probably wrong. Remember when we were hoping for the Vegas Bowl when the season started? Incredible how times have changed.
EDIT: Because nobody expected this to be a great season, we don't have the OOC and conference support to get into the CFP....and I'm ok with that this year.
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I certainly could be wrong, but I don't see the Ducks getting the 2nd best bowl for the conference even under your scenario. I know they beat UW head-to-head, but at least the Huskies played a decent OOC schedule. Oregon's was the weakest in the country (P-5)....and I just don't think the Ducks are the 2nd best team in the Pac-12. Of course, it's all moot if UW wins out or if the Ducks lose to Utah, ASU, or OSU.
By the way, it would be hard to keep a straight face telling others that your school's football team gets to play in the Cheez-it Bowl.
Glad Cougar
The bowl cares about butts in seats and eyes on TV. Nike U has a higher national profile than the uw. Oregon would be chosen ahead of the uw in my opinion.
Agree that I would take no pride in the Cougs making it to the Cheez-It Bowl.
As far as Oregon goes, I really felt dirty putting them that high but ASU has been erratic and I think Utah is hosed without Huntley. ASU and Oregon could both have at least two game winning streaks under their belts. If Oregon can beat Utah, they'll be feeling confident. ASU obviously should be feeling good. Given that both will have played Utah in consecutive weeks, there is at least a common gauge for them to be compared against. I will not be surprised to see Oregon lose to ASU and fall to the Vegas Bowl.
