Bowls

[Coug-Vandal]

Spending too much time thinking about this but I was wondering what people thought would be the best results for the Cougs to get to the Alamo Bowl. The Alamo Bowl gets 2nd choice. Obviously we need to win out but what else would help.
1. If Stanford wins out it goes to the Rose Bowl.
2. If USC wins out they go to the Rose Bowl.
3. If UCLA wins out they go to the Rose Bowl
4. If Oregon wins out and Stanford loses to Cal they go to the Rose Bowl
5. If Utah wins out and USC loses a game they go to the Rose Bowl.

Of these scenario's what helps the Cougs the most? I'd say Stanford followed by Oregon but I don't think the Oregon scenario is very likely since they need help.

Go Cougs

 

[95coug]

Honestly, I think we're a long shot for the Alamo, even if we win out. I know their rep has been hanging around, but kinda think the winner of USC-UO might go there...especially if it's Oregon.

I think we could land there if:
We win out (obviously)
Stanford beats Cal
USC beats Oregon
UCLA beats USC and Utah

This gives Stanford the north division at 8-1, WSU alone in 2nd place at 7-2, Oregon at 6-3. It gives UCLA the south division title, with them, USC, and Utah all at 6-3 (assuming Utah beats CU).

Stanford then beats UCLA for the conference championship. So then the overall standings would be:

Stanford 8-1, either 11-2 or 10-3 overall, depending on what they do against Notre Dame (which is irrelevant if they win the conference championship)
WSU 7-2, 9-3
UCLA, 6-3, 9-4
USC, 6-3, 8-4
Oregon, 6-3, 8-4 (assuming they beat OSU...which seems likely. But, a loss to the Beavs would eliminate them from the Alamo)
Utah, 6-3, 9-3 (losses to UCLA, USC, and Oregon, so they lose the tiebreaker and fall to 6th)

Cal, ASU, and UA all have at least 5 losses under this scenario, so aren't realistically in the running for the Alamo.

Stanford would be in the Rose. Alamo probably wouldn't take UCLA as a repeat, but could theoretically pick USC and their big market over WSU. This year, I think they'd take WSU based on Leach, the long drought, the style of play, and because USC is so arrogant they'd see the Alamo as a disappointment. They also could hypothetically pick Oregon because of their following, and because they've been hot. They need to lose to SC to cool the streak. If Oregon beats USC, finishes 7-2, 9-3 and with a 6-game win streak, that'll eliminate USC from consideration, and the Ducks go to the Alamo.

 

[Coug-Vandal]

I agree with most of this (except Utah lost to Arizona). I was thinking that if Stanford, the Cougs and Oregon win out the Cougs and Oregon will be tied for 2nd in the North. We beat Oregon. I realize the Alamo Bowl can take who they want. UCLA would have lost to us while Oregon would have beaten USC and one of they has to lose again against each other while the other one would lose to Stanford. So the choice would come down to a Coug team on a win streak v an Oregon team on a win streak. The South winners would have lots of recent losses.

 

[95coug]

I agree with most of this (except Utah lost to Arizona). I was thinking that if Stanford, the Cougs and Oregon win out the Cougs and Oregon will be tied for 2nd in the North. We beat Oregon. I realize the Alamo Bowl can take who they want. UCLA would have lost to us while Oregon would have beaten USC and one of they has to lose again against each other while the other one would lose to Stanford. So the choice would come down to a Coug team on a win streak v an Oregon team on a win streak. The South winners would have lots of recent losses.

That all seems sensible....which is why it probably wouldn't work that way.

There's no formal Pac-12 tiebreaker across the divisions, so if USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah all end up tied (as in my scenario), there's really no way to break the tie. Utah gets eliminated because they lost to all 3 of the others, but UCLA beats USC, USC beats Oregon, and UCLA and Oregon don't play, so the tie stands. But, in the end, it really doesn't matter, because it doesn't decide who goes to the title game, and the bowl games get to pick who they want, so there's no need for the interdivisional tiebreaker. It all depends on perceived marketability...and in most cases when stacked up against USC, UCLA, and Oregon, we're not going to come out on top.