ESPN FPI rankings

[Flatlandcoug]

ESPN FPI

ESPN is pegging us at 6-6 for the 2018 season. Their breakdown (rounding by me):

UW: 11-2
Stanford: 8-4
USC: 9-4
Oregon: 8-4
Cal: 8-4
Utah: 7-5
Arizona: 7-5
UCLA: 5-7
ASU: 5-7
WSU: 6-6
CU: 4-8
OSU: 2-10

WSU schedule breakdown

In looking at our schedule, they only have us favored in five games: Wyoming, SJSU, EWU, OSU and CU. Arizona is a tossup game with them being a slight favorite. Cal, Utah and Oregon are games that we'll have a good shot at winning. UW, USC and Stanford are all projected as tough games for us.

That sounds about right with our current QB situation and it says a lot about Leach that given the issues that we appear to have, they still think we'll probably get to a bowl game.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

I can't see Cal going 8-4. They look more like 6-6 to me. The rest seems reasonable, though I suspect that UW will find a way to lose 3 games, even without any severe injuries. Obviously the wrong injuries could have a major negative impact, but that is true for us all.

I see the most likely outcome for WSU as 7 wins. 8 and 6 are roughly equal in likelihood, and mostly dependent upon how our QB situation jells.

 

[Coug90]

6 is a fair over under. I could go either way on that one. Way too bullish on cal. Wilcox isn’t necessarily the next great HC...jury still out. Hard to argue w UW. Can’t believe Gaines and Gaskin both came back. I hope I’m wrong but they sure don’t look like a 3+ loss team. Time for Peterson to get nipped for some major violations. Perhaps Mueller will find some ties to the UW program during the Russian investigation. Or maybe China will propose tariffs on UW recruits...something...please

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I can't see Cal going 8-4. They look more like 6-6 to me. The rest seems reasonable, though I suspect that UW will find a way to lose 3 games, even without any severe injuries. Obviously the wrong injuries could have a major negative impact, but that is true for us all.

I see the most likely outcome for WSU as 7 wins. 8 and 6 are roughly equal in likelihood, and mostly dependent upon how our QB situation jells.

Agree on Cal. It wouldn't surprise me to see them get upset by UNC to start the season. ESPN has them favored over Oregon and WSU and I wouldn't be surprised if they lost to both of us. They do have a favorable schedule though. If we have a QB who performs well and the OL comes together, I think we have all the other parts to get to 7+ wins.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I can't see Cal going 8-4. They look more like 6-6 to me. The rest seems reasonable, though I suspect that UW will find a way to lose 3 games, even without any severe injuries. Obviously the wrong injuries could have a major negative impact, but that is true for us all.

I see the most likely outcome for WSU as 7 wins. 8 and 6 are roughly equal in likelihood, and mostly dependent upon how our QB situation jells.

This.

Everybody loves Justin "the creeper" Wilcox because he's coaching royalty, but Kal is Kal, they have the same issues they've always had with a roster of a few hot shots and a bunch of middle of the road talent. His staff hasn't shown anything special, their recruiting is still middling - I guess people just figure Coach will just sh!t out some Wilcox magic, throw it on the field and *poof*, winning football.

 

[wazzucougs96]

4 wins will be our ceiling in 2018.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

4 wins will be our ceiling in 2018.

'96, the only way I can see a 4 win ceiling is if we have no QB who is PAC-worthy. Since I don't see that happening, I don't see the 4 win ceiling. Simple as that.

 

[kayak15]

4 wins will be our ceiling in 2018.

Setting a low bar has been the secret of my success but four wins??? Ouch. With a flood of injuries and other bad luck I can see four wins as the floor, not the ceiling. Maybe, 96, you are just a poor speller...?

 

[wazzucougs96]

'96, the only way I can see a 4 win ceiling is if we have no QB who is PAC-worthy. Since I don't see that happening, I don't see the 4 win ceiling. Simple as that.

I must have missed the part where our next QB was proven to be Pac 12 worthy. So far it seems we have a true freshman or a transfer from ECU.

Beyond that we lost a ton of playmakers from last year.

Not to mention most of the coaching staff has turned over.

 

[Loyal Coug]

I must have missed the part where our next QB was proven to be Pac 12 worthy. So far it seems we have a true freshman or a transfer from ECU.

Beyond that we lost a ton of playmakers from last year.

Not to mention most of the coaching staff has turned over.

Well last I read we have 2 redshirt Junior QB's fighting for the starting spot. I was thinking about this today, and haven't done the research - but I think CML had several "one year" starting QB's at TT. If I recall, they were most/all seniors, but my question to myself was whether they were very good in terms of rankings, did they go pro, whatever. Point being can a mediocre "system" QB succeed in his offense, as everyone thinks CML's QB's are. If that is the case, then our upperclassmen QB's may do just fine.

I'm not arguing this, just asking the question and/or raising the issue.

And where have you been 96? I had almost forgotten that I don't like you! Damn poster amnesia......

 

[wazzucougs96]

Well last I read we have 2 redshirt Junior QB's fighting for the starting spot. I was thinking about this today, and haven't done the research - but I think CML had several "one year" starting QB's at TT. If I recall, they were most/all seniors, but my question to myself was whether they were very good in terms of rankings, did they go pro, whatever. Point being can a mediocre "system" QB succeed in his offense, as everyone thinks CML's QB's are. If that is the case, then our upperclassmen QB's may do just fine.

I'm not arguing this, just asking the question and/or raising the issue.

And where have you been 96? I had almost forgotten that I don't like you! Damn poster amnesia......

I'm around - just haven't had much to say lately.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

4 wins will be our ceiling in 2018.

I agree with the comments that 4 wins is our floor for 2018. It could happen, but we are facing a Wyoming team that was not all that good with a 1st round QB under center and he's gone. San Jose State sucks and EWU is not the same team that beat us a while back. We should start out 3-0. We'll be a 10 point favorite over Oregon State and most likely a 5 point favorite over Colorado. Utah, Cal and Arizona are all home games and they will all be very low point spreads.

Oregon has me a bit nervous because they are probably due to give us a butt kicking but they didn't look particularly impressive against Boise State in their bowl game, so I still think we have a legit shot against them. I think USC, Stanford and UW all win but given the way that Leach seems to have Shaw's number, I figure we'll scare Stanford. If Leach is the magical wizard that we think he is, another 8-4 finish is more likely than a 4-8 finish, but not by much.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Well last I read we have 2 redshirt Junior QB's fighting for the starting spot. I was thinking about this today, and haven't done the research - but I think CML had several "one year" starting QB's at TT. If I recall, they were most/all seniors, but my question to myself was whether they were very good in terms of rankings, did they go pro, whatever. Point being can a mediocre "system" QB succeed in his offense, as everyone thinks CML's QB's are. If that is the case, then our upperclassmen QB's may do just fine.

I'm not arguing this, just asking the question and/or raising the issue.

And where have you been 96? I had almost forgotten that I don't like you! Damn poster amnesia......

Yes, Loyal, CML simply reloaded at QB every year at TT, often with kids who were in their last year of eligibility, which meant that they would be single year starters. The fact that he was able to do that was (IMHO) the main reason that other teams started referring to his kids as "system QB's" who were supposedly not all that good but looked great due to the system. I laugh at that for several reasons, but I'll leave you with this thought: You can't have it both ways. Either he always had a great QB in the fold that nobody realized was good until they got their season to shine...Or, he really did not have a great QB every year but that was OK because with his system he didn't really need one. I'll point out that either way, I'm not worried about our QB situation this fall. If CML does not have a functional QB, it will be the first time. I completely agree that QB experience helps, and could easily make the difference between a W or an L in a few games. But a 4 win ceiling is absurd if you look at history/track record.

 

[wazzucougs96]

I agree with the comments that 4 wins is our floor for 2018. It could happen, but we are facing a Wyoming team that was not all that good with a 1st round QB under center and he's gone. San Jose State sucks and EWU is not the same team that beat us a while back. We should start out 3-0. We'll be a 10 point favorite over Oregon State and most likely a 5 point favorite over Colorado. Utah, Cal and Arizona are all home games and they will all be very low point spreads.

Oregon has me a bit nervous because they are probably due to give us a butt kicking but they didn't look particularly impressive against Boise State in their bowl game, so I still think we have a legit shot against them. I think USC, Stanford and UW all win but given the way that Leach seems to have Shaw's number, I figure we'll scare Stanford. If Leach is the magical wizard that we think he is, another 8-4 finish is more likely than a 4-8 finish, but not by much.

Arizona? LOL. They are going to throttle us.

 

[Loyal Coug]

Yes, Loyal, CML simply reloaded at QB every year at TT, often with kids who were in their last year of eligibility, which meant that they would be single year starters. The fact that he was able to do that was (IMHO) the main reason that other teams started referring to his kids as "system QB's" who were supposedly not all that good but looked great due to the system. I laugh at that for several reasons, but I'll leave you with this thought: You can't have it both ways. Either he always had a great QB in the fold that nobody realized was good until they got their season to shine...Or, he really did not have a great QB every year but that was OK because with his system he didn't really need one. I'll point out that either way, I'm not worried about our QB situation this fall. If CML does not have a functional QB, it will be the first time. I completely agree that QB experience helps, and could easily make the difference between a W or an L in a few games. But a 4 win ceiling is absurd if you look at history/track record.

Matt Kegel, Mike Pattinson and I agree that not starting until you are a 5th year Senior year doesn't mean you aren't a good QB. It's all about who is in front of you. And I am not all that worried either. If Tinsley and the other guy completely sucked, they wouldn't be getting a bunch of reps.

 

[CougPatrol]

I figure we'll scare Stanford.

I think we have a shot a bowl game this season, but I don't at all feel confident about facing Stanford.

 

[kayak15]

Arizona? LOL. They are going to throttle us.

I'm not so sure of that, 96. Arizona beat us last year by running up the middle after Pelluer and Dotson were absent because of injuries. The young kids inserted got played by Az and the Wildcats rolled over us. They won't be able to do that this year. Pelluer is back and the youngsters are now battle hardened. I am confident that Claeys will have that hole solidified by the time that they play us. Az is supposed to be good this coming year and I am not predicting a victory by the Cougs but we will be competitive, not throttled in my estimation. They may well be the favorites but we have a decent chance.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

I think we have a shot a bowl game this season, but I don't at all feel confident about facing Stanford.

The last six years, we've given Stanford fits into the fourth quarter in most games, beaten them twice and should have beaten them in 3 straight. We had them sweating in 2012 even though we sucked that year. Leach just seems to have a good feel for game planning against the Cardinal and Shaw.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

The last six years, we've given Stanford fits into the fourth quarter in most games, beaten them twice and should have beaten them in 3 straight. We had them sweating in 2012 even though we sucked that year. Leach just seems to have a good feel for game planning against the Cardinal and Shaw.

Shaw and Leach are the same bird: the run what they run and that's it. So for them its a matter of talent x execution x effort = victory.

This is in contrast to a coach like Peterson, who like Belichek gameplans against an opponents weaknesses and tries to exploit them.

 

[CougEd]

'96, the only way I can see a 4 win ceiling is if we have no QB who is PAC-worthy. Since I don't see that happening, I don't see the 4 win ceiling. Simple as that.

If they go 2-1 in the first three non conference games I think you could be right. The ingredients of a new d line, new QB, 3/5's of offensive line needs to be replaced, a lack of speed at WR with presumably their best receiver leaving early and I could see that dip. I think they will win five is my prediction without knowing who is injured and who is not.

And it pains me to say year six in a row the Apple Cup goes to Seattle.

 

[YakiCoug]

If they go 2-1 in the first three non conference games I think you could be right. The ingredients of a new d line, new QB, 3/5's of offensive line needs to be replaced, a lack of speed at WR with presumably their best receiver leaving early and I could see that dip. I think they will win five is my prediction without knowing who is injured and who is not.

And it pains me to say year six in a row the Apple Cup goes to Seattle.

If WSU finishes 4-8, we can always blather on for years and years how we were two plays away from 6-6, a bowl game, and on the cusp of three consecutive 10-win seasons...

 

[CougEd]

If WSU finishes 4-8, we can always blather on for years and years how we were two plays away from 6-6, a bowl game, and on the cusp of three consecutive 10-win seasons...

If WSU finishes 4-8, we can always blather on for years and years how we were two plays away from 6-6, a bowl game, and on the cusp of three consecutive 10-win seasons...

If we have a QB and are 3 three plays away from 6-6 then so be it and we can talk about it for as long as you want.

 

[YakiCoug]

If we have a QB and are 3 three plays away from 6-6 then so be it and we can talk about it for as long as you want.

You got yourself in such a tizzy you quoted me twice. It’s dangerous at your age to get so worked up ...

 

[Loyal Coug]

If we have a QB and are 3 three plays away from 6-6 then so be it and we can talk about it for as long as you want.

Ahhh I see through your scenario, Ed. That would occur in Apple Cup and you know we would Coug it.

 

[CougEd]

You got yourself in such a tizzy you quoted me twice. It’s dangerous at your age to get so worked up ...

Tizzy about what? Simply said you could talk about it as long as you want.

 

[wazzucougs96]

I'm not so sure of that, 96. Arizona beat us last year by running up the middle after Pelluer and Dotson were absent because of injuries. The young kids inserted got played by Az and the Wildcats rolled over us. They won't be able to do that this year. Pelluer is back and the youngsters are now battle hardened. I am confident that Claeys will have that hole solidified by the time that they play us. Az is supposed to be good this coming year and I am not predicting a victory by the Cougs but we will be competitive, not throttled in my estimation. They may well be the favorites but we have a decent chance.

They have a dual threat QB and a new coach that runs a better version of our offense. Khalil Tate is going to feast on us, again.

 

[Cougsocal]

If you compare talent on talent, WSU always fares poorly against its Pac-12 foes. Facts are facts, Leach has had one good recruiting class in his time at WSU, his most recent. The rest were bottom wrung. However, this is a man who massaged 6 wins out of the worst constellation of talent (used loosely) to ever grace the Pac-12. Paul Wulff's recruits took "bottom wrung" to a new level. Rankings in the 90s (compared to 50s), competing with the weakest schools in all the FBS, not just the Pac-12. If Leach can get 6 wins out of that group, I wouldn't bet against him on 6 wins, with far better talent. And let's not forget that we are competing in the worst conference in major football, against a number of newbie coaches trying to implement new systems. In short, we aren't competing in a traditionally loaded Pac-12 conference.

Hell, 8 wins wouldn't surprise me.