Here is what I don't agree with the notion of consolidation and playoffs

[ttowncoug]

I keep reading we are headed toward two super conference that will control the post season etc.

I firmly believe that the SEC and ESPN (through their own proposal) want to see an "open" 12 team playoff. ESPN wants TV ratings. Period. They don't care if who it is as long as they can sell TV ads or get subscriptions.

What they all need to understand what makes the NFL great is parity. Parity (IE anyone can win each week) drives TV viewership.

A larger playoff would accomplish that.

I personally think where this ends up is some sort of an expanded Pac-10/12. Big-12 has it's niche. ACC same. The Power 5 get playoff locks. The Big 2 will come up with some scheme around SOS and/or computer ratings that benefit.

The SEC and Big-10 will get more TV revenue because of the markets they serve and the ratings they generate.

 

[mikalalas]

I keep reading we are headed toward two super conference that will control the post season etc.

I firmly believe that the SEC and ESPN (through their own proposal) want to see an "open" 12 team playoff. ESPN wants TV ratings. Period. They don't care if who it is as long as they can sell TV ads or get subscriptions.

What they all need to understand what makes the NFL great is parity. Parity (IE anyone can win each week) drives TV viewership.

A larger playoff would accomplish that.

I personally think where this ends up is some sort of an expanded Pac-10/12. Big-12 has it's niche. ACC same. The Power 5 get playoff locks. The Big 2 will come up with some scheme around SOS and/or computer ratings that benefit.

The SEC and Big-10 will get more TV revenue because of the markets they serve and the ratings they generate.

Right now, this has gone to a point of no return, etc.

There are 2,3 probabilities, possibilities, ways that this will go.

Either the Pac 12/ACC form a binding no raiding each other alliance with a joint media deal with ESPN(WSU ESPN DARLING, FOX SPORTS WANTS 2 SUPER CONFERENCES, BUT ESPN OK WITH 3 SUPER CONFERENCES, EXPANDED PLAYOFFS, ETC), and then Absorbs the Big 12, forms a 36 team super conference to go-to a P3.

OR

THE ACC, BIG 12, PAC 12 ALL DIE, with some going to the 2 super conferences, and some like WSU get left out.

OR.

The ACC, Pac 12, Big 12 stay intact, an or either Big 12 or Pac 12 die, while the remaining stay intact, BUT ALL 2,3 STAYING INTACT BECOME TOTALLY IRRELEVEANT, NOT WATCH, ETC, .

That's the way it will be. The point of no return has passed.

 

[CougPatrol]

The problem for WSU and other tweener programs is that the networks and super conference charter schools don't care about parity. When the dust settles, and the Notre Dame's, Clemson's, Miami's, etc. have found a home, the super leagues won't care if WSU, Cincinnati, Boise State, etc. are denied a chance at a playoff run. If anything, they'd prefer it if marginal bigger named "underdogs" like Ole Miss or Michigan State made a run.

Major League Baseball is a good comparison. They know that a salary cap and revenue sharing would be make for a significantly more competitive league, but neither the league or the networks want that. Why? Because it's better for ratings if the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, etc. consistently compete for playoff runs. There are only a few "national baseball brands" that attract neutral fans, and their worst fear is a Mariners/Marlins or Royals/Diamond Backs World Series.

The hope for the WSU's of the college football world is that a soon to be formed "tier 2" league is strong enough to build their own league and playoff if necessary. I think that's a distinct possibility too. If the super league model gets too greedy, there will be enough remaining programs available to form a viable competing option, even if the quality of play isn't quite at the level of the super league.

The tier 2 league will still have a strong tier 2 network/streaming deal, and the money, while not as good, won't be chump change either. When the initial super league buzz wears off, there will be a lot of neutral fans who grow tired of the same lame corporate matchups year after year. I personally believe this will be the fly in the ointment for the super league. Yes, they're going to pull way ahead of the programs who get left out, but the foundation is there for the tier 2 league to compete against them directly. The WSU's, OSU's, Boise State's, Texas Tech's, Oklahoma State's, Baylor's, Virginia Tech's, West Virginia's, Boston College's, etc. will still be able to draw 30-60K fans/game, and all of those fans will gravitate away from the super league. That's a real problem for them.

If this tier 2 scenario plays out, I would want them to compete directly against the super league. Extend a middle finger and sell hard against them. Name your league something catchy, and market it as the TRUE collegiate football, student/athlete league. Sell hard against their corporate/network identity. Brand THEM the Saudi backed LIV Tour, and YOU the student/athlete league. Play hardball. If they're stupid enough to leave 50 established programs, all of whom are attracting 30-60K fans/game with long established football traditions, available to immediately compete against them in a different league on a different network/streaming package, it will take away from their empire. The joke will be on them.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

It is really about short term vs. intermediate term. Shortest term, mega-conferences will probably return the greatest viewership. Mid-term, that will turn into a slide as the lack of parity means that you have at most 12-15 top teams and a bunch of punching bags. There is no reason to watch a punching bag get whupped, and viewership will reflect that. If the networks are too dumb to understand cause and effect and drive that to happen, then very quickly Humpty Dumpty will be broken beyond repair, and there will be no going back. The networks are first and foremost, greedy. They are not dumb, but their greed will overcome their thought processes for a while. The real question for me relates to when will the networks recognize that short term greed will kill their mid-term golden goose? FYI, I consider a short term time horizon to be 3-4 years; and a mid-term to be 7-8 years. There is no need to discuss long term, because without some kind of revenue sharing parity, there is no long term for college football...just a death spiral as the product becomes unappealing and fans become disgusted. The NFL figured that out, due primarily to the ownership group's perspective on the matter. Will ESPN, Fox and the other networks figure it out for the college game? And even if they do, will they figure it out in time? Hard to say.

 

[ttowncoug]

Frankly, I think ESPN got the "prize" by having the SEC broadcast rights and they put the cherry on top by pulling the two relevant programs from the Big-12 in the mix.

I don't necessarily think ESPN - solely them - with all the channels and the broadcast windows, wants the landscape to significantly change.

Fox went after whatever "grab" they could to make their Big-10 investment a bigger splash. I think the Fox move - not ESPN's SEC play - is going to be the thing that backfires. We all know USC, and their fans, will figure out some way to blame someone or something if they don't see immediate success in the Big-10. It would not surprise me at all to see both those schools come limping back at some point either.

 

[CougInSpain]

The problem for WSU and other tweener programs is that the networks and super conference charter schools don't care about parity. When the dust settles, and the Notre Dame's, Clemson's, Miami's, etc. have found a home, the super leagues won't care if WSU, Cincinnati, Boise State, etc. are denied a chance at a playoff run. If anything, they'd prefer it if marginal bigger named "underdogs" like Ole Miss or Michigan State made a run.

Major League Baseball is a good comparison. They know that a salary cap and revenue sharing would be make for a significantly more competitive league, but neither the league or the networks want that. Why? Because it's better for ratings if the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Cardinals, etc. consistently compete for playoff runs. There are only a few "national baseball brands" that attract neutral fans, and their worst fear is a Mariners/Marlins or Royals/Diamond Backs World Series.

The hope for the WSU's of the college football world is that a soon to be formed "tier 2" league is strong enough to build their own league and playoff if necessary. I think that's a distinct possibility too. If the super league model gets too greedy, there will be enough remaining programs available to form a viable competing option, even if the quality of play isn't quite at the level of the super league.

The tier 2 league will still have a strong tier 2 network/streaming deal, and the money, while not as good, won't be chump change either. When the initial super league buzz wears off, there will be a lot of neutral fans who grow tired of the same lame corporate matchups year after year. I personally believe this will be the fly in the ointment for the super league. Yes, they're going to pull way ahead of the programs who get left out, but the foundation is there for the tier 2 league to compete against them directly. The WSU's, OSU's, Boise State's, Texas Tech's, Oklahoma State's, Baylor's, Virginia Tech's, West Virginia's, Boston College's, etc. will still be able to draw 30-60K fans/game, and all of those fans will gravitate away from the super league. That's a real problem for them.

If this tier 2 scenario plays out, I would want them to compete directly against the super league. Extend a middle finger and sell hard against them. Name your league something catchy, and market it as the TRUE collegiate football, student/athlete league. Sell hard against their corporate/network identity. Brand THEM the Saudi backed LIV Tour, and YOU the student/athlete league. Play hardball. If they're stupid enough to leave 50 established programs, all of whom are attracting 30-60K fans/game with long established football traditions, available to immediately compete against them in a different league on a different network/streaming package, it will take away from their empire. The joke will be on them.

I think you are on to something with this train of thought. Why would someone who is a fan of Fresno St or Northwestern, Georgia Tech etc, tune in to watch Notre Dame take on Michigan or Alabama play Georgia? Because if they are playing in the same organization at the same level, then the interest level is elevated to compare your preferred program to the the so-called elites of the country. To see if you measure up and if the playoff was expanded, how they would fare against them. National interest of any sort of Super League creation will peak year one and after that, a big fall off in viewership (especially if the non-chosen programs can organize effectively as you eluded to).

 

[CougPatrol]

I think you are on to something with this train of thought. Why would someone who is a fan of Fresno St or Northwestern, Georgia Tech etc, tune in to watch Notre Dame take on Michigan or Alabama play Georgia? Because if they are playing in the same organization at the same level, then the interest level is elevated to compare your preferred program to the the so-called elites of the country. To see if you measure up and if the playoff was expanded, how they would fare against them. National interest of any sort of Super League creation will peak year one and after that, a big fall off in viewership (especially if the non-chosen programs can organize effectively as you eluded to).

Yea, I think it's a big gamble for the super conference brokers to hedge their bets on 32 teams cancelling out 50+ established programs.

Look at programs like Oregon State, WSU, Wake Forest, Colorado, Boston College, etc, etc, etc. Do the majority of their fans follow their programs for the dream of a National Championship? When we were watching Georgia and Alabama play last year, did you see a lot of similarities between their rosters and ours, or anyone's in the P12? We already known for years that we're essentially playing tier 2 football in comparison to the big boys.

That's why I think the super conference move is risky, and in some ways it's a great opportunity for the remaining programs in the ACC, Big12, and P12, and bigger G6 schools to galvanize and forge their own FU association. If the B10 and SEC cap their conferences at 32 or 36, that'll leave 90 D1 programs looking for a new league. There's a Hell of a lot of opportunity for lucrative TV/media contracts to build around big time football. You'll have the military academies, big schools in every region, and opportunities galore. The super league will have regular season mega games, but they'll also have turd games like UCLA at Rutgers, Indiana at USC, etc. Those games, head-to-head, won't do any better than games like WSU vs. Boise State, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, Boston College vs. Miami.

I would love it if the "other" programs acted now on something like this instead of being reactive to what the B10 and SEC do. Maybe file a motion to leave the NCAA altogether and form their own alliance.

 

[BiggsCoug]

Yea, I think it's a big gamble for the super conference brokers to hedge their bets on 32 teams cancelling out 50+ established programs.

Look at programs like Oregon State, WSU, Wake Forest, Colorado, Boston College, etc, etc, etc. Do the majority of their fans follow their programs for the dream of a National Championship? When we were watching Georgia and Alabama play last year, did you see a lot of similarities between their rosters and ours, or anyone's in the P12? We already known for years that we're essentially playing tier 2 football in comparison to the big boys.

That's why I think the super conference move is risky, and in some ways it's a great opportunity for the remaining programs in the ACC, Big12, and P12, and bigger G6 schools to galvanize and forge their own FU association. If the B10 and SEC cap their conferences at 32 or 36, that'll leave 90 D1 programs looking for a new league. There's a Hell of a lot of opportunity for lucrative TV/media contracts to build around big time football. You'll have the military academies, big schools in every region, and opportunities galore. The super league will have regular season mega games, but they'll also have turd games like UCLA at Rutgers, Indiana at USC, etc. Those games, head-to-head, won't do any better than games like WSU vs. Boise State, Oklahoma State vs. Baylor, Boston College vs. Miami.

I would love it if the "other" programs acted now on something like this instead of being reactive to what the B10 and SEC do. Maybe file a motion to leave the NCAA altogether and form their own alliance.

Like a B12, ACC, P10 alliance of 36 teams with 3 divisions? Each div plays 11 div games and 1 crossover… Crossover game is names in a hat, coin toss for home field, 2 year deal…. Make it a season opener, drum up some buzz… Best 2 teams play a championship game and make a run at a playoff spot…

How’s that?

 

[mikalalas]

Like a B12, ACC, P10 alliance of 36 teams with 3 divisions? Each div plays 11 div games and 1 crossover… Crossover game is names in a hat, coin toss for home field, 2 year deal…. Make it a season opener, drum up some buzz… Best 2 teams play a championship game and make a run at a playoff spot…

How’s that?

I think the Pac 12 and ACC will MERGE, become a new conference eventually, and then the New Merged Conference league will either Absorb Big 12, or have Big 12 Merge with the Pac 12's and ACC's MERGED conference to form a 36 to 40 team superleague P3 conference comparable to the Big 10, but NOT SEC, with 4 divisions filled with a mix of different teams from the Pac 12, ACC, Big 12. With a 4 team mini playoff, with all 4 teams in the mini play off going to the expanded main playoff, as 1 league champ, and 2, 3 at large berths into play offs.

 

[Cougini5591]

Like a B12, ACC, P10 alliance of 36 teams with 3 divisions? Each div plays 11 div games and 1 crossover… Crossover game is names in a hat, coin toss for home field, 2 year deal…. Make it a season opener, drum up some buzz… Best 2 teams play a championship game and make a run at a playoff spot…

How’s that?

It's all about the money and if schools can keep their sports happening. The football kinda/sorta made it so easy everything else can function. Sprinkle some mens hoops.

I'd say that the first thing to kill the "2nd level club" of Division 1 football will be how the percentage of revenue vs. expenses goes yucky.

Then their answer will be to just cut more.

 

[ttowncoug]

Media companies would prefer to divide and conquer to get the best deal for them. As opposed to having limited negotiating power with one or two super conferences.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Agree completely with the idea that in the long run, the current move to super conferences is going to backfire on ESPN and Fox. The majority of college football fans are going to turn their backs on it pretty quickly. I know that I will not spend any time watching that league. The thing that the media organizations are failing to understand when they are doing their calculus is that without maintaining rivalries, the left out fanbases are going to be bitter about the changes and the grudges will outlive any TV contracts.

 

[95coug]

Agree completely with the idea that in the long run, the current move to super conferences is going to backfire on ESPN and Fox. The majority of college football fans are going to turn their backs on it pretty quickly. I know that I will not spend any time watching that league. The thing that the media organizations are failing to understand when they are doing their calculus is that without maintaining rivalries, the left out fanbases are going to be bitter about the changes and the grudges will outlive any TV contracts.

Well, and fans whose teams don’t have a path to glory won’t be interested.

Right now, there are a lot of teams who have little realistic chance at a playoff berth, but if they get all the right bounces they could get one.

In the superconference model, nobody outside those conferences has a shot. If the pinnacle of their season is the Vegas bowl against the #8 Big 10 team, who’s going to spend the time?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Well, and fans whose teams don’t have a path to glory won’t be interested.

Right now, there are a lot of teams who have little realistic chance at a playoff berth, but if they get all the right bounces they could get one.

In the superconference model, nobody outside those conferences has a shot. If the pinnacle of their season is the Vegas bowl against the #8 Big 10 team, who’s going to spend the time?

Are you saying that you expect fans for schools like WSU are going to quit watching too?

 

[CougPatrol]

Are you saying that you expect fans for schools like WSU are going to quit watching too?

I don't see that happening to WSU, Oregon State, Wake Forest, etc, etc, etc., which is why I think this is a dangerous move for the super conferences. There are 50-70 programs out there with large fan bases, long standing football traditions, and with the conscious reality that they haven't been able to compete with the top-15 mega programs for over a decade or longer anyways. WSU vs. Alabama? Come on. Maybe once in 10 years we could line up with them. Maybe.

So when the dust settles on these changes, WSU fans will continue to turn out to see football games, because frankly, no matter who we line up against, we're still likely to be playing over our heads. WSU vs. Boise State would be a big game for us. West Virginia vs. Pitt will always be a big game. BYU vs. Utah. There are countless other big games that won't involve super conferences, and on those weekends, fans of those "smaller" programs won't be tuning into the SEC or B10 games. That's why I think this is destined implode; particularly when streaming takes over.

 

[CougPatrol]

Well, and fans whose teams don’t have a path to glory won’t be interested.

Right now, there are a lot of teams who have little realistic chance at a playoff berth, but if they get all the right bounces they could get one.

In the superconference model, nobody outside those conferences has a shot. If the pinnacle of their season is the Vegas bowl against the #8 Big 10 team, who’s going to spend the time?

WSU fans would, and we're not alone. Hell, we get excited when we play Central Michigan in El Paso. With that said, I can see this conference realignment saga unfolding in multiple ways, including the implosion of the NCAA and the formation of an independent affiliation.

If the B10 and SEC try to go 32 team super league, then I could see the remaining 60-80 programs cutting them loose and reforming their own association. There's a strong market more a league that already has established programs with attendance numbers ranging anywhere from 20-70K. European soccer is a good example of how multiple professional leagues can thrive simultaneously. Spain, England, Italy, and Germany have high end, standing room only leagues.

I find it hard to believe that a 32 team super league is going to extinguish 80 established D1 programs. In fact, I think removing the fat cats of the corporate college football world may actually improve the fan experience of the "tier 2" league.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I think you are on to something with this train of thought. Why would someone who is a fan of Fresno St or Northwestern, Georgia Tech etc, tune in to watch Notre Dame take on Michigan or Alabama play Georgia? Because if they are playing in the same organization at the same level, then the interest level is elevated to compare your preferred program to the the so-called elites of the country. To see if you measure up and if the playoff was expanded, how they would fare against them. National interest of any sort of Super League creation will peak year one and after that, a big fall off in viewership (especially if the non-chosen programs can organize effectively as you eluded to).

Because the networks will be driving the hype train. It will be no coincidence that the Heisman and all the other awards will suddenly be consolidated to the super conference(s), and the "best players" will all be playing there as well. A lot of fans will want to see the next Trevor Lawrence play the next Joe Burrow, because it will be hyped as the showdown of the century.

 

[CougPatrol]

Because the networks will be driving the hype train. It will be no coincidence that the Heisman and all the other awards will suddenly be consolidated to the super conference(s), and the "best players" will all be playing there as well. A lot of fans will want to see the next Trevor Lawrence play the next Joe Burrow, because it will be hyped as the showdown of the century.

So the tier 2 schools break away and hand out their own awards. There will be a larger pool of schools, so the awards will still have merit.

 

[CougInSpain]

So the tier 2 schools break away and hand out their own awards. There will be a larger pool of schools, so the awards will still have merit.

Exactly... Instead of the Heisman, you can have the Banks Trophy, as in Ernie Banks. Since Syracuse won't be a part of the mix, what better way to honor a guy like that than to create a Heisman equivalent award in his name.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

The UC Board of Regents has me wondering if we won't end up seeing a massive revolt by academic leadership that demands that these semi-pro teams can no longer be considered a part of the university system and destroying the whole "super conference" idea before it really gets started.

Ironically, Title IX might end up being the main thing to keep that from happening. Universities have become dependent on football dollars to at least partially fund Olympic sports so they'd have to kill those programs to take the high ground.

Never mind....we're stuck with this mess.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

The UC Board of Regents has me wondering if we won't end up seeing a massive revolt by academic leadership that demands that these semi-pro teams can no longer be considered a part of the university system and destroying the whole "super conference" idea before it really gets started.

Ironically, Title IX might end up being the main thing to keep that from happening. Universities have become dependent on football dollars to at least partially fund Olympic sports so they'd have to kill those programs to take the high ground.

Never mind....we're stuck with this mess.

Of course Title IX could be used to bring some sense to this, but it won't of course.

If anyone ever needed clear cut, in-your-face evidence of east coast/ media bias, this is about as blatant as you can get. Unfortunately, the power structure is tilted in their favor and west coast teams have no choice but to be hung out to dry.

 

[95coug]

Are you saying that you expect fans for schools like WSU are going to quit watching too?

Unless they separate into their own unit, yes. If the superconferences have their playoff and the other 80 have a separate system, most of the fans will give it a chance.