More positive new for spring sports

[Cougsocal]

Since I last posted 10 days ago, the little leftist country of Sweden (in USA terms), which has become the unwitting champion of the right, and the punching bag for the left, on the "pandemics are political" front, has had just 27 corona virus deaths and now has only 48 serious cases in the entire country. And these numbers continue to drop.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

As you know, Sweden is the only western country that went with the social distancing lite approach. So like it or not, they are the only real crystal ball we have on what to expect in are future on the Covid 19 front. (Who really cares if they got it right or not? Geez, Sweden admits they fed their elderly to the sharks). That crystal ball points to the fact that after this second surge we are facing, the virus will likely die out quite rapidly. Spring sports -- football and basketball concurrent seems to be a real possibility. You have to like that!!!

How, you might ask, when pandemics usually have a 3 year course, can this happen? Well, a study out of, yes, Sweden, points to corona virus specific T cell "immunity" (more properly call "resistance") at twice the rate of positive antibodies findings in the population.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...st-immunity-levels-study-sweden-a9595491.html

Think about it, disease magnets, kids, don't get it or spread it. Many adults get it but don't show symptoms. We aren't backing the morgue truck up to nursing homes again during part II. Ground zero during part I, NYC's, numbers now mirror Sweden's, with zero uptick during part II. Sure, its all because of great leadership, hand washing and social --- distancing. I have a bridge for sale. What else explains how weird this virus behaves in the population. The fact that common colds, i.e. corona viruses, have been so prevalent over the millennia, most people's immune systems are primed to fight them, is likely going to, and is, saving our bacon now.

Punching a whole in my analysis and logic, that's great, even appreciated. Think of it as a theoretical science exercise.

 

[dgibbons]

Just adding that after my father in law and mother in law recovered, my brother in law and sister in law did the antibody test. Brother in law had antibodies, sister in law had T-cells.

 

[79COUG]

Since I last posted 10 days ago, the little leftist country of Sweden (in USA terms), which has become the unwitting champion of the right, and the punching bag for the left, on the "pandemics are political" front, has had just 27 corona virus deaths and now has only 48 serious cases in the entire country. And these numbers continue to drop.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

As you know, Sweden is the only western country that went with the social distancing lite approach. So like it or not, they are the only real crystal ball we have on what to expect in are future on the Covid 19 front. (Who really cares if they got it right or not? Geez, Sweden admits they fed their elderly to the sharks). That crystal ball points to the fact that after this second surge we are facing, the virus will likely die out quite rapidly. Spring sports -- football and basketball concurrent seems to be a real possibility. You have to like that!!!

How, you might ask, when pandemics usually have a 3 year course, can this happen? Well, a study out of, yes, Sweden, points to corona virus specific T cell "immunity" (more properly call "resistance") at twice the rate of positive antibodies findings in the population.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...st-immunity-levels-study-sweden-a9595491.html

Think about it, disease magnets, kids, don't get it or spread it. Many adults get it but don't show symptoms. We aren't backing the morgue truck up to nursing homes again during part II. Ground zero during part I, NYC's, numbers now mirror Sweden's, with zero uptick during part II. Sure, its all because of great leadership, hand washing and social --- distancing. I have a bridge for sale. What else explains how weird this virus behaves in the population. The fact that common colds, i.e. corona viruses, have been so prevalent over the millennia, most people's immune systems are primed to fight them, is likely going to, and is, saving our bacon now.

Punching a whole in my analysis and logic, that's great, even appreciated. Think of it as a theoretical science exercise.

Stop making sense, Socal!! You KNOW that's not allowed when contradicting the narrative!
Shame on you...

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Just adding that after my father in law and mother in law recovered, my brother in law and sister in law did the antibody test. Brother in law had antibodies, sister in law had T-cells.

I can't remember, Gib: did your FIL and MIL actually test positive or did they get the ubiquitous physician nod of "yeah, looks like SarsCov2"?

Not that it matters as far as them getting better or not, just wondering. Of all the "positive" cases I've personally been around its been about 50/50 between actually testing positive with a swab and the Dr's best guess.

 

[ttowncoug]

I'm hearing locally that many of the infectious disease doctors (locally), believe the virus will just phase out...maybe ahead of a wide spread vaccine.

Fingers crossed.

In my opinion, football will be played....delayed start...for how long? Too much money at stake and schools can't afford NOT to have football played this year.

NCAA needs to allow other sports to be delayed or deferred for a season, based on University decisions.

 

[dgibbons]

I can't remember, Gib: did your FIL and MIL actually test positive or did they get the ubiquitous physician nod of "yeah, looks like SarsCov2"?

Not that it matters as far as them getting better or not, just wondering. Of all the "positive" cases I've personally been around its been about 50/50 between actually testing positive with a swab and the Dr's best guess.

They tested positive. This was back in March. Father in law recovered with bed rest. Mother in law was heading downhill and took the hydroxychloraquine cocktail and symptoms were gone the next day.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Stop making sense, Socal!! You KNOW that's not allowed when contradicting the narrative!
Shame on you...

I will say that the numbers I looked at a couple of weeks ago for Sweden weren't a shining beacon on "yes, this is how we do it", at least as far as infection rate and mortality rate. They were good/ fine, but not a shining beacon.

THAT BEING SAID, we have every news outlet parroting "cases" as the gold standard of how we should be measuring... fck, I don't even know what. Measuring the impact? The potential impact? I mean, layman's logic would dictate that if 100 people are positive "cases", but out of 100 of them only 1 or even 0 get symptoms or get sick, and even less go to the hospital, and EVEN LESS eventually die... "cases" wouldn't be a good measure of how we're fighting the disease. In fact, it would give a false narrative that we are losing the battle... but then again, that's probably the point of using "cases" as a measure.

Another indicator is hospitalizations. We have recent spikes in FL, TX, and AZ, but for the most part the country is still going down in this category as well. The focus on only the hotspots, though, would lead anyone to believe that we are in a huge backslide and impending doom is lurking around the corner. But again, I don't think that is an accident.

My biggest issue is that we have dealt with not only several other pandemics around the world, but other coronaviruses, yet the world is stymied by how to do anything positive to manage it. Everyone knew masks were effective, but the WHO said to not use them because people would stop washing their hands. Why would they take a sudden 180 on this preventative measure that has been effectively used by the Asian countries for decades? Why would they muddy the waters and not suggest people wear at least cloth masks from the get go? Gross negligence?

I know its convenient to blame this all on the Cheeto, but there were a lot of players twiddling their thumbs while this went down. The whole mask thing has been going on for about 6 weeks now, yet its only within the last week or two that any governor has mandated them. If Inslee is really the savior he thinks he is, why not make them mandatory 6 weeks ago? I not saying they don't help, I'm saying our leaders are dumb.

Sorry for the stream of consciousness. I could have went on, had to stop myself.

 

[dgibbons]

And today the CDC says the antibody tests show the virus has spread 10x over the diagnostic test numbers.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

And today the CDC says the antibody tests show the virus has spread 10x over the diagnostic test numbers.

To be clear, the infection rate then goes through the roof, but then the hospitalization/ mortality rate goes through the basement, correct?

 

[dgibbons]

To be clear, the infection rate then goes through the roof, but then the hospitalization/ mortality rate goes through the basement, correct?

That’s how the math is currently being computed.

 

[95coug]

To be clear, the infection rate then goes through the roof, but then the hospitalization/ mortality rate goes through the basement, correct?

Which is exactly what sensible people were saying from the beginning. The early media reports of a 5-7% mortality rate were completely ridiculous - and were based on the number of deaths per testing-confirmed case...at a time when only the very sick could get a test. They used that number to make COVID look like the 21st century version of the Black Death, got everyone stirred up and overreacting.

Anyone with any sense could see through the math, and knew there were a lot more cases than were being confirmed. That automatically meant the fatality rate was going to be lower. Since they're now admitting that infection rates are at least 10x what has been reported, that means the mortality rate is one-tenth what was reported. Suddenly 5-7% is 0.5-0.7% - at most. This puts it somewhere in the realm of the Asian flu of 1957 and the related Hong Kong flu of 1968.

Bottom line is that yes, it's a serious illness. Yes, it kills people. Yes, we need to come up with a way to control it. But no, there was never a reason to get everyone in a panic over it, and there was no need to shut down the whole country.

 

[Coug1990]

Which is exactly what sensible people were saying from the beginning. The early media reports of a 5-7% mortality rate were completely ridiculous - and were based on the number of deaths per testing-confirmed case...at a time when only the very sick could get a test. They used that number to make COVID look like the 21st century version of the Black Death, got everyone stirred up and overreacting.

Anyone with any sense could see through the math, and knew there were a lot more cases than were being confirmed. That automatically meant the fatality rate was going to be lower. Since they're now admitting that infection rates are at least 10x what has been reported, that means the mortality rate is one-tenth what was reported. Suddenly 5-7% is 0.5-0.7% - at most. This puts it somewhere in the realm of the Asian flu of 1957 and the related Hong Kong flu of 1968.

Bottom line is that yes, it's a serious illness. Yes, it kills people. Yes, we need to come up with a way to control it. But no, there was never a reason to get everyone in a panic over it, and there was no need to shut down the whole country.

There is a fail in your logic. First, we didn't shut down the entire country. We have 50 states with their own plans, and within that, we have counties and cities that are also doing their own thing.

But, the biggest fail is you are comparing statistics from when we didn't do much in the 50's and 60's to something where we have done something and saying the results would have been the same.

 

[95coug]

There is a fail in your logic. First, we didn't shut down the entire country. We have 50 states with their own plans, and within that, we have counties and cities that are also doing their own thing.

But, the biggest fail is you are comparing statistics from when we didn't do much in the 50's and 60's to something where we have done something and saying the results would have been the same.

OK, so my statement had some hyperbole. The bottom line is that decision makers bought the 5-7% mortality story wholesale and reacted to it, even though it was never going to be accurate. But now that more realistic numbers have emerged, they are still acting based on that original overreaction.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Today the WSJ did a story on 26 mortality studies that, taken as a whole, suggest a 2/3 of 1% overall mortality rate. I've been using 1/2 of 1% for talking purposes. Given that we know more or less the number of deaths (which we have to fudge up a bit for the deaths not diagnosed as covid related), the mortality rate computes that at this point roughly 10% or a bit more of the US population has had the disease. That is rough order of magnitude 10x what we've confirmed by testing, mostly because we are a 3rd world country when it comes to testing. And without testing, we don't have effective contact tracing. I've been pointing all the above out for months. Sweden was cited at the top of this thread. Sweden has done a lot wrong, but what they have done right is testing and contact tracing.

 

[doggiedoo]

OK, so my statement had some hyperbole. The bottom line is that decision makers bought the 5-7% mortality story wholesale and reacted to it, even though it was never going to be accurate. But now that more realistic numbers have emerged, they are still acting based on that original overreaction.

5 -7%? Never heard anybody credible claim those numbers.

 

[Coug90]

5 -7%? Never heard anybody credible claim those numbers.

TBD. A. Mortality rates you’re considering are dead/infected vs dead/fully recovered. B. Long term impacts of the disease are largely unknown and not accurately measurable at this point but some studies are pointing to potential mid/long term health complications.

put it another way...if they’d taken HIV during the first 6 months of studying the disease and given us mortality rates, they’d have been a little off.

Nobody knows the long term effects of this. Could be nothing, could be catastrophic. Certainly nobody here has the expertise to question anyone else’s credibility.

 

[Cougsocal]

I will say that the numbers I looked at a couple of weeks ago for Sweden weren't a shining beacon on "yes, this is how we do it", at least as far as infection rate and mortality rate. They were good/ fine, but not a shining beacon.

THAT BEING SAID, we have every news outlet parroting "cases" as the gold standard of how we should be measuring... fck, I don't even know what. Measuring the impact? The potential impact? I mean, layman's logic would dictate that if 100 people are positive "cases", but out of 100 of them only 1 or even 0 get symptoms or get sick, and even less go to the hospital, and EVEN LESS eventually die... "cases" wouldn't be a good measure of how we're fighting the disease. In fact, it would give a false narrative that we are losing the battle... but then again, that's probably the point of using "cases" as a measure.

Another indicator is hospitalizations. We have recent spikes in FL, TX, and AZ, but for the most part the country is still going down in this category as well. The focus on only the hotspots, though, would lead anyone to believe that we are in a huge backslide and impending doom is lurking around the corner. But again, I don't think that is an accident.

My biggest issue is that we have dealt with not only several other pandemics around the world, but other coronaviruses, yet the world is stymied by how to do anything positive to manage it. Everyone knew masks were effective, but the WHO said to not use them because people would stop washing their hands. Why would they take a sudden 180 on this preventative measure that has been effectively used by the Asian countries for decades? Why would they muddy the waters and not suggest people wear at least cloth masks from the get go? Gross negligence?

I know its convenient to blame this all on the Cheeto, but there were a lot of players twiddling their thumbs while this went down. The whole mask thing has been going on for about 6 weeks now, yet its only within the last week or two that any governor has mandated them. If Inslee is really the savior he thinks he is, why not make them mandatory 6 weeks ago? I not saying they don't help, I'm saying our leaders are dumb.

Sorry for the stream of consciousness. I could have went on, had to stop myself.

Sweden, because of their social distancing "lite" decision is a likely crystal ball in the our future, as the we clearly fall into the social distancing "mismanaged" category. Sweden may have been seen as a "shining example" by the right, politically, but they made their decisions based on what their doctors and scientists were predicting, not what some alt-right blogger on twitter had to say. Let's not forget that.

Who got it right, who got it wrong. won't be known for some time. What will happen in Denmark a current "winner," long term? Absent a vaccine, will they avoid the effects of Covid-19 by simply waiting it out, effectively . Most doctors say no, but who the hell knows.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

A few thoughts. First, I think most of us knew that the mortality rate was going to drop but the worry was that because of the Ro of the virus combined with it being a new virus meant that we could be looking at a death total over 1 million. All bullsh!t aside.........that's still a very possible outcome over the next 18 months although it appears less likely right now. If we average 750 deaths per day for the next six months, we would have over 281,000 dead. A spike during the actual "flu season" could see our death rates jump up to 2,500 deaths per day of the peak three months back. We ain't out of the woods yet and we don't know when the ride is going to be over.

I still remember when this thing started, people saying that with only a few hundred dead people, COVID was laughed off as "libtard" hysteria and that it wouldn't amount to anything more than the regular Influenza. That's obviously not true and things have been worse than any normal flu season by orders of magnitude. So, everyone who is trying to diminish the impact of this disease should reflect back on what they were saying in February and realize that they didn't have a clue then.....and likely don't have a clue now.

Next, one of my friends has a parent who was hit by coronavirus in May. He didn't know that he had it but was sick for two weeks with a mild temperature and a lot of general aches and pains. He thought he had a kidney infection. After testing, it turned out that he had the virus. In a separate checkup, he now has a arterial valve stenosis that wasn't present during a cancer checkup that was performed in February. Maybe it's coincidental, maybe it's not, but a large of number of people are having cardiac issues after having COVID. Pretending that this virus doesn't often produce significant side effects is ignorant.

All that said, every time we walk out the door, we are taking calculated risks. Riding in cars, flying in planes, riding on trains, walking, eating, having sex and exercising are all done with the knowledge that taking part in them might result in our death or injury. Where I live, suicides are up significantly and have killed more people than the coronavirus this year. Every year, millions of Americans will die of something. At the most basic level.....none of us get out alive. A lot of decisions have been made with the good intent of saving lives, but at a cost that exceeds the lives saved. As the data set grows, it is showing that many of the worst assumptions were far more dire than the reality. At some point, we need to quit pretending like it isn't dangerous but act with the understanding that everything in life involves risk and we can't shut everything down out of fear of tort law and liability. We need to take basic precautions but we need to quit pretending that we can save every life. Of course, the problem with that is that nobody is comfortable with saying "get over it" when people die....and that's perfectly understandable.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

A few thoughts. First, I think most of us knew that the mortality rate was going to drop but the worry was that because of the Ro of the virus combined with it being a new virus meant that we could be looking at a death total over 1 million. All bullsh!t aside.........that's still a very possible outcome over the next 18 months although it appears less likely right now. If we average 750 deaths per day for the next six months, we would have over 281,000 dead. A spike during the actual "flu season" could see our death rates jump up to 2,500 deaths per day of the peak three months back. We ain't out of the woods yet and we don't know when the ride is going to be over.

I still remember when this thing started, people saying that with only a few hundred dead people, COVID was laughed off as "libtard" hysteria and that it wouldn't amount to anything more than the regular Influenza. That's obviously not true and things have been worse than any normal flu season by orders of magnitude. So, everyone who is trying to diminish the impact of this disease should reflect back on what they were saying in February and realize that they didn't have a clue then.....and likely don't have a clue now.

Next, one of my friends has a parent who was hit by coronavirus in May. He didn't know that he had it but was sick for two weeks with a mild temperature and a lot of general aches and pains. He thought he had a kidney infection. After testing, it turned out that he had the virus. In a separate checkup, he now has a arterial valve stenosis that wasn't present during a cancer checkup that was performed in February. Maybe it's coincidental, maybe it's not, but a large of number of people are having cardiac issues after having COVID. Pretending that this virus doesn't often produce significant side effects is ignorant.

All that said, every time we walk out the door, we are taking calculated risks. Riding in cars, flying in planes, riding on trains, walking, eating, having sex and exercising are all done with the knowledge that taking part in them might result in our death or injury. Where I live, suicides are up significantly and have killed more people than the coronavirus this year. Every year, millions of Americans will die of something. At the most basic level.....none of us get out alive. A lot of decisions have been made with the good intent of saving lives, but at a cost that exceeds the lives saved. As the data set grows, it is showing that many of the worst assumptions were far more dire than the reality. At some point, we need to quit pretending like it isn't dangerous but act with the understanding that everything in life involves risk and we can't shut everything down out of fear of tort law and liability. We need to take basic precautions but we need to quit pretending that we can save every life. Of course, the problem with that is that nobody is comfortable with saying "get over it" when people die....and that's perfectly understandable.

Again, people have been sold a bill of goods that was criminally false from the start - that we could control, "beat", or otherwise mitigate this virus in ways that are completely and wholly unrealistic.

Every dem couldnt wait to point a finger at Trump and accuse him of not doing enough, painting an illusion that more could be done. Trump has the hubris to tell people its no biggie and we've got this. The media reports every "case" like it actually means anything, keeping the public fearful and looking for salvation that isnt coming. The vile menage a trois between the left, right, and media is enough to make me puke; put the lot of them on a spaceship and send it directly into the Sun.

People will die. If you know 100 people, theres a 50/50 chance one of them will be dead from covid before 2021 is over. 400 facebook friends? 2 of them will die. Might be someone close, might not. Those are the cold, hard facts and every American needs to suck it up and deal with it instead of burying their head in the sand and waiting for Joe Biden to come save them. We are a nation of codependancy who, after 4 month, still havent realized that theres no having hover-mommy or hover-daddy come bail them out of this shitty situation. And the other truth is, as bad as 500000 people dead looks and sounds, it could be worse. It could be 1918 bad. Heaven forbid.

 

[doggiedoo]

There’s a spaceship with 330 Million seats?

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Not sure how many of you saw this:

Widely used CDC Coronovirus test results: 30% false positive and 20% false negative, confirms Conn. pathologist in peer-reviewed report.

The retesting was done on 20 samples, so I'm not sure if this is statistically relevant due to the small N, but it is interesting information. That being said, don't forget that there are several private companies and local labs doing tests that AREN'T the CDC ones.

If only Trump would have told them to make a better test...

 

[doggiedoo]

Makes the tests almost worthless.

Poor picked on Trump: the leftist MSM is so unfair despite the fact that he has performed perfectly and gets no credit for having the best covid rates in the world. I can’t for the life of me fathom why anyone would be critical of the man in charge when there are so many others to point fingers at.

 

[425cougfan]

Are other countries using more effective tests that would be available on a broad scale for testing in the U.S.? (Serious question, not a political one.)

 

[froropmkr72]

Are other countries using more effective tests that would be available on a broad scale for testing in the U.S.? (Serious question, not a political one.)

I wonder if a broader test would have different results. Why couldn't they of began testing the kits used in South Korea or Germany back in March? Then mass produce the more accurate kit?

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

I wonder if a broader test would have different results. Why couldn't they of began testing the kits used in South Korea or Germany back in March? Then mass produce the more accurate kit?

I posted this a few months ago:

The US protocol is that the CDC runs the show and only the CDC. Other nations enlisted private enterprise to get there best kit as fast as possible, but not us: tens of labs across the country sat on their hands waiting for the CDC to give them the test. And they waited. And waited. Until a couple of rogue counties/States enlisted local labs to do their testing. To my knowledge, we still don't have a standardized test that everyone is using.

 

[froropmkr72]

I posted this a few months ago:

The US protocol is that the CDC runs the show and only the CDC. Other nations enlisted private enterprise to get there best kit as fast as possible, but not us: tens of labs across the country sat on their hands waiting for the CDC to give them the test. And they waited. And waited. Until a couple of rogue counties/States enlisted local lands to do their testing. To my knowledge, we still don't have a standardized test that everyone is using.

Said the same thing after the screw up ("failure" as Fauci put it) of the original tests. Have any tests proven to be more reliable than the South Korean test? It's not like it's China...they are our ally. Good enough is good enough until something better (proven) comes along. It might of saved some time and sped up the process. So many "protocols" could of been abandoned in order to save lives and begin testing. Didn't the University of Nebraska Omaha develop a great test?