NY 6 and CFP - This seems pretty simple to me.

[Loyal Coug]

If the CFP rankings put us at #12 or higher, we are set for a NY6, as all the teams affecting us are done playing as well (3 loss teams). Texas losing will provide a cushion. No reason anyone should jump over us at that point.

If, per the Coaches and AP poll, we are tied for 12th or at 13, our only hope is for Texas to lose (making our SOS weaker BTW), and we can hope that another 3 loss team doesn't jump us. UCF is in no matter if they win or lose as best Group of 5 team.

Mutts don't matter. If they win they are in the Rose Bowl. If they lose, their spot is replaced by Utah.

Correct?

Edit: Wait - if Northwestern beats OSU, then we are really F-ed.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

If the CFP rankings put us at #12 or higher, we are set for a NY6, as all the teams affecting us are done playing as well (3 loss teams). Texas losing will provide a cushion. No reason anyone should jump over us at that point.

If, per the Coaches and AP poll, we are tied for 12th or at 13, our only hope is for Texas to lose (making our SOS weaker BTW), and we can hope that another 3 loss team doesn't jump us. UCF is in no matter if they win or lose as best Group of 5 team.

Mutts don't matter. If they win they are in the Rose Bowl. If they lose, their spot is replaced by Utah.

Correct?

Pretty much sums it up. But the current polls have no bearing. We’ll be 10 or 11 in the CFP. We’re a lock. Tuesday will confirm it. BTW, UW should be 12 or 11. This way they can bounce them out of the top 12 if they lose to Utah. If they place UW at 9 or 10, it would be very hard to bounce them out based on a championship game..... they don’t want 3 PAC 12 teams in NY6 games. Just a thought.

 

[Coug-Vandal]

If the CFP rankings put us at #12 or higher, we are set for a NY6, as all the teams affecting us are done playing as well (3 loss teams). Texas losing will provide a cushion. No reason anyone should jump over us at that point.

If, per the Coaches and AP poll, we are tied for 12th or at 13, our only hope is for Texas to lose (making our SOS weaker BTW), and we can hope that another 3 loss team doesn't jump us. UCF is in no matter if they win or lose as best Group of 5 team.

Couldn't Boise St still replace UCF as the best non power five team if BSU beats Fresno and UCF loses to Memphis?

 

[dgibbons]

If the CFP rankings put us at #12 or higher, we are set for a NY6, as all the teams affecting us are done playing as well (3 loss teams). Texas losing will provide a cushion. No reason anyone should jump over us at that point.

If, per the Coaches and AP poll, we are tied for 12th or at 13, our only hope is for Texas to lose (making our SOS weaker BTW), and we can hope that another 3 loss team doesn't jump us. UCF is in no matter if they win or lose as best Group of 5 team.

Mutts don't matter. If they win they are in the Rose Bowl. If they lose, their spot is replaced by Utah.

Correct?

Edit: Wait - if Northwestern beats OSU, then we are really F-ed.

We want the higher ranked teams to win the championship games. We need separation in the potential pool of at-large teams.

 

[CougPatrol]

At this point, I’m more interested in the matchup than the bowl game. It looks like we’re getting Fiesta, Alamo, or Peach. Good enough for me.

 

[dgibbons]

At this point, I’m more interested in the matchup than the bowl game. It looks like we’re getting Fiesta, Alamo, or Peach. Good enough for me.

For those in the Pacific NW, the Fiesta is cheaper and easier to get to.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

For those in the Pacific NW, the Fiesta is cheaper and easier to get to.

It’s also a much higher payout. $17MM vs $7MM.

 

[Coug90]

Pretty much sums it up. But the current polls have no bearing. We’ll be 10 or 11 in the CFP. We’re a lock. Tuesday will confirm it. BTW, UW should be 12 or 11. This way they can bounce them out of the top 12 if they lose to Utah. If they place UW at 9 or 10, it would be very hard to bounce them out based on a championship game..... they don’t want 3 PAC 12 teams in NY6 games. Just a thought.

How would 3 pac 12 teams get in? Loser of UW/Utah is Alamo bound at best. That assumes we get into a NY6. The team losing that game w 4 losses will be ranked in the 15-20 range.

 

[ShockandAweWSU]

I've got a good feeling about Fiesta or Peach. You would think a team out west would get the nod for the Fiesta. Tuesday will tell us a lot.

 

[CougPatrol]

For those in the Pacific NW, the Fiesta is cheaper and easier to get to.

Oh yea, I get that. I’m just saying as a booster that I don’t personally care what bowl we go to. All 3 would be fantastic, and this season was a resounding success.

I downgraded my preseason prediction from 8-4 where I had us heading into Fall camp, to 6-6 after Fall due to concerns on the DL and at QB. Whoops.

Fiesta would be great. Peach would be awesome too. That’s a big bowl game played in the best Stadium in the world, the site of this seasons super bowl. Players would be jacked.

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

How would 3 pac 12 teams get in? Loser of UW/Utah is Alamo bound at best. That assumes we get into a NY6. The team losing that game w 4 losses will be ranked in the 15-20 range.

If UW is ranked 10 in the coming up CFP, then they are in. The Committee has set a precedent of not punishing a team for a loss in a championship game. Bouncing from top 9/10 to 13 would be unprecidented. It’s precisely why I believe they’ll be ranked 12, behind WSU Tuesday.

 

[Loyal Coug]

If UW is ranked 10 in the coming up CFP, then they are in. The Committee has set a precedent of not punishing a team for a loss in a championship game. Bouncing from top 9/10 to 13 would be unprecidented. It’s precisely why I believe they’ll be ranked 12, behind WSU Tuesday.

Ok I will have to wait and see on this, but your notion seems nuts to me. So if Utah beats the mutts they BOTH get in, and another 3 loss team currently in the top 12 gets booted. In this case based on the AP LSU or Penn State.

And by your logic a 9-4 Texas team will also stay in the top 12 assuming that THEY lose?

 

[CrimsonDisciple]

Ok I will have to wait and see on this, but your notion seems nuts to me. So if Utah beats the mutts they BOTH get in, and another 3 loss team currently in the top 12 gets booted. In this case based on the AP LSU or Penn State.

And by your logic a 9-4 Texas team will also stay in the top 12 assuming that THEY lose?

We’ll see where Texas comes in Tuesday. Utah will never be top 12, so no one will be booted for them. Utah would get the autobid to the Rosebowl with a win. The only way the committee can protect against a 3 team PAC 12 NY6, is to place UW at 12.

 

[Loyal Coug]

We’ll see where Texas comes in Tuesday. Utah will never be top 12, so no one will be booted for them. Utah would get the autobid to the Rosebowl with a win. The only way the committee can protect against a 3 team PAC 12 NY6, is to place UW at 12.

OK, I've had a few beers, but I'm not drunk. Yet. If Utah and Northwestern win next week, they both get into NY6 games as league champs. That would mean that 2 teams that are in the top 12 on Tuesday do not make it into the NY6. How can you say that no one will get "booted" if Utah wins? Someone has to. I can count to 12, even though I only have 10 fingers. As opposed to some of our WW pals.....

Oh and speaking of getting drunk, the F-ing game is being replayed on both Root and the Pac-12 network right now! Ahhhhgggghh!

 

[Glad Cougar]

Once again, the Oregonian is clueless. In an article about UO bowl possibilities, they write:

That may not be the most significant factor though, as the Pac-12 has seven bowl eligible teams to fill seven bowl tie-ins and Washington State is actually the key to deciding where Oregon, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State end up playing.


The winner of the Pac-12 Championship Game between Washington and Utah will go to the Rose Bowl and the loser is almost definitely headed to the Alamo Bowl. If the Cougars receive an at-large bid to a New Year's Six game, most likely the Fiesta Bowl, then the Pac-12's remaining four bowl eligible teams would be available to play in the Holiday Bowl, Redbox Bowl, Sun Bowl, Cheeze-It Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl....

I can't see any way that a 4-loss Utah team, missing key players, gets the Alamo bid over WSU and it's 2 losses & best record in the conference. Do these guys just assume the championship game loser gets the 2nd best bowl? If the Cougars are good enough to be considered for the Fiesta Bowl, why wouldn't they get the Alamo bid bowl if they miss out in Phoenix?

Glad Cougar

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Once again, the Oregonian is clueless. In an article about UO bowl possibilities, they write:

That may not be the most significant factor though, as the Pac-12 has seven bowl eligible teams to fill seven bowl tie-ins and Washington State is actually the key to deciding where Oregon, Stanford, Cal and Arizona State end up playing.


The winner of the Pac-12 Championship Game between Washington and Utah will go to the Rose Bowl and the loser is almost definitely headed to the Alamo Bowl. If the Cougars receive an at-large bid to a New Year's Six game, most likely the Fiesta Bowl, then the Pac-12's remaining four bowl eligible teams would be available to play in the Holiday Bowl, Redbox Bowl, Sun Bowl, Cheeze-It Bowl and Las Vegas Bowl....

I can't see any way that a 4-loss Utah team, missing key players, gets the Alamo bid over WSU and it's 2 losses & best record in the conference. Do these guys just assume the championship game loser gets the 2nd best bowl? If the Cougars are good enough to be considered for the Fiesta Bowl, why wouldn't they get the Alamo bid bowl if they miss out in Phoenix?

Glad Cougar

I'm going to assume that they are assuming that WSU makes an NY6 game?

 

[95coug]

This requires a lot of speculation, but I expect the CFP this week will look like this:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. UCF
9. Florida

10-14 will be us, LSU, UW, Texas, and Penn State, but I'm not sure in what order. I expect LSU and Florida will get the benefit of the SEC bias, so I don't expect to be higher than 12. Only question is how much LSU gets dinged for losing - I think Florida goes ahead of us.

Big problem is that of all the teams ahead of us, there's pretty much nobody that misses an NY6 berth for losing. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Texas, UCF, and UW will all play a conference championship. Most of them will keep a NY6 berth even with a loss. UCF is in no matter what, and if UW loses Utah takes their spot. Texas is the only one that could be knocked out with a loss...and that's only if they are #11-12 (probably).

If we make the NY6, I don't see it being WSU-UCF. None of the bowls are going to pick two small market teams if they have an option. Michigan, LSU, maybe Florida seem more likely.

If we fall short of the NY6 - which I think is reasonably likely - the Alamo gets the first pick, and they have to take the team with the best conference record, or any team within 1 loss of them. So the only teams that could get picked over us are UW (with a loss to Utah), Utah, and maybe Stanford (if they beat Cal). So the lowest we can possibly fall is the Redbox bowl. If Cal beats Stanford, we can only go as low as the Holiday. I think we've got some points in our favor for the Alamo...especially assuming a UW win in the Pac-12 game. I don't see them taking either Utah or Stanford over us. If it's a choice between us and UW (with a Utah win)...then maybe we fall.

Either way, we all need to be rooting for Oklahoma and Cal this weekend. A Texas loss increases our odds of a NY6 game. A Stanford loss is insurance, and keeps us out of the Redbox bowl.