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Oregon State

Flatlandcoug

Hall Of Fame
Aug 14, 2007
10,033
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Wichita, Kansas
I knew things were bad at OSU, but I didn't realize that they were living the equivalent to our days of innocence. Found this picture posted on facebook. OSU is 9-39 in their past four years.....Doh! Of course, poor KU makes our bad years seem good.
(edit: the picture is wrong....9 wins instead of 8)....still.....

46784632_10156830651796575_96356680752693248_n.jpg
 
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5th from the bottom Purdue smacked #3 Ohio St this year.

Funny that 2 of our losses are to FCS opponents during that span. The 2015 loss to PSU kept us from a 10 win season, and a loss to Eastern in 2016 kept us from 9 wins that year. Take those crap losses out of the equation and we are tied with Penn St, UW and Stanford at #7.

Utah at 35-16, #15 is pretty darn good too.
 
Take out teams with 8 conference games and we're #8 instead of #11

Take out the B1G which typically has 1 good team per division and where the bottom half is DREGS (ie 3 OOC duds and 5 guaranteed conference wins) and we're Top 5. Really impressive what Stanford, UW, and dare I say Oklahoma have done as well.
 
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Nice for us, but here's the other thing I see:

6 Pac-12 teams that are .500 or below for the last 4 years. Half of the conference.

The Big Ten and ACC also have 6 teams in that category, but both of those conferences have 14 teams. The SEC (14 teams) has 4. The Big 12 has 4.

The percentage doesn't look great for us, but the Big Ten are the real bottom feeders. 4 of their teams have lost more than 30 games.
 
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Nice for us, but here's the other thing I see:

6 Pac-12 teams that are .500 or below for the last 4 years. Half of the conference.

The Big Ten and ACC also have 6 teams in that category, but both of those conferences have 14 teams. The SEC (14 teams) has 4. The Big 12 has 4.

The percentage doesn't look great for us, but the Big Ten are the real bottom feeders. 4 of their teams have lost more than 30 games.

Wow.....I totally missed that 4 of the bottom feeders were from the B1G. That's bad stuff right there.
 
I knew things were bad at OSU, but I didn't realize that they were living the equivalent to our days of innocence. Found this picture posted on facebook. OSU is 9-39 in their past four years.....Doh! Of course, poor KU makes our bad years seem good.
(edit: the picture is wrong....9 wins instead of 8)....still.....

46784632_10156830651796575_96356680752693248_n.jpg

At least most of OSU's losses look like actual football scores.
 
Shaw's win totals year by year; 11, 12, 11, 8, 12, 10, 9, 7 & counting. Stanford will go bowling next year.

Watch what happens. I am telling you the are in quite a lot of trouble.

Go look at this two deep and look at who and how many are graduating.

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/stanford/91901

Stanford won 7 games with the experienced roster they have this year...now take away the experience.

It does not look good for the Cardinal next year.

The are playing at UCF/Notre Dame/Northwestern (which has beaten them before when they were better)

They could and probably will go 0-3 in OOC.

They play in Pullman 0-4
They play Oregon (more than likely going to get revenge) and UW - 0-5/0-6

That is six losses right there. Just 1 more and No Bowl.

They play @USC
Cal
UCLA
Oregon State
Colorado
Arizona

I am telling you right now. Stanford won’t go bowling next year and it will be one of the big story lines in the Pac 12

Looking at Stanford’s last 3 years they are tending down. Not up, and with the roster turnover this year they are going on a much faster decline.

I will be shocked if they win more than 7 games. I will be surprised if they win 6. It will not surprise met at all if they win just 5
 
At least most of OSU's losses look like actual football scores.

We all know that it will be difficult for anyone to match the dream season 10 years ago. Still, we know how those poor bastards feel. On Tron's comments about Stanford trending down.....agree 100%. I think Shaw missed on his opportunity for a big payday a couple years back. Dude should have bailed for the NFL when he could. I'm impressed that Shaw has done as well as he has, but it just feels like the life is slowly bleeding out of their program. Still, if they can beat Cal and win their bowl game.....9 wins again. Just gotta wonder if the end is nigh.
 
We all know that it will be difficult for anyone to match the dream season 10 years ago. Still, we know how those poor bastards feel. On Tron's comments about Stanford trending down.....agree 100%. I think Shaw missed on his opportunity for a big payday a couple years back. Dude should have bailed for the NFL when he could. I'm impressed that Shaw has done as well as he has, but it just feels like the life is slowly bleeding out of their program. Still, if they can beat Cal and win their bowl game.....9 wins again. Just gotta wonder if the end is nigh.
Stanford seems like Shaw's dream job.
 
Watch what happens. I am telling you the are in quite a lot of trouble.

Go look at this two deep and look at who and how many are graduating.

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/stanford/91901

Stanford won 7 games with the experienced roster they have this year...now take away the experience.

It does not look good for the Cardinal next year.

The are playing at UCF/Notre Dame/Northwestern (which has beaten them before when they were better)

They could and probably will go 0-3 in OOC.

They play in Pullman 0-4
They play Oregon (more than likely going to get revenge) and UW - 0-5/0-6

That is six losses right there. Just 1 more and No Bowl.

They play @USC
Cal
UCLA
Oregon State
Colorado
Arizona

I am telling you right now. Stanford won’t go bowling next year and it will be one of the big story lines in the Pac 12

Looking at Stanford’s last 3 years they are tending down. Not up, and with the roster turnover this year they are going on a much faster decline.

I will be shocked if they win more than 7 games. I will be surprised if they win 6. It will not surprise met at all if they win just 5
They are kinda like we usually are though with Leach they do a good job of keeping guys in the program and reloading with upperclassmen. They will be fine probably win 7-8.
 
I think it is pretty clear that Stanford has missed on recruits more because their evaluation was faulty than because they could not compete for some of the mis-rated 4 star candidates. I also frankly wonder how much effort Shaw is putting in these days...in his early years he was very hands on, and monitored what his assistants were (and were not) doing. Since the recruiting effort has pretty clearly hit some difficulties, it makes me wonder how good his recruiting coordinator is...and how much Shaw is personally involved. It is easy to become tired. Maybe his effort level has diminished.
 
I think it is pretty clear that Stanford has missed on recruits more because their evaluation was faulty than because they could not compete for some of the mis-rated 4 star candidates. I also frankly wonder how much effort Shaw is putting in these days...in his early years he was very hands on, and monitored what his assistants were (and were not) doing. Since the recruiting effort has pretty clearly hit some difficulties, it makes me wonder how good his recruiting coordinator is...and how much Shaw is personally involved. It is easy to become tired. Maybe his effort level has diminished.

Were they rated 5.7 by Rivals? :)
 
Oh definitely. Stanford is losing 21 of 44 players in the two deep. I will be surprised if they go bowling next year.
I only count 18 seniors on the offense/defense 2-deep. 21 counts the two punters and the H-back.

Of the 18 senior position players (10 O, 8 D), only 12 are starters, and one of those is the fullback. 7 on offense, 5 on D. They lose 3/5 on the OL and both ILBs, those are the units that are hardest hit.

They have 11 sophomores on the 2-deep this season, 7 of those on defense. Those sophomores go along with 13 juniors (7 O, 6 D) and 2 freshmen (1 O, 1 D) on the 2-deep.

Altogether, it looks like they should have some decent experience coming back. An argument could be made that this year might be their down year, with so many sophomores on the field. Leadership is always a question mark, but Costello comes back on offense. They'll have to make some changes on the OL and with the receivers (5 of the 10 receivers on the roster are seniors). Overall, I'm not convinced they'll be significantly better or worse than this year. D should be OK, the question is how well the O can backfill.

Incidentally, we lose 12 from the 2-deep. 5 on O, 7 on D. I'd say based on that that we look really good for next season, but 2 of those 12 are Minshew and Pelluer, so we have big question marks regarding leadership on both sides of the ball.
 
It's incredibly impressive what Leach has done.

After next season, I believe we will be above Furd.

Yes, but let's keep a perspective. We got Rico'd in the '84 AC! Oh, wait... . No, it was Rypien's 2nd-half picks and the UW OC's astute decision to ram the ball down 225-pound nose guard Brent White's throat to seal the mutts' Orange Bowl trip (yes, Walden's recruiting left us with only a 225-pound NG).
 
We all know that it will be difficult for anyone to match the dream season 10 years ago. Still, we know how those poor bastards feel. On Tron's comments about Stanford trending down.....agree 100%. I think Shaw missed on his opportunity for a big payday a couple years back. Dude should have bailed for the NFL when he could. I'm impressed that Shaw has done as well as he has, but it just feels like the life is slowly bleeding out of their program. Still, if they can beat Cal and win their bowl game.....9 wins again. Just gotta wonder if the end is nigh.

When Shaw signed OLM Walker Little and Foster Sarell a few years ago, he got two of the top 10 high school o-linemen in the nation, and Nate Herbig was somewhat touted as well. I believe Sarell was hurt this season, but as juniors, he and Little should assert themselves in 2019. Herbig will be a senior. Stanford will likely continue to compete for the Pac-12 North. This might have been a down year, so the ShawSmirk Redemption Cometh?
 
When Shaw signed OLM Walker Little and Foster Sarell a few years ago, he got two of the top 10 high school o-linemen in the nation, and Nate Herbig was somewhat touted as well. I believe Sarell was hurt this season, but as juniors, he and Little should assert themselves in 2019. Herbig will be a senior. Stanford will likely continue to compete for the Pac-12 North. This might have been a down year, so the ShawSmirk Redemption Cometh?

Well, Shaw has kept them relevant for a while, so it probably is foolish to write him off just yet. Still, it does feel like they are ready to drop.
 
Well, Shaw has kept them relevant for a while, so it probably is foolish to write him off just yet. Still, it does feel like they are ready to drop.

I wouldn't mind. If they drop, and the UW drops after losing Browning, Gaskin, and others, and Herbert leaves Oregon early, we just might be champing at the bit again for the Pac-12 North. I kind of like the idea of another 10/11-win season.
 
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Nice for us, but here's the other thing I see:

6 Pac-12 teams that are .500 or below for the last 4 years. Half of the conference.

The Big Ten and ACC also have 6 teams in that category, but both of those conferences have 14 teams. The SEC (14 teams) has 4. The Big 12 has 4.

The percentage doesn't look great for us, but the Big Ten are the real bottom feeders. 4 of their teams have lost more than 30 games.

You only have to beat 4 patsies and 2 conference game to go bowling in that league. You can go 2-6 in conference every year in that league and never miss a bowl
 
Watch what happens. I am telling you the are in quite a lot of trouble.

Go look at this two deep and look at who and how many are graduating.

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/stanford/91901

Stanford won 7 games with the experienced roster they have this year...now take away the experience.

It does not look good for the Cardinal next year.

The are playing at UCF/Notre Dame/Northwestern (which has beaten them before when they were better)

They could and probably will go 0-3 in OOC.

They play in Pullman 0-4
They play Oregon (more than likely going to get revenge) and UW - 0-5/0-6

That is six losses right there. Just 1 more and No Bowl.

They play @USC
Cal
UCLA
Oregon State
Colorado
Arizona

I am telling you right now. Stanford won’t go bowling next year and it will be one of the big story lines in the Pac 12

Looking at Stanford’s last 3 years they are tending down. Not up, and with the roster turnover this year they are going on a much faster decline.

I will be shocked if they win more than 7 games. I will be surprised if they win 6. It will not surprise met at all if they win just 5

I've heard this song about Stanford before. I'll believe it when I see it.
 
Oregon State- just for fun I went and checked their commit list. No High school OL commits and no qb yet. That’s kind of scary. Yikes !!!
 
I only count 18 seniors on the offense/defense 2-deep. 21 counts the two punters and the H-back.

Of the 18 senior position players (10 O, 8 D), only 12 are starters, and one of those is the fullback. 7 on offense, 5 on D. They lose 3/5 on the OL and both ILBs, those are the units that are hardest hit.

They have 11 sophomores on the 2-deep this season, 7 of those on defense. Those sophomores go along with 13 juniors (7 O, 6 D) and 2 freshmen (1 O, 1 D) on the 2-deep.

Altogether, it looks like they should have some decent experience coming back. An argument could be made that this year might be their down year, with so many sophomores on the field. Leadership is always a question mark, but Costello comes back on offense. They'll have to make some changes on the OL and with the receivers (5 of the 10 receivers on the roster are seniors). Overall, I'm not convinced they'll be significantly better or worse than this year. D should be OK, the question is how well the O can backfill.

Incidentally, we lose 12 from the 2-deep. 5 on O, 7 on D. I'd say based on that that we look really good for next season, but 2 of those 12 are Minshew and Pelluer, so we have big question marks regarding leadership on both sides of the ball.

I've heard this song about Stanford before. I'll believe it when I see it.


Get ready to see it.

Of the receivers coming back next year none of them had more than 11 catches for the season.

Out of the top 8 receivers for Stanford the #1, #2, #7 (RB#1) and #8 (RB #2) all are gone.

The total number of receptions for the other 4? 91 total and 72 of them went to the TEs. The WRs that have experience have a total of 19 catches between them.

On the RB front they have Trevor Speights who only averaged 3.7 yards per carry coming back and that's behind this senior-laden offensive line.

Take that away and he isn't going to be running for much.

So with Stanford you have receivers that only caught the ball 20 times, and a running back with a 3.7 ypc average running behind a totally new offensive line? And you guys think that somehow Stanford will continue to win?

Defensively of their top 12 in tackles 8 are seniors. 8.
They are losing their #1 LB, #2 LB, #4 DB, #6 DB, #7 DB, #9 DB, #10 DL, #11 LB, #12 LB.
All gone.

Out of their top 7 players in scoring they are losing 4 of them, and the 3 remaining. 1 is the kicker. They are left with just 2 players in theiir top scorers next year TE Colby Parkinson, and TE Kaden Smith.

I don't care what team it is. You aren't going to win if you are replacing 3/5th of an offensive line, your two best running backs, your two best WRs and 8 out of your top 12 in tackles.

You just aren't.

Stanford has won 7 (maybe 8/ maybe 9 in a bowl game) this year with a heavily senior laden team. That they are about ot lose entirely.

I do not see them going bowling next year.

They started the season ranked #13 by the AP. They are not even ranked at all right now. That kind of illustrates how Stanford's expectations were WAY overstated this year.

They barely beat UCLA (49-42, and they barely beat Oregon 38-31) with a heavily Senior loaded team.

The fall of Shaw is coming next year.
 
I've been around long enough to never discount the possibility that teams/programs not expected to do well actually pull it together. Most "experts" predicted a tough season for WSU with no proven QB on the roster and huge questions on the defensive line. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Stanford actually do pretty well next year as several players who haven't done much yet step up and perform well.

Glad Cougar
 
Get ready to see it.

Of the receivers coming back next year none of them had more than 11 catches for the season.

Out of the top 8 receivers for Stanford the #1, #2, #7 (RB#1) and #8 (RB #2) all are gone.

The total number of receptions for the other 4? 91 total and 72 of them went to the TEs. The WRs that have experience have a total of 19 catches between them.

On the RB front they have Trevor Speights who only averaged 3.7 yards per carry coming back and that's behind this senior-laden offensive line.

Take that away and he isn't going to be running for much.

So with Stanford you have receivers that only caught the ball 20 times, and a running back with a 3.7 ypc average running behind a totally new offensive line? And you guys think that somehow Stanford will continue to win?

Defensively of their top 12 in tackles 8 are seniors. 8.
They are losing their #1 LB, #2 LB, #4 DB, #6 DB, #7 DB, #9 DB, #10 DL, #11 LB, #12 LB.
All gone.

Out of their top 7 players in scoring they are losing 4 of them, and the 3 remaining. 1 is the kicker. They are left with just 2 players in theiir top scorers next year TE Colby Parkinson, and TE Kaden Smith.

I don't care what team it is. You aren't going to win if you are replacing 3/5th of an offensive line, your two best running backs, your two best WRs and 8 out of your top 12 in tackles.

You just aren't.

Stanford has won 7 (maybe 8/ maybe 9 in a bowl game) this year with a heavily senior laden team. That they are about ot lose entirely.

I do not see them going bowling next year.

They started the season ranked #13 by the AP. They are not even ranked at all right now. That kind of illustrates how Stanford's expectations were WAY overstated this year.

They barely beat UCLA (49-42, and they barely beat Oregon 38-31) with a heavily Senior loaded team.

The fall of Shaw is coming next year.
I understand your logic, but...remind me where we were supposed to finish this year, after losing our top 2 receivers, our top 2 RBs, our top 2 QBs, etc?
 
For me, the two biggest unknowns in projecting how a team will do are:

- What do they have in the way of Thursday night & redshirt types? And,
- Which kids are developing ahead of schedule so that they might reasonably take a big step in the coming year?

Those are typically things that we Don't know. And they are often very important in how the team does in the coming year.
 
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