Pac-12, Mountain West ‘too far apart’ as negotiations over 2025 scheduling partnership break down

[Loyal Coug1]

Replying to myself here. Two (oops 5) quick takeways from the article (although I have many, including why no picture of Gloria :

• A source sez the Big-12 recently gave us a "hard no"
• Nice recap of the costs of poaching MW schools. A ridiculous scenario, money-wise, for us and them
• No to 9 MW schools dissolving the conference
• ACC is not going anywhere anytime soon, if ever
• And most importantly (since the Mighty Loyal has said the exact same thing in his infinite wisdom) the MW is "modeling ways to create minimum budget levels to elevate the bottom levels of the conference with the threat of expulsion if they don’t meet them." My foresight and brilliance sometimes blinds me

But keep it up, Cougs, and let us fall into oblivion. Funny that with all of our fantastic leaders (Teresa, Scott and Anne aka the 3 stooges) we have to hire a consultant to help us craft a 2025 schedule. F-ing really?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Replying to myself here. Two (oops 5) quick takeways from the article (although I have many, including why no picture of Gloria :

• A source sez the Big-12 recently gave us a "hard no"
• Nice recap of the costs of poaching MW schools. A ridiculous scenario, money-wise, for us and them
• No to 9 MW schools dissolving the conference
• ACC is not going anywhere anytime soon, if ever
• And most importantly (since the Mighty Loyal has said the exact same thing in his infinite wisdom) the MW is "modeling ways to create minimum budget levels to elevate the bottom levels of the conference with the threat of expulsion if they don’t meet them." My foresight and brilliance sometimes blinds me

But keep it up, Cougs, and let us fall into oblivion. Funny that with all of our fantastic leaders (Teresa, Scott and Anne aka the 3 stooges) we have to hire a consultant to help us craft a 2025 schedule. F-ing really?

I know that you hate the stress of not knowing what's going to happen, but the reality is that the deal that the MWC is willing to give us to join is ALWAYS going to be there. If it's not, that's because other teams are getting poached and at that point, it wouldn't matter if we were in the conference or not.

 

[Meister_Rebel]

The article said something that I thought was wrong. I thought the poach penalty (Withdrawal Fees) ended August 1, 2025 because they did not extend the scheduling agreement for the second year. In studying the Agreement I was wrong and they were right. Article 7 does say that the withdrawal fees do apply for 2 years following the termination of the Agreement.

Holy shyt. The Pac2 are screwed if they try to take any of the MWC schools earlier than the August 1. 2027 date.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I know that you hate the stress of not knowing what's going to happen, but the reality is that the deal that the MWC is willing to give us to join is ALWAYS going to be there. If it's not, that's because other teams are getting poached and at that point, it wouldn't matter if we were in the conference or not.

What "deal" do you speak of? Did you read the article?

 

[Loyal Coug1]

The article said something that I thought was wrong. I thought the poach penalty (Withdrawal Fees) ended August 1, 2025 because they did not extend the scheduling agreement for the second year. In studying the Agreement I was wrong and they were right. Article 7 does say that the withdrawal fees do apply for 2 years following the termination of the Agreement.

Holy shyt. The Pac2 are screwed if they try to take any of the MWC schools earlier than the August 1. 2027 date.

I kind of glossed over that. Thanks for confirming it with the actual document. I had it but it and all my other links got deleted when I was out of town and my dog-watching buddy got on my computer and went places he should not have.
And yeah, this is major.

 

[BleedCrimsonandGray]

Replying to myself here. Two (oops 5) quick takeways from the article (although I have many, including why no picture of Gloria :

• A source sez the Big-12 recently gave us a "hard no"
• Nice recap of the costs of poaching MW schools. A ridiculous scenario, money-wise, for us and them
• No to 9 MW schools dissolving the conference
• ACC is not going anywhere anytime soon, if ever
• And most importantly (since the Mighty Loyal has said the exact same thing in his infinite wisdom) the MW is "modeling ways to create minimum budget levels to elevate the bottom levels of the conference with the threat of expulsion if they don’t meet them." My foresight and brilliance sometimes blinds me

But keep it up, Cougs, and let us fall into oblivion. Funny that with all of our fantastic leaders (Teresa, Scott and Anne aka the 3 stooges) we have to hire a consultant to help us craft a 2025 schedule. F-ing really?

Wonder if WSU would meet the budget basement or not with current spending?

 

[BiggsCoug]

The article said something that I thought was wrong. I thought the poach penalty (Withdrawal Fees) ended August 1, 2025 because they did not extend the scheduling agreement for the second year. In studying the Agreement I was wrong and they were right. Article 7 does say that the withdrawal fees do apply for 2 years following the termination of the Agreement.

Holy shyt. The Pac2 are screwed if they try to take any of the MWC schools earlier than the August 1. 2027 date.

Held over a barrel to get a schedule for 2025.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Personally, the high point of the article for me was the analogy of being left on the helipad in the Saigon bug out.

Something that I have heard is going on in the background is an effort to get an extension on our 2 year deadline...putting it past the Aug 1, 2027 date. Prob not a lot of chance of that happening, but it would certainly introduce another dynamic.

The $65 mil from the PAC money would negate the penalty for 6 MW teams. That gets the league to 8. The question as to whether a team would pony up $20 mil to come along for the ride is not as big an obstacle as it first appears...the media revenue noted above is the biggest part of the financial picture, but not the ONLY part. The biggest variable as I see it is the appetite of the networks that do not have college football to pick up a reorganized PAC. The success level of CW this season is going to play a role in that, but there are also other things going on in the media world right now that will play a role. I'll throw out one, since I've heard it said here in LA more than once this year...what happens if Netflix decides it wants to add college football (one of my partners actually heard that said within Netflix's building)? And that is only one scenario that is completely out of our control.

IF I were handicapping, my order of likelihood would be as follows:

1.) Reorganized PAC, with the majority of the added 6 coming from the MWC (but potentially one or two from out of the MWC). I think this is the most likely option if the CW does well this fall with our games, because either the CW or another network will see the opportunity.
2.) Something relating to the ACC. That could happen in a lot of forms, and it all hinges on whether FSU, et al, can get loose.
3.) Full reverse merger with all MWC teams....with some sort of "perform or get out" clause for the new PAC. This is the easiest to see coming as the fallback position.
4.) B12 decides to take us. That will happen only if a network wants it. At this point I don't see that happening.
5.) We get an extension to our 2 year grace period and kick the can down the road. I don't see this happening, but I rule nothing out, except:
6.) What WILL NOT happen: independent or us moving into the MWC. The PAC brand will not be dropped. Before that would happen, either #1 or #3 above will happen.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Personally, the high point of the article for me was the analogy of being left on the helipad in the Saigon bug out.

Something that I have heard is going on in the background is an effort to get an extension on our 2 year deadline...putting it past the Aug 1, 2027 date. Prob not a lot of chance of that happening, but it would certainly introduce another dynamic.

The $65 mil from the PAC money would negate the penalty for 6 MW teams. That gets the league to 8. The question as to whether a team would pony up $20 mil to come along for the ride is not as big an obstacle as it first appears...the media revenue noted above is the biggest part of the financial picture, but not the ONLY part. The biggest variable as I see it is the appetite of the networks that do not have college football to pick up a reorganized PAC. The success level of CW this season is going to play a role in that, but there are also other things going on in the media world right now that will play a role. I'll throw out one, since I've heard it said here in LA more than once this year...what happens if Netflix decides it wants to add college football (one of my partners actually heard that said within Netflix's building)? And that is only one scenario that is completely out of our control.

IF I were handicapping, my order of likelihood would be as follows:

1.) Reorganized PAC, with the majority of the added 6 coming from the MWC (but potentially one or two from out of the MWC). I think this is the most likely option if the CW does well this fall with our games, because either the CW or another network will see the opportunity.
2.) Something relating to the ACC. That could happen in a lot of forms, and it all hinges on whether FSU, et al, can get loose.
3.) Full reverse merger with all MWC teams....with some sort of "perform or get out" clause for the new PAC. This is the easiest to see coming as the fallback position.
4.) B12 decides to take us. That will happen only if a network wants it. At this point I don't see that happening.
5.) We get an extension to our 2 year grace period and kick the can down the road. I don't see this happening, but I rule nothing out, except:
6.) What WILL NOT happen: independent or us moving into the MWC. The PAC brand will not be dropped. Before that would happen, either #1 or #3 above will happen.

Pretty much disagree with your entire post.
For starters, the 2-year NCAA grace period expires August 1, 2026, not 2027. You are confusing it with the poaching expiration date.
Next, we are already spending the $65M you refer to. It will be gone by the end of this year. Yes much more money is on the way to replace it, money we will need the next year. And you are nuts if you think the MW teams will pony up another $20M each in exit fees on a lark.
Next, what makes you or anyone else thing that this mystical Pac-8 will get a good media deal? Still G5 (G6 if it happens), basically a smaller MW conference.

The only realistic options in your analysis are # 2 and #6. But keep on dreaming.......

 

[95coug]

Pretty much disagree with your entire post.
For starters, the 2-year NCAA grace period expires August 1, 2026, not 2027. You are confusing it with the poaching expiration date.
Next, we are already spending the $65M you refer to. It will be gone by the end of this year. Yes much more money is on the way to replace it, money we will need the next year. And you are nuts if you think the MW teams will pony up another $20M each in exit fees on a lark.
Next, what makes you or anyone else thing that this mystical Pac-8 will get a good media deal? Still G5 (G6 if it happens), basically a smaller MW conference.

The only realistic options in your analysis are # 2 and #6. But keep on dreaming.......

#2 isn't very realistic. ACC isn't coming west as long as FSU and Clemson are on board. And right now, FSU and Clemson are losing. It might take years for that to be resolved...and if they escape, they take most of the ACC value with them.

Some version of a merger still seems most likely to me, likely including the minimum expenditure and performance threshold. That's going to be tied up with the MWC's new media deal though. If their commissioner really wants to put our feet to the fire, she should be working on gathering bids starting yesterday.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

What "deal" do you speak of? Did you read the article?

I read the article and the deal that I'm talking about is us just joining the MWC either as member team or a full reverse merger. Either "deal" is going to always be on the table. As mentioned in the article, at this point in time, WSU and OSU both have more media value than anyone in the MWC. Unless the MWC leadership is as boneheaded as Pac-12 leadership was....they are always going to be interested in having us.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

I read the article and the deal that I'm talking about is us just joining the MWC either as member team or a full reverse merger. Either "deal" is going to always be on the table. As mentioned in the article, at this point in time, WSU and OSU both have more media value than anyone in the MWC. Unless the MWC leadership is as boneheaded as Pac-12 leadership was....they are always going to be interested in having us.

I guess I can agree with that. But at what cost? If we end up going to them hat in hand in a year begging to be let in (a scenario which gets more likely by the day) might Gloria just lay the wood to us with a big entry fee, reduced media rights, etc? I would if I were her.

 

[Cougini5591]

I am having no issue with the Pac-12 becoming the Pac-8 and us having 4 or 5 non conference games... although I'd rather have an actual championship game for the conference every year in Vegas.

Sign an agreement with the ACC for 2 games per season in an exchange.

Play a Big Sky school once a year.

Whatever the "other" non-conference game is... play anyone else besides fusc, Whoregon, or Jeremy Steven's retirement housing foundation

 

[CougPatrol]

I'm more in favor of us signing the top-6 programs from the MWC and leveraging that with the other conferences from the standpoint of schedule agreements and/or expansion.

Maybe the Big12 and ACC don't want the P2 to join as members, but ESPN could encourage them to sign a scheduling agreement where the 8-teams in the reformed Pac/West play 2 non-conference games/year against them.

If we were to end up in a conference with Oregon State, Boise State, Fresno, SDSU, UNLV, Colorado State, and Utah State, we could offer West coast viewing windows to the other conferences without needing to become members of their leagues. We would also have the opportunity to leverage Las Vegas, San Diego, Denver, and Seattle as potential neutral site locations for opening day matchups or to lure larger opponents in their leagues out West.

This is where I see things heading, and for WSU, it wouldn't be a terrible fallback even if it is a G5 classification. If negotiated correctly, the media rights deal would be significantly better than it would be if we're forced to take on Wyoming, Hawaii, San Jose State, Nevada, New Mexico, and Air Force. For scheduling purposes, I think our fan base would be satisfied with annual or bi-annual games vs. the likes of Boise, Fresno, SDSU, UW, Cal, Stanford, Kansas State, etc. Maybe even the occasional game with the LA schools.

 

[dgibbons]

I guess I can agree with that. But at what cost? If we end up going to them hat in hand in a year begging to be let in (a scenario which gets more likely by the day) might Gloria just lay the wood to us with a big entry fee, reduced media rights, etc? I would if I were her.

The cost of not having to hear a word from you about the MWC commissioner.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Pretty much disagree with your entire post.
For starters, the 2-year NCAA grace period expires August 1, 2026, not 2027. You are confusing it with the poaching expiration date.
Next, we are already spending the $65M you refer to. It will be gone by the end of this year. Yes much more money is on the way to replace it, money we will need the next year. And you are nuts if you think the MW teams will pony up another $20M each in exit fees on a lark.
Next, what makes you or anyone else thing that this mystical Pac-8 will get a good media deal? Still G5 (G6 if it happens), basically a smaller MW conference.

The only realistic options in your analysis are # 2 and #6. But keep on dreaming.......

Well, I guess this week has been a real dream! 😎

 

[Observer11]

Well, I guess this week has been a real dream! 😎

Gloria screwed the pouch so maybe Loyal does have a chance

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Well, I guess this week has been a real dream! 😎

Gloria screwed the pouch so maybe Loyal does have a chance

I was definitely wrong on this one. And haha Observer. I would be willing to go down and console her.....

 

[dgibbons]

Gloria screwed the pouch so maybe Loyal does have a chance

Don’t think he’d have a chance even if he sprung for the Kirkland brand vodka.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Don’t think he’d have a chance even if he sprung for the Kirkland brand vodka.

I don't shop at Costco. I swore off Vodka some time ago, But yeah would get Monarch I think? That with a Mike's Harder Lemonade chaser? Guaranteed buzz within about 15 minutes.

 

[Coug90]

I don't shop at Costco. I swore off Vodka some time ago, But yeah would get Monarch I think? That with a Mike's Harder Lemonade chaser? Guaranteed buzz within about 15 minutes.

Guaranteed splitting headache in the morning too 🤮