Preseason predictions
- Thread starter 79COUG
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I thought we could be 4-1.....but I would have picked the loss against Wisconsin or OSU, not UCLA. I was thinking a more realistic record was 3-2.
FWIW, Massey's computer model said that we were going to lose to UCLA and still picks us to finish 9-3 right now. His model says that it's going to be 10-1 UW vs 9-2 WSU in the Apple Cup.
We don’t have the OL or the consistency of a 9-3 team. So far we haven’t played a full game. We can probably get away with that against Stanford and ASU, maybe split with Colorado and Cal. It won’t get us past Arizona. And right now, it doesn’t look like we have the horses to get by UW or Oregon.
Unless we can figure out how to play in the 3rd quarter, we’re 6-6 or 7-5.
The doom and glom is a bit much for me at this point. Sure one of the best defenses in the conference shut us down. I see a lot of people saying thr oregon state and Wisconsin wins are over rated. Both those teams only have one loss right now...to WSU. Not sure why we should discount those wins.
So back to the original question 95, where did you think we would be at this point in the season before it started?
Yesterday sucked....but last time I checked, we have Top 25 wins over Wisconsin and Oregon State. The Badgers will likely be in the Top 25 again if they beat Iowa and and Illinois as expected in the next couple weeks. Oregon State is solid. You don't win two games like that if you suck. Every time we have a bad game, we see people go into panic mode and assume that the sky is falling.
Arizona looks a lot better than last year, but USC's defense sucks donkey balls so let's not schedule Arizona's trip to the Alamo Bowl just yet. The Wildcats almost lost to a terrible Stanford team. We managed to lose to a terrible Cal team in 2017 so anything can happen but that also means that Arizona playing UW and USC close is just as likely that it was a trap game for those teams as much as anything else.
Cal is going to be a hot mess when we play them after they get stuck playing Utah, USC and Oregon in consecutive weeks. As long as we take them seriously, we beat the Bears. If Arizona is as good as some think, CU is going to be facing them after playing UCLA and OSU...two teams that are definitely good enough to beat the Buffs. Their is a damn good chance that it's going to be our job to give them loss #6 on the season. The Buffs defense isn't UCLA and we are going to win that game.
I don't see us beating Oregon or UW...but only time will tell. Don't let the heat and hot mess that happened yesterday get you in a panic. UCLA is back in the Top 25 and will probably be there at the end of the season. It sucked but they are likely to finish with 9+ wins. We played terrible yesterday and if we do that again, we can lose to anybody, but when our team plays with discipline and takes care of the ball, we can hang with anybody.
Anywhere from 4-8 to 9-3, depending on which version of Ward showed up. Still think that’s valid. The big surprise so far has been the defense, although we still haven’t faced the kind of offense that destroyed us last year.
I think it’s a little funny when people point to our “top 25 wins.” Those are pretty meaningless, really. What was Wisconsin’s ranking based on in week 2? Nothing. What was OSU’s based on in week 4? Very little. Neither had yet proven that they were quality teams, and both could finish unranked…as could we. We’re only just now starting to figure out who’s actually good, because teams are only just now getting some quality opponents behind them.
Oregon State was ranked before and after our win and everything suggests that they are going to finish with 8 or 9 wins. Win their bowl game and they'll finished ranked. Oregon State was good last year and they are good this year so I don't see your point there....other than just to be anti-social.
Wisconsin is a little trickier, but given their sh!t schedule, they are probably going to finished ranked. Ohio State is the only game left on their schedule that they won't be favored to win. We had a crap schedule in 2018 and I don't see anyone around demanding that we disavow our Top 10 finish that season...so again...I don't see your point.
We have two quality wins and I don't see your point in diminishing them. Nobody in the media is. If anything, it's why they respect the Cougs this year.
Nobody predicted that the conference would be as stacked as it is this year. Teams like Arizona, Cal, and Colorado are capable of beating us.
My point is that pre-season, week 2, and week 4 rankings mean exactly dick. Every single year, we see teams highly ranked in the preseason that end up unranked, and teams that start unranked end up in the top 15. They shouldn’t even publish rankings until mid-season.
When oregon state finishes ranked, we’ll know what that win was worth. When they’re 3-0 with wins over SJSU, SDSU, and UC-D…forgive me for not putting much stock in their #14. Wisconsins was even softer, with only Buffalo behind them. Early season rankings are based on expectations, not reality.
That's fair....but the reality is that we are now heading into week seven and both of those wins look as good or better than they did when they happened. Wisconsin is slogging through their schedule and Oregon State is taking care of business.
If it makes you feel better, you can erase "Top 25" from the discussion and just call them quality wins?
Why would any Cougar fan discount 2- Top 25 wins?
They happened. This Cougar team earned them.
Don’t dismiss them. That’s ridiculous.
They happened. This Cougar team earned them.
Don’t dismiss them. That’s ridiculous.
We had plenty of people here thinking UCLA was going to be an easy win. Recency bias, the sky is falling. Was it ugly? Yes. Reality: We are 2-1 against top 20 teams this season, and the loss was a one score game on the road. While I’d prefer we were unbeaten today as well and disappointed that some coaches got out coached and some players didn’t show up, we’d all probably take 4-1 in this scenario pre-season. Hopefully a learning moment and they take it out on AZ.
I'm not dismissing the wins. They still count. I'm dismissing the validity of any rankings before week 6...at the earliest.
As a long time cougar fan for over 55 years, I have learned in the preseason not to even bother counting up wins and losses before they happen.
I do try to think about what kind of team it will be, and what the strengths and weaknesses will be. I correctly predicted that the offensive line would be inconsistent and have lots of growing pains. Even in our “signature “wins, there were times that the O line was inconsistent. Much of the second half against Wisconsin and Oregon State they got bad grades.
I also correctly predicted that our defense would be decent. Dickert seems to find a way there. I’m still a little concerned about what will happen when we actually face a really good passing offense. Also some of our failures to wrap up the ball carrier are inexplicable at this level.
Cam has actually surprised me overall. He would be an idiot to go pro after this year though.
Of course, having suffered through plenty of bad seasons, I am happy with being four and one. Even the prospects of being in any bowl game have me excited. I still have some concerns though.
There are a lot of people on this board who engage in all or nothing thinking. If somebody complains about the teams problems or issues, that doesn’t mean they are saying that the sky is falling and aren’t happy with a win or being 4-1.
I do try to think about what kind of team it will be, and what the strengths and weaknesses will be. I correctly predicted that the offensive line would be inconsistent and have lots of growing pains. Even in our “signature “wins, there were times that the O line was inconsistent. Much of the second half against Wisconsin and Oregon State they got bad grades.
I also correctly predicted that our defense would be decent. Dickert seems to find a way there. I’m still a little concerned about what will happen when we actually face a really good passing offense. Also some of our failures to wrap up the ball carrier are inexplicable at this level.
Cam has actually surprised me overall. He would be an idiot to go pro after this year though.
Of course, having suffered through plenty of bad seasons, I am happy with being four and one. Even the prospects of being in any bowl game have me excited. I still have some concerns though.
There are a lot of people on this board who engage in all or nothing thinking. If somebody complains about the teams problems or issues, that doesn’t mean they are saying that the sky is falling and aren’t happy with a win or being 4-1.
We’re still doing this after UCLA? We can lose to anyone left on the schedule. We won’t, but we sure as hell can.
One scary thing about the game Saturday is I’m wondering if UCLA gave everyone the blueprint on beating our offense. Ward and the OLine couldn’t seem to handle when most of the front 7 was in a two point stance. It’s not like this is new, Dick LeBeau invented the zone blitz with this alignment years ago. But it confused everyone for 4 quarters. And the one counter to that approach we can’t seem to do either…gashing runs up the middle.
I’d expect to see this type of defensive strategy from every team we play going forward.
We can lose to anybody on our schedule, but we can still beat everyone on our schedule....even UW and Oregon. Who knows what happened yesterday but I suspect that there were a lot of different factors. Cam took a pretty big hit early in the game and you have to wonder if he was playing with his head screwed on straight after that hit. The heat can suck the life out of you if you aren't prepared. Did we read our own press clippings too much? Was UCLA particularly fired up after seeing so many pundits favoring the Cougs? Can Arbuckle take what he saw on Saturday and figure out a solution?
UCLA has arguably the 2nd best defense in the conference behind Utah. Our offense was fine against both Wisconsin and Oregon State....two teams with very good defenses. We got thumped by a mediocre Cal team in 2017. We scored 3 friggin' points in that game where Cal was giving up 43 points per game in the two games on either side of ours in the schedule. Some games are just anomalies and you need to flush them and move on.
If we lose to Arizona...it's time to start to panic because I wouldn't want to be heading into Tempe on a three game losing streak. If we beat Arizona and take care of business against the other mediocre teams on our schedule, we are going to have a good season. Too early to panic over one bad game.
That's the way the world works now. "You're either with us or against us" is the norm. Grey areas and middle/common ground aren't allowed.
Thanks flat. Heading straight to my Bookie to bet the farm on the over in OSU/UCLA. They gonna put 60 on the Bruins now.
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