Since I'm bored with the off-season...

[How_did_this_happen?]

I know I've seen a version of this on a prior thread (or maybe on another board?), but here is my WAG/uninformed projections for the upcoming season (non Koolaid-drinking probability of winning in parenthesis to the nearest 10%):

MSU (30%) - Well, can you blame me? Reference 2015, 2016 if you think I'm delusional.
BSU (70%) - I only give it this high a percentage BECAUSE we likely lose in week one
OSU (70%)
Nevada (90%)
USC (20%) - This is perhaps a bit generous.
@Oregon (50%) - new coach, so who knows?
@Cal (70%) - see previous comment
Colorado (60%) - They lost a lot on D, but they will still be solid. Home game helps. We'll be at altitude (low altitude), so that helps.
@Arizona (70%) -
Furd (40%)
@Utah (50%)
@UW (20%) - sorry, not seeing any reason to be optimistic given how we've performed against them under Petersen

So fire away at my percentages. As you can see, I'm an optimist!

We'll win 7 games (rounding up only).

 

[kayak15]

I know I've seen a version of this on a prior thread (or maybe on another board?), but here is my WAG/uninformed projections for the upcoming season (non Koolaid-drinking probability of winning in parenthesis to the nearest 10%):

MSU (30%) - Well, can you blame me? Reference 2015, 2016 if you think I'm delusional.
BSU (70%) - I only give it this high a percentage BECAUSE we likely lose in week one
OSU (70%)
Nevada (90%)
USC (20%) - This is perhaps a bit generous.
@Oregon (50%) - new coach, so who knows?
@Cal (70%) - see previous comment
Colorado (60%) - They lost a lot on D, but they will still be solid. Home game helps. We'll be at altitude (low altitude), so that helps.
@Arizona (70%) -
Furd (40%)
@Utah (50%)
@UW (20%) - sorry, not seeing any reason to be optimistic given how we've performed against them under Petersen

So fire away at my percentages. As you can see, I'm an optimist!

We'll win 7 games (rounding up only).

Cannot argue with the general tenor of your analysis.

MSU- I would type LOL here but we all get your drift. All of our first game crimson glasses are now missing one lens, the other is badly cracked and the frame is held together by tape. That acknowledged, the previous staff was able to beat MSU, albeit barely, so there is hope.
BSU- We have the home field advantage in a tossup game so I am inclined to see this one as 60%.
OSU- about right. The Beavs are steadily getting better as is their staff. Not there yet but no longer a pushover.
UNR- O.K. but nervous. We have a recent history of losing to what we thought were OOC cupcakes. Will our first game loss occur in the fourth week this year?
USC- Yep, the Trojans are back up to speed. For some instinctual reason, I give us a 30% chance here.
Ducks- Agree. Lots of talent but new staff. Game in Autzen.
Cal- 80%. Lost talent, new staff and no real support from the administration. I fully expect the Bears to be the weakest team in the Pac12 this year.
Buffs- maybe a bit higher. They lost a lot from a senior laden team. Home field for us.
Arizona- O.K. Seems right. Might be poor ole RichRod's last year.
Furd- Yep, expect another solid team from the Trees.
Utah- Agree.
the u- Unfortunately it would appear that 20% may be it. We have not only lost recent Apple Cups, we haven't really been competitive. Game at Montlake. No detectable optimism from me at this time.

Happen, your post may be the first of its kind this year but certainly won't be the last.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

Cannot argue with the general tenor of your analysis.

MSU- I would type LOL here but we all get your drift. All of our first game crimson glasses are now missing one lens, the other is badly cracked and the frame is held together by tape. That acknowledged, the previous staff was able to beat MSU, albeit barely, so there is hope.
BSU- We have the home field advantage in a tossup game so I am inclined to see this one as 60%.
OSU- about right. The Beavs are steadily getting better as is their staff. Not there yet but no longer a pushover.
UNR- O.K. but nervous. We have a recent history of losing to what we thought were OOC cupcakes. Will our first game loss occur in the fourth week this year?
USC- Yep, the Trojans are back up to speed. For some instinctual reason, I give us a 30% chance here.
Ducks- Agree. Lots of talent but new staff. Game in Autzen.
Cal- 80%. Lost talent, new staff and no real support from the administration. I fully expect the Bears to be the weakest team in the Pac12 this year.
Buffs- maybe a bit higher. They lost a lot from a senior laden team. Home field for us.
Arizona- O.K. Seems right. Might be poor ole RichRod's last year.
Furd- Yep, expect another solid team from the Trees.
Utah- Agree.
the u- Unfortunately it would appear that 20% may be it. We have not only lost recent Apple Cups, we haven't really been competitive. Game at Montlake. No detectable optimism from me at this time.

Happen, your post may be the first of its kind this year but certainly won't be the last.

Good comments. Just watch. We will start 3-1 and our loss will be to freakin' Nevada....which, of course, means we follow with an upset of undefeated USC. It would be very Leach-esque (and I'd take that start any day).

 

[SCglory]

Good comments. Just watch. We will start 3-1 and our loss will be to freakin' Nevada....which, of course, means we follow with an upset of undefeated USC. It would be very Leach-esque (and I'd take that start any day).

Leach has lost his last head-scratcher. Not this year. SC defense is tough this year. Am thinking of reprising my 2014 visit to Pullman....but last time I did that Halliday got hurt!!

 

[Flatlandcoug]

If we lose to MSU, it is going to be time to be critical of Leach. Paul Wulff needed to be fired because he was incapable of getting us to bowl games. Mike Leach is getting paid a lot more than Wulff because we expect to have a shot at more than just showing up to bowl games. I'm grateful for everything that Leach has done, but losing to a third FCS school in a row would say so many bad things about Leach's ability to prepare the football team for the season and would ensure that truly being relevant may never happen.

In the short term, the early season blunders haven't mattered because the team has recovered well, but we aren't paying out his salary and going into debt every year to finish 8-4 every season. We are obviously not going to fire Leach over another choke job against MSU (if that were to happen), but Moos needs to evaluate what his goals are if that happens. I'm not advocating Leach's firing at all, but some kind of shakeup would need to happen. The trip to Lewiston would be the first thing on the chopping block in my mind.

 

[CPtheCoug]

If we lose to MSU, it is going to be time to be critical of Leach. Paul Wulff needed to be fired because he was incapable of getting us to bowl games. Mike Leach is getting paid a lot more than Wulff because we expect to have a shot at more than just showing up to bowl games. I'm grateful for everything that Leach has done, but losing to a third FCS school in a row would say so many bad things about Leach's ability to prepare the football team for the season and would ensure that truly being relevant may never happen.

In the short term, the early season blunders haven't mattered because the team has recovered well, but we aren't paying out his salary and going into debt every year to finish 8-4 every season. We are obviously not going to fire Leach over another choke job against MSU (if that were to happen), but Moos needs to evaluate what his goals are if that happens. I'm not advocating Leach's firing at all, but some kind of shakeup would need to happen. The trip to Lewiston would be the first thing on the chopping block in my mind.

I know it's all personal perceptions, but in my experience there has been A LOT of criticism of Leach...

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

If we lose to MSU, it is going to be time to be critical of Leach. Paul Wulff needed to be fired because he was incapable of getting us to bowl games. Mike Leach is getting paid a lot more than Wulff because we expect to have a shot at more than just showing up to bowl games. I'm grateful for everything that Leach has done, but losing to a third FCS school in a row would say so many bad things about Leach's ability to prepare the football team for the season and would ensure that truly being relevant may never happen.

In the short term, the early season blunders haven't mattered because the team has recovered well, but we aren't paying out his salary and going into debt every year to finish 8-4 every season. We are obviously not going to fire Leach over another choke job against MSU (if that were to happen), but Moos needs to evaluate what his goals are if that happens. I'm not advocating Leach's firing at all, but some kind of shakeup would need to happen. The trip to Lewiston would be the first thing on the chopping block in my mind.

Wait...so you'd blame the Lewiston camp as the reason for the slow starts? I'm not sure I follow why that would be the case. Distractions of the big city?

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

Leach has lost his last head-scratcher. Not this year. SC defense is tough this year. Am thinking of reprising my 2014 visit to Pullman....but last time I did that Halliday got hurt!!

I think he has a few more head scratchers to offer. Fortunately, he also has some upsets to keep us from freaking out too much. Such is the drama that inevitably comes with Leach-coached team...

 

[Coug95man2]

I think he has a few more head scratchers to offer. Fortunately, he also has some upsets to keep us from freaking out too much. Such is the drama that inevitably comes with Leach-coached team...

I remember when CML was hired and all the Leach followers from TT can on here to congratulate us... and it always was followed with, "There will be some games that you'll lose and you shoulda won. There will be some games that you'll win that you shoulda lost. Enjoy the ride!"

Thought I got what they were saying... Now I KNOW what they were saying. This stuff will continue with CML... But not because of CML. He places so much responsibility on the players, especially the QB. And because of that, the games will respond to the maturity (or lack there of), the experience, etc. of 18-22 year old kids... It'll always be a high end roller coaster ride.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Wait...so you'd blame the Lewiston camp as the reason for the slow starts? I'm not sure I follow why that would be the case. Distractions of the big city?

I'm saying that we didn't start losing to nobody teams prior to us holding camp in Lewiston. Regardless of any talk, it obviously hasn't done anything for our program when it comes to starting the season. Why waste money down there when it obviously hasn't helped?

 

[Coug95man2]

I'm saying that we didn't start losing to nobody teams prior to us holding camp in Lewiston. Regardless of any talk, it obviously hasn't done anything for our program when it comes to starting the season. Why waste money down there when it obviously hasn't helped?

A bit linear in your thinking. What if it's doing a lot, just not the outcome you're wanting? What if Lewiston Camp is what's allowed the team to bounce back after these silly losses?

 

[CougPatrol]

A 20% chance to win the Apple Cup? That seems really high. I'd put it at 5% maybe. We haven't exactly been competitive with them of late.

 

[brettcraycraft51]

I'm saying that we didn't start losing to nobody teams prior to us holding camp in Lewiston. Regardless of any talk, it obviously hasn't done anything for our program when it comes to starting the season. Why waste money down there when it obviously hasn't helped?

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

A 20% chance to win the Apple Cup? That seems really high. I'd put it at 5% maybe. We haven't exactly been competitive with them of late.

Fair point.

 

[cougarmike]

If we lose to MSU, it is going to be time to be critical of Leach. Paul Wulff needed to be fired because he was incapable of getting us to bowl games. Mike Leach is getting paid a lot more than Wulff because we expect to have a shot at more than just showing up to bowl games. I'm grateful for everything that Leach has done, but losing to a third FCS school in a row would say so many bad things about Leach's ability to prepare the football team for the season and would ensure that truly being relevant may never happen.

In the short term, the early season blunders haven't mattered because the team has recovered well, but we aren't paying out his salary and going into debt every year to finish 8-4 every season. We are obviously not going to fire Leach over another choke job against MSU (if that were to happen), but Moos needs to evaluate what his goals are if that happens. I'm not advocating Leach's firing at all, but some kind of shakeup would need to happen. The trip to Lewiston would be the first thing on the chopping block in my mind.

Agreed, If we lose to MSU and Leach still strings together 7+ wins people may whine but Leach will remain on a pedastel. I don't think we have ever fired a coach who went to three straight Bowl games because..... oh that's right.....we've never have had one.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

I have to adjust 6 of your percentages.

MSU is MSU. Not PSU, not EWU. Move the 30 to 90.

BSU is BSU. I expect a close game. Move the 70 to 55.

Nevada is not a 90% game. I'll buy 70%.

SC is not a 20% game. Believe it or not, they have issues, and they prefer not to travel. I'd put it at 40%.

Zona...see BSU comments. 55%, even with the lack of respect they are getting. They won't roll over.

UW. This is the perennial 50/50 game, and I don't see it being different this year. It all depends on which teams show up on game day.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

A bit linear in your thinking. What if it's doing a lot, just not the outcome you're wanting? What if Lewiston Camp is what's allowed the team to bounce back after these silly losses?

We can throw out hypotheticals all day long if people want, but for a football program that's running deeply in the red, wasting money in a piss ant town like Lewiston and then losing our first 1 or 2 games every year just seems stupid to me. Maybe that is why they bounced back....maybe not. If they find a way to lose to Montana State......I'm saying that I'd like to take the risk next year and just stay home.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Agreed, If we lose to MSU and Leach still strings together 7+ wins people may whine but Leach will remain on a pedastel. I don't think we have ever fired a coach who went to three straight Bowl games because..... oh that's right.....we've never have had one.

I'm thrilled with what Leach is done and it will be a while before people complain, but it is only a matter of time before 8-4 isn't good enough. Everyone with a brain knows that Bill Snyder is one of the greatest college coaches ever but there were people calling for his retirement last year when KSU was 3-3 with losses to teams that went on to finish a combined 31-8. The team went 9-4 overall and life was ok again.

 

[Coug95man2]

We can throw out hypotheticals all day long if people want, but for a football program that's running deeply in the red, wasting money in a piss ant town like Lewiston and then losing our first 1 or 2 games every year just seems stupid to me. Maybe that is why they bounced back....maybe not. If they find a way to lose to Montana State......I'm saying that I'd like to take the risk next year and just stay home.

Wait a second. You bring financials into this equation... Do you really think that trip is hurting WSU financially? You really think Sacajawea JUNIOR HIGH is just jacking us around on price? While I'm sure it costs money, you GOTTA be kidding me to bring up financials and Sacajawea MIDDLE SCHOOL as some financial weight. Don't have any numbers to back my stance up but I have zero concerns about the cost of 5 practices in Lewiston ID at Sacajawea MIDDLE SCHOOL.

Second, I was only pointing out your comment was as much a hypothetical as any other. And I don't think you'd thought of other alternatives to the debate regarding Summer practice.

Regarding your point of "if we lose to MSU lets try staying at home", honestly I guess I don't care. It's your logic to get to that point that made me scratch my head. Sure, stay home for summer ball. Whatever. I kinda like the whole, "Go out to the wilderness, bond, talk and become friends with people you'd normally not talk to or room with at school" etc. etc. Reminds me a bit of Bear Bryant and the Junction Boys. But if CML thinks it isn't worthy, meh. OK.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Wait a second. You bring financials into this equation... Do you really think that trip is hurting WSU financially? You really think Sacajawea JUNIOR HIGH is just jacking us around on price? While I'm sure it costs money, you GOTTA be kidding me to bring up financials and Sacajawea MIDDLE SCHOOL as some financial weight. Don't have any numbers to back my stance up but I have zero concerns about the cost of 5 practices in Lewiston ID at Sacajawea MIDDLE SCHOOL.

Second, I was only pointing out your comment was as much a hypothetical as any other. And I don't think you'd thought of other alternatives to the debate regarding Summer practice.

Regarding your point of "if we lose to MSU lets try staying at home", honestly I guess I don't care. It's your logic to get to that point that made me scratch my head. Sure, stay home for summer ball. Whatever. I kinda like the whole, "Go out to the wilderness, bond, talk and become friends with people you'd normally not talk to or room with at school" etc. etc. Reminds me a bit of Bear Bryant and the Junction Boys. But if CML thinks it isn't worthy, meh. OK.

I don't know the exact numbers of course, but I guarantee that we don't stay down there for free. Even if it only costs $25,000 for hotels, catering, field rentals and other costs, that's $25,000 that hasn't produced any measurable result in week one. In the overall scope of our budget, that's peanuts, but again, if we can't win in week one, I would save the money and spend it on something else.

 

[SCglory]

I have to adjust 6 of your percentages.

MSU is MSU. Not PSU, not EWU. Move the 30 to 90.

BSU is BSU. I expect a close game. Move the 70 to 55.

Nevada is not a 90% game. I'll buy 70%.

SC is not a 20% game. Believe it or not, they have issues, and they prefer not to travel. I'd put it at 40%.

Zona...see BSU comments. 55%, even with the lack of respect they are getting. They won't roll over.

UW. This is the perennial 50/50 game, and I don't see it being different this year. It all depends on which teams show up on game day.

Not sure why you're trending SC downward. Their "issues" are minor, and don't involve the QB/RB/TE/WR/LB/DBs !! Not sure what "they prefer not to travel" even means, since NO team "prefers" to travel. Their one major question mark (DL) is coming back as mainly answered, if you believe the beat reporters who opine on that. Doesn't mean they're perfect, but traveling to Pullman in early fall is not like going to the Swamp, or Autzen in December, etc. The scuttlebutt out of spring camp is that their defense will be really, really good. Falk will have to be precise all evening to keep it close.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

Not sure why you're trending SC downward. Their "issues" are minor, and don't involve the QB/RB/TE/WR/LB/DBs !! Not sure what "they prefer not to travel" even means, since NO team "prefers" to travel. Their one major question mark (DL) is coming back as mainly answered, if you believe the beat reporters who opine on that. Doesn't mean they're perfect, but traveling to Pullman in early fall is not like going to the Swamp, or Autzen in December, etc. The scuttlebutt out of spring camp is that their defense will be really, really good. Falk will have to be precise all evening to keep it close.

Agree that Falk will have to be accurate all evening to keep it close.

The beat reporters and SC fan-atics who follow this stuff closely that I consult do not think that the DL issues are clearly resolved. Might be...might not...the way the OL handled the DL in the spring might indicate that the OL is good, or it might suggest that the OL is OK and the DL is poor. Start flipping coins or wait for the results this fall. That is the major question, but not the only question.

As for road games, SC had a solid road win at UW last year. That was their only road win of any significance. Sure, most teams prefer home games. But the home vs. away performance for SC last year was more skewed than typical. Will that be the case again this year? Who knows?

Finally, SC stumbled badly out of the gate last year but managed to right the ship. Is that likely to happen again? Again, we'll have to see. Personally, all things considered, I am happy to play SC earlier in the season, rather than later.

 

[CougPatrol]

WSU should keep it close against SC, but I don't see us winning. We're good enough offensively to keep grinding their defense with short passes, and we won't quit, so I see us scoring enough to keep the game competitive.

 

[HHusky]

I have to adjust 6 of your percentages.

MSU is MSU. Not PSU, not EWU. Move the 30 to 90.

BSU is BSU. I expect a close game. Move the 70 to 55.

Nevada is not a 90% game. I'll buy 70%.

SC is not a 20% game. Believe it or not, they have issues, and they prefer not to travel. I'd put it at 40%.

Zona...see BSU comments. 55%, even with the lack of respect they are getting. They won't roll over.

UW. This is the perennial 50/50 game, and I don't see it being different this year. It all depends on which teams show up on game day.

The Apple Cup is the perennial 70/30 game, but that's the spirit!

 

[YakiCoug]

WSU should keep it close against SC, but I don't see us winning. We're good enough offensively to keep grinding their defense with short passes, and we won't quit, so I see us scoring enough to keep the game competitive.

USC's defense loses Adoree Jackson and maybe one or two other key starters, but the returning depth and experience is undeniably impressive (consider how they manhandled the mutts in Seattle last season, and how they played well against Alabama but not well enough to overcome Max Browne at QB). I look for WSU to really struggle in this game, both offensively and defensively. Darnold is the best QB in the Pac-12.

 

[SCglory]

crazy, well, the U.S. only won one war in the 1940s either.....lol....so not sure what your point is about one "notable" road win. USC won the toughest road game on the slate and the one that mattered. They simply were a different team with Darnold than they were with Browne. He made impossible throws all season long, including a couple of sick throws against Penn State. They don't have an "opener" problem as much as they had a QB problem last season. So I don't see their poor opening last year as any pattern for this year. The best matchup for that game, imo, is the head coach. Helton is a kind, steadying influence, but lacks the "it" factor that Leach has. So if anyone can put together a successful game plan together, Leach can do it. But, talent-wise, the advantage is nearly all SC's, and it is harder on a visiting team to GET to Pullman than it is to play here. It's not autzen or husky stadium. But it's worth 4-6 points, but I don't see that mattering much. Leach's best chance is to keep it close with about 10 minutes left, then anything can happen. But Jones is a really, really good back, and I would guess that Helton will throw a running game at the cougs until they can prove they can stop it. I'm not really sure how the cougars can stop the Trojan offense....

 

[ElComanche]

I see a really competitive game. Some of the so called expects have rated this game as a tossup.I will guess that the Las Vegas line will favor SC by about 6 1/2 pts..SC does have a talent advantage but the home field advantage will have an effect on this game.SC has never liked traveling to Pullman ,and SC is not always on the top of their game.

 

[SCglory]

I see a really competitive game. Some of the so called expects have rated this game as a tossup.I will guess that the Las Vegas line will favor SC by about 6 1/2 pts..SC does have a talent advantage but the home field advantage will have an effect on this game.SC has never liked traveling to Pullman ,and SC is not always on the top of their game.

Stringing together cliches is not a substitute for research. USC is 14-3 against WSU when playing at Pullman (or Albi), and they have lost exactly twice there in the past half century (1986 and 2002). They have actually lost more often when playing AT HOME in Los Angeles (1997, 2000, 2013). College football football fans should really be familiar with this site:
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin...eam1=SouthernCalifornia&team2=WashingtonState . Gold mine in terms of looking at head to head records.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Stringing together cliches is not a substitute for research. USC is 14-3 against WSU when playing at Pullman (or Albi), and they have lost exactly twice there in the past half century (1986 and 2002). They have actually lost more often when playing AT HOME in Los Angeles (1997, 2000, 2013). College football football fans should really be familiar with this site:
http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin...eam1=SouthernCalifornia&team2=WashingtonState . Gold mine in terms of looking at head to head records.

USC has been dominant against WSU without a doubt and I don't believe that home field advantage is particularly meaningful to WSU when it comes to winning. There have been a lot of very close games in Pullman (2006, 1999, 1996, 1991, 1989, 1984). Until the Wulff era, USC usually had tough games in Pullman although there were still a few blowouts in there. As much as anything, your link points out the problem for a school like WSU trying to compete against an abusive elite power like USC. According to jhowell's website, from 1921 to 1983, WSU only played USC in Pullman a total of five times with a 1-2-2 record.

1956 - Loss
1953 - Loss
1950 - Tie
1937 - Tie
1930 - Won

In that same time frame, USC played in Seattle 2 times, Spokane 3 times and the LA area 35 times. WSU was 0-5 in games in Spokane or Seattle and 1-34 in games in LA. WSU has always been at such a disadvantage because of politics that it's been nearly impossible to close the gap. I think WSU has a great chance to give USC a tough game early in the season, particularly if you are still working out any issues on the offensive line. As far as winning.......we beat USC about once every 5-6 times so you could argue that we are due.

 

[cr8zyncalif]

crazy, well, the U.S. only won one war in the 1940s either.....lol....so not sure what your point is about one "notable" road win. USC won the toughest road game on the slate and the one that mattered. They simply were a different team with Darnold than they were with Browne. He made impossible throws all season long, including a couple of sick throws against Penn State. They don't have an "opener" problem as much as they had a QB problem last season. So I don't see their poor opening last year as any pattern for this year. The best matchup for that game, imo, is the head coach. Helton is a kind, steadying influence, but lacks the "it" factor that Leach has. So if anyone can put together a successful game plan together, Leach can do it. But, talent-wise, the advantage is nearly all SC's, and it is harder on a visiting team to GET to Pullman than it is to play here. It's not autzen or husky stadium. But it's worth 4-6 points, but I don't see that mattering much. Leach's best chance is to keep it close with about 10 minutes left, then anything can happen. But Jones is a really, really good back, and I would guess that Helton will throw a running game at the cougs until they can prove they can stop it. I'm not really sure how the cougars can stop the Trojan offense....

SC, I am not sure how we will stop the SC offense, either. It will be a tough challenge. I frankly expect Darnold to start slower than he finished; the sophomore slump seems to apply to hot freshman QB's more often than not. My earlier comment re: not knowing how good the DL is also applies here; if the SC DL is good, then the O line is scary...or so I would conclude after watching the O line have its way during spring ball. And if the O line is legitimately scary, then SC may lead the league in points this year, sophomore slump for Darnold not withstanding. However, if the SC DL is not fully up to snuff and the O line is only decent, not world beating...then it is a different story. Darnold and a good/not great RB behind a decent/not great O line is a good offense, but certainly one that is capable of a mediocre day. On balance, I expect SC to lose at least 2 games this year during regular season, and perhaps more if the WR don't fully work out. I think that a 30-40% chance for WSU to win in Pullman is realistic. SC will probably be favored, and deservedly so, but their margin for error is likely to be thin. If, for example, we are +2 in turnovers, we probably win. Clearly Falk has to be on his game. But if he turns in one of his season's best performances, and SC is flat, we probably win.

As for your comments regarding Helton, I find myself in the unusual (perhaps historically unique) position of telling you that you are selling SC short. My 1 year into the Helton era prediction is that the guy will retire at SC. The Trojans have needed a competent HC for a long time whose ego/empathy balance approximated that of a mature adult. It has been a long time since they have had that, and I think they finally have that guy. The plain vanilla appearance can be deceiving; he has a good football mind. It would be hard to find a guy as creative as Leach, so I understand giving WSU a small edge there, but there are very few HC's in the PAC that are clearly better than Helton.

 

[CougInSpain]

SC, I am not sure how we will stop the SC offense, either. It will be a tough challenge. I frankly expect Darnold to start slower than he finished; the sophomore slump seems to apply to hot freshman QB's more often than not. My earlier comment re: not knowing how good the DL is also applies here; if the SC DL is good, then the O line is scary...or so I would conclude after watching the O line have its way during spring ball. And if the O line is legitimately scary, then SC may lead the league in points this year, sophomore slump for Darnold not withstanding. However, if the SC DL is not fully up to snuff and the O line is only decent, not world beating...then it is a different story. Darnold and a good/not great RB behind a decent/not great O line is a good offense, but certainly one that is capable of a mediocre day. On balance, I expect SC to lose at least 2 games this year during regular season, and perhaps more if the WR don't fully work out. I think that a 30-40% chance for WSU to win in Pullman is realistic. SC will probably be favored, and deservedly so, but their margin for error is likely to be thin. If, for example, we are +2 in turnovers, we probably win. Clearly Falk has to be on his game. But if he turns in one of his season's best performances, and SC is flat, we probably win.

As for your comments regarding Helton, I find myself in the unusual (perhaps historically unique) position of telling you that you are selling SC short. My 1 year into the Helton era prediction is that the guy will retire at SC. The Trojans have needed a competent HC for a long time whose ego/empathy balance approximated that of a mature adult. It has been a long time since they have had that, and I think they finally have that guy. The plain vanilla appearance can be deceiving; he has a good football mind. It would be hard to find a guy as creative as Leach, so I understand giving WSU a small edge there, but there are very few HC's in the PAC that are clearly better than Helton.

I'm hoping for a good game due to the fact that might be the only game I attend in Pullman. I'm seriously considering BSU and Stanford as well but for now, I just have USC on my calendar.

 

[How_did_this_happen?]

The Apple Cup is the perennial 70/30 game, but that's the spirit!

So you essentially agree with me...

 

[CougPatrol]

I see USC winning the game, but I've learned to hold off on predictions until a few games have been played. Home field does matter, and so does coaching and QB play. USC opens with a sneaky tough Western Michigan team, followed by Stanford, Texas, and at Cal on consecutive weekends before traveling to Pullman for a Friday night game.

Texas isn't a world beater anymore, but a Texas/Stanford back-to-back is a physical challenge. Injuries and physical wear and tear are obviously huge factors in college football, and WSU being at home certainly helps.