Pac-12 MBB power ratings: Washington State beats expectations like no team has done before
Jon WilnerMarch 4, 2024 at 12:43 pmThe regular season isn’t quite over, but Washington State already has established a Pac-12 record. The mark, not typically referenced, lends context to the Cougars’ stunning run through conference play.
No team in the 12-school era has overshot expectations like the Cougars.
WSU was picked 10th in the preseason media poll released in October and will finish no worse than second place. That eight-spot difference between projected and actual finish is the largest since the conference expanded in the 2011-12 season.
Several teams have outperformed their projection finish by six positions in recent years, including Oregon State in 2020-21. But nobody has finished seven spots higher, much less eight — until Washington State.
And that’s not all. According to the Pac-12, no team has outperformed preseason expectations by eight spots since the conference began publishing a preseason media poll back in the 1984-85 season.
The Cougars aren’t done, either.
The combination of a WSU victory over Washington on Thursday (in Pullman) and an Arizona loss this week at USC or UCLA would propel the Cougars into first place.
That nine-spot improvement of actual finish over projected finish would be two better than the best in conference history, a standard shared by Arizona (1986) and ASU (1993).
So this final season is historic in more than one sense, it appears.
1. Arizona (23-6/14-4)
Last week: 1Results: won at ASU 85-67, beat Oregon 103-83
NET ranking: No. 3
Next up: at UCLA (Thursday)
Comment: The Wildcats are two wins from their 18th regular-season title, which is even more impressive when you consider they have been a member of the conference for 46 years. In other words, a championship every two-and-a-half seasons.
2. Washington State (23-7/14-5)
Last week: 2Results: beat USC 75-72 and UCLA 77-65
NET ranking: No. 37
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
Comment: In games decided by six points or less (i.e., two possessions), the Cougars are a sizzling 7-2. That confidence in close games will serve them well this month.
3. Oregon (19-10/11-7)
Last week: 3Results: beat Oregon State 78-71, lost at Arizona 103-83
NET ranking: No. 65
Next up: vs. Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: Our advice to Ducks fans: Put a little something extra in your applause for Dana Altman on Saturday afternoon against Utah, just in case it turns out to be his final appearance in Matthew Knight Arena.
4. Colorado (20-9/11-7)
Last week: 4Results: beat Cal 88-78 and Stanford 81-71
NET ranking: No. 30
Next up: at Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: In a slight statistical oddity, KJ Simpson scored 27 points against Cal and 22 against Stanford, while Tristan da Silva scored 22 and 27, respectively. Bottom line: 98 combined points from the duo was more than enough for a sweep.
5. Utah (18-11/9-9)
Last week: 7Results: beat Stanford 90-68 and Cal 88-59
NET ranking: No. 46
Next up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: After winning 17 games last season and having a hot start to the 2023-24 campaign, the Utes need to reach 20 to feel like their momentum is continuing under Craig Smith. And if they get to 20 before Selection Sunday, then No. 21 might come in the NCAAs.
6. Cal (13-17/9-10)
Last week: 5Results: lost at Colorado 88-78 and Utah 88-59
NET ranking: No. 118
Next up: at Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: The Bears won’t match WSU’s improvement over preseason projections, but they are close enough for mention. Picked 11th, they could finish as high as fifth.
7. UCLA (14-15/9-9)
Last week: 6Results: lost at Washington 94-77 and WSU 77-65
NET ranking: No. 114
Next up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
Comment: The Bruins are currently tied with Utah for fifth place but were swept in the season series. Why does that matter? Because the No. 5 seed draws Oregon State in the opening round of the Pac-12 tournament, not Stanford or USC.
8. Washington (16-14/8-11)
Last week: 9Results: beat UCLA 94-77, lost to USC 82-75
NET ranking: No. 72
Next up: at WSU (Thursday)
Comment: Mike Hopkins is doing just enough to make it less than crystal clear that a coaching change is coming, even if many Huskies fans believe it’s obvious a coaching change should come.
9. Arizona State (14-15/8-10)
Last week: 8Results: lost to Arizona 85-67
NET ranking: No. 126
Next up: at USC (Thursday)
Comment: And thus completes one of ASU’s worst competition years ever against Arizona in the two major sports, with a 36-point wipeout in the Territorial Cup and losses on the hardwood by 45 (road) and 18 (home) points. They could meet in the Pac-12 tournament, but there’s no reason to think that result would be any less lopsided.
10. USC (12-17/6-12)
Last week: 11Results: lost at WSU 72-72, won at Washington 82-75
NET ranking: No. 96
Next up: vs. Arizona State (Thursday)
Comment: Don’t look now, but the Trojans are ramping up their play just in time to win four games in four days in Las Vegas. Laugh now, acknowledge our foresight later.
11. Stanford (12-17/7-12)
Last week: 10Results: lost at Utah 90-68 and Colorado 81-71
NET ranking: No. 119
Next up: vs. Cal (Thursday)
Comment: Despite the six-game losing streak, the Cardinal has more than enough talent to win two games in the conference tournament. Probably not three, but definitely two. The record does not reflect the personnel.
12. Oregon State (12-17/4-14)
Last week: 12Results: lost at Oregon 78-71
NET ranking: No. 162
Next up: vs. Utah (Thursday)
Comment: On the bright side, the Beavers didn’t suffer a completely excruciating loss to their rival. This time, it was merely mildly excruciating.
Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com;
