Yes, I bumped my own comment... shoot me.
Here is why I hope Vegas does indeed have the over/under at 4.5
1. It means Vegas thinks we're improving.
2. It will help temper some of the 7-8 win season pre-season expectations of our fan base
3. I we win 5+, we BEAT Vegas. We win 6+ and land a bowl game? we've slaughtered expectations and might trigger that spark in our general fan base we're all hoping for