So UO and UCLA are tied for 3rd, one game behind WSU. If Colorado happens to win, they will join them in a 3-way tie for 3rd. We still play UCLA. I don't like this very much. Cougs definitely need to keep winning. Winning the Pac-12 would be fantastic - when is the last time we were champs? 1941? But 2nd would pretty much punch our ticket, regardless of the tournament results, right? Stumble a little and we could be looking at 5th place.
Watching AZ, looking at standings
- Thread starter Loyal Coug1
- Start date
It would definitely be good, awesome for WSU to keep winning.
And I think WSU will probably continue to win.
BUT it's NOT required for WSU to win either ALL or almost all, etc, of their remaining games.
WSU probably only has to win 4 out of the their last 7,8 games, to get to 22+ wins, 2,3 in conference, and make NCAA tourny.
As long as WSU finishes top 3 in conference, WSU is GUARANTEED IN. Also even a 4th place finish has about a 50% chance of being IN, as the top 3,4,5 PAC teams get IN depending on how many AQ upsets there are.
And there is not likely to be a LOGJAM tie of 4 to 6 to 8 teams for the top 3,4 spots at, by, on, final standings.
And even if that were to happen, WSU owns tiebreakers with most of those teams.
And those teams either don't have or don't have a lot of Quad 1, an or high quality wins.
And those teams don't have, won't have good enough NET rankings(37 or better).
And some of those teams have semi shitty overall win, loss records, despite their good PAC record.
WSU has either Quad 1/quad 1.5 ish high level quality wins vs:
Arizona, Oregon, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, BSU. That's 6, SIX high quality wins.
Arizona has about that many, as does Oregon. The rest? ONLY 0,1,2 high quality wins per each of the rest.
And WSU has a NET of 40, which will probably go to 33 to 35 to 37.
And WSU will probably be ranked in top 25
And even if WSU only wins 4,5 more games, they will still probably be pretty close to all that.
UCLA: They have about a semi crappy 500 overall record despite good PAC record. Their NET is over 75, so NOT even a quad 1 NET ranking.
The ONLY way WSU does NOT go to NCAA tourny is if injuries, if ONLY win 1,2,3 more games, etc.
And there is about a 7% to 13% chance that even 3 more wins would get WSU into NCAA tournament, as long as WSU won at least 1,2 PAC tourny wins.
Basically WSU would have to EPICALLY MELT DOWN, BLOW IT to not make NCAA tournament.
About a 99% chance WSU wins at least 4 more games + 1 or 2 PAC tourny wins and has at least a 67% to 75% to 83% chance to make NCAA tourny.
WSU does NOT have to win 6,7,8, LOTS more, etc, to make NCAA.
I don't think WSU will drop to 5th, even if they were to stumble a little.
WSU only has 2 more road games vs Arizona,(hard), and ASU(BAD, should be semi easy, should win) and the rest are home games, against what should be semi easier games that they should win at home vs CAL, UW, Stanford.
And even tho UCLA has a 6-5 conference record, they had a EMBARRASING noncon record against crappy noncon teams, have only a about a 500 overall record, and have to go into 11-1 Pullman, so that should be a semi easier should win game vs UCLA.
But even if WSU were to stumble a little, finish in 5th place, by only winning 3,4 more games, there would still be about a 43% chance that WSU would still go to NCAA tourny, because remember that the NCAA tourny will select the top 3,4,5 PAC teams depending on how many AQ upsets there are. If there are a lot of AQ upsets, only the top 3,4, if there are only a couple, few, etc, AQ upsets, then the PAC would get 5 into NCAA tourny.
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