What are the odds of a reverse merger? Also, the broken NIL...

[M-I-Coug]

Jon Wilner
April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am Updated April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. … Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the odds of a reverse merger between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 versus the Pac-12 simply poaching a selection of Mountain West schools to rebuild the conference? — @MarcSheehan006

It hinges, in part, on your definition of a reverse merger. But generally, we see three possible outcomes:

• All 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West and join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12.

• At least nine but not all 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West — a super-majority vote is required — and they join the Pac-12, leaving a few behind.

the latest from jon wilner​

• Between four and eight schools give notice that they are leaving the Mountain West in the summer of 2026 to join the Pac-12, a scenario that leads to departure fees for the outbound schools and a poaching penalty for the Pac-12.

The top candidates to leave are fairly clear and would bring competitive success, media value or both: San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV.

The schools in jeopardy of getting left behind would be some combination of Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, Wyoming and San Jose State, depending on the number of spots available.

Air Force and New Mexico fall into a middle tier, in our view.

Which scenario is most likely?

That would depend entirely on who else is available.

Washington State and Oregon State would prefer that another round of realignment creates a path into the ACC or Big 12 or some larger combination of those two conferences.

The next-best scenario for the ‘Pac-2’ schools would entail an ACC implosion that results in Cal and Stanford joining WSU and OSU in a rebuilt Pac-12. (In that case, the reconfigured conference would target only a few schools in the Mountain West.)

The third scenario would leave WSU and OSU with no path into the ACC or Big 12 and no possibility of Stanford and Cal returning. They would be forced to think bigger than a reverse merger with the Mountain West.

They would consider Gonzaga as a non-football member.

They would explore enlarging the conference footprint to include schools in Texas, with UTSA as an intriguing target.

They might even entertain the idea of creating a bicoastal league with schools in the Eastern Time Zone.

Keep in mind an essential element to the calculation: The Mountain West’s media deal with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the deadline for the emergence of a rebuilt Pac-12.

The media rights strategy will inform expansion decisions for WSU and OSU, and vice versa. The ‘Pac-2’ will attempt to create the most valuable entity possible.

And quantity doesn’t always equal value.

Are we overestimating the likelihood of a reverse merger? The Mountain West may not have a 100-year legacy, but it’s their legacy. — @Moneyline_RAY

Yes and no.

At this point, the likelihood of WSU and OSU executing a reverse merger, with either nine or all 12 Mountain West schools is less than 50-50.

But the chances of WSU and OSU partnering with some combination of Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner is close to 90%. Unless there’s a path into the ACC or Big 12, the Cougars and Beavers won’t have any other option.

Granted, we should not discount the possibility of WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West in a traditional expansion move.

But in our view — and despite everything that has unfolded in the past two years — the Pac-12 name and intellectual property are more valuable than the Mountain West name and intellectual property.

(How much more valuable? We can’t quantify the amount.)

And here’s one more piece to consider: Central to the long-haul strategy in Pullman and Corvallis is providing a landing spot in case the NCAA undergoes a massive restructuring — the formation of a super league, for instance — and several of the departing universities consider reversing course.

In that case, an active, competitive conference using the Pac-12 name would be more attractive.

Sponsored​

We keep hearing the ‘Pac-2’ schools have a two-year grace period under NCAA rules. But don’t they really have 12 or 14 months to formalize their plan? — @erikmiletich

Your timeframe is about right. In order for a rebuilt Pac-12 to emerge in the summer of 2026, the process for adding schools would need to begin sometime next summer.

The ‘Pac-2′ schools don’t necessarily need a formal media rights agreement in place by that point. But they would need to have the membership piece locked down.

The other element, of course, is the Mountain West’s penalty structure. Our understanding is that schools would owe approximately $18 million if they give more than 12 months’ notice and roughly $35 million if they give less than 12 months’ notice.

So, let’s mark June 30, 2025, as the Hotline’s unofficial deadline for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their next move.

Can you interview former Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff to follow up on the conversation from the ‘Canzano and Wilner’ podcast from the fall of 2022? What went wrong? — @mlondo856

I would love to and, in fact, have made several attempts in the past nine months to interview Kliavkoff. He’s not interested. Radio silence is his preferred approach.

But it’s not just the Hotline. Kliavkoff has not uttered a public peep since the conference imploded on Aug. 4. No offerings of regret or remorse. No apology to WSU, OSU and fans across the footprint.

As we wrote when his term concluded at the end of February, Kliavkoff doesn’t believe he has reason to apologize, according to sources.

He blames the collapse entirely on the presidents’ poor leadership, the difficult circumstances he inherited (from Larry Scott), and the schools’ refusal to accept the Apple deal he placed before them.

His stance is, of course, ludicrous. Of course he bears some responsibility.

But he has the right to remain silent.

Any estimates on how much former Oregon State tailback Damien Martinez will make now that he’s in the transfer portal? — @bdgiddens6

Our guess is that Martinez lands a deal in the mid-six-figure range, so anywhere from $400,000 to $600,000.

How much will be guaranteed? How much will the agreement lean into incentives? We can’t answer and don’t really care.

Money played a factor in Martinez’s decision to enter the transfer portal, but it wasn’t the only factor.

He wants the largest platform possible for his final season in order to prove to NFL scouts that he’s worthy of being a high-round draft pick.

The stouter the competition, the better.

In that regard, his decision was comparable to Jonathan Smith’s move to Michigan State. They craved competition, exposure and resources on a higher level.

We remain optimistic about Oregon State’s long-haul status in college football and basketball — the industry will eventually restructure to the point that the ‘Pac-2’ schools are on the same tier as many schools remaining in the power conferences.

But the next few years will be brutally, indisputably difficult.

Do you think the current state of NIL is broken? If so, how would you fix it if you were head of the NCAA? — @BennyL1986

It has been broken from Day One, July 1, 2021, when the NCAA prohibited schools from participating in the NIL process, thereby ensuring the booster-run collectives would control the marketplace.

Not quite three years later, the NCAA is moving toward a complete policy reversal and permitting athletic departments to broker the deals between the athletes and their business partners.

The shift will add oversight but won’t dampen the market.

What might bring some sanity?

If athletes are declared employees and paid salaries by the schools — we think that step is inevitable in the next two or three years — the impact of NIL opportunities on recruiting and transfer decisions could diminish slightly.

Like so much else about college sports, NIL is an absolute mess.

Why do you hate on Washington football so much? — @jakekwood

There is no hate. The Hotline doesn’t hate any team or school. We don’t even dislike any team or school.

Picking against a team to win during the season does not indicate an inherent bias.

All the fans who believe I’m anti-Husky because of the weekly picks seem to have forgotten that I projected Washington to win the Pac-12 championship eight months before the season began.

UW’s march to the title made the Hotline look smart. Given all the times my predictions are wrong, I’m never opposed to being right.

What do you think of the Ivy League? How does it fit into your assessment of the college athletic scene? — Lawrence Grant

When we think of the Ivy League these days, we think of irony.

With its absence of scholarships and heavy emphasis on academics, the Ivy is closer to the NCAA ideal of amateurism than any other conference in Division I.

And yet, it’s at the center of the revolution, courtesy of the Dartmouth basketball team voting to unionize.

With an assist from the National Labor Relations Board, the Green Wave voted 13-2 last month to join Service Employees International Union Local 560.

The process will take time to play out. But if successful, the players would form the first labor union in college athletics.

Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com

 

[Loyal Coug1]

Jon Wilner
April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am Updated April 20, 2024 at 7:00 am
The Hotline mailbag publishes each Friday. … Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.

What are the odds of a reverse merger between the Mountain West and the Pac-12 versus the Pac-12 simply poaching a selection of Mountain West schools to rebuild the conference? — @MarcSheehan006

It hinges, in part, on your definition of a reverse merger. But generally, we see three possible outcomes:

• All 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West and join Washington State and Oregon State in rebuilding the Pac-12.

• At least nine but not all 12 schools vote to dissolve the Mountain West — a super-majority vote is required — and they join the Pac-12, leaving a few behind.

the latest from jon wilner​

• Between four and eight schools give notice that they are leaving the Mountain West in the summer of 2026 to join the Pac-12, a scenario that leads to departure fees for the outbound schools and a poaching penalty for the Pac-12.

The top candidates to leave are fairly clear and would bring competitive success, media value or both: San Diego State, Fresno State, Boise State, Colorado State and UNLV.

The schools in jeopardy of getting left behind would be some combination of Hawaii, Utah State, Nevada, Wyoming and San Jose State, depending on the number of spots available.

Air Force and New Mexico fall into a middle tier, in our view.

Which scenario is most likely?

That would depend entirely on who else is available.

Washington State and Oregon State would prefer that another round of realignment creates a path into the ACC or Big 12 or some larger combination of those two conferences.

The next-best scenario for the ‘Pac-2’ schools would entail an ACC implosion that results in Cal and Stanford joining WSU and OSU in a rebuilt Pac-12. (In that case, the reconfigured conference would target only a few schools in the Mountain West.)

The third scenario would leave WSU and OSU with no path into the ACC or Big 12 and no possibility of Stanford and Cal returning. They would be forced to think bigger than a reverse merger with the Mountain West.

They would consider Gonzaga as a non-football member.

They would explore enlarging the conference footprint to include schools in Texas, with UTSA as an intriguing target.

They might even entertain the idea of creating a bicoastal league with schools in the Eastern Time Zone.

Keep in mind an essential element to the calculation: The Mountain West’s media deal with Fox and CBS expires in the summer of 2026, which coincides with the deadline for the emergence of a rebuilt Pac-12.

The media rights strategy will inform expansion decisions for WSU and OSU, and vice versa. The ‘Pac-2’ will attempt to create the most valuable entity possible.

And quantity doesn’t always equal value.

Are we overestimating the likelihood of a reverse merger? The Mountain West may not have a 100-year legacy, but it’s their legacy. — @Moneyline_RAY

Yes and no.

At this point, the likelihood of WSU and OSU executing a reverse merger, with either nine or all 12 Mountain West schools is less than 50-50.

But the chances of WSU and OSU partnering with some combination of Mountain West schools under the Pac-12 banner is close to 90%. Unless there’s a path into the ACC or Big 12, the Cougars and Beavers won’t have any other option.

Granted, we should not discount the possibility of WSU and OSU joining the Mountain West in a traditional expansion move.

But in our view — and despite everything that has unfolded in the past two years — the Pac-12 name and intellectual property are more valuable than the Mountain West name and intellectual property.

(How much more valuable? We can’t quantify the amount.)

And here’s one more piece to consider: Central to the long-haul strategy in Pullman and Corvallis is providing a landing spot in case the NCAA undergoes a massive restructuring — the formation of a super league, for instance — and several of the departing universities consider reversing course.

In that case, an active, competitive conference using the Pac-12 name would be more attractive.

Sponsored​

We keep hearing the ‘Pac-2’ schools have a two-year grace period under NCAA rules. But don’t they really have 12 or 14 months to formalize their plan? — @erikmiletich

Your timeframe is about right. In order for a rebuilt Pac-12 to emerge in the summer of 2026, the process for adding schools would need to begin sometime next summer.

The ‘Pac-2′ schools don’t necessarily need a formal media rights agreement in place by that point. But they would need to have the membership piece locked down.

The other element, of course, is the Mountain West’s penalty structure. Our understanding is that schools would owe approximately $18 million if they give more than 12 months’ notice and roughly $35 million if they give less than 12 months’ notice.

So, let’s mark June 30, 2025, as the Hotline’s unofficial deadline for Washington State and Oregon State to finalize their next move.

Jon Wilner: jwilner@bayareanewsgroup.com

OK, I disagree with a lot of what Wilner predicts. Primarily his doubt about a full (or 10 team) reverse merger, and his 90% prediction of a new Pac with limited MW invitees. Look - we need to keep ALL of our Pac-2 money. No and NO on spending a shitload of it poaching some of the MW. Take all or 10 of them. The MW is doing just fine, and most of their Athletic programs operate in the black. Maybe WSU could learn something from them. No f-ing way on us joining the MW. Have to keep the Pac alive for BB distributions, prestige, etc. Good for us, good for the MW.

Look. Your gorgeous wife dumped you for some better looking, wealthier guy. She's gone. But there is a fairly cute gal right down the street that wants to hook up with you. Do you mindlessly pursue the ex and/or other hot women, or do you go with the cute sweetie who will do you right and is a better match for you anyway? Pretty simple in my book.

WSU doesn't have an 80,000+ seat stadium, or millions in NIL money. Pandering to the Big-12 and/or ACC and creating a travel and logistical nightmare is BS. Deal with the rejection, take the cute sweety down the street, and move on.

I hope that WSU hires, as other schools have, a non-academic, CEO/CFO type of President who can come in and clean house. We don't need more AP employees than Faculty employees. Athletically, we can stretch out our Pac ransom monies over at least a couple of years. IF we don't blow it luring this team and that team in. If and when the NCAA blows up yet again, so what. Have our solid, West Coast league and fit into whatever scenario evolves. Or blow all of our money chasing the hot chick and end up broke and on the outside anyway.

 

[mikalalas]

OK, I disagree with a lot of what Wilner predicts. Primarily his doubt about a full (or 10 team) reverse merger, and his 90% prediction of a new Pac with limited MW invitees. Look - we need to keep ALL of our Pac-2 money. No and NO on spending a shitload of it poaching some of the MW. Take all or 10 of them. The MW is doing just fine, and most of their Athletic programs operate in the black. Maybe WSU could learn something from them. No f-ing way on us joining the MW. Have to keep the Pac alive for BB distributions, prestige, etc. Good for us, good for the MW.

Look. Your gorgeous wife dumped you for some better looking, wealthier guy. She's gone. But there is a fairly cute gal right down the street that wants to hook up with you. Do you mindlessly pursue the ex and/or other hot women, or do you go with the cute sweetie who will do you right and is a better match for you anyway? Pretty simple in my book.

WSU doesn't have an 80,000+ seat stadium, or millions in NIL money. Pandering to the Big-12 and/or ACC and creating a travel and logistical nightmare is BS. Deal with the rejection, take the cute sweety down the street, and move on.

I hope that WSU hires, as other schools have, a non-academic, CEO/CFO type of President who can come in and clean house. We don't need more AP employees than Faculty employees. Athletically, we can stretch out our Pac ransom monies over at least a couple of years. IF we don't blow it luring this team and that team in. If and when the NCAA blows up yet again, so what. Have our solid, West Coast league and fit into whatever scenario evolves. Or blow all of our money chasing the hot chick and end up broke and on the outside anyway.

You have to invest money to make MORE MONEY.

The PAC 2 has about 225 to 250 million. That is PLENTY ENOUGH to at 18 million per MWC team to get top 5 MWC teams(90 Mil), and have 160 mil left over, which is plenty enough to run conference, get some money for WSU, OSU, etc.

Then WSU would only have to get 1 more team. And that could be CAL, from a destroyed ACC, or SMU from destroyed ACC, or Memphis, or Tulane, or UTSA(San Antonio, TX), or get NDSU.

That, those things would either probably cost nothing, or about 7 mul to 12 mil to 17 mil, and would still have about 145 to 160 mil, which still enough to run everything, etc.

And if did that and had WSU, OSU, Cal, BSU, Fresno St, SDSU, UNLV, Airforce(or CSU), Memphis or Tulane or UTSA or NDSU, that would be worth about 16 to 18 to 20 to 22 mil per team per year. THATS BETTER THEN THE ONLY ABOUT 7 TO 9 TO 11 MILL THAT GET FROM REVERSE MERGING WHOLE ENTIRE MWC INTO PAC

Then currently PAC 2 gets 3.6 mil from CFP. that will probably jump to about 4.3 to 4.5 to 4.7 mil if whole MWC merges to PAC, and after 2028.

If it happens the way I outlined above, PAC will probably get 6 to 8 to 10 mil per year from CFP. That's MORE then PAC get from MWC join PAC.

Then the PAC, as outlined above would get MORE MONEY FROM BETTER BOWLS THEN THE MWC IDAHO POTATO HEAD BOWL AND LA BOWL that the PAC would get from MWC, joining PAC.

MOST DONT WANT TO SEE BOTTOM DWELLERS, SO THATS WHY A CONFERENCE WITH THE BEST TEAMS FROM MWC GETS MORE MONEY THEN A CONFERENCE TAKING WHOLE MWC, INCLUDING THE BOTTOM DWELLERS.

So Best MWC teams PAC would get about 8 mil more per team per year from media. That 64 mil per year MORE + 3.5 mil MORE per year from CFP.(In about 20 years, that almost pays for the 90 mil spent on teams by that alone) + about 2.5 mil MORE per year from BETTER BOWLS.

IN 2 TO 4 TO 6 YEARS THE BEST MWC TEAMS PAC 8+ WOULD ABOUT DOUBLE THE 225 to 250 mil that it has now, and ABOUT 1.67 TIMES THE AMOUNT THAT THE WHOLE MWC JOIN PAC would get.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. AND A BEST MWC TEAMS PAC GETS MORE MONEY THEN A WHOLE MWC PAC, AND YOU HAVE TO INVEST MONEY TO MAKE THAT MORE MONEY, AND ITS WORTH DOING FOR MORE MONEY.

And it would still be a primarily western half of USA conference, even tho ACC teams might join LATER, as a EAST DIVISION. And Travel would still be ok.

And the Best MWC teams PAC would be a hybrid G5/P4,5 semi power conference, with more prestige=usually equals MORE MONEY(If Smart(Not Scott, etc), with 1 semi guaranteed 1 of 12 CFP spot to 10-2, 11-1 Champion, better then going 11-1, 12-0 in whole MWC PAC, and still have a 12-0 AAC Champ, get the 1 G5 CFP spot, over the 11-1, 12-0 Whole MWC PAC champ.

And the Best MWC teams PAC would get 1 January Bowl, Holiday, Alamo, Las Vegas, Sun Bowl, WHICH PAY MORE MONEY, BETTER BOWLS THEN THE WHOLE MWC PAC's IDAHO POTATO HEAD BOWL, LA BOWL.

The PAC 2 IS NOT GOING TO SPEND ALL ITS MONEY. But the PAC DOES HAVE TO, SHOULD SPEND, INVEST A LIITLE TO SOME OF ITS MONEY TO INVEST, GET BIGGER, BETTER, BE THE BEST IT CAN BE IN ORDER TO HAVE THE MOST MONEY POSSIBLE.

THE PAC 2 SHOULD NOT HOARD, AND NOT SPEND EVERY LAST PENNY, UNLESS it does not have enough money. AND 250 MIL IS ENOUGH MONEY, AND ABOUT 95 MIL OUT OF THAT 250 MIL WHICH IS ENOUGH TO AFFORD 95 MIL, AND 95 MIL IS NOT TOO MUCH MONEY TO INVEST TO MAKE MORE MONEY, etc.

ALMOST EVERYBODY, EXPERTS, MEDIA, MOST WSU FANS, ETC, GET, UNDERSTAND THAT, WANT PAC 2 TO GRAB THE BEST MWC TEAMS POSSIBLE AND LEAVE THE REST BEHIND, IN ORDER TO HAVE THE BEST PAC POSSIBLE AND MAKE THE MOST MONEY POSSIBLE.

The PAC 2 will only join the MWC, or have the MWC join PAC, as ULTIMATE EXTREME LAST RESORT, AFTER IF EVERYTHING ELSE, ALL OTHER OPTIONS, POSSIBILITIES, FAIL, IF FAIL.

 

[CougPatrol]

Cal and Stanford aren't joining a league with Boise State and Fresno State.

 

[kougkurt]

Cal and Stanford aren't joining a league with Boise State and Fresno State.

Though I agree, with that opinion, it may be inevitable

 

[mikalalas]

Though I agree, with that opinion, it may be inevitable

Yeah Stanford is so stuck up that if ACC crumbled, Stanford would either stay with ACC, rebuild ACC, or join IVY League, or go independent, etc.

But CAL, is to cash strapped, that if the ACC crumbled, CAL semi probably might semi probably go back to a rebuilt PAC, as Cal won't go independent, or to Ivy League, AAC, etc, because only way that get enough money would be to join P4, or rebuilt Best MWC teams PAC 8+, and hold it's nose at the academically stinky BSU, Fresno St.

But even if not CAL, and either Memphis or Tulane, or SMU, or UTSA or NDSU instead of CAL, the point I made is still VALID, and the PAC 2, will or should do a BEST MWC TEAMS PAC 8+, AND ALMOST EVERYBODY, WSU FANS, MEDIA, ETC, EXCEPT LOYAL, and a couple, few others, ALSO WANT A BEST MWC TEAMS PAC 8+.

 

[CougPatrol]

Stanford doesn't need to make any hasty decisions. They'll float independently or put out feelers to the B!G. Cal would join the WCC before joining up with Fresno, Boise, Nevada, etc.

 

[dgibbons]

Cal and Stanford aren't joining a league with Boise State and Fresno State.

I wouldn't assume that Cal and Stanford would continue to be a package deal.

 

[BowDown253]

The funniest thing would be the "Pac 2" blowing up the Mountain West and leaving a handful of teams without a conference - oh the irony.

My bet would be Cal and Stanford get the B1G invite and get something like a 25% cut

 

[mikalalas]

The funniest thing would be the "Pac 2" blowing up the Mountain West and leaving a handful of teams without a conference - oh the irony.

My bet would be Cal and Stanford get the B1G invite and get something like a 25% cut

Big difference between going from MWC 3,4,5 to MAC, C-USA(NOT A BIG DEAL), and going from PAC 12 to PAC 2, G5.

Also a MWC with 3,4,5,6,7 remaining teams can grab teams from the MAC, AAC, C-USA, NDSU, South Dakota St, North Texas U, UTEP, Idaho(Used to be in MAC(G5), Sac St, UC Davis, and probably be just fine, almost the same, probably won't lose access to millions like PAC 12/2 did.(PAC 12/2 would have gotten millions more had the PAC 12 stayed the PAC 12.)

Also WSU, OSU was forced to do this to survive like how Utah wanted to stay in PAC 12, but then had to goto Big 12 when PAC 12 disintegrated.

If WSU, OSU had their way, and if Media, P4 conferences had recognized that WSU, OSU had about the 4th, 5th, 6th BEST TV VIEWERSHIP NUMBERS, IN THE PAC 12, AND MORE BOWLS(8 STRAIGHT), ETC, THEN THE REST OF THE PAC 12, then taking a handful of best MWC teams, and leaving rest behind wouldn't have been necessary.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

You have to invest money to make MORE MONEY.

The PAC 2 has about 225 to 250 million. That is PLENTY ENOUGH to at 18 million per MWC team to get top 5 MWC teams(90 Mil), and have 160 mil left over, which is plenty enough to run conference, get some money for WSU, OSU, etc.

Then WSU would only have to get 1 more team. And that could be CAL, from a destroyed ACC, or SMU from destroyed ACC, or Memphis, or Tulane, or UTSA(San Antonio, TX), or get NDSU.

That, those things would either probably cost nothing, or about 7 mul to 12 mil to 17 mil, and would still have about 145 to 160 mil, which still enough to run everything, etc.

And if did that and had WSU, OSU, Cal, BSU, Fresno St, SDSU, UNLV, Airforce(or CSU), Memphis or Tulane or UTSA or NDSU, that would be worth about 16 to 18 to 20 to 22 mil per team per year. THATS BETTER THEN THE ONLY ABOUT 7 TO 9 TO 11 MILL THAT GET FROM REVERSE MERGING WHOLE ENTIRE MWC INTO PAC

Then currently PAC 2 gets 3.6 mil from CFP. that will probably jump to about 4.3 to 4.5 to 4.7 mil if whole MWC merges to PAC, and after 2028.

If it happens the way I outlined above, PAC will probably get 6 to 8 to 10 mil per year from CFP. That's MORE then PAC get from MWC join PAC.

Then the PAC, as outlined above would get MORE MONEY FROM BETTER BOWLS THEN THE MWC IDAHO POTATO HEAD BOWL AND LA BOWL that the PAC would get from MWC, joining PAC.

MOST DONT WANT TO SEE BOTTOM DWELLERS, SO THATS WHY A CONFERENCE WITH THE BEST TEAMS FROM MWC GETS MORE MONEY THEN A CONFERENCE TAKING WHOLE MWC, INCLUDING THE BOTTOM DWELLERS.

So Best MWC teams PAC would get about 8 mil more per team per year from media. That 64 mil per year MORE + 3.5 mil MORE per year from CFP.(In about 20 years, that almost pays for the 90 mil spent on teams by that alone) + about 2.5 mil MORE per year from BETTER BOWLS.

IN 2 TO 4 TO 6 YEARS THE BEST MWC TEAMS PAC 8+ WOULD ABOUT DOUBLE THE 225 to 250 mil that it has now, and ABOUT 1.67 TIMES THE AMOUNT THAT THE WHOLE MWC JOIN PAC would get.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. AND A BEST MWC TEAMS PAC GETS MORE MONEY THEN A WHOLE MWC PAC, AND YOU HAVE TO INVEST MONEY TO MAKE THAT MORE MONEY, AND ITS WORTH DOING FOR MORE MONEY.

And it would still be a primarily western half of USA conference, even tho ACC teams might join LATER, as a EAST DIVISION. And Travel would still be ok.

And the Best MWC teams PAC would be a hybrid G5/P4,5 semi power conference, with more prestige=usually equals MORE MONEY(If Smart(Not Scott, etc), with 1 semi guaranteed 1 of 12 CFP spot to 10-2, 11-1 Champion, better then going 11-1, 12-0 in whole MWC PAC, and still have a 12-0 AAC Champ, get the 1 G5 CFP spot, over the 11-1, 12-0 Whole MWC PAC champ.

And the Best MWC teams PAC would get 1 January Bowl, Holiday, Alamo, Las Vegas, Sun Bowl, WHICH PAY MORE MONEY, BETTER BOWLS THEN THE WHOLE MWC PAC's IDAHO POTATO HEAD BOWL, LA BOWL.

The PAC 2 IS NOT GOING TO SPEND ALL ITS MONEY. But the PAC DOES HAVE TO, SHOULD SPEND, INVEST A LIITLE TO SOME OF ITS MONEY TO INVEST, GET BIGGER, BETTER, BE THE BEST IT CAN BE IN ORDER TO HAVE THE MOST MONEY POSSIBLE.

THE PAC 2 SHOULD NOT HOARD, AND NOT SPEND EVERY LAST PENNY, UNLESS it does not have enough money. AND 250 MIL IS ENOUGH MONEY, AND ABOUT 95 MIL OUT OF THAT 250 MIL WHICH IS ENOUGH TO AFFORD 95 MIL, AND 95 MIL IS NOT TOO MUCH MONEY TO INVEST TO MAKE MORE MONEY, etc.

ALMOST EVERYBODY, EXPERTS, MEDIA, MOST WSU FANS, ETC, GET, UNDERSTAND THAT, WANT PAC 2 TO GRAB THE BEST MWC TEAMS POSSIBLE AND LEAVE THE REST BEHIND, IN ORDER TO HAVE THE BEST PAC POSSIBLE AND MAKE THE MOST MONEY POSSIBLE.

The PAC 2 will only join the MWC, or have the MWC join PAC, as ULTIMATE EXTREME LAST RESORT, AFTER IF EVERYTHING ELSE, ALL OTHER OPTIONS, POSSIBILITIES, FAIL, IF FAIL.

I'm promising myself not to get sucked in to this thread very far. Tried to weed through Mik's post and hit the most outlandish pieces, but that proved to be difficult.

So we will just cherry pick

• The guesstimated $250 million is going to go away in a hurry if we are not careful. WSU has already dipped into our half to balance FY24, and is budgeting $38M to balance FY25. Then there is the payout to the MW and WCC for the affiliation agreements
• So you have added UTSA and NDSU (are we talking Div 1-AA North Dakota State?) to your dream team of nobody programs that will double our media rights values over a reverse merger?
• Beyond that, Mik, you are just making up and throwing out ridiculous numbers. I thought your medical scare might cure you of that.

All - WSU and OSU were Pac-12 bottom feeders. We got dumped. The rest of our former league, and the rest of the P4, do not want us. But we want to sit on our illusory throne and determine which MW bottom feeders we don't want, while preparing to spend almost half of our nest egg to lure the ones we do want? Oh and flesh out the league with other G5's that the P4 doesn't want.

 

[dgibbons]

The funniest thing would be the "Pac 2" blowing up the Mountain West and leaving a handful of teams without a conference - oh the irony.

My bet would be Cal and Stanford get the B1G invite and get something like a 25% cut

Wishful thinking. uw will continue as the revenue cellar dweller.

 

[BowDown253]

Wishful thinking. uw will continue as the revenue cellar dweller.

UW starting at 50+ mil per year (30 mil per + 21 CFP share) - current Mountain West at 4 mil. OUCH!

Considering even some reformed "Pac" will get you to maybe 10 mil per I would say calling UW a "revenue cellar dwellar" is hilarious.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

WSU will be apples to apples in their conference. uw will be at a considerable disadvantage in their conference, well behind Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers…. In income, which in the B1G will translate into a lower tier team…. Instead of arguing about it come back in 3-5 years to confirm that the huskies are irrelevant in their new conference.

 

[CougPatrol]

As I've said time and time again, when the dust settles, the new hierarchy is going to largely resemble to old hierarchy.

The super conference bluebloods are going to remain elite. The group of programs just outside of the bluebloods like Oregon, UW, Wisconsin, Tennessee, etc. are going to see the occasional dream season, but their valleys are going to be very dark. When these "almost" programs suffer coaching turnover or lose their locker rooms to the portal, they're going to suffer on the field, as their conferences have so many bigtime programs.

In some respects, the upper crust of the G5 may be able to sustain more consistent performance than the middle and lower tier superconference programs. Money matters, but so too does winning games. The Gonzaga's, SDSU's, Boise State's, of the world can attest to that. WSU doesn't have to punch at the SEC level to be a sustainable, fun program to play for.

If WSU is consistently competing for conference championships in whatever G5ish league we're playing in, our fans will turn out in similar numbers to where they always have. Our 2025 home schedule will include Idaho, Boise State, UW, Fresno State, SDSU, and Oregon State. All of those opponents (including Idaho) will travel as many or more fans to Pullman than the Stanfords, Cals, Arizonas, ASUs, USCs, UCLAs, Arizonas, ASUs, Utahs, and Colorados of our former P12 life.

50% of the P12 fanbases generally sucked. Outside of the money issue, which is hard to dismiss, playing conference games against those opponents was nothing to write home about.

 

[BowDown253]

WSU will be apples to apples in their conference. uw will be at a considerable disadvantage in their conference, well behind Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Rutgers…. In income, which in the B1G will translate into a lower tier team…. Instead of arguing about it come back in 3-5 years to confirm that the huskies are irrelevant in their new conference.

We were already making less - so nothing has changed. How have all those teams you listed done with their extra money? You can hope all you want for Washington's failure, but you're going to continue to be disappointed.

 

[Coug90]

We were already making less - so nothing has changed. How have all those teams you listed done with their extra money? You can hope all you want for Washington's failure, but you're going to continue to be disappointed.

lol. After getting their asses handed to them in the NCG in a year they could (should) have dropped 3-4 games including the AC, the coach bails, the entire team bails, two ADs bail, and they limp into a conference that’s historically handed them their ass when there WASN’T a huge financial and geographical disadvantage.

We have no idea what’s going to happen w WSU, lots of uncertainty to be sure. I can say with no need for hope that UW is already failing and has a mediocre (at best) decade in its future.

The purple dipshits who think they are gonna dominate the Big 10 are the same ones who thought Jimmy Lake was going to take Pete’s success to the next level and thought young Huard was going to shred us in the AC.

You have a few more months of offseason natty chest thumping, then we won’t see you for another 10 years or so. We’ll try to show some disappointment for you until then.

 

[Wazzubrooz]

We were already making less - so nothing has changed. How have all those teams you listed done with their extra money? You can hope all you want for Washington's failure, but you're going to continue to be disappointed.

I know I won’t be and you’ll be gone, too embarrassed to come back and talk trash, cuz you’ll be trash in the B1G.

 

[BiggsCoug]

We were already making less - so nothing has changed. How have all those teams you listed done with their extra money? You can hope all you want for Washington's failure, but you're going to continue to be disappointed.

What do you think of Jedd?

 

[Flatlandcoug]

We were already making less - so nothing has changed. How have all those teams you listed done with their extra money? You can hope all you want for Washington's failure, but you're going to continue to be disappointed.

It was covered above...but what has changed in the past five months is that your team has been gutted by graduation and you no longer have the coach that led to your success. Chris Peterson...one of the better coaches in the history of college football....brought UW back out of the dregs but Jimmy Lake quickly proved that he hadn't actually created a top tier program where just any coach could experience success.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

It was covered above...but what has changed in the past five months is that your team has been gutted by graduation and you no longer have the coach that led to your success. Chris Peterson...one of the better coaches in the history of college football....brought UW back out of the dregs but Jimmy Lake quickly proved that he hadn't actually created a top tier program where just any coach could experience success.

Let's see - the last 4 posts have all FED THE TROLL! WTF is wrong with you guys? I'm going to post this every g-damn time one of you feeds it.

 

[moxeecoug]

Let's see - the last 4 posts have all FED THE TROLL! WTF is wrong with you guys? I'm going to post this every g-damn time one of you feeds it.

I agree. He brings absolutely nothing to the table beyond put-downs of WSU and driving the knife in further about our situation. Ignore the troll and like any pest, he will go away.

 

[BowDown253]

What do you think of Jedd?

He gives a good interview that's for sure. I'm actually a fan of some of his brutally honest answers about the current state of college football etc. He had a lot of success in a short stint at Arizona, but it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that here. There's a lot of talk about him bouncing to Florida whenever that opens up, but the only way I see that happening is if he is equally as successful here. Are we going to be as good as the last 2 years? Obviously not. As the draft has and will continue to prove - those teams were loaded with talent. I am intrigued at what happens at the qb position and could see Williams leaping Rogers for the starting job either before or during the season. Lots of work to be done on both lines still - hoping we can get a transfer or 2 before the spring portal closes. I'd say 7-5 would be a honest prediction for next year - maybe if the line ends up more solid than it currently looks 8-4. I don't think there is really that much pressure on Fisch though considering the wild circumstances.

 

[BowDown253]

It was covered above...but what has changed in the past five months is that your team has been gutted by graduation and you no longer have the coach that led to your success. Chris Peterson...one of the better coaches in the history of college football....brought UW back out of the dregs but Jimmy Lake quickly proved that he hadn't actually created a top tier program where just any coach could experience success.

How many programs are there where any coach could experience success? Less than 10 for sure, maybe only 5 realistically. I don't think Jedd will be here long term - if he's successful then he will end up in Florida or the NFL and if he sucks he'll be gone within a few years. We've had great coaches and shit coaches, but we always bounce back. I've watched enough season to just go with the flow and know teams like last years are more of a once a decade thing than an every season expectation.

 

[BowDown253]

I know I won’t be and you’ll be gone, too embarrassed to come back and talk trash, cuz you’ll be trash in the B1G.

You've hoped for that your entire life and yet you keep getting disappointed. Within the next decade there will be a super league and a little more balance to everything so all the travel etc. will work itself out. Gotta have a seat at the big boys table if you want to compete though.

 

[CougPatrol]

You've hoped for that your entire life and yet you keep getting disappointed. Within the next decade there will be a super league and a little more balance to everything so all the travel etc. will work itself out. Gotta have a seat at the big boys table if you want to compete though.

That's just it, I don't want a seat at the big boys table. I have professional sports for that. College football (and basketball) have always appealed to me because of the David vs. Goliath subplots. Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Boise State beating Oklahoma. Montana beating UW. Idaho beating WSU.

A 48 program super league does absolutely nothing for me, and I mean that transparently. When the super league is formed, it's going to fracture collegiate sports. The remaining programs are going to break off and form their own league. Without local, regional rivalries, the passion just won't be there; and that's especially true out West.

 

[UberCougars]

Let's see - the last 4 posts have all FED THE TROLL! WTF is wrong with you guys? I'm going to post this every g-damn time one of you feeds it.

Hall monitor is triggered again.

 

[BowDown253]

That's just it, I don't want a seat at the big boys table. I have professional sports for that. College football (and basketball) have always appealed to me because of the David vs. Goliath subplots. Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Boise State beating Oklahoma. Montana beating UW. Idaho beating WSU.

A 48 program super league does absolutely nothing for me, and I mean that transparently. When the super league is formed, it's going to fracture collegiate sports. The remaining programs are going to break off and form their own league. Without local, regional rivalries, the passion just won't be there; and that's especially true out West.

I agree that the entire situation is a complete mess right now and the ineptitude of Pac leadership over the last decade has been atrocious. They keep getting ratings though. I know the financial implications of what's happening are brutal for WSU and OSU, but I think they will end up with a potentially more enjoyable product in the end. Playing in the MW might not be glamorous, but I think it does fit both of the universities much better than trying to compete with USC, UO, UW, etc. I think there are so many programs caught up in this strange dream of competing on a national level which is completely delusional. In one of Jedd's first interviews he spoke about how everyone thinks they are national title contenders, but in reality there are maybe 15 teams that ever have a chance - and he's right. The overwhelming majority of them will always be won by Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, USC (even though they have been down lately) etc. - and the rest will be split between the next 8-10 biggest programs. It makes zero sense for schools like WSU to try and spend like crazy to compete with these schools and chase some dream of making the CFP. FWIW - I've been to games in Montana and Wyoming and they are awesome. They play with what they've got and it's a great product and an awesome atmosphere.

 

[Loyal Coug1]

That's just it, I don't want a seat at the big boys table. I have professional sports for that. College football (and basketball) have always appealed to me because of the David vs. Goliath subplots. Appalachian State winning at Michigan. Boise State beating Oklahoma. Montana beating UW. Idaho beating WSU.

A 48 program super league does absolutely nothing for me, and I mean that transparently. When the super league is formed, it's going to fracture collegiate sports. The remaining programs are going to break off and form their own league. Without local, regional rivalries, the passion just won't be there; and that's especially true out West.

STOP FEEDING THE TROLL!

 

[BiggsCoug]

He gives a good interview that's for sure. I'm actually a fan of some of his brutally honest answers about the current state of college football etc. He had a lot of success in a short stint at Arizona, but it remains to be seen if he can duplicate that here. There's a lot of talk about him bouncing to Florida whenever that opens up, but the only way I see that happening is if he is equally as successful here. Are we going to be as good as the last 2 years? Obviously not. As the draft has and will continue to prove - those teams were loaded with talent. I am intrigued at what happens at the qb position and could see Williams leaping Rogers for the starting job either before or during the season. Lots of work to be done on both lines still - hoping we can get a transfer or 2 before the spring portal closes. I'd say 7-5 would be a honest prediction for next year - maybe if the line ends up more solid than it currently looks 8-4. I don't think there is really that much pressure on Fisch though considering the wild circumstances.

Looking at his resume… it’s a lot of assistant to assistant jobs. He has 20 yrs in coaching and maybe 5 actually on the field leading a position. Then he lands a head job. It made me wonder who he had photos of.

He got the jump on the Pac 12 with NIL. He took like 12 of the top 75 kids in CA coming off a terrible season. Including the #1 player. How does a coach from a school with that bad a season walk into high schools and even get to speak to a kid like that? So he did something right there.

I think he works NIL and people well. And maybe that will be enough in what college football has become. Coming off a national title appearance I thought the uw could have found someone with a stronger head coaching resume. Im curious who was second in the race.

 

[Coug90]

Looking at his resume… it’s a lot of assistant to assistant jobs. He has 20 yrs in coaching and maybe 5 actually on the field leading a position. Then he lands a head job. It made me wonder who he had photos of.

He got the jump on the Pac 12 with NIL. He took like 12 of the top 75 kids in CA coming off a terrible season. Including the #1 player. How does a coach from a school with that bad a season walk into high schools and even get to speak to a kid like that? So he did something right there.

I think he works NIL and people well. And maybe that will be enough in what college football has become. Coming off a national title appearance I thought the uw could have found someone with a stronger head coaching resume. Im curious who was second in the race.

Said a lot that he couldn’t pull the top kids from Zona with him. I don’t think he’s deciding to go anywhere in 2-3 years because no top tier program is going to go after a coach that’s sub .500 in conference.

 

[UberCougars]

Fisch will be an NFL head coach after his 2 year speed bump at UW.

His NIL fund at UW is second to none. (his big AZ secret advantage)

He has the hottest young coaches in the country.

Daddy’s Carroll and Belecheck are both highly vested in UW’s success this year and next.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

How many programs are there where any coach could experience success? Less than 10 for sure, maybe only 5 realistically. I don't think Jedd will be here long term - if he's successful then he will end up in Florida or the NFL and if he sucks he'll be gone within a few years. We've had great coaches and shit coaches, but we always bounce back. I've watched enough season to just go with the flow and know teams like last years are more of a once a decade thing than an every season expectation.

The Huskies fired Lambright, Neuheisal, Gilbertson, and Willingham after the RV salesman left. Things were so bad that Sarkisian winning eight games was considered a big deal by USC and worthy of hiring him away. Jimmy Lake got canned immediately. Even without the money disadvantage that you'll now face, UW has had only one coach who didn't fail or get pulled away by a more prestigious program. WSU sits lower in the football world than UW...but the sad reality for you delusional f#ckers is that you are closer to UW than you are to Michigan or Ohio State. Peterson and DeBoer did put together a few nice seasons...but those were the exceptions rather than the rule. UW has made it a tradition to hire crappy coaches and firing them.

And apologies to Loyal...I just enjoy talking trash at dipsh!t mutt fans.

 

[Stretch 74]

The Huskies fired Lambright, Neuheisal, Gilbertson, and Willingham after the RV salesman left. Things were so bad that Sarkisian winning eight games was considered a big deal by USC and worthy of hiring him away. Jimmy Lake got canned immediately. Even without the money disadvantage that you'll now face, UW has had only one coach who didn't fail or get pulled away by a more prestigious program. WSU sits lower in the football world than UW...but the sad reality for you delusional f#ckers is that you are closer to UW than you are to Michigan or Ohio State. Peterson and DeBoer did put together a few nice seasons...but those were the exceptions rather than the rule. UW has made it a tradition to hire crappy coaches and firing them.

And apologies to Loyal...I just enjoy talking trash at dipsh!t mutt fans.

Did you mean to type WSU instead of the capitalized uw? If not, I don't understand your point there. How can the uw be closer to themselves?

 

[triscuit one]

Wisconsin?

 

[Stretch 74]

Wisconsin?

I did consider that, but thought that if picking a Big 10/12/14/16/18/34 team that Northwestern or Rutgers would have been better choices. Just seemed to be one of those brain cramps where your fingers get slightly out of synch with your brain waves.

 

[Flatlandcoug]

Did you mean to type WSU instead of the capitalized uw? If not, I don't understand your point there. How can the uw be closer to themselves?

Doh!

Yes.....I did mean WSU but they are also closer to Wisconsin than Ohio State and Michigan....particularly today's Wisconsin program. The Badgers have gone 27-19 in the past four seasons. 7-5 on average seems about right for the mutts.

 

[Coug90]

The Huskies fired Lambright, Neuheisal, Gilbertson, and Willingham after the RV salesman left. Things were so bad that Sarkisian winning eight games was considered a big deal by USC and worthy of hiring him away. Jimmy Lake got canned immediately. Even without the money disadvantage that you'll now face, UW has had only one coach who didn't fail or get pulled away by a more prestigious program. WSU sits lower in the football world than UW...but the sad reality for you delusional f#ckers is that you are closer to UW than you are to Michigan or Ohio State. Peterson and DeBoer did put together a few nice seasons...but those were the exceptions rather than the rule. UW has made it a tradition to hire crappy coaches and firing them.

And apologies to Loyal...I just enjoy talking trash at dipsh!t mutt fans.

I don’t even think it’s that they hire crappy coaches. Take out the last few James years and Peterson and you have a historically mediocre program. Jim Lambright IS the norm not some underperforming coach. That’s what they’ve been. I think Peterson left because as much as he won he still wasn’t appreciated.

Their outlier years are shrouded with scandal, no surprise we find out they had a kid playing with rape charges pending last year. Aside from that ALL the stars aligned for them last year (like they did with the Cougs in ‘97 for ex)

They aren’t a top tier program. Never have been. They think they are because of a few outlier years. And they don’t think what happened to Nebraska (who was a true top tier program) can happen to them? Lmfao. They are about to find out and it’s going to be F’ing glorious.

 

[BowDown253]

I don’t even think it’s that they hire crappy coaches. Take out the last few James years and Peterson and you have a historically mediocre program. Jim Lambright IS the norm not some underperforming coach. That’s what they’ve been. I think Peterson left because as much as he won he still wasn’t appreciated.

Their outlier years are shrouded with scandal, no surprise we find out they had a kid playing with rape charges pending last year. Aside from that ALL the stars aligned for them last year (like they did with the Cougs in ‘97 for ex)

They aren’t a top tier program. Never have been. They think they are because of a few outlier years. And they don’t think what happened to Nebraska (who was a true top tier program) can happen to them? Lmfao. They are about to find out and it’s going to be F’ing glorious.

Historically mediocre you say? Let's take a look -

Washington Huskies football historical record 775-466-50

Washington State Cougars football historical record 579-581-45

One of those is definitely mediocre damn near to the number

 

[Stretch 74]

Doh!

Yes.....I did mean WSU but they are also closer to Wisconsin than Ohio State and Michigan....particularly today's Wisconsin program. The Badgers have gone 27-19 in the past four seasons. 7-5 on average seems about right for the mutts.

I thought so. I hate when I do that myself.